Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (3-1)
- Spread: Chiefs -7
- Over/Under: 51.5
Breakdown
This AFC West Matchup sees the Raiders visit the Chiefs Monday Night. The AFC West was supposed to be this juggernaut of a division and so far, it has struggled. The Broncos and Raiders have both gotten off to slow starts while the Chargers and Chiefs both have records over .500. The Raiders need to get the passing offense going. Derek Carr has been all right this season, with 1038 passing yards, 6 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. New acquisition Davante Adams has been the only consistent receiving threat in this offense. Adams has 290 yards and 3 touchdowns so far this season. Darren Waller is who the Raiders really need to get going. Waller is one of the elite pass-catching tight ends in the NFL and they have not seemed to utilize him yet through 4 games this season. Waller only has 16 catches this season on 24 targets, 175 yards, and 1 touchdown is a lower result than the Raiders would have wanted at this point in the season. Getting him going will ignite this offense and have them compete in this tough AFC West. Josh Jacobs has been a bright spot in this offense, having his best game of the year in week 4 against the Broncos, with 28 carries for 144 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. If he can build off this, the Raiders offense will take a huge step forward and will help the passing attack.
The Chiefs have had a much better start on offense in comparison. Mahomes has had a very good season even with the speedy Tyreek Hill departing before this season. Mahomes has 1106 yards, 11 touchdowns, and only 2 interceptions so far this season. Can’t talk about the Chiefs without talking about the best tight end in football, Travis Kelce. Kelce has 26 catches, 322 yards, and 3 touchdowns through 4 weeks this season. The questions about this offense stemmed from the wide receivers. Could Juju Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling hold down this wide receiver core? I can’t say the wide receivers have been amazing but they have been good enough. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been the biggest surprise for this Chiefs Offense. 208 yards rushing with 2 rushing touchdowns. Paired with 117 receiving yards and 3 receiving touchdowns. Clyde has been a bright spot for this offense and helped them get off to such a great start.
Keys to Victory
Las Vegas Raiders
Get Josh Jacobs Going. The Chiefs run defense has been great to start this season but the Raiders need to capitalize on Jacobs impressive week 4 performance and keep the momentum going. Establishing the run game will open up the passing game and help the overall offense of the Raiders. Getting Renfrow back in the slot will be a big help as well. Derek Carr could really benefit from having an impressive run game. The Raiders one win so far this season came last week when the run game was stellar. If the Raiders want to compete in this game, get Jacobs going early.
Kansas City Chiefs
Let Mahomes cook. Russ sure isn’t cooking so someone in the AFC West has to and Mahomes is that guy. Mahomes has been great against the Raiders in his career. In 2021 Mahomes threw for 7 touchdowns and close to 700 yards in his two matchups with them last season. The Chiefs rushing attack isn’t too scary and they should not try to force it. Helaire has been good but is not a bell cow back. Pacheco could see work as well but is still a rookie and working into the lineup. Mahomes has got it down all season and I expect a big bounce back from the disappointing loss last week. Let Kelce, Juju, and MVS have good games and that should be all the chiefs need in this matchup. Mahomes is an MVP candidate and knows what it takes to beat the Raiders, don’t overthink it.
Prop Bet Pick
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-130)
I know it’s a chalk pick but he is one of if not the best players on the field. Kelce has three touchdowns already so far and 1 touchdown in back-to-back weeks. He is Mahomes number 1 target and should see plenty of targets in this game, especially in the red zone. The line is set at 51 points, showing that the odd makers think points will be scored. The Chiefs should score a few touchdowns against the Raiders and Kelce should have opportunities to score.
DFS Plays
Raiders Offense: Hunter Renfrow should have plenty of targets in this game. The Raiders took their time bringing him back from injury (concussion) and should return to his normal close-to-the-line-of-scrimmage role. Mack Hollins was great filling in for him but Renfrow is one of the best route runners in the league and one of Carr’s favorite targets.
Chiefs Offense: Isiah Pacheco could be in for some goal-line carries. The Raiders have a good defensive line and Edwards-Helaire is not the power back. Pacheco had a good game last week against Tampa Bay and is looking to build off that. Can see him getting 10 carries in this explosive Chiefs offense.
Skyy Moore is also a good, cheaper option to put into your lineup. With Juju entering this game banged up, Moore could see more opportunities in the slot.
