Keon Coleman Fantasy
The Buffalo Bills traded down not once, but twice and ultimately out of the 1st round and still somehow landed Keon Coleman with the 33rd overall pick. By way of Michigan State, the Florida State wideout had lofty expectations heading into the 2023 season and ultimately didn’t meet them. He was part of a Seminole’s team that went undefeated in the regular season en route to winning an ACC championship before losing to Georgia in their bowl game. The issue here with Coleman is not the talent by any stretch of the imagination, it’s the consistent production that is lacking. Coleman never produced over 60 receptions or 800 yards in his 3 years in college. Working mostly as a red zone threat, the 6′ 4″ Coleman did haul in 19 touchdowns in his college career. Coleman can be a true “X” receiver in the league, but it’s going to take an enormous amount of volume to overcome the inconsistency that has been his career. How does he stack up for this year and beyond? Let’s see…
Fantasy Value
Keon Coleman had one of, if not, the best landing spots for all of these rookie wide receivers. Buffalo traded away Stefon Diggs this offseason and Josh Allen needed a new receiver bad enough that the Bills made Coleman the 8th receiver off the board in the top 33 picks of the draft. While the landing spot is primo I don’t want anyone getting carried away that Coleman is going to become the next Diggs in this offense. The production profiles for both Coleman and Diggs coming out of college are similar, but Diggs did have more production. That’s not to say that Coleman is doomed, but it sure is cause for concern. You look at this guy and think, “Wow, he is going to be special,” but there’s not much data supporting this claim. Can Allen force-feed targets to Coleman? Yes. Can Allen find Coleman in the red zone? Yes. The issue here is that we know Allen is a mobile quarterback who routinely runs the ball in himself (15 rushing TDs last year which is tied for most in the NFL). The Buffalo Bills had 68 pass attempts and 99 rush attempts inside the red zone for 2023. That is a STAGGERING difference. Of those 68 pass attempts, only half of them went to wide receivers. That means you’d have to expect Coleman to produce between the 20’s and that’s not his MO. I’m only seeing him haul in around 50 receptions for 700 yards and 5 touchdowns putting him at WR49 for last season.
Dynasty Value
Keon Coleman does have quite a bit of dynasty value. In fact, he has much more dynasty value than he does value in 2024. Coleman is currently the 11th overall player and 7th ranked wide receiver for this rookie class meaning you’ll need to spend a 1st round rookie pick on him in 1QB leagues. I do think this is fair value for him though I could see him falling into the top of the 2nd round if there are RB hungry or QB needy teams in your leagues. However, spending a 1st round rookie pick generally means you are looking for a guy who is going to come in and start immediately on your team and I’m having trouble seeing Coleman do that. Yes, he can be a feasible bye-week fill-in player, but man the headaches that I see coming from this player are enough to frustrate even the most patient of us. Granted, we don’t take players in dynasty for their perceived immediate value, but more for their long-term outlook, but I’d be lying if I said the short-term isn’t important in dynasty leagues as well. If you have a taxi squad and can freely move players in and out of it during the season, you will be fine stashing him. If you can’t move players once the season starts, you’re going to have to burn the roster spot on your bench. He will have big games, but they will be few and far between. Kind of like former Bills’ receiver Gabe Davis.
Conclusion
Rookie wide receivers are the best assets to acquire in dynasty leagues, but not so much in redraft leagues. My wife, a diehard FSU fan, would kill me if she saw what I was writing about Keon Coleman, but the fact remains that it is true. Coleman has all of the talent in the world and landed in the right spot to thrive and become the alpha receiver he should be, but there are only 2 ways in which this happens. 1) Coleman is fed an ungodly amount of targets throughout the season or 2) Coleman becomes hyperproductive and changes his profile as a receiver overall. I’m in the camp that #1 is more likely to happen, but I’ve seen crazier things before. I realize this article comes off as a “hate” piece towards Coleman, but I do like him as a player and his long-term outlook. I just don’t think he produces right away and if he remains inconsistent, we could see Buffalo discard him and draft another receiver or make a push for one in free agency to replace him.
