NFL Pick’em: Week 4
Aside from injuries and pandemics, we see NFL teams scoring an absurd amount of points so far this season. The overs have hit 60% of the time so far this season, causing the totals to be higher than we have ever seen in the NFL heading into Week 4. Teams have totaled an average of 51 points per game so far this season. We have seven games on this Sunday slate alone with implied totals set to 50 points or higher. We have a bit of an odd week ahead of us, though, as we get many matchups featuring teams that are unfamiliar with each other. A handful of these teams haven’t faced each other since 2016, and some have very few head-to-head matchups all-time that typically help give us an idea of what betting trends to follow. We’ll see how accurate the oddsmakers are after setting some of these massive lines this week.
Speaking of accuracy, Week 3 saw me break even at 7-7 in picks both ATS and O/U, which was the same as Week 2. I went 10-3-1 (77%) in straight-up moneyline picks last week as well. This all brings my season totals to 54% accuracy ATS, 48% O/U, and 69% SU.
For this article, we dig through every game of the Sunday slate to provide the top matchup notes worth knowing with a brief overview and picks for each game. Betting trends are found thanks to Team Rankings with some advanced matchup strength vs. weakness notes provided by Inside Edge. The view of the public here is based on the expert consensus picks at Betting Pros.
You can also find consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 4 of the NFL right here at Fantasy Data. Now, let’s get to the picks!
Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) (O/U 56)
- The Browns are averaging 25 PPG this season.
- The Cowboys have allowed 32.3 PPG this season — third-most in the NFL.
- The Cowboys are averaging 29.3 PPG this season.
- The Browns have allowed 29.3 PPG this season.
- The last time these teams met was 11/06/16.
- The Cowboys have won six of their last eight games against the Browns dating back to 1985 and each of their previous four games against them.
- The UNDER has hit in each of the last four games between these teams, and the implied total hasn’t been more than 49 points dating back to 1985.
- The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against the Browns.
- Dak Prescott has 18 completions for 20+ yards this season — tied for most among NFL QBs.
- Baker Mayfield has not turned the ball over when pressured by the defense this season — tied for best of qualified QBs. Dak Prescott has turned the ball over on 12.0% of plays when pressured by the defense this season — worst of qualified QBs.
- The Cowboys defense has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 15 of 109 attempts (14%) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 9%
- The Cowboys have scored 8 TDs in the red zone this season — tied for sixth-most in NFL. The Browns have allowed 10 TDs when defending in the red zone this season — tied for second-most in NFL.
- 21% of the plays run against the Browns have been in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 16%
- The Cowboys have scored on 49% of their drives since Week 15 of the 2019 season — tied for second-best in NFL. The Browns defense has allowed scores on 50% of opponent drives since Week 15 of the 2019 season — worst in NFL.
- The public likes the Cowboys to win and cover easily with the under hitting.
- Vegas has an implied total of 30-25.5 in favor of the Cowboys.
The Cowboys have a significant advantage as they average 6.4 yards-per-play compared to just 5.5 from the Browns. The Cowboys passing game has been more efficient (66.21% cmp%) than the Browns (62.35%). We have also seen the Cowboys succeed more in converting third downs. The one area where Cleveland has a slight advantage so far this season is in red-zone scoring as they’ve converted 80% of their red-zone drives into points compared to 72.7% for the Cowboys.
On defense, the Browns have a slight edge with fewer yards per play, points per play, and a lower completion percentage allowed. The Cowboys have the advantage with a slightly lower third-down conversion percentage allowed, and they have allowed opponents to score on just 58.3% of red zone drives compared to 76.9% for the Browns.
There’s definitely enough in this matchup to make you think that the Browns should be able to try their best and exchange blows, but I wouldn’t bet on the Cowboys losing at home here.
Final Prediction: Cowboys win 30-24
Picks: Cowboys -4.5, Under 56
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Chicago Bears (O/U 44.5)
- The Colts are averaging 28 PPG this season.
- The Bears have allowed 20.7 PPG this season.
- The Bears are averaging 24.7 PPG this season.
- The Colts have allowed just 15 PPG this season — fewest in the NFL.
- These teams haven’t met since 10/09/16.
- The Bears are 6-3 in their last nine games against the Colts dating back to 1985.
- The home team has won in each of the last two matchups between these teams.
- The OVER has hit in each of the last two matchups between these teams.
- The Colts defense has six interceptions this season — most in NFL.
- The Colts defense has allowed 396 passing yards this season — fewest in NFL.
- Philip Rivers has been sacked on just 2% of pass attempts (2/94) this season — tied for best of 35 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 6%
- The Colts have converted first downs on just 10 of 33 plays (30%) on 3rd down this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%
- Only 3% of the plays run against the Colts have been in the red zone in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%
- The Bears defense has allowed 2 TD passes this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
- The public likes the Colts to win and cover with the under hitting.
- Vegas has an implied total of 23.5-21 in favor of Indy.
The Colts have the statistical edge in pretty much all aspects of this game. Neither team has been prolific when it comes to third-down conversions, but that is one spot where the Bears have the slight advantage converting 35.7% of the time compared to 30.3% for Indy (worst in the league). Red-zone scoring hasn’t been a strong suit for either team, with the Bears sitting right at 50% while the Colts have scored on 54.6% of RZ drives.
The combination of both of these teams struggling to convert both on third down and in the red zone paired with both defenses showing a strong ability to hold their opponents to lower scores has me feeling excellent about the under.
Final Prediction: Colts win 20-17
Picks: Colts -2.5, Under 44.5
LA Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7) (O/U 43.5)
- The Chargers are averaging 17.3 PPG this season — fourth-fewest in the NFL.
- The Bucs have allowed 20.3 PPG this season.
- The Bucs are averaging 27.3 PPG this season.
- The Chargers have allowed just 19 PPG this season — fourth-fewest in the NFL.
- These teams haven’t met since 12/04/16.
- The Chargers are 6-3 against the Bucs, dating back to 1985.
- The Bucs have won each of their last two games against the Chargers.
- The winner has also covered the spread in each of the last nine matchups between these teams dating back to 1985.
- The OVER is 8-0-1 in the last nine matchups against these teams, with the most recent game being a push.
- The public likes the Bucs to win but the Chargers to cover with the under hitting.
- Vegas has an implied total of 25.2-18.2 in favor of the Bucs.
I was surprised to see the Chargers are averaging more yards per play (5.7) than the Bucs this season (5.4), albeit not by much. The more significant difference has been in scoring as the Bucs have the edge with .44 points per play compared to .23 for the Chargers. The Bucs have also scored on 80% of RZ drives compared to just 55.6% for the Chargers. This will be a big test for Brady and the Bucs as the Chargers defense has been solid defending in the red zone this season, allowing scores on just 22.2% of RZ drives.
This game feels like a walkway win for the Bucs, but I think the Chargers defense can hold them back enough to keep the game close.
Final Prediction: Bucs win 24-20
Picks: Chargers +7, Over 43.5
Seattle Seahawks (-6) at Miami Dolphins (O/U 53)
- The Seahawks are averaging 37 PPG this season — second-most in the NFL.
- The Dolphins have allowed 21.7 PPG this season.
- The Dolphins are averaging 23.3 PPG this season.
- The Seahawks have allowed 28.7 PPG this season.
- These teams haven’t met since 09/11/16.
- The home team has won each of the last four contests between these teams.
- The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Seahawks.
- The Seahawks defense has blitzed on 32% of plays this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%
- Ryan Fitzpatrick has completed 72.0% of passes (13/18) when under pressure this season — best of qualified QBs. The Seahawks have allowed a completion rate of 55.0% when the opposing QB was under pressure this season — sixth-worst in NFL.
- Russell Wilson has thrown for 9.1 yards per attempt when pressured by defenders this season — best of qualified QBs. The Dolphins have allowed 8.3 passing yards per attempt to QBs this season — tied for worst in NFL.
- The Seahawks’ opponents have attempted 52.0 passes per game this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 35.5
- The Seahawks defense has allowed 506.3 yards from scrimmage per game this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 385.6
- The Seahawks have run successful plays on 59.0% of pass attempts this season — tied for best in NFL. Dolphins have allowed successful plays on 58.0% of pass attempts this season — third-worst in NFL.
- The public likes the Seahawks heavily to win and cover with the over hitting.
- Vegas has an implied total of 29.5-23.5 in favor of the Seahawks.
What is typically one of the most run-heavy teams in the league has flipped the script this season as they continue to let Russ cook. They’ve passed the ball 60% of the time this season. Even the Dolphins and their horrid backfield have run the ball at a higher percentage than the Seahawks this season.
Seattle has a distinct advantage by most measurables, and they’ve impressively converted 100% of their red-zone drives into points this season compared to 66.7% for Miami. The Dolphins are converting third downs at a slightly better rate, though at 44.4% compared to 37.9% for Seattle.
Seattle has been shredded on defense this season, but they match up pretty evenly with Miami despite their difference in PPG allowance. Miami has allowed scores on 87.5% of opponents RZ drives this season, so Seattle’s dominance there should continue this week.
Final Prediction: Seahawks win 33-26
Picks: Seahawks -6, Over 53
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3) (O/U 49)
- The Jaguars are averaging 23.3 PPG this season.
- The Bengals have allowed 24.7 PPG this season.
- The Bengals are averaging 22 PPG this season.
- The Jaguars have allowed 28 PPG this season.
- The Jags have won and covered in the last two matchups between these teams with the under hitting both times.
- The implied total has never been this high in a game between these teams.
- The Bengals have allowed just one touchdown pass in the red zone this season — tied for fewest in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed seven passing touchdowns in the red zone this season — tied for second-most in NFL.
- The Jaguars have run successful plays on 59% of pass attempts this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 50%
- The Jaguars defense has allowed opponents to catch 72 of 90 passes (80% Reception Pct) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 68%
- The Bengals defense has allowed 305 yards after contact this season — most in NFL.
- The Bengals have thrown for 20+ yards on 3 of 141 attempts this season — worst in NFL. The Jaguars allowed 20+ yards on 7.0% of attempts this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL.
- The Bengals are averaging 3.1 yards per carry this season — second-worst in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 3.2 yards per carry to RBs this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL.
- The public likes the Bengals slightly to win with the spread a push and the over hitting.
- Vegas has an implied total of 26-23 in favor of the Bengals.
Despite the Bengals being favorites here, the Jags have the statistical advantage in some of the most crucial categories. The Jags are averaging 5.6 yards per play compared to 4.2 for the Bengals and converting 52.9% of third downs compared to just 37.8% for Cincy. The Jags are also scoring on 88.9% of RZ drives compared to only 44.4% for the Bengals.
The defense is where the Bengals have the statistical edge that even things out, but their advantage is marginal in most categories. The biggest edges they have are allowing a 61% completion percentage compared to a sky-high 80% for Jax. Cincy has also allowed scores on 60% of RZ drives compared to 71.4% for Jax.
After breaking everything down, this is one of the most challenging games of the week to peg, making it a matchup worth staying away from for betting purposes. The Jags looked pretty great up until they got blown out by the Dolphins last week in what we thought would also be a tight matchup. Before that, they went toe-to-toe with the Titans and upset the Colts in Week 1. The Bengals are still searching for Joe Burrow’s first career win and are coming off a disappointing tie against the Eagles. They played both the Chargers and Browns closely this season and should have forced OT in Week 1 if it weren’t for a missed chip shot by kicker Randy Bullock at the end of that game. With no distinct trends to follow, I would have to take the Bengals to win but Jags to cover.
Final Prediction: Bengals win 24-22
Picks: Jags +3, Under 49
New Orleans Saints (-4) at Detroit Lions (O/U 54)
- The Saints are averaging 29.3 PPG this season.
- The Lions have allowed 30.7 PPG this season.
- The Lions are averaging 23.3 PPG this season.
- The Saints have allowed 31.3 PPG this season — tied for fifth-most in the NFL.
- The OVER has hit in four of the last five games between these teams despite the implied total being over 50 points in four of those games.
- The Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Lions.
- Offenses facing the Lions have thrown deep balls on 17% of pass attempts this season — tied for highest in NFL; League Avg: 11%
- The Saints have averaged 110.3 penalty yards per game this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50.9
- The Saints defense has stuffed 21 rushing attempts to RBs this season — tied for most in NFL.
- Alvin Kamara has gained 282 yards after the catch this season — most among NFL RBs.
- The Lions defense has pressured opposing QBs on 14% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 26%
- Matthew Stafford has completed just 38% of passes in the red zone this season — worst of 25 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 58%
- Matthew Stafford has not turned the ball over when pressured by the defense this season — tied for best of qualified QBs. The Saints have pressured opposing QBs on 19.0% of passing plays this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.
- The public likes the Saints heavily to win and cover with the over hitting.
- Vegas has an implied total of 29-25 in favor of the Saints.
Neither of these teams are exactly where they’d like to be through three games of the season. Offensively, the Saints have the edge here in most categories, including third-down conversion rate and red-zone scoring, though neither team has been prolific in either.
After offering one of the worst defenses in the league last year, the Lions are actually in a better place right now than the Saints. The Lions have the edge here in allowing a 62.3% cmp% compared to 70.5% for the Saints. The Lions have also allowed teams to convert third downs just 36.4% of the time compared to 46% for the Saints, and RZ scoring has been allowed on only 46.2% against the Lions compared to 57.1% for the Saints.
That being said, both of these teams can’t avoid allowing 30+ points per game to their opponents so far this season, and you’re not going to win many games in that case. A key to this game could be if the Saints can get Michael Thomas back on the field to be a security blanket for Drew Brees, who doesn’t appear to have much zip on his ball these days.
Six of the last seven games between these teams have been in New Orleans, so we don’t know what the home/away trends could look like, but you have to go back to 2008 to find the last time the Saints have won in Detroit. The implied totals have been over 50 points in four of the previous five games between these teams, and they have cruised over that four times as well. Despite the high total here, the over looks like a solid play again though a winner is far from a lock, and despite the definite trend the Saints have ATS, I’m going against that.
Final Prediction: Saints win 31-28
Picks: Lions +4, Over 54
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Arizona Cardinals (-3) at Carolina Panthers (O/U 51)
- The Cardinals are averaging 25.7 PPG this season.
- The Panthers have allowed 27 PPG this season.
- The Panthers are averaging 22.7 PPG this season.
- The Cardinals have allowed 20.3 PPG this season.
- The Panthers have won and covered in each of their last four games against the Cardinals.
- The home team is 7-3 over the last 10 games between these teams.
- The OVER has hit in each of the last four games between these teams, but the implied total has never been more than 50 points.
- Kyler Murray has a passer rating of just 4.9 when under pressure this season — worst of 32 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 61.7
- The Panthers defense has allowed 3-of-10 (30%) TDs through the air this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 63%
- The Panthers have run 20.0% of offensive plays in the red zone this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL. The Cardinals have allowed their opponent to run 20.0% of plays in the red zone this season — tied for second-worst in NFL.
- Mike Davis was stuffed on 38% of rushing attempts in Week 3 — worst of 30 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 17%
- The public likes the Cards to win and cover heavily with the over hitting.
- Vegas has an implied total of 27-24 in favor of the Cards.
This game feels a lot more lopsided than the lines suggest, and I think the oddsmakers are lower on the Cards than they should be because they lost to the Lions last week. The Panthers just don’t have it so far this season on offense, and without Christian McCaffrey, I have very little confidence in them.
The numbers support the Panthers keeping this game reasonably close as they have the edge in yards per play, third-down conversion rate, and completion percentage this season compared to the Cards. The Cards have a drastic advantage where it counts, though, as they’ve scored on 72.7% of their red-zone drives compared to a meager 38.5% for the Panthers.
The Cards defense has also been strong in the red zone this season, allowing opponents to score on just 30.8% of their drives. This has been a problem for the Panthers defense as they’ve allowed teams to score on 70% of red-zone drives this season. The Cards also hold distinct advantages in allowing a lower rate of yards per play, completion percentage, and a rock-bottom 28.6% third-down conversion percentage.
The Cards covering three points feel like free money to win, and I see them returning to a more dominant form this week. There are a decent amount of trends pointing towards the Panthers keeping it close, and their defense has been better than they’ve been given credit for this season. This all leads me to think the under is a play here, but it’s not enough for me to consider the Cards will get upset for a second week in a row.
Final Prediction: Cardinals win 24-20
Picks: Cardinals -3, Under 51
Baltimore Ravens (-14) at Washington Football Team (O/U 45)
- The Ravens have averaged 30.3 PPG this season — tied for fourth-most in the NFL.
- WFT has allowed 27 PPG this season.
- WFT has averaged 20.7 PPG this season.
- The Ravens have allowed 18.7 PPG this season — third-fewest in the NFL.
- These teams haven’t met since 10/09/16 and have only met six times dating back to 1997.
- The UNDER has hit in five of six games between these teams.
- The Ravens have thrown the ball 44.0% of the time this season — tied for lowest in NFL. WFT has allowed 6.1 yards per attempt this season — tied for third-best in NFL.
- WFT has scored on 29% of their drives this season — third-worst in NFL. The Ravens defense has allowed scores on 32% of opponent drives this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL.
- Lamar Jackson has a 125.3 passer rating in the red zone this season — third-best of qualified QBs. WFT defense has allowed a Completion Pct of 88% in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 58%
- The Ravens have given up 10 sacks this season — tied for fifth-most in NFL. WFT has sacked the quarterback 13 times this season — second-most in NFL.
- Dwayne Haskins has turned the ball over on 9.0% of plays when pressured by the defense this season — tied for third-worst of qualified QBs. The Ravens have pressured opposing QBs on 31.0% of passing plays this season — tied for sixth-best in NFL.
- The public likes the Ravens to win by a landslide and cover with the over hitting.
- Vegas has an implied total of 29.5-15.5 in favor of the Ravens.
The Ravens unsurprisingly have a pretty dominating edge over the WFT in most offensive categories this season. One spot I did not expect WFT to have an edge though, is with their 70% red-zone scoring rate, which bests the Ravens’ 53.9%.
On defense, we see WFT fare slightly better in some important categories. They’ve allowed a 64.1% completion percentage to their opponents compared to 65.8% from the Ravens. WFT also has allowed opponents to convert third-downs just 37.8% of the time compared to 47.1% from the Ravens. Lastly, WFT has allowed opponents to score on 58.3% of RZ drives compared to a gaudy 83.3% mark from the Ravens.
Ultimately, the Ravens defense has allowed much fewer PPG to opponents, which is the most critical number to know, and with the struggles we have seen from the WFT offense, that should continue without strife this week. The total has crept down significantly for this game, making the under less appealing than it once was. I honestly don’t have much faith in the WFT putting up more than 14 points in this game, which leaves a lot of ground for the Ravens to cover to push the over. They’re capable of doing it and could be looking to release their frustrations after getting the snot beat out of them by the Chiefs, and WFT is coming into this a little banged up on defense. The spread here is massive to cover, but this is probably one of the most lopsided games we will see in the league all season.
Final Prediction: Ravens win 33-16
Picks: Ravens -14, Over 45
Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (-3.5) (O/U 53.5)
- The Vikings are averaging 25 PPG this season.
- The Texans have allowed 31.7 PPG this season — fourth-most in the NFL.
- The Texans are averaging 19 PPG this season — fifth-fewest in the NFL.
- The Vikings have allowed 34 PPG this season — second-most in the NFL.
- These teams have only met four times, and the Vikings are 4-0 SU and ATS in the previous matchups.
- The over has hit in three of those four games, but the implied total has never been over 50 points.
- The Texans defense has allowed 573 rushing yards this season — most in NFL.
- The Texans defense has allowed 20+ yard rushes six times this season — most in NFL.
- The Texans have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 49% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 26%
- The Texans have gone three and out on 31% of their drives this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%
- Deshaun Watson has thrown for 20+ yards on 12 of 95 attempts this season — tied for third-best of qualified QBs. The Vikings allowed 20+ yards on 13.0% of attempts this season — second-worst in NFL.
- The Vikings defense have not forced a three and out in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 19%
- The Vikings defense has allowed scores on 64% of opponent drives this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%
- Vikings linebackers have missed 11 tackles this season — tied for most in NFL.
- Kirk Cousins has committed six turnovers on 91 plays (7% turnover percentage) this season — worst of 35 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 2%
- The public likes the Texans to win and cover with the over slightly hitting.
- Vegas has an implied total of 28.5-25 in favor of the Texans.
We avoided a COVID postponement with this game as the Vikings were cleared to play mid-week. The line for this game moved from Houston -5 to -3.5 in a matter of two days through the middle of the week as a result.
The schedule makers had it in for the Texans to start the season with matchups against the Chiefs, Ravens, and the resurgent Steelers. This has led them to an 0-3 record and diminished offensive stats that will likely climb back up to league average by mid-season. For the moment, the Vikings have the statistical edge in yards per play and points per play. The Texans have the advantage with a 67.4% completion percentage. Both teams have been awful at converting third downs this season, but the Texans have a slight edge there at a rate of 38.7% compared to 36% for MIN. The Texans also have an advantage, having converted 85.7% of red-zone drives compared to 75% for the Vikes.
Both teams have been atrocious on defense, though Houston’s results could be more heavily driven by their brutal strength of schedule. The Vikes have had better luck at keeping teams from converting third downs with a 34.3% rate compared to 44.4% for the Texans. Houston fights back with a lower RZ conversion rate allowing teams to score on 46.2% of RZ drives compared to 50% for the Vikes.
Both defenses have been gashed by their opponents, but both offenses here have struggled to move the chains for most of the season. We saw the Vikes passing game come alive sightly more last season on the back of rookie wideout Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins has been a slow starter in his career when it comes to early-season success. The lack of head-to-head trends makes this an even more difficult game to predict, but the Vikes dominate what little sample we have from that. All in all, I think Deshaun Watson is the better QB and can take advantage of this incredibly vulnerable Vikings secondary.
Final Prediction: Texans win 28-26
Picks: Vikings +3.5, Over 53.5
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New York Giants at LA Rams (-13) (O/U 48)
- The Giants are averaging just 12.7 PPG this season — second-fewest in the NFL.
- The Rams have allowed 23.7 PPG this season.
- The Rams are averaging 29.7 PPG this season.
- The Giants have allowed 26.3 PPG this season.
- The Giants are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games against the Rams.
- The OVER has hit in six of the last eight games between these teams.
- The Giants have run the ball on 30% of plays this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 41%
- The Giants have run successful plays on 35% of rush attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%
- The Giants have turned the ball over eight times this season — second-most in NFL. The Rams have forced six turnovers this season — tied for fifth-most in NFL.
- Jared Goff has completed passes for 20+ yards on 17 of his 90 total passing attempts (19%) this season — best of 35 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 9%
- The Rams defense has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 64 rushing attempts to RBs this season. — worst in NFL; League Avg: 9%
- The public likes the Rams heavily to win and cover with the over hitting.
- Vegas has an implied total of 30.5-17.5 in favor of the Rams.
I mentioned before that the Ravens/Washington game was probably one of the most lopsided we’ll see all season. This game is up right up there as well. The Rams, though improved, are nowhere near as dominant as the Ravens, but the Giants are every bit as week as WFT right now.
The Rams have a distinct advantage at pretty much every statistical corner of this game on both offense and defense. The only place I see the Giants having a slight edge that matters is they’ve allowed teams to score on 66.7% of RZ drives compared to 75% for the Rams.
The past matchup head-to-head trends here all support the Giants, but that was from a very different group than the team they’ve assembled now against a very different Rams organization as well.
Final Prediction: Rams win 31-16
Picks: Rams -13, Under 48
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) (O/U 53)
- The Patriots are averaging 29 PPG this season.
- The Chiefs have allowed 20 PPG this season.
- The Chiefs are averaging 30.3 PPG this season — tied for fourth-most in the NFL.
- The Patriots have allowed 22 PPG this season.
- The Chiefs are 4-2 ATS in their last six games against the Pats.
- The OVER has hit in five of the last six games between these teams.
- The Patriots have run successful plays on 55.0% of rush attempts this season — best in NFL. Chiefs have allowed successful plays on 55.0% of rush attempts this season — fifth-worst in NFL.
- Sony Michel has 4.8 yards after contact per carry this season — best of qualified RBs. The Chiefs have allowed 2.8 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — tied for sixth-worst in NFL.
- The Patriots have just two touchdown passes this season — tied for fewest in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed only three passing TDs this season — tied for third-fewest in NFL.
- The Chiefs have been successful on 49.0% of plays they have run this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL. Patriots have allowed their opponents to be successful on 55.0% of plays this season — worst in NFL.
- Patrick Mahomes has no turnovers when under pressure this season (31 plays) — tied for best among NFL QBs
- The public likes the Chiefs to win but the Pats to cover with the over hitting.
- Vegas has an implied total of 29.8-23.2 in favor of the Chiefs.
The Chiefs put on an absolute show on Monday Night Football last week, making easy work of an incredibly tough Ravens team. The Chiefs look every bit as poised to make it to the Super Bowl as they did last season. The Patriots, on the other hand, are looking no worse for the wear after losing Tom Brady and making the switch to Cam Newton under center. The more significant change for the Pats this season is that their defense isn’t the immovable object it was last season.
The Chiefs have the advantage in this matchup in most offensive measures. Despite their new look, the Pats still have an edge on defense, having allowed opponents to convert third downs just 37% of the time compared to 40.6 % for KC. The Pats have also allowed opponents to score 55.6% of the time in the red zone compared to 60% for KC.
While I respect the hurdle the new Pats team has overcome losing such an iconic figure, they’re no match for the Chiefs and especially not after how good they looked last week. I think the Pats are good enough to keep this within one TD, but that’s not enough to cover. Despite the trends of the over hitting, I’m going against that as well, given the strong performance we saw from KC’s defense last week.
Final Prediction; Chiefs win 28-21
Picks: Chiefs -6.5, Under 53
Buffalo Bills (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders (O/U 53)
- The Bills are averaging 31 PPG this season — third-most in the NFL.
- The Raiders have allowed 30 PPG this season.
- The Raiders are averaging 29.3 PPG this season.
- The Bills have allowed 25.7 PPG this season.
- The home team has won each of the last seven games between these teams.
- The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Bills.
- The OVER has hit in each of the last six games between these teams, but the implied total was never above 50 points in any of those games.
- Josh Allen has gained 85% of his total passing yards through the air on 3rd down this season — highest of 33 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 59%
- Josh Allen has 18 completions for 20+ yards this season — tied for most among NFL QBs
- The Bills defense has not allowed any 20+ yard rushes this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
- Raiders WRs have averaged 6.5 yards after the catch this season — third-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed 5.9 yards after catch to WRs this season — tied for third-worst in NFL.
- The Raiders defense has allowed an average of 3.7 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.3
- The Raiders defense has allowed 7 TDs in the red zone to RBs this season — most in NFL.
- The public likes the Bills heavily to win and cover with the under hitting.
- Vegas has an implied total of 28-25 in favor of the Bills.
The Bills have looked strong each week this season and will be a tough team to unseat this season in the AFC East. The Raiders have also taken a step forward this season compared to what we saw from them last year. They couldn’t keep the momentum going after that big Week 2 win against the Saints as they fell to the Pats last week, but they still look like a more well-rounded team overall.
The Bills hold the advantage here in most offensive categories. Both teams offer incredible completion percentages thus far, but the Raiders have to slight advantage at 74% compared to 71.1% for the Bills. The Raiders have also converted third downs at a slightly higher rate of 51.4% compared to 50% for Buffalo. The Bills have the edge with a 66.7% RZ scoring percentage compared to 61.5% for Vegas.
The defense is more of a mixed bag than you would have expected, looking at each team’s PPG allowance alone. The Bills give up slightly fewer yards per play and have allowed opponents to convert just 45.5% of their third downs. Neither team stands out with a solid RZ defense, but the Raiders have been slightly better, allowing teams to score on 61.5% of RZ drives compared to 63.6% for the Bills.
We have a few very distinct betting trends worth considering in this matchup, and despite the home team having a strong trend on their side, I just don’t see enough here that makes me think the Raiders win. The short spread makes it tough to follow the Raiders trend of covering, but it is possible. The hiked-up implied total also makes it hard to follow the trend of the over always hitting in matchups between these teams. Neither defense has been dominant, though, and with the higher scoring we have seen this season in general, these teams could push close to 60 total points in this matchup.
Final Prediction: Bills win 30-28
Picks: Raiders +3, Over 53
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-7) (O/U 46)
- The Eagles are averaging 19.7 PPG this season.
- The 49ers have allowed 15.3 PPG this season — second-fewest in the NFL.
- The 49ers are averaging 29 PPG this season.
- The Eagles have allowed 29 PPG this season.
- The Eagles are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games against the 49ers.
- The winner has also covered the spread in each of the last eight games between these teams.
- The Eagles have thrown for 5.6 yards per attempt this season — worst in NFL. The 49ers have allowed 5.4 yards per attempt this season — second-best in NFL.
- Carson Wentz has a 63.9 passer rating this season — worst of qualified QBs. The 49ers have an average opposing passer rating of 75.3 this season — third-best in NFL.
- The Eagles have scored just 4 TDs in the red zone this season — tied for third-fewest in NFL. The 49ers have allowed only 2 TDs when defending in the red zone this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
- Only 3% of the plays run against the 49ers have been in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%
- The 49ers have turned the ball over one time this season — tied for second-fewest in NFL. The Eagles have forced 0 turnovers this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
- The public likes the 49ers to win but the Eagles to cover with the over hitting.
- Vegas has an implied total of 26.5-19.5 in favor of the 49ers.
If all parties were healthy, this would be an exciting matchup here for Sunday Night Football. Instead, we get two of the most injury-ravaged teams in the league squaring off. The Eagles are missing basically every starting-caliber WR still since last season with former AAF standout Greg Ward as their leading man. Even tight end Dallas Goedert was lost as a receiving option. Alshon Jeffery sounds like he’s close to a return, but it’s uncertain when that may be.
The 49ers send Nick Mullens out for the second week in a row after he just helped lead the 49ers to a tremendous victory last week. The RB and WR corps are still wildly banged up here, but it sounds like TE George Kittle will be back in action.
The 49ers have the statistical edge at pretty much every turn here, both offensively and defensively. The only spot I see the Eagles having a meaningful edge is their defense allowing just a 34.9% third-down conversion rate compared to 42.1% for the 49ers. Otherwise, this game feels like it could be ugly for the Eagles.
Final Prediction: 49ers win 26-17
Picks: 49ers -7, Under 46
