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Baltimore Ravens (4-2) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2)
- Spread: Ravens -3.5
- Over/Under: 49.5
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Breakdown
After starting 0-2, the Ravens have bounced back and strong and won 4 games in a row. The Ravens have scored 28 or more in each of those wins. The offense has been cooking and running back Derrick Henry is leading the way. Henry has been dominant this season, rushing for 704 yards and 8 touchdowns, both are league leaders through 6 weeks. He has been the perfect compliment to Lamar Jackson. Lamar has thrown for 1,529 yards, 10 touchdowns, and only 2 interceptions. He also added 403 yards on the ground and 2 more scores. Zay Flowers has been the only receiver making plays in the passing game. He has 33 receptions while Isaiah Likely has the second most receptions, at only 18. Getting more pass catchers involved will only make this dynamic offense even better.
Tampa Bay has been led by Baker Mayfield and his league-leading 15 passing touchdowns. The offense has gotten off to a great start and Baker is utilizing multiple targets every game. Chris Godwin is off to an electric start to the season, hauling in 43 catches for 511 yards and 5 touchdowns. He is a great underneath target while Mike Evans catches many of his targets down the field. He’s brought in 25 catches for 311 yards, and 5 touchdowns. The Buccaneers are currently in the midst of a running back by committee approach after Rachaad White missed week 6 due to a foot injury. Sean Tucker took advantage in week 6, rushing for 136 yards and 1 touchdown. Bucky Irving has also been heavily involved and currently leads the team in rush attempts. The Bucs coaches hinted at using the hot hand method when it came to how the running back snaps would be split up.
Keys To Victory
Ravens: Win the Turnover Battle. The Ravens have had a potent offense to start the season. Keeping the ball away from an offense like the Bucs will be crucial in coming out on top in week 7. The Ravens have 5 total turnovers this season. Using the highly effective rushing game that they’ve had so far this season, should control the clock and the pace of play that the Ravens want to play at.
Buccaneers: Stop the Run. Way easier said than done, especially against this Ravens rushing attack, but the Bucs have a strong rush defense. They are rushing for 136 yards per game on average, while only giving up 113 yards against. If they can hold the Ravens to 113 rush yards, that means that Henry and Jackson were both held in check. Making other Ravens pass catchers step up is a good way to win the game, as Flowers has seemed to be the only one contributing consistently.
Prop Bet Pick
Mike Evans Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Evans has hit this line in 3 of the 6 games this season. With the way that Baker has been throwing the ball, getting Evans at this low of a line feels like a good play. The Ravens also have an elite rush defense, allowing just 59 rush yards against per game this season. The Bucs will have to throw and Evans has been a premier receiver in this league for a long time. He should see plenty of targets in this game.
Los Angeles Chargers (3-2) vs Arizona Cardinals (2-4)
- Spread: Chargers -1.5
- Over/Under: 44.5
Breakdown
The Chargers are finding a way to win under new Head Coach, Jim Harbaugh. They are no longer putting it on the back of Justin Herbert to carry this offense, they have a strong rushing attack and one of the league’s best defenses through the first 6 weeks. Herbert had his first game of over 200 pass yards in week 6, a welcoming sign showing that the offense can be balanced. J.K. Dobbins has been great to start the season. Dobbins has averaged 87 yards rushing yards per game and has scored 3 touchdowns. Rookie wideout Ladd McConkey has been a game-changer for the offense. He leads the team in receptions and receiving yards while hauling in 2 touchdowns. The Chargers have not had to rely on the passing game, and the Cardinals do not have a strong rush defense, so expect more of the same from the Chargers. They are doing what it takes to win games, no matter how ugly it looks.
The Cardinals have only scored more than 20 points in 1 of their last 4 contests. The Cardinals offense has gone cold while their defense has been lackluster. Kyler Murray needs to turn it around with the passing attack. He has thrown just 1 touchdown in 5/6 games this season. Only having one multi-touchdown passing game is not good enough for a player of his caliber with good pass-catching weapons. Marvin Harrison Jr. has shown some great flashes this season. He has hauled in just 17 catches but leads the team in receiving yards. Tight end Trey McBride has continued his breakout from last season and seems to be Murray’s top target. McBride leads the team in targets while missing a game. James Conner has been an effective runner this season, averaging 67 yards a game and he has scored 3 rushing touchdowns.
Keys To Victory
Chargers: Win Ugly. Do what it takes all game. Whether that’s relying on Herbert, and Dobbins or kicking field goals and punting to dominate the field position battle. They have done this to this point and it’s got them to a 3-2 record with a team that some thought was going to struggle. Limit the turnovers and play gritty football to ensure a win in a game where the Chargers are favored.
Cardinals: Kyler Murray’s Effectiveness. Kyler needs to supply more efficiency to the offense. He is too good to just be scoring one passing touchdown a game in all but one game this season. Utilizing his legs will be beneficial to opening the rest of the offense. He has a bruising running back in James Conner to compliment his more finesse style of rushing. McBride, Harrison Jr., and Michael Wilson need to be at their best so Kyler and this passing attack can show what they’re capable of.
Prop Bet Pick
Trey McBride Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
McBride has hit this line in 3/5 games this season. He sees so many targets and he has very sure hands. He has seen 6 or more targets in every game this season. The Chargers rank middle of the pack in defending the tight end position. Marvin Harrison Jr. is coming off of a concussion as well so his limited practices all week could see him get off to a slow start.
McBride is also so due to catch a touchdown pass. He leads the team in targets and the backup tight end has 2 receiving touchdowns. McBride to score a touchdown is at (+230) and could be worth a sprinkle in what is shaping up to be a competitive matchup.
