Welcome back to the midseason edition of the Rookie Pitchers Report. Back in May, I took a closer look at five rookie pitchers, but since then we’ve seen a number of impact rookies called up to the majors. My goal here is to give you a detailed analysis of each player and some thoughts on whether you should be adding or stashing these players in year-long fantasy leagues and whether or not you should be utilizing them daily in your DFS lineups. Here are five rookies you need to be paying attention to in all fantasy formats.
Logan Allen, LHP – San Diego Padres
2-1, 4.50 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 1.44 WHIP in 18 Innings
18% Owned in Yahoo Leagues
Logan Allen was called up by the Padres on June 18th and pitched a seven-inning gem against the Brewers in his debut. He’s made only three starts for the Padres so far with two of them being really good and one being pretty bad as he was touched up for six runs by the Giants in his last start before the break. He’s yet another good young arm that the Padres have in their system and he’s made a pretty solid case for staying in the rotation for now. He had solid minor league numbers at each level until this year until this season when he was carrying an ERA over 5 at AAA before being called up. He has only a 16.7% K rate so far in the majors but has had a 23% K rate at AAA so he does project as a guy with decent strikeout potential. I’d leave him on the waiver wire for now in your season-long leagues and he’s really only a DFS target if he has an excellent matchup and his price comes back down.
Zac Gallen, RHP – Miami Marlins
0-1, 4.50 ERA, 2.87 FIP, 1.42 WHIP in 12 Innings
36% Owned in Yahoo Leagues
Zac Gallen has not been up with the Marlins for long, making three starts for Miami right before the break. This is a pitcher I am really excited about and he has already shown he can handle himself at the big league level. His minor league numbers are immaculate and he has made a seamless transition to the big leagues. He throws a cutter in addition to his fastball, curveball, and changeup. A lot of young pitchers have only two quality pitches, but Gallen has four and he can use all of them effectively. He’s carrying a 30% K rate right now (although in a small sample size) and should get a chance to stay in the Miami rotation going forward with how well he has pitched. His third start was cut short to two innings by weather, so we really only have two starts to go off so far but there is a lot to like about this young pitcher and the upside he brings to the mound every night. I’d be adding him in season-long leagues and I will continue to target him in DFS on a nightly basis.
Brendan McKay, LHP – Tampa Bay Rays
1-0, 2.46 ERA, 3.57 FIP, .73 WHIP in 11 Innings
53% Owned in Yahoo Leagues
Brendan McKay is a highly-touted prospect not just in the Tampa system but is also a top 10 prospect in all of baseball. He’s a dual-threat player that can pitch and hit and has been deployed as both a pitcher and hitter so far this year. He has mainly been used as a pitcher, making two starts for the Rays right before the break. He was just sent back down to AAA but is expected to rejoin the team as Tampa is just managing his time up in the majors for contract reasons. He was excellent in his debut against the Rangers, allowing only one hit and one walk over six shutout innings. His second start against the Yankees wasn’t quite as smooth as he yielded three runs over five innings. The biggest surprise with his numbers in the majors has been the lack of strikeouts as he’s only struck out six hitters in his 11 innings after carrying strikeout rates in the high 28-40% range in the minors. A simple explanation would be that he just hasn’t had enough time up in the high minors as he started this season in AA and is in only his third pro season. All I know is this kid has some of the best minor league numbers I’ve ever seen and he’s going to be part of one of the best pitching staffs in the American League in the second half of this season. I’d be holding onto him in your season-long leagues and I’ll be ready to target him again as a DFS play when he gets called back up.
Zach Plesac, RHP – Cleveland Indians
3-3, 4.00 ERA, 5.60 FIP, 1.18 WHIP in 45 Innings
18% Owned in Yahoo Leagues
Zach Plesac was sent back down to AAA over the break, but expect him to get called up again soon. The Indians are not getting Carlos Carrasco back (fighting Leukemia), Corey Kluber is still not healthy, and are “actively listening” to offers for Trevor Bauer from other contenders. Plesac has had a mixed bag of results in his eight starts with the Indians. He started out hot but was starting to get hit harder by teams in his last few starts. His 18% K rate in the majors is considerably lower than the 29% rate he was carrying at AAA. He’s still only 24 years old and has very little experience at AAA so he still has a bright future ahead of him even if he might have to take some lumps this year. His ownership in season-long leagues has dropped drastically since it was announced he was being sent down to AAA and with good reason as he was a marginal player with how he’d been pitching lately. Leave him on the wire or cut bait if you haven’t already. We will have to revisit him in August and see if he has fine-tuned some of his repertoires with some more seasoning at AAA.
Jordan Yamamoto, RHP – Miami Marlins
3-0, 1.24 ERA, 2.79 FIP, .90 WHIP in 29 Innings
63% Owned in Yahoo Leagues
Jordan Yamamoto might be the biggest surprise of any of these five youngsters as he made the jump right from AA to the majors and has pitched well for the Marlins in his first five big league starts. He was a 12th round pick and doesn’t have the same prospect pedigree that some of these other pitchers have. However, he’s had arguably the best start of any rookie pitcher this season. In three of his five starts, he has not allowed an earned run and has pitched five or more innings in four of those starts. His 27% K rate has been really impressive considering we’ve seen some of these other guys struggle to whiff major league hitters after dominating in the minors. The only red flags I see are an unsustainable BABIP of .169 and a 35% ground ball rate. The incredibly low BABIP suggests he’s been getting lucky with batted balls and he’ll need to get more outs on the ground going forward as fly balls turn into home runs. His 0% FB/HR ratio means he has yet to allow a home run despite the opposition hitting the ball in the air more often than they are hitting it on the ground. I would continue to deploy Yamamoto in season-long leagues, but be wary of regression and keep your expectations in check. He’s not likely to be this good the rest of the season. His price in DFS is likely to be higher than I am willing to pay for him and he’s a fade candidate for me until we see his numbers even out.
I hope this info helps you and your thought process when building those DFS lineups. I’ll continue to keep looking at trends and stats the rest of MLB season with the goal of unearthing some data that we can use to our advantage.
If you’re not a premium member at FantasyData, click here and consider joining today! FantasyData is the leader in all things fantasy sports including real-time fantasy stats for your season-long and DFS needs!
