DraftKings NFL Picks Week 4: Chalk, Pivots, and Punts

***By the way, don’t forget to check out the awesome tools that FantasyData added for this year, including Fantasy Projections, a DFS NFL Optimizer, and a DFS NFL Stacking Tool ***

QUARTERBACKS

• BEST BETS: Kyler Murray, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes
• PIVOTS: Matthew Stafford, Deshaun Watson, Jared Goff
• PUNTS: Joe Burrow

Kyler Murray has seen his pass attempts and rush attempt decline for three weeks in a row. His pass attempts may not spike this week because the Panthers allow teams to run all over them. They also allow teams to throw a lot to their RBs. Murray’s carries are likely to pick back up in this one and that’s where we’ve been getting the majority of our points with him, through rush yards and rushing TDs. One of the reason we might expect a few more carries for Murray is due to the health of his WR corps. Nuk and Kirk come into this with questionable tags (Nuk 3 DMP’s, Kirk 3 LP’s). This may prompt Murray to make quicker decisions to tuck and run if Carolina is taking away the WRs he has left on the field. So far, any QB playing the Seahawks has balled out. Cam Newton fell 3 yards short of throwing for 400 yards to make it a hat trick of 400-yard games by QBs against this defense. The Seahawks are making the longest distance travel possible this week to fly down to Miami and play the Dolphins, who found their mojo against the Jags. Ryan Fitzpatrick seems too easy of a play here but sometimes you just have to take the free square in a few builds. The Seattle injury report shows 3 out of the 4 starters in the secondary are going to be questionable (at least) for this game.  Because of the Seahawks porous defense, Carroll has been forced to allow Russell Wilson to cook all game long and he’s been able to throw for at least 4 TDs in every game this year. These two teams are both in the bottom 8 of the league in neutral pace so we’ll see if this game forces Russ to regress toward the mean. In the meantime, he’s worth a play if you’re building several rosters this week. Patrick Mahomes nearly unstoppable and usually makes me regret it when I fade him. I’m probably fading him here, but he has had some nice games against the Patriots in the past. In the last meeting, Mahomes fell just 5 yards short of 300 yards to get the DK bonus and threw 3 TDs. Mahomes hit 300+ and 4 TDs in his first-ever meeting with the Pats but fell to 283 yards and 1 TD in last year’s regular-season meeting. There’s a good chance he goes off here as he has a creative offense and mad skills. I’m trying to figure out if Belichick tries to take Kelce or Hill away from him – of if it’s possible to do both and make the other guys beat them. I have no conclusion yet, but if I come up with something I’ll tweet it out and add the player to my workbook (and probably update this article). As of now, I might be leaning toward Clyde Edwards-Helaire in this match-up.

The Saints/Lions game should produce a nice concentrated group of players to pull from this week. For the Saints, it’s going to be Kamara and Thomas [Note: Thomas has been ruled out as of Friday] and for Detroit, it’ll be Stafford, Golladay, and Hockenson. That is a core group to build around and get exposure to those guys through multiple builds. Matt Stafford stands out here as a guy that may go somewhat overlooked in that he hasn’t produced a big game yet this year. The Saints have allowed opposing QBs to put up 20+ DK points against them every week so far – and that includes Brady’s first game on a new team and Derek Carr. Stafford on his home field with all his weapons back in the fold is one of the better plays of the slate. The Vikings turned over their starting 3 corners from last and now the 3 guys that replaced them are all on the injury report with Hughes (the veteran) turning in back to back DNP’s – and the Vikes top pass rusher (Hunter) has not started practicing yet. If Deshaun Watson can’t ball out this week, then it’s not likely to happen much this year. This is the opportunity to get him as a pivot away from all those high profile QBs priced right around him. The Giants and Rams are both in the top 7 for play speed during neutral situations giving this game the possibility of an uptick in plays for both teams. The Rams OL has a significant advantage in pass blocking in this match-up and the Rams WRs are also in a great spot. This points me back to the QB, Jared Goff. Goff should have an excellent game standing behind his OL with time to pick apart this defense the way Nick Mullens did last week. Joe Burrow is #3 in Red Zone pass attempts this year – a pretty good stat if you’re looking for multi-TD upside QBs. Burrow has thrown the ball at least 36 times in each game, and the 36 was his first career start. The other two games have 61 and 44 attempts. Another nice stat if you’re looking for volume/opportunity. Add in that he’s favored at home against a team Fitzpatrick just scored 3 TDs on and I think we have a solid pivot/punt play here. 

RUNNING BACKS

• BEST BETS: Alvin Kamara, James Robinson, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Kenyan Drake
• PIVOTS: David Montgomery, Mike Davis, Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chris Carson, Josh Jacobs
• PUNTS: Chase Edmonds, David Johnson, Devin Singletary

Alvin Kamara‘s usage has been through the roof with Michael Thomas out of the line-up, and even with Thomas back Kamara should still see plenty of volume. This game has high-scoring potential and there are two guys on the Saints that will carry the majority of the load – Kamara, and Thomas – and the Lions show up on the Match-up chart as a team we can feel good about starting RBs against. [FRIDAY UPDATE: Michael Thomas has been ruled out giving Kamara the extra opportunity boost he’s had the past two weeks.] James Robinson finds himself in a nice match-up here. The Bengals defense ranks bottom 10 against the Jaguars 8th rank in Football Outsiders Adjusted Line Yards metric and the Jags OL grades out 8.4 points (on average) higher than the Cincy DL. The Bengals defense is allowing the 2nd-most rushing yards per game and 5.0 YPC. All signs point to a nice week for Robinson here. On the other side of the ball, I like Joe Mixon as a game theory play. He’s priced right in the middle of a group of RBs that could be a lot chalkier than him. Mixon is getting 20 opportunities per game with a few targets mixed into that total. Joe Burrow said that the Bengals are emphasizing the run game in practice this week. It’s not hard to think that Mixon could have a good game at very low ownership in this spot. With Kareem Hunt not practicing while nursing a groin injury, we might get a full Chubb this Sunday. Nick Chubb would be in line for the majority of touches out of the backfield against a defense that is out-graded (per PFF) in the trenches. We saw what Malcolm Brown did to the Cowboys in Week 1, Chubb should eat here. The Vikes showed signs of having a 3 person offense last week with Jefferson having a big day. If anything, that will give defenses one more player to seriously consider while game-planning and, possibly, give Dalvin Cook just an inch more of wiggle room. Cook also had a big game last week with a full complement of opportunity, thanks to his defense being able to get off the field more. The Texans are getting trucked by RBs this year (4th most fantasy points allowed) and the Vikings shake out at even in Adjusted Line Yards in the OL vs DL match-up. Cook should be able to have a typical Cook game here. SATURDAY UPDATE: Kenyan Drake was originally going to be a chalk fade for me this week but with the status and overall health of the Cardinals WRs, plus the OL advantage over the Panthers DL, and because of the points the Panthers are surrender to RB – now I am surrendering to the chalk and like Drake as a chalky play that could be leaned on heavily in this spot.

On the OL/DL chart in the workbook this week, we can see the Bears have an advantage on the OL against the front 4 of the Colts. David Montgomery has been splitting time in the backfield with Tarik Cohen, but Cohen is on IR leaving Montgomery and Ryan Nall to carry the backfield load. This should get 20+ touches into Montgomery’s hands, with more than 3 targets possible. Montgomery was averaging 5.0 YPC in the first two weeks of the season and might get back into that area again with this favorable match-up. The Cardinals defense has been pretty stout against RB carries but did get toasted by Raheem Mostert and the 49ers RBs through the air. This fits how Carolina is using Mike Davis. Davis has seen 8 and 9 targets in the last two games (32% target share as the bell-cow last week) and comes in priced below $6k. Davis might be more chalky than pivot but I’d rather play Davis for $300 less than Kenyan Drake who has declining point totals on similar opportunity share (Drake not getting targets is hurting his value). If you’re feeling like putting some risk on, then pivot all the way down to Chase Edmonds in this game for $4200. If Hopkins and/or Kirk are out or gimpy, Murray will be looking for someone to throw to. Edmonds is only averaging 3.7 targets per game but that could spike if the Cards are down on WRs. Austin Ekeler finally saw the workload we were expecting from him before the season. He saw 11 targets (catching all of them) and handled 12 carries (4 more than the plodding Joshua Kelley). Ekeler showed the juice in his game and has been all year with 24 evaded tackles and is running a nice range of routes, not just check-down dump-offs. The Tampa defense has been strong across the board this year. The only green spot we see on their chart is for RB Receptions. Ekeler is likely to be a big piece of the Chargers game-plan this week with Mike Williams ruled out. **SATURDAY UPDATE: The more I work through lineups trying to fit rosters together without landing on a ton of chalk, the more I like Josh Jacobs. His opportunity should spike with the rookie WRs out and Waller getting smothered by Milano and company. Raiders OL has an 11 point average PFF grade advantage over the Bills average DL grade, and the Bills DL allows 5.02 Adjusted Line Yards (9th worst).

The pricing for Clyde Edwards-Helaire makes him a pivot down from Robinson or a pivot up from Drake – both of whom should be much chalkier than CEH. This is a game theory play for me as I would expect the Patriots to try to take away the explosive guys like Hill, Kelce, and Hardman (when he is on the field) which will open things up for CEH to take advantage of that 4.6 YPC and 4.8 Adjusted Line Yards the Pats defense is allowing. The Pats will likely prefer the Chiefs to burn up the clock with the run game so they can keep the score closer for longer, perhaps inviting more runs early on and adjusting after the half. At that point, the Chiefs could easily convert CEH’s carries into the 6-8 target range he’s seen the past two weeks. Chris Carson is another game theory/arb play I like this week (if he plays). Everyone is going to stack the passing games for both of these team to high heavens and that Q tag will keep the fish away. Carson caught 2 TDs in week one, so he has proven to be a part of this passing game. Pivot over to Carson in builds you want to get a unique piece from the SEA/MIA game. 

David Johnson has an opportunity to run all over Minnesota after Aaron Jones, Jonathan Taylor, and Derrick Henry have all had their turn to do so. As mentioned above with Watson, if Johnson cannot take advantage of this match-up, he’ll be hard to trust going forward – not that we have much trust in him now. Devin Singletary turned 18 opportunities into 16 points last week and now faces a suspect Raiders run defense that has allowed at least 21 fantasy points to just the rushing aspect of the RB’s job. Now, Josh Allen is sure to steal some of that pie from Devin here and may swipe a rushing TD or 2, which is why I have Singletary in the punt section. He’s not priced like a punt, but if Moss doesn’t play, he has the opportunity to put up a solid game if he gets a TD or two. He’s worth keeping tabs on as we move toward lock and we see Moss’ status. The Raiders’ weakness in run defense has me more interested in Singletary and Allen than any of their individual WRs.

WIDE RECEIVERS

• BEST BETS: Kenny Golladay, Deandre Hopkins, DeVante Parker, Tyler Lockett
• PIVOTS: Preston Williams, Tyler Boyd, Will Fuller, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, DJ Moore, Robby Anderson
• PUNTS: Emmanuel Sanders, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandin Cooks, John Brown, Hunter Renfrow, N’Keal Harry

Kenny Golladay was a sneakier play until Lattimore and Jenkins were ruled out. Now he may be chalky, but he’s in a phenomenal spot to produce this week. Golladay leads the league in fantasy points per route run and Lattimore isn’t going to hold him back here. Assuming Deandre Hopkins plays and is healthy enough to be himself, then we have to consider starting him in this match-up against Donte Jackson, who is allowing 0.32 points per route covered (13th most allowed). Double-digit targets and the 100-yard DK bonus are almost guaranteed with Nuk, plus anything else he can give. The Cards WRs might be the leverage plays against the field rostering Drake against the numbers the Panthers allow to RBs. The Seattle/Miami game shows green blocks on the match-up chart and neither team has the defense to stop this from becoming a shootout (which is what Vegas implies). We’re going to want exposure to the top WRs on either side here. DeVante Parker and Tyler Lockett are the top 2 for me, followed by DK Metcalf and Preston Williams. Depending on how far down the risk slide you’re willing to go, you may even consider Isaiah Ford and David Moore as punt options this week.

Tyler Boyd has one of the best “on paper” match-ups against D.J. Hayden, who is allowing the 3rd most fantasy points per route covered. Hayden has a PFF grade below 30, which puts him just a couple of spots off from being the lowest grade in the league. The Bengals will want to establish a run game but Boyd is in a smash spot we cannot ignore. The best Vikings corner (if he plays) is ranked 95th out of 103 qualified CBs on PFF by coverage grade. The other (if he plays) is worse. Kind of makes you hope they both play. Regardless of who starts for the Vikes, they’re not going to have someone capable of keeping up with Will Fuller in coverage as long as Fuller’s hammy is a full go. I’ll be watching his status leading up to game day. If Fuller can’t play, then I’ll be all over Brandin Cooks in this spot. As mentioned above with Goff, the Rams have a nice advantage on the OL to buy time for routes to develop and Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods to get open. Kupp has the match-up advantage on paper, as Woods is likely to be followed by the Bradberry Blanket, who Woods can beat if pocket time is extended for Goff. If stacking Goff with one of his WRs, I prefer Kupp at a 60/40 exposure split. The top-2 Panthers WRs are interesting in this spot because of the Kirkpatrick concussion on Thursday putting his gameday availability is question. While Samuel is the primary slot, the Panther rotate all three starters through there, along with Seth Roberts. DJ Moore and Robby Anderson are getting the most/only deep shots in this offense giving them the edge when selecting a Panther WR this week to pick on Byron Murphy and/or Kevin Peterson.

Emmanuel Sanders might have the most routes run against the league’s worst CB of the 2020 season (so far), rookie Jeff Okudah. Okudah has allowed nearly half a point per route covered (2nd-worst in the league). The Saints don’t line Sanders up primarily on the same side every time but Okudah has mostly lined up on the same side Sanders has spent his most time this season. Kliff Kingsbury has multiple times this week that he wants to get Larry Fitzgerald more involved in games. With Hopkins and Kirk both DNP or Limited in practices this week, it may force his hand. Fitzgerald hasn’t had much production these past couple of years so this is a tough one to feel good about, especially with the Panthers being so easy to run on. However, Larry gives you leverage against the obvious plays in this game if you’re daring. It might be better to attack the missing safeties with Moore or Anderson though. John Brown should get match-up with either a 2nd or 3rd string CB this week with Damon Arnette out for the Raiders. Nevin Lawson would be first in line to replace Arnette, but he was limited as of Thursday’s practice. Without Arnette and Lawson, the Raiders will have to rely on either of two very inexperienced corners in this match-up. Trayvon Mullen is a pretty good corner and could neutralize Diggs so Allen may find himself throwing several passes Smoke’s way here. There’s also Cole Beasley in the slot against LaMarcus Joyner to pick on but Brown gives us home-run upside. On the other side of this, I expect the Raiders to play from behind and Buffalo to take Waller out of the game with the good coverage of Matt Milano and probably some safety shade. If Oakland watched the tape from last week, they would see Hunter Renfrow getting open on reads where Carr fixated on Waller. If they correct this and Carr progresses to Renfrow sooner, then he should be in line for a big game. [Friday Note: Ruggs and Edwards have been ruled out of this game leading to what should be more opportunity to come Renfrow’s way.] As I explored some line-up builds I kept finding N’Keal Harry available to help squeeze in the rest of my line. Not sure if this will make him chalky or if I’m onto some unique builds. Either way, he’s not the worst punt at WR this week in a game with a 53 point total and the Patriots likely trailing often enough for Cam to throw 35-40 passes. At 24% target share that would equate to a median projection of 8 to 10 targets for Harry.

TIGHT ENDS

• BEST BETS: TJ Hockenson, Mark Andrews
• PIVOTS: Dalton Schultz
• PUNTS: Ian Thomas

The Saints defense has struggled to stop opposing TEs through the first three games of the year. TJ Hockenson is next up and is talented enough to keep this streak going. The Washington Football Team allowed the Eagles TEs to put up 34.9 points against them in week 1. The Ravens, like the Eagles, run their offense from the inside out allowing their TEs to be primary targets on many of the play calls. Mark Andrews caught 3 and dropped 3 of his 8 targets last week so a redemption game is in store for him as well as the entire offense after getting shut down by the Chiefs. Andrews ranks 3rd in aDOT, 5th in Air Yards, and 1st in Red Zone targets per game among TEs. 

Cleveland gave it up to the TE position for the first two weeks before shutting down Logan Thomas last week. The Cowboys offense has plenty of weapons and all of them look good here, but if we want to travel the road of least resistance against the Browns, then we’ll want to get exposure to Dalton Schultz. He’s a long shot play that has done next to nothing this year, but Ian Thomas might have an out-of-nowhere solid game here. Both of the Cards starting safeties are out this week which includes Budda Baker, who has been strong in coverage versus TEs. De’Vondre Campbell could still erase him, but if you need to find a salary-saver and punt at TE, then Thomas might be your guy.  

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

• BEST BETS: Ravens, Rams, Buccaneers
• PIVOTS: Bears, Colts, Chargers
• PUNTS:  Vikings

Ravens will be an angry bunch coming off a loss and face-off against a limited offense. They could easily shut-out the WFT and grab some turnovers or DST TDs to boot. Danny Dimes is still turning the ball over at least twice a game this year and takes 3 sacks per game. The Rams pass-rush could eat him up this week. The stingy Buccaneers defense gets a rookie QB in his 3rd start. Advantage Bucs. Bears and Colts should be fairly low-scoring and feature some QB mistakes and sacks. The Chargers are in a pretty good spot with the Bucs offense all banged up. Godwin and Miller out at WR. Mike Evans possibly playing hurt. Fournette a DNP through Thursday. There’s some sneaky upside here for the Bolts.  

FINAL THOUGHTS

Upon working through the slate and seeing the aggregate of 3 weeks of pricing adjustments, it appears things are going to be tighter from here on. There are fewer punts available (unless a late injury opens up an opportunity) and there are going to be fewer “comfortable” pivots. This week’s main slate is missing a few of the big offenses and/or key players which may narrow the field into predictable builds in the 1-5 entry max contests. It’s also going to cause people to put too much wait on their punts after seeing guys like Burkhead and Wilson payoff last week. After going through the slate with the first fine tooth comb here, I will continue to do so up until lock. My player pool and player exposure percentages will be refined up until we kick-off Sunday morning (West Coast time). If you want to follow along, here’s the link for the Week 4 Workbook again. As always, thanks for reading and have a great week!