NFL Pick'em Week 9: Man vs. Machine
NFL Pick'em Week 9
We had ourselves one hell of a week last week! The winning percentages were crazy high amongst most analysts last week as favorites went 13-2 straight up, leaving little room for upsets. I personally had one of my best weeks all-time going 15-0 in straight-up picks which tied with Kalyn Kahler of Sports Illustrated and Gregg Rosenthal of NFL Network as the only analysts out of 77 featured at Tallysight to do so. As for my weekly battle with Betting Antelope's predictive picking machine, I am proud to say that they didn't stand a chance! I went 19-7 (73%) combined in picks combining against the spread and over/under while the machine respectively went 14-9 (61%).
The only picks I missed last week were taking the Lions at -6.5, the Giants kept that game closer than anticipated. I missed Texans/Raiders O/U (51.5). I took the over and the final was a score of 27-24, exactly 51 points. I also took the Cardinals +10 and they got blown out 31-9. I knew they would lose but I thought they would put up a little more of a fight than that. Their winning streak prior to that game loses more credibility as it was against three weak teams. I completely missed the 49ers/Panthers blowout game. The numbers all pointed towards a competitive and potentially low-scoring game there. The 49ers demolished the Panthers 51-13, covering the over (42.5) all on their own (I took the under) and rendering the Panthers +6 useless. The Colts/Broncos game was another head-scratcher that saw both myself and the machine miss our picks of Colts -5.5 and over 43. The Colts could barely beat out a struggling Broncos team 15-13.
On the season, my battle with the machine took a turn with my dominant Week 8 performance as I now have a record of 111-105 (51.4%) overall this season with the machine sitting at 100-100 (50%). When looking at weekly head-to-head matchups, man has the edge 5-3. Prior to last week, the machine had kept the slight edge when looking at overall season records, so it will be interesting if I can keep this edge as we enter the second half of the season.
In case this is your first time reading this column, here is a quick recap of what we are doing with our weekly pick'em coverage. We have partnered up with the folks over at Betting Antelope who will be providing "the machine" aspect of our weekly pick'em. If you're unfamiliar with their product, Betting Antelope is an impressive machine learning model powered by SportsData.io and designed to predict moneyline, against the spread, over/under, and total team wins for NFL games. The model ingests data and trains itself each week as the season goes on, optimizing profitability by using a combination of regression and decision tree models to make picks. So this season, it's my research, opinions, and instincts vs. the machine.
Now that we have recapped the season thus far, let's take a look at our picks for Week 9!
For more info see FantasyData's Latest NFL Odds page here.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-1.5) (London)
Matchup Notes:
- The Texans have won their last three games against the Jags and nine of their last 11.
- These teams last met in Week 2 of this season where the Texans won 13-12.
- In their last meeting, Gardner Minshew threw for 213 yards with one TD and took four sacks, DJ Chark went 7-55-1.
- In their last meeting, Deshaun Watson threw for just 159 yards with no TDs and took four sacks, Carlos Hyde had 20 carries for 90 yards.
- The Texans are 0-1 in international games, this is their first game in London.
- The Jags are 3-3 in international games.
- Deshaun Watson has only thrown for over 160 yards against the Jags once in four career games. He only has two career passing TDs against them and none in his last two games against them. He has two career rushing TDs against them.
- DeAndre Hopkins has five TDs in 13 career games against the Jags and has been held under 60 yards seven times.
- The Jaguars have averaged 21.6 PPG this season.
- The Texans have allowed 23.5 PPG this season.
- The Texans have averaged 26.5 PPG this season.
- The Jaguars have allowed 20.4 PPG this season but just 15 PPG over their last three games.
The Jaguars handled the Jets easily last week taking the lead in the first quarter and never looking back. Gardner Minshew continued to impress putting up 279 yards and three TDs, finding three different receivers for TDs (Conley, Chark, and Cole). Leonard Fournette stayed hot putting up 136 yards from scrimmage in the contest. The Jags barely lost to the Texans earlier this season and have a history of being able to hold Deshaun Watson in check. The Jags have also had some success overseas putting up 30 points or more in three of their six games in London, though this unit of players has virtually no experience there.
The Texans struggled to keep a healthy defense on the field last week as we saw J.J. Watt leave the game with a season-ending injury. Cornerback Lonnie Johnson also left the game with a concussion after the team was already without Jonathan Joseph and Bradley Roby. Despite all of this, the team still snuck away with a win against the Raiders 27-24 but failed to cover the -6.5-point spread given to them. Deshaun Watson was in spectacular form and found his All-Pro wideout, DeAndre Hopkins, for 11 catches and 109 yards. A surprise from the Texans on offense this season also has been the heavy involvement of both tight ends Darren Fells and Jordan Akins. It was Fells' turn last week as he caught all six of his targets for 58 yards and two TDs. The Texans running game also continued to look more effective without Lamar Miller as the do-it-all back this season as both Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson remained heavily involved and production. Johnson went 4-33-1 in the passing game. As mentioned above, the Jags have done a good job containing Watson and Hopkins in the past and as recently as Week 2 of this season.
I think the Texans bring a little more momentum into this game and should be able to put more points on the board than they did against the Jags earlier this season. The problem is their defense is in shambles and the Jags have been a pretty consistent offense outside of their six-point game against the Saints. The Jags defense also hasn't allowed more than 17 points in the last three weeks and their history against Watson makes me think they have a real shot at stealing a win here.
My Final Prediction: Jaguars win 24-21
My Pick: Jaguars +1.5, Under 47
Machine Pick: Texans -1.5, Push
Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
Matchup Notes:
- Josh Allen has averaged just 6.7 yards per attempt this season -- tied for 2nd lowest of 27 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 7.4
- The Bills have run 42 plays in the red zone this season -- 3rd fewest in NFL
- The Bills defensive line has missed 26 tackles this season -- most in NFL
- The Bills defense has allowed 144 completions this season -- 4th fewest in NFL
- Case Keenum has been pressured on 28.0% of plays this season -- 2nd highest of 28 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 21.7%
- The Redskins have faced a blitz 62 times this season -- 3rd fewest in NFL
- The Redskins WRs have 10 receptions for 20+ yards this season -- tied for fewest in NFL
- The Bills have won six of their last seven games against the Redskins.
- The Redskins have averaged 12.4 PPG this season -- third-fewest in NFL.
- The Bills have allowed 17.4 PPG this season overall (tied for fifth-fewest in NFL) but allow 21.2 PPG at home.
- The Bills have averaged 19.1 PPG this season.
- The Redskins have allowed 24.4 PPG this season.
Both of these teams are coming off a loss last week and the Redskins only win of the season came by one point against the Dolphins who chose to go for it all at the end of the game instead of kicking an extra point to force overtime. The 'Skins get a little extra time to prepare for the Bills as they played against the Vikings last Thursday night. The extra rest is much needed for QB Case Keenum who was pulled from TNF with a concussion. Dwayne Haskins threw for just 33 yards completing three of five attempts and got caught for an INT. Keenum continues to look like the Redskins best option under center, unfortunately. No receiver managed to clear 40 yards last week and they will likely struggle again this week against a Bills defense that has been tough on the season, though they have struggled a bit in the last two weeks.
The Bills went up against tough weather and an even tougher Eagles offense last week as they lost 31-13. It was only the second loss of the season for Buffalo, both coming at home and the other being against the Patriots. The Bills have honestly looked a little rough since coming off of their bye the last two weeks as they allowed 21 points to the Dolphins the previous week. Josh Allen was held under 200 passing yards last week for only the second time this season against what has been a very generous Eagles secondary. The Bills found little room to run as well with the exception of an impressive performance from rookie RB Devin Singletary, but even he only managed 49 yards from scrimmage. The Bills have a great chance to get back in the win column in at least two of their next three games with the Redskins coming up this week and the Dolphins coming up in Week 11.
The Bills get an easy win here but predicting them to cover the spread is the toughest part. They barely beat the Dolphins by 10 points which is a comparable match up to this one and allowed them to score 21 points. The Redskins boast a better defense than the Dolphins which makes me think the 'Skins can cover 10 points, especially with the Bills not looking in the best form the last two games. The over seems like a safe bet here with this having the feeling of an ugly game where neither team looks great, but the Redskins make me nervous as they could easily post no points again.
My Final Prediction: Bills win 26-17
My Pick: Redskins +9.5, Over 37
Machine Pick: Redskins +9.5, Over 37
Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
Matchup Notes:
- The Titans have been sacked on 12.5% of pass attempts this season -- 2nd highest in NFL; League Avg: 6.8%
- Titans RBs have averaged 1.0 yard before contact per carry this season -- tied for lowest in NFL; League Avg: 2.0
- Titans RBs have averaged 2.5 yards after contact per carry this season -- fourth-best in NFL. The Panthers have allowed 2.6 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season -- second-highest in NFL.
- Titans TEs have averaged 9.3 yards per target this season -- 4th best in NFL; League Avg: 7.6
- Kyle Allen has been sacked on 45.9% of pass attempts when under pressure this season -- 2nd highest of 32 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 29.5%
- Panthers WRs have fumbled 5 times this season -- tied for 2nd most in NFL
- The Panthers have scored 11 of 18 (61.1%) TDs on the ground this season -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 35.9%
- The Panthers defense has 10 interceptions this season -- tied for 2nd most in NFL
- The Panthers defense has allowed 12 rushing TDs this season -- most in NFL
- The Panthers are just 1-2 at home this season.
- The Titans have averaged 18.5 PPG this season.
- The Panthers have allowed 26.3 PPG this season.
- The Panthers have averaged 25.6 PPG this season.
- The Titans have allowed 16.9 PPG this season.
The Titans snuck away with a win against the Bucs last week thanks to an early whistle negating a fake punt returned for a TD by the Bucs near the end of the game. Ryan Tannehill continued to have decent success as a passer. Despite throwing for a Marcus Mariota-ish 193 yards, he also threw for three TDs. This new-look passing attack continued to shy away from its wide receivers as tight ends Jonnu Smith (6-78-1) and Anthony Firkser (3-43) were the team's leaders in receiving yards. WRs Tajae Sharpe and rookie A.J. Brown were found for two of Tannehill's TDs, however. The Titans defense kept Tampa's tepid running game in check last week, though they allowed a monster 11-198-2 game to WR Mike Evans. They'll have their hands full with Christian McCaffrey this week who can carry his team on his back any given week.
The Panthers got dominated early last week by the 49ers as they allowed 27 points in the first half alone. Rookie Kyle Allen was also sacked six times in the first half. Before this game, the Panthers had the looks of a potential playoff contender, but the 49ers' stout defense made them look much worse than they actually are. That game got so out of hand that both teams resorted to playing backups when all was said and done. This was the type of rookie game you expect to see creep up eventually for a player like Allen no matter how well he had performed the rest of the season. Christian McCaffrey continued to look like a legitimate MVP candidate in the game despite the overall performance of the team and he will be the X-factor in this one as well.
I'm a little surprised to see the Panthers as more than three-point favorites to open the week coming off such a bad loss and with the Titans rounding into form with Tannehill now under center. Derrick Henry should be licking his chops right now also after seeing the Panthers defense give up 232 rushing yards to the 49ers last week. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Titans get a straight-up win here but at the very least I like them to keep this game within three points, but I don't really see the Panthers dropping two in a row right now.
My Final Prediction: Panthers win 23-21
My Pick: Titans +3.5, Over 41
Machine Pick: Titans +3.5, Push
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
Matchup Notes:
- In their last regular-season game against the Bears, Carson Wentz threw for 227 yards with three TDs, Zach Ertz had 10-103-1, Alshon Jeffery had 5-52-1, Nelson Agholor had 3-32-1.
- In their last regular-season game against the Eagles, Mitch Trubisky threw for 147 yards with no TDs and two INTs. In the playoffs, he threw for 303 yards with one TD and Allen Robinson had 10-143-1.
- The Bears have lost their last four games against the Eagles including the playoffs and have been outscored 43-130 during that span.
- Mitchell Trubisky has averaged just 5.6 yards per attempt this season -- lowest of 27 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 7.4
- The Bears have no TDs of 20+ yards this season.
- The Bears defense has hurried opposing QBs on 15.1% of dropbacks this season -- 3rd best in NFL; League Avg: 10.2%
- The Bears defense has allowed just 3.7 yards per carry (607 yards/164 carries) this season -- tied for 3rd best in NFL; League Avg: 4.4
- Carson Wentz has completed 65.2% of passes when scrambling this season -- best of 25 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 40.4%
- Eagles RBs have rushed for 864 yards this season -- 3rd most in NFL
- Jordan Howard has averaged 2.2 yards after contact per carry (19 carries) in the red zone this season -- 2nd best of 35 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 1.3
- Eagles WRs have averaged just 6.6 yards per target this season -- tied for 3rd lowest in NFL; League Avg: 8.2
- The Eagles secondary has missed 32 tackles this season -- 5th most in NFL
- The Bears have averaged 18.3 PPG this season but average 22.7 PPG on the road.
- The Eagles have allowed 24.9 PPG this season but just 20 PPG at home.
- The Eagles have averaged 25.2 PPG overall this season and 29 PPG at home.
- The Bears have allowed 17.4 PPG this season (tied for fifth-fewest in NFL) but have allowed 25.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Bears are coming off a heartbreaking loss where they lost against the Chargers due to a missed field goal with only four seconds remaining at the end of the game. An ending all too familiar to the Bears and really something the Chargers can relate to as well. Mitch Trubisky spread the ball around finding five different players for at least three receptions though no one managed a receiving TD. Trubisky has now thrown no TDs in three of five full games he has played. Rookie RB David Montgomery had the breakout we were all waiting for going for 135 yards and a TD on 27 carries. The Bears won't be able to rely on that type of rushing production against the Eagles stout front and will desperately need Trubisky to put down a respectable performance for them to have a chance.
The Eagles handled the Bills last week despite coming into the game as two-point road dogs. They wound up winning the game by 18 points. While the game could be credited to the Bills' recent struggles, it was also a reminder that the Eagles still have a playoff-caliber offense. They started last season with an identical record and turned it into a playoff run. The team was carried last week by an impressive running game as Jordan Howard, Miles Sanders, and Boston Scott all came away with a TD. Sanders showed off his big-play ability putting up 118 yards from scrimmage on just six touches. The Bears defense hasn't been elite lately as the Chargers left some points on the field last week and the team has now dropped three in a row. With the Eagles carrying momentum and coming home after a three-game road trip and a bye the following week, I like them a lot to come away with this one as well.
The Bears have been slightly better on the road this season with a 2-1 record there. They blew out the Redskins which can be disregarded. In their other two road games, they won by two against the Broncos and lost by three against the Raiders. Philly's defense is somewhere in the middle of those teams when it comes to points allowed. The Eagles are 2-1 at home this season but their wins were against the Redskins and Jets while they lost to the Lions. So the wins aren't entirely a convincing testament of them having home-field advantage this season. The Eagles offense is certainly operating at another level compared to the Bears which makes them an easy pick to win straight-up. The Bears defense has also been left on the field far too often this season with their offense struggling so much and with their glaring weakness being the passing game, they won't be able to leverage many opportunities here despite Philly's weak secondary.
My Final Prediction: Eagles win 26-17
My Pick: Eagles -4.5, Over 42
Machine Pick: Bears +4.5, Under 42
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs
Matchup Notes:
- The Vikings have run the ball on 51.3% of plays this season -- 2nd highest in NFL; League Avg: 39.9%
- Vikings WRs have been targeted 113 times this season -- 4th fewest in NFL
- Stefon Diggs has averaged 14.4 yards per target this season -- best of 69 qualified NFL WRs; League Avg: 8.2
- Trae Waynes (MIN) has allowed 42 completions this season -- tied for most among NFL defensive backs
- Offenses facing the Vikings have thrown the ball 60.4% of the time in the red zone this season -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 49.2%
- The Vikings defense has allowed 1 rushing TD in the red zone this season -- tied for fewest in NFL
- LeSean McCoy has averaged 0.4 yards after contact per carry (14 carries) in the red zone this season -- lowest of 35 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 1.3
- The Chiefs defense has forced 12 fumbles this season -- tied for most in NFL
- The Chiefs defense has sacked opponents 25 times this season -- 5th most in NFL
- The Chiefs defense has allowed 551 yards after contact this season -- 3rd most in NFL
- The Chiefs defense has allowed 1,076 yards after the catch this season -- 4th most in NFL
- The Chiefs are 4-1 against the Vikings at home in franchise history. They haven't lost to them in KC since 1974.
- The Vikings have averaged 26.4 PPG this season.
- The Chiefs have allowed 22.6 PPG this season.
- The Chiefs have averaged 28.2 PPG this season (fourth-most in NFL) but just 23.5 PPG at home.
- The Vikings have allowed just 16.5 PPG this season -- third-fewest in NFL.
The Vikings have had extra time to get ready for this game as they're coming off a Thursday night win last week against the Redskins. There isn't much benefit to that extra time though as there was no telling who they would face at QB against the Chiefs. The Vikes won easily last week despite missing one of their top receivers, Adam Thielen, as Stefon Diggs and Dalvin Cook continued to roll with big games. It wasn't exactly complete domination as expected though as the Vikes did not cover the massive 15.5-point spread, winning just 19-9. We should have a much more competitive game on our hands this week, especially if Mahomes can give it a go close to 100%. It's really tough picking points for the Vikes though as they will go to Detroit and put up 42 points one week then turn around and give you just 19 at home against the Redskins.
The Chiefs tried their best to keep up with the Packers on Sunday Night Football last week without Patrick Mahomes in the lineup but just couldn't get the job done. Some questionable play-calling at the end of the game from Andy Reid could be looked at as a key factor in the loss, though the defense also just couldn't contain the likes of RB Aaron Jones as they let him go for 226 yards from scrimmage and two TDs. The Chiefs running game which has generally been led by a bell-cow back under Andy Reid has struggled to find its identity this season as they continue to operate a heavy committee approach. The Chiefs are hoping to get Mahomes back already for this contest which will squarely put them as strong contenders. Otherwise, they could be looking at their fourth-straight loss at home which just doesn't seem likely, but it is entirely possible.
Bets have not been available most of the week for this game with Mahomes' status up in the air. My picks are assuming Mahomes doesn't play or is limited.
My Final Prediction: Vikings win 30-24
My Pick: No bet
Machine Pick: No bet
New York Jets (-3) at Miami Dolphins
Matchup Notes:
- Sam Darnold threw one TD and six INTs in his two games combined against the Dolphins last season.
- The Jets went 0-2 against the Dolphins last season and were outscored 18-33.
- The Jets have lost their last three games against the Dolphins and also lost five of their last six. The Jets haven't won at Miami since October 2015.
- Jets WRs have just 1 receiving TD this season -- tied for fewest in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 18 receiving touchdowns this season -- tied for fourth-most in NFL.
- The Jets defense has forced 3 fumbles this season -- tied for fewest in NFL
- Jets punters have punted 46 times this season -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 4.3
- Ryan Fitzpatrick has averaged just 23.2 pass attempts per game this season -- 3rd lowest of 34 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 29.3
- Dolphins WRs have caught just 82 of 151 passes (54.3% Reception Pct) this season -- 3rd lowest in NFL; League Avg: 62.7%
- The Dolphins have rushed for 461 yards this season -- 2nd fewest in NFL
- The Dolphins defense has allowed 26 TDs this season -- 2nd most in NFL
- The Jets are averaging 11.1 PPG this season -- second-fewest in NFL.
- The Dolphins have allowed 34 PPG this season -- most in NFL.
- The Dolphins are averaging 11 PPG this season -- fewest in NFL.
- The Jets have allowed 26.4 PPG overall this season and 30 PPG on the road.
- The Dolphins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games against the Jets. The spread was three points in four of those six matchups.
The Jets stunk it up again last week led by Sam Darnold and his three INTs. He now has seven INTs in his last two games. You know it's a bad game when your top player is tight end and former Family Guy, Ryan Griffin, who had a line of 4-66-2. The Jets got controlled in this game from the first quarter and could never get in a groove. Their win against the Cowboys in Week 6 looks even more random now than it did before and you still can't trust this team at all. Their upcoming schedule is an absolute cakewalk, starting off with this week's matchup against the Dolphins. You can't really have any confidence in these guys though making any game they're in a stay away for betting purposes no matter how good the matchup.
The Dolphins came out of the gates strong on Monday Night Football against the Steelers as they jumped out to an early 14-0 lead at the end of the first quarter. It was too much too soon though as the Steelers came back to score 27 points, giving the Phins their 10th straight loss and seventh this season. The silver lining here for fans but an obstacle for bettors is the fact that the Dolphins have now covered the spread in three straight games. We might not see quite as massive odds going forward and that is certainly the case this week against their division rivals, the Jets, who are in desperate need of a get right game. I would stay away from this game at all costs as a bettor. I'm incredibly torn on this one and really want to pick the Phins to win it. I might change this pick before Sunday, to be honest.
My Final Prediction: Jets win 26-23
My Pick: Push, Over 41.5
Machine Pick: Jets -3, Over 41.5
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1)
Matchup Notes:
- Jacoby Brissett has completed passes for 20+ yards on just 17 of his 231 total passing attempts (7.4%) this season -- 3rd lowest of 27 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 9.8%
- Indianapolis Colts WRs have been targeted 115 times this season -- 5th fewest in NFL
- Indianapolis Colts WRs have 14 receptions in the red zone this season -- 3rd most in NFL
- Indianapolis Colts RBs have not dropped a ball this season.
- The Colts defense has allowed rushes of 10+ yards on 26 of 160 carries (16.2%) this season -- 3rd highest in NFL; League Avg: 11.6%
- The Colts defense has stuffed 33.3% of rushing attempts in the red zone this season -- 4th best in NFL; League Avg: 23.8%
- Mason Rudolph has gained 41.0% of his total passing yards through the air when not under pressure this season -- lowest of 36 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 53.0%
- Steelers WRs have caught just 77 of 143 passes (53.8% Reception Pct) this season -- lowest in NFL; League Avg: 62.7%
- Steelers WRs have been targeted 10 times in the red zone this season -- tied for 3rd fewest in NFL
- The Steelers defense has forced 19 turnovers this season -- 2nd most in NFL
- The Colts have lost their last five games against the Steelers. The Colts are 2-14 all-time at Pittsburgh dating back to 1957.
- The Colts are averaging 22.6 PPG this season.
- The Steelers have allowed 20.7 PPG this season.
- The Steelers are averaging 21.4 PPG overall this season and 25.8 PPG at home.
- The Colts have allowed 21.6 PPG this season.
The Colts found themselves struggling to get anywhere against the Broncos last week, but Adam Vinatieri kicked a game-winning 51-yard field goal with less than a minute left to secure the win. Vinatieri kept the Colts alive all game converting three-of-four field goal opportunities while Jacoby Brissett threw for 202 scoreless yards. The Colts defense also did a decent job holding Joe Flacco to just 174 yards with no TDs while sacking him three times. The Colts have now strung together three wins in a row as they sit on top of the AFC South.
The Steelers gave us a bit of a scare last week as the Dolphins went up 14-0 quick in the first quarter. It took a little while, but eventually, the Steelers found their stride and came back to score 27 unanswered points in the win. They just missed covering the -14 point spread given to them and the Dolphins have actually now covered the spread in three straight games. Mason Rudolph looked shaky under center and the team relied on James Conner to carry the offense. That came with a price though as he came away from the game with a shoulder injury. The timing couldn't be worse as backup RB Jaylen Samuels was inactive in Week 8 as he is still trying to work his way back from knee surgery and rookie Benny Snell also exited Week 8's contest early with an injury of his own. It's a doomed season for the Steelers and head coach Mike Tomlin who has yet to have a losing season with the team but is staring at a 3-4 record at the halfway point.
This game is basically a pick'em with just a one-point spread but I feel like it isn't really that close to me. Brissett has been the better QB when comparing him to either of the backups the Steelers have played this season. The Colts' three-game winning streak also gives them momentum on their side and given the caliber of teams they beat during that stretch (Chiefs, Texans, Broncos) makes it more impressive. The Steelers have beaten two struggling teams back-to-back (Chargers and Dolphins) and did so in a pretty unimpressive fashion. There is some heavy history of the Steelers dominating the Colts dating all the way back to the Colts' days in Baltimore in the 1950s, but the Colts just look in better form to me right now than the Steelers do.
My Final Prediction: Colts win 24-21
My Pick: Colts +1, Over 42.5
Machine Pick: Steelers -1, Over 42.5
Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders (-2)
Matchup Notes:
- Matthew Stafford has thrown 16 touchdowns on just 161 completions (10.1 Completions Per TD) this season -- tied for best of 27 qualified NFL QBs. The Raiders have allowed 19 passing TDs this season -- tied for second-most in NFL.
- The Lions' opponents have attempted 40.3 passes per game this season -- 2nd highest in NFL; League Avg: 34.6
- The Lions defense has stuffed 23 rushing attempts this season -- fewest in NFL
- Lions linebackers have missed 10 tackles in close and late situations this season -- tied for most in NFL
- Lions secondary has missed 11 tackles in close and late situations this season -- most in NFL
- Derek Carr has completed 72.1% of passes this season -- tied for best of qualified QBs. The Lions have allowed a completion rate of 59.9% this season -- fifth-best in NFL.
- Raiders WRs have 63 receptions this season -- 3rd fewest in NFL
- Josh Jacobs has averaged 3.0 yards after contact per carry this season -- 2nd best of 33 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 2.2
- The Raiders defense has pressured opposing QBs on 9.5% of dropbacks this season -- 4th lowest in NFL; League Avg: 14.0%
- The Lions have beaten the Raiders in each of their last four games.
- The Lions are averaging 25.7 PPG this season.
- The Raiders have allowed 27.4 PPG this season -- fifth-most in NFL.
- The Raiders are averaging 21.6 PPG this season.
- The Lions have allowed 26.6 PPG this season.
The Lions started last week hot with 14 points in the first quarter and didn't give up the lead once the rest of the game. Matthew Stafford had another great game going 342-3-1 against the Giants suspect defense. After Marvin Jones stepped up big last week, it was Kenny Golladay's turn this week as he went for 123 yards with two TDs. One of the bigger storylines for this offense coming into this game was how would the team replace Kerryon Johnson in the backfield? And the answer was that, well, they didn't really. Rookie RB Ty Johnson was expected to see the lion's share of carries but only managed seven carries for 25 yards while ceding more work to Tra Carson who saw 12 carries for just 34 yards. Carson is on his third team already in just his second season as a pro and was barely picked up by Detroit off waivers 10 days prior to this game, so that was surprising. Ultimately, RBs didn't matter as they haven't for most of the season for the Lions and they probably won't going forward either. This was a much-needed win after this team dropped three-straight. The Lions can at the very least claim that they're the best last-place team in the league right now.
After getting blown out by the Packers last week, the Raiders showed up in much more competitive spirits last week against a Texans defense that was reeling with injuries. They still lost the game 24-27 but got an "A for effort." Tyrell Williams was a welcome sight to have back in the lineup for the Raiders as he grabbed a TD in his fifth straight game. The Raiders have actually been a pretty consistent offense the last three weeks as they have put up exactly 24 points in each game, and have put up 24 points four times this season. They get their first true home game this week since Week 2 against a Lions team who has been better than their record would imply and have scored at least 30 points in three of their last four games. I feel like this line is off as the Lions feel like a pretty comfortable bet to me.
My Final Prediction: Lions win 30-27
My Pick: Lions +2, Over 49.5
Machine Pick: Lions +2, Under 49.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-6)
Matchup Notes:
- In their last matchup against the Bucs (Nov. 2016), Russell Wilson threw for just 151 yards with no TDs and two INTs while taking six sacks.
- In their last matchup against the Seahawks (Nov. 2016), Jameis Winston threw for 220 yards with two TDs and one INT. Mike Evans had an 8-104-2 line.
- The Bucs have won four of their last five games against the Seahawks.
- Jameis Winston has turned the ball over on 7.1% of plays when pressured by the defense this season -- fifth highest of qualified QBs. The Seahawks have pressured opposing QBs on 11.3% of passing plays this season -- seventh lowest in NFL.
- Buccaneers WRs have caught 12 touchdown passes this season -- 3rd most in NFL
- The Buccaneers defense has allowed 69.4 rushing yards per game this season-best in NFL; League Avg: 111.6
- Russell Wilson has thrown 17 TD passes this season -- most among NFL QBs
- Seahawks WRs have 11 receiving touchdowns this season -- tied for fourth-most in NFL. The Bucs have allowed 14 receiving touchdowns this season -- tied for seventh-most in NFL.
- The Seahawks defense has hit opposing QBs on 5.8% of dropbacks this season -- 4th lowest in NFL; League Avg: 8.4%
- The Seahawks defense has allowed 195 completions this season -- 4th most in NFL
- The Bucs are averaging 28 PPG this season -- fifth-most in NFL.
- The Seahawks have allowed 24.5 PPG overall this season, but 28 PPG at home.
- The Seahawks are averaging 26 PPG this season.
- The Bucs have allowed 30.3 PPG this season -- third-most in NFL.
The Buccaneers got a rough call at the end of the game last week where a muffed fake punt from the Titans should've led to a fumble returned for a TD which would have been the go-ahead score to give the Bucs the lead. Jameis Winston tried his best to orchestrate a game-winning drive but they ultimately failed with the game ending in true Winston fashion with an ugly INT. Winston fed Mike Evans to an epic stat line of 11-198-2. The Bucs are the kings of ugly volume but it doesn't always lead to wins. They'll get another tough test this week traveling to Seattle, though the Seahawks barely held off the Falcons last week who were without Matt Ryan and allowed Matt Schaub to throw for 460 yards with one TD and one INT. The Seahawks have also lost games at home this season against the Saints and most recently the Ravens.
The Seahawks found themselves in a closer than expected contest last week against a Falcons team who was without Matt Ryan but came away with the win, putting them at 6-2 on the season. Russell Wilson was surprisingly held to only 182 passing yards against the Falcons normally-generous secondary with 100 of those yards going to Tyler Lockett. Rookie WR DK Metcalf was the recipient of both of Wilson's TDs. A big story of last week's game for the Seahawks as mentioned above was them allowing Matt Schaub to go for 460 passing yards in the game. That's the most passing yards they've allowed in a game in franchise history. That will be a problem for the Seahawks facing Jameis Winston who, for all his downfalls as a turnover machine, can sling it with the best of them if needed. This game also feels closer than it should with the Bucs stout run defense likely a problem for Chris Carson and the run-heavy 'Hawks. This team also hasn't been as dominant at home as usual.
My Final Prediction: Seahawks win 33-30
My Pick: Bucs +6, Over 51.5
Machine Pick: Bucs +6, Over 51.5
Cleveland Browns (-3) at Denver Broncos
Matchup Notes:
- Baker Mayfield has a 67.8 passer rating this season -- lowest of qualified QBs. The Broncos have allowed a passer rating of 82.1 this season -- fifth-best in NFL.
- Baker Mayfield has thrown for 2.5 yards per attempt when pressured by defenders this season -- second-lowest of qualified QBs.
- Jarvis Landry has averaged 6.6 yards after the catch this season -- tied for fifth-best of qualified WRs. The Broncos have allowed 4.7 yards after catch this season -- seventh-best in NFL.
- Nick Chubb has broken 19 tackles this season -- tied for 5th most among NFL RBs
- The Browns secondary has missed 33 tackles this season -- 4th most in NFL
- Broncos RBs have averaged 6.9 yards after the catch this season -- eighth lowest in NFL. The Browns have allowed 10.3 yards after catch per reception to RBs this season -- highest in NFL.
- Courtland Sutton has 10 receptions for 20+ yards this season -- tied for 8th most among NFL WRs
- Courtland Sutton has 6 receptions in the red zone this season -- tied for 7th most among NFL WRs
- The Broncos defense has allowed 194.8 passing yards per game this season -- 4th best in NFL; League Avg: 239.3
- The Broncos defense has allowed 12 TDs this season -- 3rd fewest in NFL
- The Browns are averaging 19 PPG this season.
- The Broncos have allowed 18.9 PPG this season.
- The Broncos are averaging 15.6 PPG this season.
- The Browns have allowed 25.9 PPG overall this season and 21.5 PPG on the road.
The Browns' struggles predictably continued last week as they came off their bye week to travel to Foxboro to face the unbeaten Patriots. The Browns dropped their third-straight loss by a score of 13-27. On the bright side, Baker Mayfield only threw one INT in the game after throwing five combined over his previous two games before the bye. Nick Chubb continued to carry the offense going for 131 yards on 20 carries, but even he couldn't avoid mistakes as he lost two fumbles. All-in-all, it was a very Browns game considering everything we have seen this season. It's looking more and more like this team will not be able to salvage this season with each passing week and their wildly erratic offense makes them a tough team to bet on no matter the matchup. They could have a chance to turn things around this week against a Broncos team that is clearly dealing with some internal struggles of their own.
Joe Flacco had some choice words for his coaching staff after last week's disappointing 13-15 loss to the Colts citing a lack of aggressiveness in play calling a big part of the team's struggles. Flacco actually made some solid points in my opinion and as a 2-6 football team, you should be putting your foot on the gas pedal as often as possible. Ironically, Flacco was then diagnosed with a neck injury and immediately ruled out for the game. Recent reports state he could be out five or six weeks. This caused a major shift in the line as journeyman backup QB Brandon Allen is set to see his first action ever in the regular season despite being in the league since 2016. He lost out to Blake Bortles for the backup job with the Rams this season, so that tells you what kind of talent we're dealing with here. The Broncos have now lost two in a row and have only scored at least 20 points in a game twice in eight games and haven't reached that mark since Week 5. Their defense continues to show more pressure against their opponents but could become gassed if they're left on the field all day with the offense now looking more stagnant than ever. The Browns just got gifted a get right game in the midst of some serious struggles. They'll still have to earn it against a hot Broncos defense, but they won't get any pressure from the opposing offense.
My Final Prediction: Browns win 21-13
My Pick: Browns -3, Under 39
Machine Pick: Browns -3, Over 39
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Matchup Notes:
- The Packers are 10-1 all-time against the Chargers
- Aaron Rodgers has six TDs and no INTs in two career games against the Chargers combined.
- Philip Rivers is 0-3 in his career against the Packers. He has thrown for over 300 yards with at least two TDs in all three games.
- In their last game against the Packers (Oct. 2015), Philip Rivers threw for 503 yards with two TDs and no INTs. Keenan Allen had a 14-157 receiving line.
- Aaron Rodgers has 15 completions for 20+ yards against the blitz this season -- 2nd most among NFL QBs
- Jamaal Williams has been targeted 5 times in the red zone this season -- tied for 6th most among NFL RBs
- Aaron Jones has averaged 4.0 yards per carry (72 yards/18 carries) in the red zone this season -- 2nd best of 35 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 2.5
- Green Bay Packers RBs have averaged 1.6 yards after contact per carry this season -- 3rd lowest in NFL; League Avg: 2.2
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling has averaged 19.1 yards per reception this season -- tied for 3rd best of 69 qualified NFL WRs; League Avg: 13.1
- The Packers defense has tackled opponents for a loss on just 10 of 201 rushing attempts (5.0% TFL%) this season. -- lowest in NFL; League Avg: 12.4%
- Philip Rivers has thrown for 2,315 passing yards this season -- 3rd most among NFL QBs
- Chargers WRs have averaged 2.9 yards after the catch this season -- tied for second-lowest in NFL. The Packers have allowed 6.2 yards after catch per reception to WRs this season -- second-highest in NFL.
- Austin Ekeler has averaged 63.4 receiving yards per game this season-best of NFL RBs
- Hunter Henry has gained 20+ yards on 6 of his 22 receptions (27.3%) this season -- 2nd best of 18 qualified NFL TEs; League Avg: 14.2%
- The Packers are averaging 26.9 PPG this season.
- The Chargers have allowed 19.6 PPG overall this season but 23.8 PPG at home.
- The Chargers are averaging 19.6 PPG this season.
- The Packers have allowed 20.4 PPG this season.
The Packers continued to stay hot as they won their fourth game in a row last week against the Chiefs by a score of 31-24, covering their -4.5-point spread. The Pack moves to 7-1 on the season and has done so without the likes of star wideout Davante Adams on the field. Adams has a solid shot at returning this week which will only make this team stronger. In his absence, we have seen a true team effort where someone new steps up every week to carry the team to a win. Last week, it was RB Aaron Jones who totaled 226 yards from scrimmage and two TDs. This week, the Packers will travel to California to face a Chargers team that has struggled to find its stride all season.
The Chargers ended a three-game drought last week as they snuck in a one-point win thanks to a missed kick by Eddy Piñeiro. The Bolts will take it after losing each of their last three by no more than one possession. Still, they have only reached 20 points once in their last four games and continued to get inexcusable mistakes like Keenan Allen dropping a TD in the endzone. Their running game was also non-existent again as they haven't topped 40 rushing yards as a team once in their last four games, and haven't crossed the 100-yard rushing mark since all the way back in Week 2. Thanks for coming back, Melvin Gordon. The straight-up win last week was a welcome sight nonetheless for bettors who continue to blindly trust the Chargers potential (like myself) as they were +3.5 point underdogs in the contest. You still can't trust this team any given week with your money and especially not against a surging Packers team who will probably have more fans in the stands in Los Angeles than the Chargers.
My Final Prediction: Packers win 27-21
My Pick: Packers -3.5, Over 47.5
Machine Pick: Chargers +3.5, Push
New England Patriots (-3) at Baltimore Ravens
Matchup Notes:
- In his last game against the Ravens (Dec. 2016), Tom Brady threw for 406 yards with three TDs and one INT.
- The Patriots are 8-1 all-time in the regular season against the Ravens. Their only regular-season loss came in September 2012.
- Patriots RBs have gained 489 yards after the catch this season -- 2nd most in NFL
- The Patriots defense has allowed 592 yards after the catch this season -- fewest in NFL
- Opponents have run the ball against the Patriots defense on just 32.3% of plays this season -- lowest in NFL; League Avg: 39.9%
- The Ravens have thrown the ball 44.6% of the time this season -- 3rd lowest in NFL; League Avg: 54.9%
- Ravens RBs have been targeted 24 times this season -- fewest in NFL
- Ravens TEs have been targeted 14 times in the red zone this season -- most in NFL
- The Ravens defense has hit opposing QBs on 11.3% of dropbacks this season -- tied for 2nd best in NFL; League Avg: 8.4%
- The Patriots are averaging 31.2 PPG this season -- most in NFL.
- The Ravens have allowed 22.3 PPG this season.
- The Ravens are averaging 30.6 PPG overall this season (second-most in NFL) but just 23.7 PPG at home.
- The Patriots have allowed just 7.6 PPG overall this season and 4.2 PPG on the road.
The Patriots remain unbeaten after their Week 8 drumming of the continually struggling Cleveland Browns. Their defense remained elite allowing just 13 points in the game and continued to even assist the offense by scoring a defensive TD. The offense remained steady as Tom Brady effortlessly threw for 259 yards and found Julian Edelman for two TDs. The running game did enough led by Sony Michel who carried the ball 21 times for 74 yards. You hate to get nitpicky with a team this good, but it would be great to see more effort from Michel and the running game all season. The Pats will get their toughest test of the season thus far as they travel to Baltimore to face a Ravens team coming fresh off its bye week.
Before their bye last week, the Ravens had strung together three straight wins. Lamar Jackson has reverted back to looking uncomfortable as a passer but has made up for it with his rushing ability and creating plays reminiscent of Michael Vick. You wonder about the durability of Jackson based on just how physical he has been running lately but it is working regardless. The Ravens have scored no less than 23 points in a game this season and the Patriots have allowed no more than 14, so it will be really interesting to see which side wins.
My money is on the Pats and fairly comfortably as I just anticipate a coach as great as Bill Belichick being able to exploit Jackson's weakness as a passer while shutting him down as a runner. The Ravens will need to get a little more creative in this one. Don't forget, this is also a Ravens team that let the Browns put up 40 points against them just a few weeks back. Big games are where the Pats shine and this is their biggest of all so far this season.
My Final Prediction: Patriots win 33-17
My Pick: Patriots -3, Over 45
Machine Pick: Patriots -3, Under 45
Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) at New York Giants
Matchup Notes:
- In their Week 1 matchup this season, Dak Prescott threw for 405 yards with four TDs, Michael Gallup had a 7-158 line, Amari Cooper had 6-106-1, Zeke had just 53 yards on 13 carries with one TD, Evan Engram had an 11-116-1 line, and Saquon Barkley ran 11 times for 120 yards.
- The Cowboys have won their last five games against the Giants and scored 30 points or more in three of those games.
- Dak Prescott has not been sacked (57 pass attempts) against the blitz this season.
- Dak Prescott has thrown for first downs on 52.6% of his pass attempts against the blitz this season -- best of 34 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 38.8%
- Amari Cooper has averaged 12.4 yards per target this season -- 2nd best of 69 qualified NFL WRs; League Avg: 8.2
- Cowboys WRs have 7 receptions in the red zone this season -- tied for 5th fewest in NFL
- Cowboys WRs have dropped 14 balls this season -- tied for most in NFL
- Cowboys RBs have 7 rushing touchdowns in the red zone this season -- tied for sixth-most in NFL. The Giants have allowed 10 rushing TDs this season -- tied for second-most in NFL.
- Daniel Jones has been pressured on 31.2% of plays this season -- highest of 28 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 21.7%
- Daniel Jones has committed 7 turnovers on 81 plays (8.6% turnover percentage) when under pressure this season -- 3rd highest of 32 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 4.7%
- The Giants defense has allowed 35 receptions for 20+ yards this season -- tied for 2nd most in NFL.
- The Cowboys are averaging 27.1 PPG overall this season but just 21 PPG on the road.
- The Giants have allowed 27.2 PPG overall this season but just 21.5 at home.
- The Giants are averaging 19.8 PPG this season.
- The Cowboys have allowed 17.7 PPG this season.
The Cowboys are coming fresh off a bye week but are likely still savoring that win against their division foe, the Eagles, back in Week 7 where their 37-10 win ended a three-game skid. It has been hard to know what to expect from the Cowboys this season as they mostly dominated bad teams but lost to the Jets in Week 6. They have lost each of their last two road games this season and their only road win came against the helpless Redskins. Luckily for them, the Giants are on a losing streak of their own right now having dropped their last four games and despite getting close to full health on offense, they still just have no cohesion as an offensive unit. I would expect Dak, Zeke, and Amari Cooper to have their way with this team.
The Giants dropped another tough loss last week making it four in a row for them as their season is slipping away with them falling to 2-6. Rookie QB Daniel Jones had his best statistical game of the season throwing for 322 yards with four TDs. Saquon Barkley continued to do his thing also compiling 143 yards from scrimmage with one TD. It simply wasn't enough in a game where the Lions were just the better team. This week the Giants get a Week 1 rematch against their division rivals, the Dallas Cowboys. This time they get to play at home, however, and with Daniel Jones starting as opposed to Eli Manning. The Cowboys put up 35 yards against the Giants defense in that game which could be a likely outcome again this week with the Giants defense not offering much to get excited about.
My Final Prediction: Cowboys win 30-20
My Pick: Cowboys -7.5, Over 47.5
Machine Pick: Cowboys -7.5, Under 47.5
John Ferguson
John Ferguson is an avid Fantasy Football fanatic with 10+ years of experience in friends and family leagues, paying public leagues, and DFS Tournaments. Ferguson specializes in draft strategies, trade negotiations (Buy Low/Sell High) and DFS value picks amongst other parts of fantasy football analysis. When Ferguson isn’t spending time skimming over stats while at the beach, he follows the Oakland Athletics closely as a diehard fan and enjoys spending quality time with his beautiful wife and three children. A native of Monterey, California, Ferguson now calls Quintana Roo, Mexico home.