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Mike Trout Fantasy 2022
The Los Angeles Angels’ star is fully healthy after last year’s problematic calf strain, and he is locked and loaded for the 2022 season.
Once upon a time, not too long ago, Mike Trout was the automatic first overall pick in fantasy baseball drafts. He could hit .300 with at least 40 home runs, and he was a threat to steal 30 bases with comfortably more than 100 runs and RBI.
He had it all.
Then, the Los Angeles Angels’ slugger, quite likely the best hitter of our generation, is no longer a top-five pick? Well, before we say anything else, let’s ease concerns about his 2022 outlook.
Last season, Trout got off to a blistering start at the plate, slashing .333/.466/.624 with a 190 wRC+ in 36 games and 146 plate appearances. He had eight homers, 23 runs, 18 RBI, and a couple of stolen bases before suffering a calf injury in May that was initially going to keep him on the shelf for 6-8 weeks but ended up derailing his year. He didn’t come back from the ailment, as it was clearly more severe than everyone thought.
“I’ve never felt anything like this before. I felt a pop,” Trout explained.
It was a grade 2 right calf strain, but after last season’s fiasco, he is finally healthy and playing spring training games in a loaded lineup.
Trout remains a top hitter, as his short cameo, last season suggests. He had a 190 wRC+, right on par with past performance, so he hasn’t slipped as an offensive player. That should give him a nice fantasy floor, and that’s why you can, and should, consider him near the end of the first round.
Is Trout ‘Injury-Prone’?
Judging by his 36-game sample last year, his offensive skills are intact. So, if you are going to worry about something in regards to Trout, it’s at least understandable to focus on injuries and games played in recent seasons.
Has he become “injury-prone”? That may be a tricky question to answer. From 2013 to 2016, he played 632 out of 648 games, so we have no issues there.
From 2017 to 2021, however, he suited up for 477 out of 708 possible games. That might be a problem. However, many of those games were missed last season. Let’s check how he did from 2017 to 2020:
- 2017: 114 of 162 games played, 33 HR, 92 R, 72 RBI, 22 SB, 1.071 OPS
- 2018: 140 of 162 games played, 39 HR, 101 R, 79 RBI, 24 SB, 1.088 OPS
- 2019: 134 of 162 games played, 45 HR, 110 R, 104 RBI, 11 SB, 1.083 OPS
- 2020: 53 of 60 games played, 17 HR, 41 R, 46 RBI, 1 SB, .993 OPS
It’s evident that Trout can return to early-round production even if he misses 20-25 games, as it happened in 2018 and 2019. He is still a machine, and his offense hasn’t slipped one bit.
Last season’s injury was the first one of his career that has required such a long rehab process, so he deserves a pass for that one. After all, he is still a 30-year old star still in his prime and shouldn’t be considered “injury-prone”.
Where Should You Draft Trout?
As a hitter, he is still pretty much the Trout of old: he won’t hit below .280 and his average ceiling could be as high as .300-.310, he will hit plenty of homers (35-40, with the potential for more), and he is in a good lineup with plenty of run-scoring and run-producing opportunities. During early spring training games, he’s hitting second behind Shohei Ohtani and ahead of Anthony Rendon, Jared Walsh, and Justin Upton.
As a runner, however, expecting Trout to steal more than 10 bases at this point wouldn’t be wise. He had 11 thefts in 2019, his last “full” season (he played in 134 games), and virtually didn’t run in the last two seasons.
In fact, the only reason Trout is no longer a top-five overall selection is because his stolen base potential is now severely capped. It’s normal, though, and it’s nothing to worry about: aging is natural, even for a robot-like Trout. It wouldn’t be wise to expect more than 20 thefts from him, however, and that’s why other players with a higher SB ceiling are being drafted before him.
To sum up, if you are worried about last year’s calf injury limiting his steals, he wasn’t running much in 2019 and 2020 anyway.
So, where should you target Trout? His average draft position (ADP) in Yahoo is 12th, which would be the end of the first round in standard formats. That 10-14 range is where I would be targeting him, with a slight bump if the league in question considers OBP or OPS.
All things considered, we are talking about a generational hitter in a solid lineup who is still in his prime. He won’t steal many bases, but he is not the injury risk that many people think he is. I’ll happily take Trout near the end of the first round, and I’d be thrilled if he made it to me in the second.
