7 Interesting Advanced Fantasy Metric Stats For Week 9
Advanced Fantasy Metrics
This article will tell you about seven must-read advanced stats you should know about as we approach Sunday's Week 9 slate of NFL action. The advanced metrics that FantasyData provides our subscribers are not the end all be all. They are very useful at helping you better understand matchups and make the best possible lineup decision.
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Matthew Stafford's Number of Deep Ball Passing Attempts (48)
Stafford completed 25 of 32 passes for 342 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception in the Lions win over the Giants. He's averaging 35.7 pass attempts, 299 passing yards, 375.7 air yards, 2.3 touchdowns, and 0.6 interceptions per game this season. Stafford currently leads all quarterbacks in deep-ball passing attempts. He also ranks in fifth in our money throws advanced metric. This is a pass requiring exceptional skill or athleticism as well as critical throws executed in clutch moments. Stafford also has the sixth-highest true passer rating (106.6). This rating factors out unpressured throwaways and dropped passes. Stafford is still having a productive season in spite of his receivers ranking near the bottom of the NFL in target separation. He is someone I recommended in my Start 'Em Sit 'Em column.
Stafford's averaging 6.2 passing fantasy points per game more than expected this season. He currently ranks 19th in expected points and sixth in fantasy points over expectation at the quarterback position. Stafford's finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback four times this season. He and the Lions travel to Oakland to face the Raiders this week. The Raiders defense has faced Watson, Rodgers, Chase Daniel, Brissett, and Cousins over the last five games. This batch of quarterbacks averaged 33.4 pass attempts, 22.6 completions, 275.6 passing yards, 2.8 passing touchdowns, 0.6 interceptions, and 26.76 fantasy points per game against Oakland. Stafford has enough playmakers at every skill position to thrive in this matchup. We have him projected to finish Week 9 as the QB4. Stafford has a very high ceiling and floor against the Raiders.
Stafford is quietly in the midst of his best statistical season from an efficiency perspective. He's on pace for career-highs in yards per attempt, yards per completion, touchdown rate, and true passer rating. Stafford can be viewed as a QB1 in Week 9 and a perfect target for those streaming the quarterback position.
The Target Separation (2.08) of Aaron Rodgers' Receivers
Rodgers completed 23 of 33 passes for 306 yards and three touchdowns in the Packers win over the Chiefs last week. He's playing at an MVP level. The Packers offense got off to a slow start under new head coach Matt LaFleur, but Green Bay has imposed their will on defenses in recent weeks. The Packers receivers are currently tied for the second-highest target separation in the NFL. This statistic is even more impressive considering Green Bay has missed Davante Adams for weeks. Rodgers has caught fire over the last two games throwing three or more touchdowns in each. In eight games he's averaged 35.4 pass attempts, 290.5 passing yards, 292.4 air yards, two touchdowns, 0.2 interceptions, and nearly 19 fantasy points per game. The future Hall of Fame quarterback is on pace for 4,650 passing yards and 32 touchdowns. Rodgers currently has the fourth-highest true passer rating (112.2) and the second-most pass attempts (49) in the red zone. His stock continues to trend up with Adams expected to return in the very near future.
Christian McCaffrey's Snap Share (98.1%) and Opportunity Share (89.7%)
The only bright spot in the Panthers offense in their Week 8 loss to the 49ers was Christian McCaffrey. He rushed 14 times for 117 yards and a touchdown. McCaffrey also had four receptions for 38 receiving yards. He ranks second in snap share, first in opportunity share, fifth in rushing attempts (141) and third in targets (49). McCaffrey continues to be a matchup-proof RB1. Opportunity share is the percentage of the total team running back carries plus targets. McCaffrey's averaging 27.3 opportunities per game. This statistic is made up of 20.3 rushing attempts and 7.1 targets. No other running back has higher total fantasy points over expectation than McCaffrey. He's averaging 7.5 fantasy points per game more than expected. Dalvin Cook (5.9) has the second-highest total fantasy points over expectation. The Panthers offensive line is ranked 23rd in Adjusted Line Yards and first in Open Field Yards according to Football Outsiders. A team with a low ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a high ranking in Open Field Yards is heavily dependent on it's running back breaking long runs to make the running game work. McCaffrey ranks second with nine breakaway runs according to our advanced metrics. These are runs 15 yards or greater.
When someone asks if you’d consider trading Christian McCaffrey in your fantasy league. pic.twitter.com/cbN72lxab8
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 30, 2019
McCaffrey is one of the few players I would not be open to trading unless you receive a truly ridiculous offer. He's going to be on a high number of championship teams this season.
Miles Sanders Number of Rushing Attempts (66) Against Light Defensive Fronts (66.7%)
Sanders rushed three times for 74 yards and one touchdown in the Eagles win over the Bills last week. He caught all three of his targets for 44 yards. Sanders' usage as a receiver out of the backfield has been consistent all season with DeSean Jackson and Darren Sproles out. It is interesting to see a high percentage of his rushing attempts coming against defensive fronts with six or fewer defenders in the box. Sanders is currently averaging only 11.2 opportunities per game with positive total fantasy points over expectation. He's averaging 2.2 fantasy points per game more than expected. Jordan Howard will continue to see a high number of touches per game in the near future, but Sanders can be viewed as a weekly RB3 or flex option. Here are some other intriguing stats that Reuben Frank who covers the Eagles for NBC Sports Philadelphia wrote about recently.
- Miles Sanders’ 851 all-purpose yards are second-most ever by an Eagle in his first eight games. DeSean Jackson had 888 in 2008. Sanders is on pace to break the franchise record of 1,579 set in 1985 by Herman Hunter. Jackson had 1,460 in 2008.
- With 568 yards from scrimmage, Sanders is on pace for 1,136 this year, which would break the franchise rookie record of 1,008, set in 2008 by DeSean Jackson
- Sanders piled up 118 yards from scrimmage on just six touches Sunday in Buffalo. That’s the third-most yards in NFL history by a rookie running back on six or fewer touches behind only Carroll Hardy of the 49ers in 1955 against the Packers (122) and Jimmy Thomas of the 49ers against the Saints in 1969 (119).
- Sanders has eight plays from scrimmage of at least 25 yards, more than Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, Larry Fitzgerald, Adam Thielen, Michael Thomas, JuJu Smith-Schuster or DeAndre Hopkins.
Sanders is averaging 0.95 fantasy points per opportunity and someone I recommend acquiring in trades. If given additional opportunities he has the potential to be a late-season difference-maker.
Josh Jacobs Yards Created (255)
Jacobs currently ranks eighth in yards created. This advanced metric measures all yards above and beyond what was blocked. Yards created are generated by the runner after the first evaded tackle. Jacobs also currently ranks eighth in our juke rate (31.1%) metric. It isolates a running back's on-field elusiveness and tackle-breaking power by dividing the total number of evaded tackles by the total number of touches. Jacobs also ranks seventh in breakaway runs (7). He's averaging 19.7 opportunities per game this season with positive total fantasy points of expectation. The 24th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft is on pace for over 1,400 rushing yards and has not fumbled this season.
No tricks, all treats for No. 28 this month:
— Oakland Raiders (@Raiders) October 31, 2019
• Averaged 104.3 rushing yards per game
• Averaged 5.0 yards per carry
• Back-to-back games with 120 yards rushing @IAM_JoshJacobs is the AFC Offensive Rookie of the Month: https://t.co/hvnQ5rBiVl pic.twitter.com/ZPqx6TB6UW
Jacobs and the Raiders face a Lions defense this week that has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards (130.7) per game. He also has a favorable rest of season schedule and is one running back I'd be very open to acquiring at his current asking price in trades.
Stefon Diggs Yards Per Pass Route (4.12)
Diggs leads all wide receivers in this advanced metric. He caught all seven targets for 143 yards in the Vikings win over the Redskins last week. Diggs has averaged an insane 8.7 targets, seven receptions, 150.7 receiving yards, 148.3 air yards, and a touchdown per game over his last three. He is now tied with Randy Moss for the Vikings franchise record with three consecutive games with 140 or more receiving yards according to Pro Football Reference. He also joins 15 other players in NFL history to ever achieve this feat. Diggs' on pace for over 1,400 receiving yards after a very slow start to the season and averaging 2.64 fantasy points per target. He is averaging 6.7 receiving fantasy points per game more than expected this season. Diggs is a player that I'd continue to hold in fantasy leagues considering the Vikings schedule the rest of the season, especially during the fantasy playoffs.
Mark Andrew's Hog Rate (24%)
Andrews leads all tight ends in Hog Rate. This advanced metric captures the rate of passing game utilization on a per play basis by calculating the number of targets per snap. Hog rate helps to identify wide receivers and tight ends with limited route trees that may have a low snap count and target share, but when they are on the field, they are a focal point of the passing offense. Andrews' snap share is 47.8 percent. He's averaging 7.9 targets, 5.1 receptions, 64.1 receiving yards, 75.4 air yards, and 0.4 touchdowns per game this season. Andrew's foot and shoulder injuries have cooled down a hot start to the season. He also recently dealt with a high number of drops. Hopefully, the bye week provided Andrews' additional time to address those injuries. The 23-year old tight end leads the team in receptions (36) and receiving yards (449) and is tied for the team lead in touchdowns (3). Andrews is an intriguing trade target for fantasy teams looking to address the position for the rest of the season.
Conclusion
FantasyData has a wealth of statistical information available to you at your fingertips. Do you ever wonder how to weave all of the information together in order to make informed decisions for your fantasy football team? That's the purpose behind the Advanced Metrics series that Jody Smith and I are writing this season. One way to approach any decision in fantasy football is to analyze two things. The first one revolves around the narrative. What are NFL Insiders, beat writers, and coaches saying. The second one revolves around the statistics, metrics, and other data. Take a moment to think of a piano. You can play music with one hand, but once you use both hands the music is even better. You should have the same mindset when it comes to managing your fantasy football team.
Please read my Start 'Em Sit 'Em column to help get ready for Week 9. If you have additional questions you can also refer to my fantasy football rankings or better yet reach out to me on Twitter for an immediate response (@EricNMoody). Thanks for reading and please sign up for FantasyData Premium.
Eric Moody
Eric Moody is a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). His writing has been featured at FantasyPros, Gridiron Experts, RotoViz, and TwoQBs. He has a lifelong passion for the game and even played at the collegiate level as an offensive lineman. Eric also participated in Dan Hatman's Scouting Academy in order to learn the process of player evaluation at an NFL level. When Eric provides advice, he uses game film, analytics, and statistics to help you understand his perspective. He enjoys time with his family, Netflix, music, bass guitar, and coffee