Josh Jacobs Fantasy 2021
Much hype surrounded Josh Jacobs entering the 2020 season. Jacobs’ ADP in 2020, per FantasyData, settled at 8.4, a consensus 1st round pick ahead of Nick Chubb, Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill. Some fantasy analysts dared to call Josh Jacobs a “my-guy” in anticipation of an increased role in the Las Vegas Raiders’ passing game. For context, during his rookie season in 2019, Jacobs averaged 2.1 targets per game with the likes of Jalen Richard in the backfield. Richard only averaged 2.7 targets per game, including one game of 7 targets in 2019. In the 3 games Jacobs missed in 2019, backup DeAndre Washington handled 14, 23, and 17 carries. Outside of plugging in as the starter for Jacobs, Washington’s season-high was limited to 6 carries on six different occasions that season. Jacobs finished 2019 as RB21 overall and RB15 in fantasy points per game. The Raiders added Devontae Booker to the backfield during the 2020 offseason, a sign that the team would trust Jacobs to handle the majority of carries going into the season while continuing to split pass-catching work.
Jacobs’ 2020 Recap
Game-script dictated Josh Jacobs’ performance on a weekly basis throughout 2020– even though he produced strong end-of-year numbers. Jacobs finished as the RB8 in total ppr fantasy points, 12th in fantasy points per game, 4th in total TDs with 12, and 8th among RBs with 1,064 rushing yards. His 27.5% juke rate ranked 11th among all RBs, and he increased his targets per game by 43% up to 3.0 targets per game. Jacobs evaded 5.6 tackles per game, good for 4th among all RBs, 3rd in total carries, and 5th among all RBs in yards created. Jacobs did all of this behind PFF’s graded 6th worst run-blocking group. Even with the Raiders trading and releasing most of its offensive line this offseason, there isn’t much further to fall for the offensive line to get. As for Devontae Booker, the backup to Jacobs in 2020, he averaged only 5.1 carries per game throughout the season outside of stepping in for Jacobs’ one missed game.
The Arrival of Kenyan Drake
This offseason, however, Jacobs’ fallen ADP is most obviously attributed to the arrival of Kenyan Drake. Drake averaged 15.9 carries per game as the Arizona Cardinals’ lead running back in 2020. Drake finished as RB15 in total fantasy points, 10th in total TDs with 10, and 12th in rushing yards with 955.
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Kenyan Drake |
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|
Year |
Carries Per Game |
Targets Per Game |
|
2017 |
8.3 |
3.0 |
|
2018 |
7.5 |
4.6 |
|
2019 |
12.1 |
4.9 |
|
2020 |
15.9 |
2.1 |
Drake’s strong finish to the 2019 season (going 22-127-4, 24-166-2, 12-60-1 in the final 3 games) also generated massive hype. Drake jumped from ADP RB35 in 2019 to RB12 in 2020. However, Drake’s involvement in the passing game was a massive disappointment, with Drake only receiving 11 total targets through the first ten weeks of 2020. But why bring in Drake? Raiders Head Coach Jon Gruden: “A lot of people say, ‘why (sign) Kenyan Drake?’ Well, Doug Martin had 190 touches three years ago when (Marshawn) Lynch went down,” Gruden said. “DeAndre Washington had 144 touches when Jacobs went down two years ago. And this past year, Josh went down and Devontae Booker got 110 touches. So we’re going to try to circulate the touches Kenyan Drake’s way. He’s a guy that’s made big plays.”
It’s clear from Gruden’s perspective that Drake was signed to be an injury insurance policy for Josh Jacobs, not meant to take over the large rushing load that Jacobs was already handling. Practically speaking, Drake may earn slightly more rushes per game than Washington or Booker from past seasons, but per an interview with ESPN’s Mike Clay, Drake expects to be more of a weapon than a 1st/2nd down role running back. Raiders running backs not named Josh Jacobs earned 67 targets in 2020, much of which– plus some of Jacobs’ own targets– will now be schemed Drake’s way.
Good interview with Kenyan Drake on @SiriusXMNFL just now. While respectful of Kliff’s plan, you can tell he wasn’t thrilled about being pigeonholed as a 1st/2nd down back. He expects to play a more versatile role (including some WR) with the Raiders…
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) July 6, 2021
The Value of Josh Jacobs
Right now, Josh Jacobs’ ADP sits at 54th overall, at RB20 behind the likes of JK Dobbins and Chris Carson. However, Jacobs’ downhill ADP trend makes him a significant value, having lost almost a full round of value over the past 5 weeks. Since Jacobs’ ADP seems to have leveled out, it seems that the market has settled on where Jacobs should be drafted. The pendulum may swing back in Jacobs’ favor in the coming weeks as training camps open up and Drake’s pass-catching and change-of-pace role is confirmed. His value has dropped significantly with little news over the past few weeks.
Action Item: Buy the dip with Josh Jacobs. Jacobs is the exact type of running back you want to target in the 5th round of drafts– high upside in positive game scripts and guaranteed workload that’s proven to be fantasy relevant without a significant target share.
Note: Kenyan Drake was placed on the Non-Football Injury List with an undisclosed injury on July 28th, 2021.
