Fantasy Rankings Update: July 24th
We’ve reached late July and even those most dedicated to hibernation in the football offseason have begun to emerge. With training camps kicking off, this is the perfect time to start catching up on all the developments that happened throughout another busy “off” season.
Some overzealous football fans may even be about ready to kick off their annual fantasy football drafts. I can understand that excitement–we used to get so fired up after the NFL Draft that we would have our fantasy draft in May. Clearly, it is better to wait for all the comings and goings to take place in training camp and the preseason, but it’s definitely not too early to start setting the groundwork for your greatest draft yet.
As I’ve been digging deep into the advanced metrics available here at FantasyData, and it’s been quite eye-opening and exciting. It’s definitely time for me to do a complete overhaul of my 2019 fantasy rankings and to talk about some of the movers and shakers.
Here are the updated 2019 fantasy rankings heading into training camp, the official kick-off of another fabulous football season. You can also see all my 2019 draft rankings here.
Players on the Rise
Kirk Cousins (QB) Minnesota Vikings – I got Cousins up into QB1 territory where he belongs. Cousins gets no love but has been one of the most consistent fantasy signal-callers for some time. Since becoming a full-time starter, Cousins has finished as the QB9, QB5, QB4, and QB9. That’s four straight top-10 finishes while averaging over 31 total touchdowns per season. Throw in Minnesota’s terrific tandem of wideouts and there’s no reason to expect Cousins to not post excellent numbers again and be a strong value in the later rounds.
Damien Williams (RB) Kansas City Chiefs – It’s looking more and more like Williams will be Kansas City’s three-down, full-time starter and that should lead to fantasy gold if he’s able to stay healthy and hold onto that job. Andy Reid running backs have been excellent performers and Williams is going to be a high-end RB1/2 if he retains the job all year. He’s an excellent target at the tail end of Round 2 or top of the third.
Austin Ekeler (RB) Los Angeles Chargers – Melvin Gordon‘s announcement that he intended to holdout for a new contract draws some alarms, particularly in the wake of Le’Veon Bell sitting out an entire season. Should Gordon make good on his threat to miss the 2019 campaign, Ekeler has true RB1 upside. Ekeler is a better receiver than Gordon and had success around the goal line. Expect his ADP to start skyrocketing, maybe even getting into the top-30. Justin Jackson is also worth a deep look in larger leagues.
Highest QB rating when targeted (20+) RBs
Kareem Hunt 145.6
Jaylen Samuels 129.7
Tevin Coleman 126.7
M. Breida 123.3
Damien Williams 122.2
Kenyan Drake 115.3
W. Smallwood 114.5
D. Sproles 114.4
Austin Ekeler 114
Melvin Gordon 112.9
Adrian Peterson 112.3
Christian McCaffrey 111.9— Jody Smith (@JodySmithNFL) July 14, 2019
Jaylen Samuels (RB) Pittsburgh Steelers – See the above tweet. Samuels had the second-highest QB rating among all RBs that received 20+ targets last season. With Antonio Brown now in Oakland, there will be plenty of abandoned targets in Pittsburgh. For now, Samuels is a solid change-of-pace runner behind James Conner, but there have been plenty of rumors that the Steelers might move away from a feature back and employ more of a committee, which makes Samuels and Benny Snell Jr. interesting late-round targets.
Tony Pollard (RB) Dallas Cowboys – Like Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliott is making a power play for a lucrative contract extension. Elliott’s holdout likely won’t last long as he’d lose a year of credit towards becoming a potential free agent, but Dallas will have an open competition for carries in the first few weeks of camp. Fourth-rounder Tony Pollard flashed some three-down ability at Memphis and will battle with Darius Jackson for starts in Elliott’s absence. Definitely, a backfield to monitor in the coming weeks.
Josh Gordon (WR) New England Patriots – Gordon is still indefinitely suspended but rumors have persisted that he could be reinstated soon. Overall, I’m not that big of a fan of Gordon and always worry about his well-being when he’s active. That said, he’s definitely on the fantasy radar in deeper leagues and I had to add him to my rankings as
Rashard Higgins (WR) Cleveland Browns – Higgins is listed behind Antonio Calloway on the depth chart but Higgins shows up surprisingly well in FantasyData’s advanced metrics. In fact, he ranked fourth among all NFL WRs with a 75% contested catch rate and excelled in man coverage. If Higgins beats out Calloway for WR3 duties, he’s a superb late-round sleeper candidate.
QB Ratings when targeting receivers last year VS. MAN COVERAGE (25+targets)
Cooper Kupp 158.3 (perfect score)
Tyler Lockett 152.7
Tre’Quan Smith 151
Will Fuller 150.3
Michael Thomas 142.7
Calvin Ridley 138.9
Rashard Higgins 138.9
Christian McCaffrey 138.7
Austin Ekeler 138.3— Jody Smith (@JodySmithNFL) July 13, 2019
Players Who Moved Down
Tom Brady (QB) New England Patriots – There’s almost no chance Brady winds up down as the QB20, but the position is incredibly deep and loaded with players that I simply like better. Brady is still a serviceable fantasy starter, but his fantasy points per game have declined in four straight seasons and the unsettled receiving corps around the veteran quarterback makes it hard to see a significant rebound at age 42.
Derrius Guice (RB) Washington Redskins – Guice continues to suffer concerning setbacks in his recovery. The latest is supposedly a “minor” hamstring ailment, but it’s been a rough year for the 2018 rookie rusher. Also, Adrian Peterson re-signed with the club and proved to be more than capable last season. Rather than putting Guice into a big role right away, Jay Gruden may ease him into a committee with Peterson, which essentially would torpedo both player’s values.
Josh Adams (RB) Philadelphia Eagles – With Jordan Howard, Miles Sanders, and Wendell Smallwood entrenched ahead of him on the depth chart, I just don’t see any viable way that Adams makes the Eagles, much less make any fantasy impact. I like Adams overall, but he’s going to have to get a fresh start on another team to be relevant in 2019.
Devin Funchess (WR) Indianapolis Colts – Funchess is a big-bodied wideout who profiles as a potential red-zone threat for QB Andrew Luck, but Funchess was plagued by drops last season and has been largely inadequate. He’s also slow and will have way more competition on his own team for snaps and those valuable TD looks. I’m going to go ahead an avoid Funchess at his current cost and instead target second-round rookie Parris Campbell, who is far more dynamic.
Devante Parker (WR) Miami Dolphins – What do you know, Parker is being praised for having an outstanding summer. Call me a cynic, but seems like we’ve seen this time and time again. Rather than make one final attempt to corral the talent that Parker had in college, I’ll instead take Albert Wilson, who looked like one of the most dynamic receivers in the league last season in limited action.
Chris Herndon (TE) New York Jets – The NFL suspended Herndon four games for a DUI arrest the sophomore tight end had last summer. Herndon started to mesh well with QB Sam Darnold in the second half of 2018 but missing one-quarter of the season makes Herndon un-draftable in my eyes.
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