Week 2 Hitter Matchups
We made it to the 2021 fantasy baseball season. With a couple of days ongoing, we’ll look ahead to the second part of Week 1 or Week 2 in NFBC leagues. In this weekly article, we’ll look ahead at the best and worst weekly hitter matchups to help us stream hitters and/or plan via the waiver wire and free-agent acquisition budget (FAAB). With that, we’ll analyze several hitters on hot streaks or ones facing weak starting pitchers. Sometimes it’s the matchups or volume of games in a given week, but regardless our focus is to find fringy players to stream or plug into lineups in deep leagues (think 15 team leagues or larger).
*Note – COVID-19, injuries, and other factors could impact the schedules and projected starters.
Easier Week 2 Hitter Matchups (April 5 – April 11)
Since the season started on Thursday, April 1st, some leagues have their fantasy scoring period extend through the following Sunday on April 11th or a fresh Week 2 begins on Monday, April 5th. So our focus in Week 2 involves Monday, April 5th through Sunday, April 11th.
- Boston Red Sox – 3 vs. TB, 3 at BAL
- San Diego Padres – 3 vs. SF, 3 at TEX
- Tampa Bay Rays – 3 at BOS, 3 vs. NYY
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 3 at COL, 3 vs. CIN
- Toronto Blue Jays – 3 at TEX, 4 vs. LAA
With most teams playing nine or ten games from April 1st to April 11th, we’re looking at volume or matchups from Monday, April 5th through April 11th. Outside of Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarbrough, the Rays starting rotation looks a bit shaky, so the Red Sox hitters get a bump. Add in the fact the Red Sox play three games at Baltimore, and the fringy Red Sox hitters could produce. For the Padres, it’s about the weak starting rotations for the Giants and Rangers. With the Rays hitters, they play in Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium, both of which rank in the top-5 as hitter-friendly ballparks in the EV Analytics Park Factors. The same goes for the Diamondbacks, playing in Coors and Great American Small Park helps their hitters. For the Blue Jays, it’s about volume with an additional game plus the weak Rangers rotation.
Tougher Week 2 Hitter Matchups (April 5 – April 11)
- Detroit Tigers – 3 vs. MIN, 3 at CLE
- Houston Astros – 2 at LAA, 3 vs. OAK
- Oakland Athletics – 3 vs. LAD, 3 at HOU
- Washington Nationals – 3 vs. ATL, 3 at LAD
- Cleveland Indians – 2 vs. KC, 3 vs. DET
Cleveland and Houston project as the only two teams with five games with most playing six games, so volume looks like an issue for Indians and Astros hitters. However, you’re likely not sitting the top hitters on those teams. For the Tigers, they’re facing a couple of decent rotations since they’ll face Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, and Kenta Maeda. The Nationals look to face the Dodgers elite group of starters plus Max Fried and Drew Smyly, which makes for a tough week.
Week 2 Hitter Matchups – Start/Stream Them
Jake Cronenworth, 1B/2B/SS, San Diego Padres
After an up and down offseason for Jake Cronenworth with additions like Jurickson Profar and Ha-seong Kim, Cronenworth’s playing looked shaky. In Spring Training, Cronenworth hit .279 with zero home runs yet finished with seven walks and eight strikeouts in 43 at-bats. In past projections, Roster Resource projected Cronenworth to bat in the bottom half of the lineup. However, in a recent update, Cronenworth looks to bat in the two-hole, and that’s prime for at-bats and runs yet he’ll likely split time with other bench bats.
The BAT X projects Cronenworth for nine home runs, 59 runs, 50 RBI, and ten steals with a .259 batting average. Nothing too eye-popping, but he put up solid hard-hit metrics with a 10.5% barrel rate (70th percentile) and 42.7% hard-hit rate (68th percentile). The Padres project to face these Giants starters – Anthony DeSclafani, Aaron Sanchez, and Kevin Gausman. Then they face the Rangers with Kohei Arihara, Mike Foltynewicz, and Jordan Lyles. Cronenworth could easily take advantage of the weak starters coming up.
Enrique Hernández, 2B/OF, Boston Red Sox
All signs point to Enrique Hernández leading off for the Red Sox. In Spring Training, Hernández hit three home runs with a .327 batting average to go along with ten walks and eight strikeouts. As a righty, the Dodgers primarily slotted him against lefties, but Roster Resource doesn’t have him as a platoon at this time. In Spring Training, Hernández batted leadoff against a ton of righties, and manager Alex Cora stated Hernández will start the season as their leadoff hitter. Good news for plate appearances and runs in an underrated Red Sox lineup.
Hernández doesn’t typically light up the Statcast data but finished with an above-average 43.1% hard-hit rate (71st percentile) in 2020 yet typically hovered between 34-36%. When we lower the threshold to 100 batted ball events, Hernández finished with 93.2 mph average exit velocity on FB/LD (No. 92) that looked decent near Aaron Hicks and Andrew McCutchen. In Week 2, they will face the Rays for three, then at the Orioles for three. Outside of Tyler Glasnow, the rest of the Rays and Orioles pitchers don’t scare us. Look for Hernández to take advantage of the weak matchups to start the season and continue his Spring Training hot streak.
Bobby Dalbec, 1B, Boston Red Sox
Remember in the Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker movie in the scene where Emporer Palpatine uses the lightning and proclaims power? Well, that describes Bobby Dalbec – straight power! In Spring Training, Dalbec hit seven home runs, the third most amongst all hitters. Unfortunately, he also struck out 21 times with six walks in 47 at-bats good for a 39.6% strikeout rate and 11.3% walk rate. Dalbec will tank your team’s batting average but is better suited for OBP leagues.
In the 2020 small sample, Dalbec crushed the ball with a 22% barrel rate and 43.9% hard-hit rate. When we lower the threshold to 25 batted ball events in 2020, Dalbec ranked 4th with a 99.8 mph average exit velocity on FB/LD. Although it’s a small sample, the power is legitimate with a couple of home runs at 103 mph and 109 mph in Spring Training
Bobby Dalbec’s 2nd HR of the day.
109 mph off the bat (first was 103) pic.twitter.com/5d7dxS6wr2
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) March 3, 2021
The Red Sox play the Rays for three and then at the Orioles for three games. As mentioned earlier with Enrique Hernández, only Tyler Glasnow worries us a bit and we know the Orioles home ballpark rates hitter-friendly. If Dalbec continues the Spring Training hot streak into the regular season, he’ll provide you with some home runs to kick off the 2021 season.
Josh Rojas, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Who led hitters in at-bats during Spring Training? None other than Josh Rojas, who crushed it with four home runs and a .347 batting average in 72 at-bats with seven walks and 19 strikeouts. The Diamondbacks play three games at Coors Field and then three games at home against the Reds. Rojas struggled in his brief major league experience with two home runs, 26 runs, 18 RBI, and five steals with a .206 batting average in 227 plate appearances. Maybe it’s FOMO since I have Rojas on zero teams, or let’s see if Rojas continues the hot streak into the 2021 season.
Randal Grichuk, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
With the Blue Jays hitters, it’s about volume as one of the two teams with seven games. With the George Springer injury, it opens up some playing time for Randal Grichuk in the outfield. Similar to Teoscar Hernández, Grichuk played well in 2020 with 12 home runs, 38 runs, 35 RBI, and one steal with a .273 batting average. The batting average looks like an outlier since Grichuk hadn’t recorded a batting average above .245 since 2015.
Grichuk lowered his strikeout rate to 21.2% in 2020 compared to his 27.7% career strikeout rate. When we dig a little deeper, the main difference in Grichuk’s plate discipline lies in his 12% jump on O-Contact%. Grichuk’s 57.4% O-Contact% in 2019 jumped to 70.2% in 2020. That’s his highest contact rate outside the zone in his career. Notable hitters in 2019 and 2020 with an O-Contact% near Grichuk’s 2020 rate – Freddie Freeman (70.4%), Cody Bellinger (70%), and Nolan Arenado (70%). It’s safe to imagine Grichuk’s O-Contact% falls closer to his career rate of 56.5%.
We’re noting all of that to not expect Grichuk to provide a batting average higher than .250 over a full season. Even Grichuk’s rolling wOBA pictured above shows the hot start to 2020 that tailed off. With a full slate of games in Week 2, Grichuk should play every day and take advantage of the weak Rangers pitchers. Although Grichuk doesn’t typically light up the Statcast data in recent seasons, he uses a pull-heavy (48.4%) and flyball (42.8%) approach in his career, where he taps into the decent power. A volume-based approach for Grichuk as a 4th or 5th outfielder to plug into lineups for 15-team rotisserie leagues.
Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
Everyone’s favorite ball-crushing sleeper in Rowdy Tellez expects to platoon and play against right-handed pitchers. A reminder that the Blue Jays play seven games, and guess how many lefties they project to face against the Rangers and Angels? One. That’s it, meaning fire up Tellez assuming he’s in the lineup, which he should. Below shows the projected starters facing the Blue Jays starting on April 5th with the only lefty in Andrew Heaney. Granted ERA and xERA aren’t the best indicators, but it gives us an idea of who Tellez will face.
Amongst hitters with at least 50 batted ball events, Rowdy Tellez ranked 4th with a 117.4 mph max exit velocity and a 95.9 mph average exit velocity on FB/LD (No. 39) between Bryce Harper and Randal Grichuk. Although Tellez’s barrel rate dropped to 8.4% in 2020 (53rd percentile), he boasted an elite 13.2% barrel rate (91st percentile) in 2019. Give Tellez some playing time and watch him crush.
Alejandro Kirk, C, Toronto Blue Jays
A bit of a leap of faith here, but Alejandro Kirk feels like a sneaky sleeper hitter heading into Week 2. As a righty, Kirk projects to platoon with Rowdy Tellez per Roster Resource. However, Kirk could easily eat into Danny Jansen’s playing time at catcher for a game or two a week. Let’s breakdown the most recent production for both Jansen and Kirk including Spring Training.
Overall, it’s a relatively small sample of 531 plate appearances for Jansen and 397 plate appearances for Kirk in 2019 and 2020. It’s difficult to look at the quality of contact for Kirk with a limited sample of data. However, with Jansen, he doesn’t light up the hard-hit data either with a 5.9% barrel rate in 2019 then 8.6% in 2020. That said, Kirk could hit his way into more playing time as early as Week 2. Some teams may need to play Kirk on two-catcher leagues.
