Denver Broncos (2-3) vs Los Angeles Chargers (3-2)
- Line: Chargers -4.5
- Total: Over/ Under: 45.5
Breakdown
This Monday Night matchup sees the Broncos visit the Chargers. The Chargers will most likely be without their star receiver, Kennan Allen for a fifth straight week while he is rehabbing a hamstring injury. Mike Williams has been very impressive in Allen’s absence, in 3 of the 4 games without Allen, he recorded more than 110 yards. Denver has a good pass defense but Williams will see plenty of targets. DeAndre Carter and Josh Palmer should see more targets as the second and third receivers for the Chargers this week. Austin Ekeler may have gotten off to a slow start but he has been electric for the past two weeks. Ekeler has 223 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns in his last 2 games. He has also brought in 1 touchdown receiving in both of the past 2 games. If Ekeler can stay hot that takes a lot of pressure off his young quarterback Justin Herbert. Herbert is one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL and continues to build on the great start to his career weekly. Herbert has 10 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions so far through 5 games. I expect Herbert to have a good game even though the Broncos defense has been pretty good this year.
It seems like we’ve seen the Broncos on primetime every week and they have not played up the standard of football I know they can play. The Broncos struggles begin with the usually elite quarterback Russell Wilson. Wilson and the Broncos have only scored 75 points this season, good for a points-per-game average of only 15 through the first 5 games. If the Broncos want any chance to win this very competitive division, they need Russ to play to his normal level. Losing Javonte Williams for the rest of the year is a huge blow to this team, but luckily, they have a formidable backup, Melvin Gordon. A veteran presence in the backfield should help this offense get to where it can go. Courtland Sutton has been very consistent for this offense. Russ’ favorite target so far and it shows. Sutton has 10 or more targets in 3 games so far and has 7 targets in the other games. Sutton only has 1 touchdown this season but if the offense can play up to its potential that number should skyrocket.
Keys To Victory
Denver Broncos: Establish the run game with Melvin Gordon. The Chargers rush defense has been terrible this season. The Broncos passing attack has not been good either this season so the utilization of a good running game would be huge for this offense. Establishing Gordon will allow for the play action to be successful and Russell Wilson is very good when working off play action and rolling out of the pocket.
Los Angeles Chargers: Josh Palmer and DeAndre Carter need to step up. With Keenan Allen most likely out for this matchup that leaves Mike Williams to get the bulk of the defensive focus. Palmer and Carter have both faired decently while filling in but nothing special yet. Palmer should see more snaps in the slot and the Broncos have struggled to defend that. Herbert is good enough to distribute the ball all over the field and these wide receivers could amplify this already explosive offense.
Prop Bet Pick
Mike Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120)
Williams will be covered by the young, elite cornerback Patrick Surtain ll but should see enough opportunity to have a good chance at a touchdown. The Chargers offense moves the ball very well and should provide Williams with the red zone opportunities he thrives in. Williams has had a good year, racking up 392 yards and 2 touchdowns so far. Williams has not scored in the past two games but had over 120 yards in back-to-back games.
DFS Plays
Broncos Offense: Mike Boone should see both rushing opportunities and pass-catching chances. Boone will most likely be the third down and receiving back. He may not get too many opportunities close to the endzone with Gordon and the newly acquired Latavius Murray both being bigger backs but Boone has tremendous upside in the passing game. If the Chargers get out a lead, that will help Boone stay in the game with his ability to run routes out of the backfield.
Chargers Offense: Gerald Everett could see plenty of targets near the line of scrimmage. The Broncos defense is good and a quarterback’s safety valves are his running back and his tight end. Ekeler will be very involved but is very expensive to put in your lineup. Everett is a much cheaper option and is one of the better receiving tight ends in the NFL. Everett has seen 29 targets so far this season and has turned that into 213 yards and 2 touchdowns.
