Monday Night Football Preview
Bills (-7) at Patriots I Over/Under 46
We’ve made it to Week 16 and the last Monday Night game of the year. This week we have two teams who’ve gone in opposite directions this year. The Bills have already locked up the AFC East while the Patriots have lost the division crown, and perhaps even more crazy will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2008. All spread and salary information is from DraftKings.
HOW THE BILLS WIN
With the division locked up and the Bills aren’t playing for much here. They won’t be letting up on the gas, though, and will not miss an opportunity to stick it to the Pats. The Pats aren’t going to roll over and expect them to go down swinging. The Pats will scheme to neutralize Josh Allen’s running ability and force him into making turnovers.
HOW THE PATRIOTS WIN
It’s been a strange 2020 for the Patriots this year, as they are under .500 and will miss the playoffs. The Cam Newton signing looks like a bust, and with injuries to their running back core, things never got off the ground for them. Defensively they haven’t been terrible this year, but they’ve had trouble putting points on the board; that’s a recipe for failure. They need to tighten up on defense up front to slow down Allen and Bills running game.
QUARTERBACKS
Josh Allen ($12,600)
The Bills quarterback has taken a step forward this year, proving he can lead this team. He’s thrown for 597 yards with four touchdowns and one interception in his last two games and has chipped in 61 rushing yards and an additional two scores on the ground. When these teams last met in week eight, Allen didn’t fare well throwing for only 154 yards and no touchdowns. It was his lowest passing output of the year, but the Pats still let him find the end zone on the ground as he finished with 23 rushing yards and a score. Josh Allen is becoming matchup proof and, with his totals from this year, will be in the top tier of quarterbacks heading into drafts next year.
Cam Newton ($9,000)
Cam Newton will remain the starting quarterback heading into this one. He may have a short leash, though, as the Pats aren’t playing for much at this point. Newton hasn’t had a typical year by his standards and it’s been tough to watch at points. He has 11 rushing touchdowns this year and has eight games where he didn’t throw a touchdown. The Bills allow 248 passing yards per game and have played better as a unit as of late. Newton is in a tough spot this week, making it almost impossible to trust him.
RUNNING BACKS
Zack Moss ($7,400), Devin Singletary ($7,600)
This backfield is almost a dead split week after week. It seems like they each take turns producing in any given week. The good news is that the Pats haven’t been able to stop the run all year, and it seems to have gotten worse as of late. They are allowing 113 rushing yards per game and have surrendered ten touchdowns to running backs this year. Zack Moss makes for an intriguing option this week and should find some room to run.
Damien Harris ($8,400), Sony Michel ($7,000), James White ($6,200)
New England running backs have always been puzzling to try to manage. It’s been easier this year though, as all of them have been terrible. Harris missed last week and is no sure bet to play this week, Michel just returned from IR, and White hasn’t had the volume of targets in the passing games as he has in year’s past. There are plenty of factors that have hindered this running game; they’re losing games and having to play from behind, teams know they have don’t have a legit passing attack, and Cam Newton has taken over as the goal line back. This is a situation to avoid if at all possible.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Stefon Diggs ($11,000), Cole Beasley ($10,000)
The Bills added Stefon Diggs this past off-season, and it has elevated the entire offense. He’s got double-digit catches in four of the last five games and has 130 or more receiving yards in his previous two games. He’s caught fire just at the right time. Beasley has double-digit targets in four of the last five and has over 100 yards in two of his previous three. This offense is crushing it right now. The Pats have played decent against the pass this year, allowing only 138 receiving yards per game, but this passing attack is firing on all cylinders right now. Diggs and Beasley make for solid plays in this matchup.
Jakobi Meyers ($7,200), Damiere Byrd ($4,000)
Jakobi Meyers has been up and down this year but has seen steady production throughout. He’s seen 21 targets in the last three games and found himself back over the century mark last week, going for 111 yards. Byrd hasn’t contributed much since his breakout performance against the Texans, where he went for over 100 yards and his only score of the year. The Bills allow 149 receiving yards per game and 13 scores on the year, so there is room to produce if the Pats can get some offense going. They could also be playing from behind, which is always an opportunity for these receivers to be involved.
TIGHT END
Dawson Knox ($5,600)
The Bills tight end has now scored three touchdowns in his last four games. His highest receiving total on the year is just 36 yards, and without the touchdowns in recent weeks hasn’t been all the reliable this year. He could match up well against the Pats, who allowed 650 yards to the position on the year.
Dalton Keene ($1,400)
Unfortunately, the Pats don’t game plan for tight ends as the Bills have been very friendly to the position this year. They’ve allowed 901 yards and eight scores on the year. Keene is a nonfactor and offers no fantasy upside.
PICK
Bills -7 I Over 46
LINEUP
- Dawson Knox- Captain
- Zack Moss
- Josh Allen
- Stefon Diggs
- James White
- Damiere Byrd
