Monday Night Football Preview
Falcons at Packers -6 I Over/Under 56.5
The NFL had a lot of drama this past week related to COVID, but overall handled it pretty well, and things are back on track, for now. Week four of Monday Night Football is here, and we get another great matchup. The 0-3 Atlanta Falcons will be heading to Green Bay to take on the 3-0 Packers. Both teams have been excellent offensively, and this has the potential to be a high scoring game. The Falcons have had two epic collapses on the year, each time blowing leads of 15+ points. Meanwhile, Rodgers and the Packers are rolling along, playing some of the best football in the league. We have a few injuries coming into this game, which can affect both teams’ receiving options. All salary and spread information was taken from Draftkings.
How The Falcons Win
Hold the lead. Seriously though, the issue with this team is not the offense, as they’re averaging 30 points per game through three games so far. They’ve been able to get out to leads and jump on teams, but unable to close games out. They’re going to have to find a way to slow the Packers offense down by utilizing the running game and controlling the clock. If your defense cant’ stop anyone, the best way fix that is to keep them off the field for as long as possible.
How The Packers Win
The Packers offense is firing on all cylinders right now. They’re averaging 40.7 points per game, and although the plan was to run more, they’ve been slinging it all over the field. The Packers are the better all-around team in this one. There will be plenty of offense here, but ultimately the Packers will be too much for the Falcons defense to handle.
QUARTERBACKS
Matt Ryan ($10,000)
Ryan has been good in his first three games; he’s thrown for seven touchdowns and two interceptions with 960 yards. The Packers have allowed seven passing touchdowns and are surrendering an average of 263 yards per game through the air. The Falcons will be able to throw the ball in this one, and they will have to in order keep up. If they can establish some sort of running game, it will also help to open things up. Ryan will have to be at his best and limit the mistakes to get his team in the win column.
Aaron Rodgers ($11,400)
Looking like his former MVP self in this early year, Rodgers is off to a hot start. He’s thrown for nine touchdowns and no interceptions as he is trying to prove that he’s still got game. The Falcons have given up nine touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks while giving up an average of 362 passing yards per game. Rodgers may be without a few wide receivers in this one, but that shouldn’t stop him from throwing all over this Falcons secondary.
RUNNING BACK
Todd Gurley ($8,200), Brian Hill ($2,800)
I wasn’t on the Todd Gurley train this year, given where he was being taken in drafts this summer. He’s rushed for 197 yards on 49 carries with two touchdowns and has been virtually non-existent in the passing game seeing just seven targets. In a minimal sample size, it looks like the signing has been a bust so far. Hill has been a surprise this year, steadily increasing his snap count each week. Gurley is still out snapping him by a wide margin, but it’s something to keep an eye on moving forward. The Packers have given up 301 yards on the ground and three touchdowns while giving up 24 receptions and two touchdowns through the air to the running back position. If the line can open some holes or they can get into the open field, the running game could get going in this one.
Aaron Jones ($10,800), Jamaal Williams ($3,000)
Jones has seemingly picked up right where he left off last season. He has at least one score in each of his first three games while Williams has yet to find pay dirt. He’s the clear leader in this backfield, out snapping Williams 121 to 81 and is second in the league in rushing yards with 303. The Falcons have given up just 204 yards on the ground with two scores and held Ezekiel Elliott to 89 yards two weeks ago. The Falcons are decent upfront and could be tough to run against.
WIDE RECEIVER
Julio Jones ($8,600), Calvin Ridley ($9,600), Russell Gage ($6,200)
At the time of this writing, Jones and Ridley are on track to play, having been at practice later in the week; with that said, we still need to monitor this situation. Calvin Ridley is who we are focusing on for this one as he came into the season with a lot of hype and came at a discount compared to Julio. He opened the year scoring four touchdowns in his first two games and has gone over 100 receiving yards in all three games. He’s taken over as the number one option in this passing attack for the moment. Gage was a hot pick up after exploding week one for 114 yards. He’s since cooled off, but could provide salary relief and has some upside if either Jones or Ridley is out for this one. The Packers haven’t given up many yards to opposing receivers allowing just 412, but they have allowed five scores to the position. Keep an on practice reports leading up to the game.
Davante Adams OUT , Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($7,000)
I’m leaving Lazard off this list as he will be out for at least a month after having core muscle surgery. Much like most teams this year, the Packers have their own injuries they’re dealing with and could be down two receivers. Adams did not play last week after injuring his hamstring in week two, and with him not being 100%, coupled with the fact the Packers have a bye next week, he may not play in this one either. That leaves us with Valdes-Scantling. He’s more of a big-play receiver capable of going missing at times, such as last week. With no Adams in the lineup, he made for a decent play, except he caught just one ball on four targets for five yards. Even if Adams plays, there’s no guarantee he will be involved; they could roll him out there as a decoy. This is a situation to avoid at this time, at least until we get pregame inactives.
TIGHT END
Hayden Hurst ($5,400)
Hurst has scored touchdowns in back-to-back games now and seems to fit into an offense finally. He did have just one catch for one yard last week, but it was a one-yard touchdown. He’s provided an excellent outlet for Ryan and has proven that he can get downfield on a few busted coverages. The Packers have yet to allow a touchdown to the tight end position this year, but that could change this week.
Robert Tonyan ($4,600)
Rodgers has never been known to utilize his tight end, but Tonyan now has touchdowns in two consecutive games. With the possibility of limited receiving options heading into this one, he can make for a sneaky play.
KICKERS
Elliott Fry ($3,600)
Fry was signed to the practice squad on October 1st and has never kicked at the NFL level. There are too many offensive options this week to trust a rookie kicker in prime-time.
Mason Crosby ($4,000)
Kickers on good offenses are sometimes worth getting into lineups, but even with Crosby’s 81.4 career field goal percentage, it’s not for me this week. There are value plays in his price range, and even below him, I would instead roll the dice with.
PICK
Packers -7 I Over 56.5
LINEUP
- Hayden Hurst- Captain
- Russell Gage
- Matt Ryan
- Calvin Ridley
- Aaron Rodgers
- Robert Tonyan
