Mike Davis Fantasy Forecast 2021
One of the more intriguing running back prospects in 2021 redraft leagues has to be Atlanta Falcons running back Mike Davis. The 28-year old signed a two-year, $5.5 million contract with the Falcons this offseason after being thrust into the starting role for the Carolina Panthers in 2020 and producing quality snaps to replace injured All-Pro running back Christian McCaffery. Let’s assess the strengths and weaknesses of Davis from last season and attempt to translate his skillset into a definitive role on a new offense to gain a better understanding of his 2021 fantasy outlook.
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Reception Stud
What most fantasy managers were surprised about last season was how efficient Davis was when hauling in passes, as he converted 70 targets into 59 receptions for 373 yards and two touchdowns across 15 games. Since Davis saw the fifth-highest target share amongst running backs and was efficient with these valuable opportunities, he finished as the RB18 in half-PPR formats. Even better, he accounted for 12 percent of targets per snap and averaged 4.7 targets per game, tied for sixth-most alongside Ezekiel Elliot and Myles Gaskin.
Matt Ryan may not be at the peak of his profession any longer but he is coming off of a league-leading 626 pass attempts. Sure, new Falcons head coach Arthur Smith replaces Dan Quinn and arrives from Tennessee where he fed Derrick Henry 378 carries in 2020, which some argue could jeopardize Davis’ role as a pass-catcher. However, Davis isn’t a blue-chip running back in the prime of his career like Henry. A lackluster offensive line combined with a pair of elite receiving options in fourth-year wideout Calvin Ridley and rookie tight end Kyle Pitts create the perfect recipe for Davis to be fed a ton of targets in 2021. This is his most valuable asset and Smith will likely design plays for him to be the safety valve for the aging arm of Ryan, resulting in a similar target share for Davis in 2021 despite playing in the fifth offensive system of his career.
A projected 60 to 80 target threshold is enough to justify Davis’ ADP of 58.1 as the RB25 in half-PPR formats. In fact, this is a relatively good value pick if his current ADP holds up through training camp and the preseason, allowing fantasy managers to land a solid RB2 for RB3 value at the end of the fifth round. He will likely be featured as the RB2 in many fantasy lineups if the manager places a premium on top-tier tight end prospects or loads up on elite wide receivers in the first few rounds of drafts. Even fantasy managers who start their drafts with a running back-heavy approach might want to roster Davis as the top running back on their bench or as a relatively safe Flex play in 1QB formats.
Rushing Dud
It’s difficult to ignore the receiving upside Mike Davis offers in PPR formats, however, running backs who finish as RB1s or even high-end RB2s need to possess the ability to manufacture breakaway runs a couple of times per game. A breakaway run can be defined as a carry that exceeds 15 yards or more, which is important considering the advantage given to receptions in PPR formats. Davis saw a 66.5 percent snap share as the definitive RB1 for Carolina in 2020 but only totaled four runs of 15 yards or longer, averaging a 2.4 percent breakaway rate that ranked 42nd amongst running backs last season. He certainly has the ability to juke defenders in space with an average juke rate of 32.1 percent that ranked top-three behind only Nick Chubb and Alvin Kamara. The problem arose when his lack of breakaway speed was exposed by quicker defenders at the second and third levels of an opposing defense. This issue can be seen in the 0.88 points per opportunity he averaged for the Panthers in 2020.
The silver lining in the poor rushing statistics for Davis can be found when looking at his red-zone usage last season in Carolina. He averaged a sub-par 2.4 YPC but found the end zone six times. We all saw Todd Gurley take advantage of Atlanta’s high-octane passing attack last season, finishing with nine rushing touchdowns thanks to frequently being in the red zone. Davis will have to adjust to being the featured running back in new packages, as he only saw the field on 21.2 percent of snaps in the shotgun formation during his breakout campaign last season. If Davis can earn 30 more carries to match the volume Gurley received in 2020, albeit in a new coaching regime, I think he can produce consistently enough in the passing game and near the goal-line to finish the 2021 season as a mid-range RB2 with high-end RB2 upside.
Fool’s Gold or Lottery Ticket?
Studying the pros and cons of Mike Davis reveals a pretty obvious statement. In PPR leagues, Davis should be drafted as a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3/Flex player, while he should be avoided in standard leagues. His ability to score a rushing touchdown every 6.66 attempts inside the 20 is an extremely valuable statistic to remember, as he will be afforded numerous value touches near the goal-line for the Falcons in 2021. He also provides standalone value as a receiving back, having dropped just one of his 70 targets in 2020. This safety gives Davis a massive floor in a Falcons offense loaded with talent that gets an innovative young play-caller at the helm in Arthur Smith.
Davis won’t be churning off any major carries of 15 or more yards and could get carries usurped by Cordarelle Patterson and rookie Javian Hawkins near the goal-line. This is certainly cause for concern but if you’re a fantasy manager drafting Mike Davis in the back of the fifth round, which is his current value in half-PPR formats, you’ll be satisfied enough with his involvement in the passing game to avoid regretting the use of mid-round draft capital. Draft Davis for his efficiency with receptions and the big, 220-pound frame he can use to finish drives at the goal-line, which is a solid combination of traits to possess in the modern NFL.
Mike Davis shouldn’t be considered a league winner but he is definitely not fool’s gold, appearing on a new-look offense with multiple weapons and a pass-happy quarterback. Drafting him as the RB25 will return a good investment and allow for fantasy managers to potentially leverage trade offers for more lucrative pieces after he logs a couple of RB1 weeks. Knowing when to trade a valuable fantasy player can often lead to a championship, which effectively makes Davis a lottery ticket if used as an RB2 or Flex option in plus-matchups. Don’t fade him at his current ADP and instead invest and reap the rewards of a true dual-threat running back who gets a fresh start on an explosive passing offense.
