Monday Night Football: Bills vs. Patriots
For the first time in over a decade, the New England Patriots will not be the AFC East Champions. While New England has begun the rebuilding phase following Tom Brady’s departure to Tampa Bay, the Buffalo Bills have risen to the top of the East division this season, sitting pretty with a sterling 11-3 record. Josh Allen has been playing at an MVP level this season thanks to the addition of Stefon Diggs, while the rest of the team has followed suit. With the Patriots’ playoff hopes having been dashed last week following a loss to the Dolphins, it is my expectation that this game will not be very close, despite taking place at Gilette Stadium. Using the Odds Comparison Tool supplied by BettingData, let’s take a look at this matchup between these division rivals.
Game Info
- Spread: -7 Bills
- Total: 46
- See NFL Live Odds
People forget that the Pats came within a few yards of defeating Buffalo earlier in the year. Were it not for a costly fumble by Cam Newton, the Bills could easily have a 4 in the loss column right now. As sluggish as this Patriots team has looked in recent weeks, they’re definitely capable of beating good teams — as evidenced by their wins over the Ravens, Raiders (maybe not the best example of a “good team” but let’s roll with it), Dolphins, and Cardinals. Yes, those wins did come when New England was attempting to stay in the playoff hunt. But is tanking really a part of the Patriot Way? While the Bills have proven to be a borderline great team this season — ask the Steelers about that — they’re not unbeatable by any means, and the Pats could catch them off guard this week rather easily.
Buffalo Bills
- Overall: 11-3, 9-5 ATS
- Road: 5-2
Two of Buffalo’s three losses have come on the road this season. While they’ve punched their ticket to the postseason and clinched the AFC East, there’s room for the Bills to scooch ahead of the Steelers with a win this week and a Pittsburgh loss to Cleveland. It could be in New England’s best interest to lose this one and drop into the top-ten picks (if possible) but Cam Newton will be playing for his career in this one, as his run as the starter in New England has been abysmal thus far. If the Bills defense — which is ranked 15th against the pass and 19th against the run — allows Newton to play his game the way he wants to, they could easily run into trouble. On the other side of the ball, they should have a slightly easier time pushing the Patriots defense around, as this unit ranks 26th against the run. Though this unit ranks fifth in the league against the pass, they will be without Stephon Gilmore in this one, which could allow Stefon Diggs to wreak havoc. I think Buffalo has a great chance to cover this spread, as Newton will need to avoid turnovers without compromising his own playmaking abilities, a balance that he’s had a difficult time attaining this year. Unless he can play his best game of the year, this Bills team will likely roll to victory with ease.
New England Patriots
- Overall: 6-8, 6-8 ATS
- Home: 4-2
New England has been a historically great home team under Bill Belichick. That has still been the case in this strange season for them, with their wins over Miami, Las Vegas, Baltimore, and Arizona all coming at Gilette Stadium. It’s possible that we could see some Jarrett Stidham action if this one gets out of hand early, which would be delightful to any bettors on the Buffalo side. With Damien Harris’s status for this game up in the air, it’ll take a big performance from the tandem of Sony Michel and James White for New England to keep this game competitive. Stopping the run will be a necessity for the Patriots this week, as Buffalo ranks 21st in the league in team rushing yards-per-game. Devin Singletary and Zack Moss ran wild in their last encounter, totaling 167 yards with their legs. If New England is forced into a pass-heavy game script this game could be a wrap early on. I’m steering clear of any Patriots related bets this week, as I know Bill Belichick would love to own a top-ten selection in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Best Player Props
These odds and more found at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Josh Allen | +120 to Score a Touchdown (Non-Passing)
Allen is always a threat to score with his legs, as evidenced by the fact that he has 25 rushing touchdowns already in his young career. With the Patriots’ commitment to stopping the pass, I think Allen has a good chance to plow into the endzone himself this week.
Damiere Byrd | +115 to Catch 3.5+ Passes
Byrd has caught at least four passes in five games this season but he has remained a constant figure in the huddle for the team. Based on the number of opportunities he’s seen this season, I feel good chasing this prop for Byrd, as the game script will likely ask the Patriots to throw the ball more often than they’d like this week.
Cam Newton | +100 More than 15.5 Completions
I’ll be honest here, I’m terrified to bet on Newton. While he hasn’t had more than 15 completions in five games this season, he’ll have to surpass that number this week. My biggest concern for this prop is the potential for Newton to be benched in favor of Jarrett Stidham.
