Fantasy Football Stock Movement
The tight end spot may very well be the most elusive position in all of fantasy football. While some tight ends in the TJ Hockenson and George Kittle range can nearly guarantee a team double-digit performances every week, others struggle to see any type of volume yet end up on a team due to lack of options. Therefore, it’s crucial to pay attention to each tight end’s environment when projecting their output. Here are two tight ends that are rising in value and two that could be in line to take a step back in 2024.
Rising: Kyle Pitts – TE6
It’s no secret that the Falcons upgraded at quarterback this offseason when they signed Kirk Cousins to a sizable four-year deal. Since Matt Ryan departed in 2021, Atlanta has had two straight years without a 3,000-yard passer. Marcus Mariota held his own in a 13-game sample size, but the 170.7 passing yards per game mark showed that this team was much more committed to the run. Desmond Ridder failed to throw for 3,000 yards last season, and his 12 picks and 12 fumbles showed a lack of an ability to protect the ball.
Kyle Pitts, as a result, has seen his performance suffer. The 6-foot-6 tight end has racked in just 149 receptions out of 249 targets for an abysmal 59.8% catch rate. Cousins rolls into town with 270 career passing touchdowns over 12 seasons; he also has seven 4,000-yard seasons under his belt.
Rondale Moore and Darnell Mooney were brought in as offensive reinforcements, but if Cousins has a season similar to those of years past, there will be plenty of receiving yards to go around.
Rising: Evan Engram – TE8
While the Jaguars team as a whole sputtered out in the latter stages of the 2023 season, Evan Engram’s fantasy ceiling only rose in the offseason. Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones both made up 200 of Jacksonville’s targets last season, and neither will be wearing a Jaguars jersey in 2024. Ridley is off to Tennessee, while Jones is heading to Arizona.
The most significant addition to this receiving corps is Gabe Davis, who brings 2,730 yards over four years to an offense seeking a vertical threat. Fresh off of back-to-back 4,000-yard passing seasons, Trevor Lawrence has shown an ability to push the ball down the field. Engram is currently rated as the TE8 after finishing in the TE2 spot, but many factors point to him taking another step forward from a total points perspective. With Engram coming off of a 963-yard season, he could surpass the 1,000-yard mark if he puts up a healthy campaign.
Falling: TJ Hockenson – TE13
As the TE4 in a PPR format last season, TJ Hockenson put up yet another impressive run at the tight end spot. Unfortunately for him, he’s on the losing end of the Kirk Cousins offseason transactions. After serving as a model of consistency in Minnesota for six seasons, Cousins is out for Sam Darnold and 2024 first-round draft pick J.J. McCarthy.
On top of there being gigantic shoes to fill at the quarterback position, the Vikings went out and signed veteran running back Aaron Jones. Darnold has been in and out of a starting job for the last few years, McCarthy comes from a run-heavy Big Ten offense in Michigan and Aaron Jones (5.0 career YPC in his career) is a definite upgrade from Alexander Mattison (4.1 YPC). All signs point to Minnesota having a more run-heavy scheme than years past.
With Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison nearly combining for 2,000 yards in 2023, Hockenson’s opportunities could take a hit. Add all of this to the fact Hockenson is currently nursing a knee injury, and there are a variety of reasons the Vikings tight end should see a downtick in production this season.
Falling: Cole Kmet – TE16
While he has never cracked the top 5 for tight ends in a PPR format, Cole Kmet has been one of the more reliable options in fantasy. His production has been optimal for those searching for a stable pass-catcher, but Kmet may be in line for a reduction in targets and snap share in 2024.
The Monsters of the Midway underwent a massive offensive overhaul this past offseason, looking nearly unrecognizable compared to the team they had in 2023. Six-time Pro Bowler Keenan Allen and 2024 first rounder Rome Odunze will join DJ Moore in one of the league’s most talented receiving rooms. The tight end room also changed, as Gerald Everett (working on five straight 400-yard seasons) will work alongside Kmet.
D’Andre Swift, who has garnered an average of 50 targets per season, is another potential threat for targets. Add a new quarterback in Caleb Williams and a year one offensive coordinator in Shane Waldron, and there’s a great possibility Kmet gets lost in the shuffle.
Read More on Cole Kmet Fantasy Preview
Target Competition Reigns Supreme
When selecting tight ends for your 2024 fantasy squad, it cannot be stated enough how important a player’s environment is. Pay attention to the offseason transactions, and give a keen eye to some positional battles in preseason. With those strategies, and a bit of luck, you have major leverage over your fellow competitors at the position.
