MLB Buy Low Sell High: Early-Season Hitters’ Edition

MLB Buy Low Sell High

Competitive managers know that fantasy baseball is all about value. Nobody is untradeable, and everyone can be had at the right price. Of course, some players are near-untouchable, but you should always be looking to add value. That’s why you should be looking to acquire these three hitters, and get some value out of other red-hot players. Buying low and selling high, the essence of fantasy baseball!

*Important note: All stats are through Monday

Buy low

Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros

Houston Astros’ outfielder Kyle Tucker is a notoriously slow starter. In 2020, he had a .747 OPS in the first month, and it was .610 in 2021. In both years, he finished with well-above marks: .847 and .917, respectively, so you really don’t have to worry about his current.517 mark.

Dusty Baker, his manager, once said that guys with “long levers” take a bit longer to find their rhythm, and he appears to be right about Tucker. If you own him, don’t even entertain an offer unless it is for full value, and then some. If you don’t have him, now it’s the perfect time to send some buy-low offers.

You could find yourself with an outfielder capable of hitting .280-.290 with 35 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and plenty of production in the counting stats.

You may find it hard to believe, but that outfielder who had a .610 April OPS last year ended up slashing .294/.359/.557 and knocking 30 dingers in just 140 games.

Jesse Winker, OF, Seattle Mariners

Jesse Winker, an excellent trade acquisition by the Seattle Mariners, is currently slashing .154/.338/.173, “good” for a .511 OPS. He is yet to homer and doesn’t always play when there is a lefty on the mound, so acquiring him may actually require a leap of faith.

But he was so good in 2021 (and 2020, too) that he is almost inviting you to buy low on him. Between those two seasons, he slashed .292/.392/.552 with 36 homers, 104 runs, 94 RBI, a .401 wOBA and a 147 wRC+ in 668 plate appearances. Wouldn’t you pay for that production?

Part of what’s ailing him may be that he is trying too hard to lift the ball, and that may be messing up his swing and/or timing. During his career, Winker’s groundball rate is usually in the 40 percent range; his line drive rate is between 26 and 27 percent, and his fly ball rate is often in the mid-20s. In 2022, his GB% is at 22.7 percent, and his FB% is at 40.9 percent. He is popping up at a career-high 9.1 percent, too. Once he settles in and lets his natural talent speak for himself, he could take off.

Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox’s star Luis Robert is hitting a paltry .205/.222/.386 in the early going. However, he continues to hit the ball hard often, and according to Statcast numbers, his average should be .340 and his slugging should be .724 (!), so a buy-low offer to his owner should be in store.

Robert’s barrel percentage is at a healthy 15.8 percent, which would be a career-high. He is also striking out less (13.3 percent) and his average exit velocity (91.3 mph) and hard-hit rate (44.7 percent) remain steady and near his career marks.

In other words, the hits and home runs should start falling in no time. He also plays in a very good lineup, so the opportunities for runs and RBI should be there, too. It could be the perfect time to land a premier talent on a (relative) discount.

Sell High

Steven Kwan, OF, Cleveland Guardians

Steven Kwan, everybody’s early-season darling, makes for a textbook sell-high candidate. He comes with recent buzz, so you can probably shoot for a more established asset with a bit more juice in the power and speed categories.

Kwan is a fine real-life player: he has great hitting tool, he doesn’t strike out, has some modest power, is sneaky fast, and has an excellent eye at the plate. In the right format – OBP leagues – he can be an asset.

However, for standard leagues, you could probably find a more productive player if you flip Kwan. His power ceiling may be capped at 15 home runs per year (and the current uncertainty with the ball doesn’t help, either), and he probably won’t steal 15 bases either.

Right now, he is slashing .341/.456/.500, with no homers or steals, but in his last 33 plate appearances, he is at .172/.242/.276: he started coming down to earth a bit before his hamstring injury, one that shouldn’t keep him out of action very long.

He only has one barrel and an 83.1 average exit velocity, which ranks him in the bottom 3% of the league. His 20 percent hard-hit rate is also not optimal, and there is a sizable difference between his .420 expected wOBA and his .367 wOBA. It’s not the end of the world if you keep him, but take advantage of the early-season buzz.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, San Diego Padres

Eric Hosmer was hitting before Tuesday’s game, .375/.397/.482 with a .879 OPS. He also hit his first homer of the year on Tuesday. If you own him, now is a good time to test the waters and see if he can bring something useful in return.

You may have to sell the other manager into thinking Hosmer was motivated by the never-ending rumors saying the San Diego Padres were open to pair his awful contract to a top prospect in order to get rid of him. You can also use the recent homer, or his 112.9 mph max exit velocity (in the top 6% of the league!) in 2022, but do it. Sell him if you can.

This is the same hitter who slashed .269/.337/.395 last year, with just 12 home runs in 565 plate appearances. This is the same guy who had sub-100 wRC+ finishes for the Padres in both 2018 and 2019. And this is the same guy that, before Tuesday, was hitting 3.13 groundballs for every fly ball this year. Sell.

Daniel Vogelbach, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates

Daniel Vogelbach is off to a hot start with the Pittsburgh Pirates, slashing .304/.373/.543 with three home runs and a .916 OPS. He is, however, a sell-high candidate, in case you can get something from him.

The highest batting average of his career has been .219, which came last year. Do we really expect him to suddenly hit .300? I didn’t think so, either. In fact, he is enjoying some really good luck because his hard-hit rate is a middling 34.4 percent, down from 48.7 percent last season, and his xwOBA is .331, right in line with his career numbers and much lower than his .408 actual wOBA.

Most competitive owners know not to expect a lot from Vogelbach, but if someone is willing to bite, let him/her have the hulking first baseman.