The following is a breakdown of six rookie pitchers who have made their season debuts. Some of them I’m buying (stashing in season-long leagues or targeting in DFS) and the others I’m selling.
Griffin Canning (Los Angelas Angels)
Griffin Canning debuted earlier this week and looked sharp through three innings, striking out five Blue Jays without allowing a baserunner. Then the Jays touched him up for 3 runs in the fourth and fifth innings. He was on a short leash in his debut, being yanked after only 82 pitches but he definitely flashed some nice upside with 6 strikeouts of the 18 batters he faced.
Canning was a second-round draft pick from a storied UCLA program that recently produced big-time pitchers like Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer. He doesn’t have quite the same dominating stuff that these two aces have, but he does have four quality pitches and his fastball sits in the mid-’90s. He projects as a middle-of-the-rotation arm and his track record in the minors was impressive which led to him jumping to the majors in only two years, with most of his experience coming at AAA.
BUY Canning in season long and look to target him in favorable matchups in DFS.
Yusei Kikuchi (Seattle Mariners)
Yusei Kikuchi debuted for the Mariners this season to some fanfare as he came from Japan at age 28. Many expected him to be an already polished, major-league ready pitcher after already pitching professionally in Japan, but he’s been pretty mediocre so far. The strikeouts aren’t anything special and a 47% Fly Ball rate has led to 5 homers allowed in just six starts.
To further complicate things, the Mariners have decided to use him as a one-inning starter every fifth start, as a way to limit his innings. I understand this is becoming a popular trend in baseball, but it’s incredibly annoying as a fantasy player and it means you’re going to have to leave him out of weekly lineups when he gets to that fifth start.
SELL Kikuchi in season long and don’t trust him in DFS.
Merrill Kelly (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Merrill Kelly has made six starts for the D-Backs in his rookie season thus far with mixed results. His 3.60 ERA suggests he’s been pretty good, but a 4.46 xFIP tells us he could regress closer to league average going forward. He’s 30 years old, so he’s not your typical rookie. After spending five years working his way up through the minor leagues, he decided to go pitch in Korea for 4 seasons, where he was able to fix his delivery and become a more consistent pitcher. He added some velocity to his fastball, but he’s still not a guy who’s going to throw it past hitters that often. The real improvements were to his secondary pitches, including a cutter that he added to his repertoire. The results have been good, but not great, but there is reason for optimism with the fact that Kelly has so many innings under his belt from his time in Korea.
I’m going to BUY Kelly in season long, as I think he has the potential to be an average starter and innings eater this season and SELL him in DFS on most nights unless he has the absolute perfect matchup. The lack of K-upside is a bummer for DFS purposes.
Nick Margevicius (San Diego Padres)
It’s quite possible that his length or delivery is throwing off the timing of major league hitters the first time they see him. To his credit, he’s managed to keep his walks down and ground balls up. But, I’m still looking for regression to come sooner or later as I just don’t this kid being talented enough to keep this up all season long.
I’m SELLING Margevicius in season long and DFS.
Chris Paddack (San Diego Padres)
Chris Paddack is another Padres rookie to burst onto the scene this year, and this is a kid I am excited about. He didn’t start out as hot as many fantasy owners would hoping for, but he was also having his pitches and innings monitored closely. He’s now pitched six or more innings in three straight starts and has racked up some pretty impressive stats. He’s allowed two runs or less in 5 of his 6 starts and is sporting a spiffy 1.91 ERA while averaging over a strikeout per inning.
Unlike Margevicius, I do the upside for Paddack as a middle-of-the-rotation arm. His fastball sits around 94 and he has a plus changeup that he can use to rack up strikeouts. He’s already been priced up like stud pitcher by DFS sites and many around baseball have high hopes for this 23-year-old.
I’m BUYING Paddack (if he’s still available) in season long and absolutely targeting him in DFS in all formats.
Trent Thornton (Toronto Blue Jays)
Trent Thornton was impressive in his big league debut against the Tigers, striking out 8 while allowing only two hits over five shutout innings. Since then, he’s hit a few rough patches, allowing four or more runs in three of his last five starts. He’s struggling with hard contact to left-handers, walks, and has allowed 5 homers in only 28 innings.
His minor league numbers suggest that he has the potential to be an effective big league pitcher. His strikeouts are still there (10.4 K/9) and a minor league career xFIP of 3.8 suggests that he might just be going through an adjustment period in the big leagues. I’m still intrigued by his upside, but playing in a division with New York, Boston, and Tampa is going to mean a lot of starts against good offenses. And pitching his home games at the Rogers Centre won’t help his home run numbers either.
For now, I’m SELLING Thornton in season long and DFS, but watching him closely because I do think he’s got upside once he figures it out.
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