Jayden Reed Fantasy
If you want to win your fantasy football leagues, you must dominate the mid to late-rounds of your draft. It is easy to pick the star players in the early rounds, but can you find a few league-winners to carry your team later on? A few players come out of nowhere yearly and have monster statistical seasons. One player being overlooked this offseason is Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed. Reed is coming off an impressive rookie season where he caught 64 passes for 793 yards and eight touchdowns. Also, he added 11 rushes for 119 yards and two touchdowns. Those stats were good enough for Reed to finish sixth in Offensive Rookie of the Year. Reed showed versatility last year, which will be coveted by the Packers’ offense. Standing at 5’11”, his more petite frame allows him to do things other big-bodied receivers cannot. Reed has a current ADP of WR35 and 75th overall. That makes him a flex option for 2024, but it would not be surprising to see him return massive value in a high-powered Packers offense.
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The emergence of Jordan Love has helped all of the Packers’ weapons in fantasy. He has established himself as a franchise quarterback and just received a massive contract extension to keep him in Green Bay for the foreseeable future. Reed and Love developed chemistry in their first season together. Reed had a 17% target share despite playing a part-time role. For the season, he played 56% of the offensive snaps. It is all but a guarantee his snap rate will increase in 2024, giving him plenty more opportunities for fantasy points. Like most rookies, you look for vast improvement throughout the season. That was the case with Reed, who had double-digit fantasy points in seven of the eight games to end the season.
It is time for Reed to carry that production level into the 2024 season. The Packers do not have an alpha WR1, making Reed, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs fight for the top spot. What separates Reed from those other players is his health and versatility. Watson has had a difficult time staying on the field during his career. In two seasons, he has played 23 and has suffered multiple soft-tissue injuries. Also, Watson is at his best as a deep threat, a spot where Reed is not as involved. Reed spent the majority of his rookie season playing out of the slot. He had 435 of his 638 snaps in the slot. In years past, some people were afraid to select slot receivers as that alignment could hinder their ceiling. But, nowadays, every team starts three receivers, and all can be productive. It helps that Reed can get open at an elite rate; he had 2.1 yards of target separation last year and a 45.2% win rate vs. man coverage. There is no reason to think he cannot carry that into 2024 and act as a security blanket for Love.
Reed is an enticing player in fantasy football because of how quickly he accumulates points. According to Fantasy Footballers, Reed had the fourth-highest points per touch among rookie WRs over the past decade. He scored 217.2 PPR points last season on 75 touches, which is 2.90 points per touch. The only players who rank higher than Reed are Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Odell Beckham Jr. It is safe to say Reed is in elite company. If Reed can be productive in the red zone, there is no slowing him down; last season, he was someone Love consistently looked to in that area, recording 17 red zone targets, which was tied for 14th in the NFL. With Reed’s workload expected to improve this season, that number should only go up.
In 12-team leagues, you can get Reed in the sixth or seventh round. That is excellent value for a player who will see plenty of work in a high-powered offense. At worst, Reed should be a reliable flex play this season, but if everything goes perfectly, he could even blossom into a low-end WR1 for fantasy football. The Green Bay offense is ideal for fantasy as they have one of the top play callers in football, Matt LaFleur. We should see Love take another step forward, which will help his receivers’ production. Even though Jayden Reed may not be a household name, do not let him slip too far in drafts.
