Ja’Marr Chase Fantasy Preview
Despite electing to sit out the 2020 season due to the pandemic, former LSU standout wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase still managed to be the first wideout selected in the 2021 NFL Draft. Chase was the best receiver in college in 2019 and his dominant showing for that historic Tigers offense resulted in the No. 5 overall pick to the Cincinnati Bengals. When last on the field, Chase led the nation in touchdowns (20), broken tackles (22), and ranked second with 1,559 receiving yards.
Ja’Marr Chase NCAA ranks in 2019:
1st in TD grabs (18)
2nd with 1559 receiving yards
2nd w/ 14.2 yards per target
2nd w/ 20.8 yards per catch
2nd w/ 119.8 yards per game
1st with 22 broken tackles
3rd with 346 yards after contact— Jody Smith (@JodySmithNFL) August 30, 2020
Now reunited with former LSU teammate Joe Burrow, Chase checks all the boxes to develop into one of the top wide receivers in the NFL. He has the size (6-0, 201), speed (4.39), and athleticism (135.7 burst score) to make an immediate impact and that has resulted in sky-high value in both dynasty and redraft fantasy football leagues.
With all that hype, the main question for fantasy enthusiasts is what can we expect from Ja’Marr Chase in 2021?
Skill Set
As noted, Chase is already a complete talent with insane ball skills and rare after-catch abilities. in 2019, Chase ranked third in the nation with 346 yards after contact and routinely made highlight-reel catches. When left in single coverage, Chase regularly won those battles and came down with the ball. Blessed with a 10.31 catch radius (94th-percentile), he’s going to immediately create mismatches against smaller cornerbacks and safeties.
With 95th-percentile speed, Chase has the jets to be a major problem for NFL defensive backs and is going to command extra attention right away. At LSU, Chase housed eight touchdowns from 50-plus yards in 2019 alone. That kind of top-end speed is going to open up the field for Chase, who could really be a big play, after-the-catch factor on shorter and intermediate routes.
Armed with excellent size, game-breaking speed, and tremendous ball skills, Chase drew favorable comparisons to another former LSU star wideout, Odell Beckham Jr. Beckham was an instant nightmare for opponents and Chase will likely inhabit that X-receiver spot in a young Cincinnati offense that is swarming with talent.
Landing Spot
By selecting Chase fifth overall, the Bengals now have three wide receivers selected in the first or second round and all three are under 27-years-old. Chase will be an immediate starter and slide right into the spot vacated by A.J. Green, who signed with Arizona via free agency.
Although he wasn’t the most efficient wideout in football last season, Green certainly commanded plenty of volume. Green drew 104 targets last season but averaged 7.7 targets per game in Burrow’s 10 starts. Extrapolated out to 17 weeks and that’s a pace of 131 targets that could potentially head Chase’s way in 2021.
Green led the Cincinnati receiving yards in air yards and ADOT, which bodes well for Chase’s downfield abilities. Although he missed more than six games with a torn ACL, QB Joe Burrow ranked sixth in the NFL with 159.2 air yards per game and an accuracy rating of 7.6.
The Bengals ranked 13th with 65 plays per game but are almost guaranteed to be a top-10 unit as long as Burrow stays healthy. That makes Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd all strong candidates to exceed triple-digit targets and Zac Taylor’s squad a darkhorse to produce top-5 yardage and fantasy scoring numbers.
Fantasy Impact
Every NFL receiver who surpassed 100 targets last season was a top-40 fantasy wideout except for Green and Denver’s Jerry Jeudy, who was hampered by lousy quarterback play. Chase should have no problems exceeding 100 targets and could easily climb up past 130 in this offense, which would set the dynamic rookie up to be a weekly WR2/3 right out of the gate.
Odell Beckham drew 130 targets in only 12 games during his rookie season and posted an insane 91/1,305/12 line with Eli Manning as his signal-caller. While we can’t expect those kinds of elite numbers right away from Ja’Marr Chase, he has the tools to be a significant contributor from Day One.
Every season it seems a rookie wideout is able to make an immediate impact in the NFL and Chase has the best skills and opportunity of this rookie class to continue that trend.
Early redraft ADP has Chase being selected in the eighth or ninth round of PPR drafts, as the WR46. This is almost assuredly his low point as that number is almost guaranteed to correct as the season approaches. Early fantasy managers should be chomping at the bit to get such an intriguing talent at such a discounted price, as there is almost no chance Chase doesn’t bring a positive return on a lowly 10th-round investment.
Dynasty Value
Chase might be a tremendous redraft value but his dynasty value is much costlier. Chase has been a popular choice as the 1.01 in rookie-only drafts, particularly in PPR leagues that allow for fantasy managers to flex four or more wideouts. Even in Superflex dynasty leagues that are skewed by the loaded 2020 rookie quarterback class, Chase is still going to command a pick in the top half of Round 1.
For dynasty start-ups, view Chase as a potential stud wideout that is merely 21-years-old, which makes him worthy of third or fourth-round considerations. It isn’t inconceivable to consider Chase as early as the latter part of the second round, as a top-10 wideout in full PPR formats that allow for four or more wideouts in the startling lineup.
While the hype around Ja’Marr Chase is considerate and quite well deserved, he looks like a can’t-miss prospect who just might quickly develop into one of the NFL’s top alpha receivers. Fantasy enthusiasts have to be willing to pay up to take that chance, but the reward could pay off considerably for the next 10-plus seasons.
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