NBA DFS Picks
Games for Wednesday 27th, 2021
Every Wednesday, I’ll be diving into a loaded NBA schedule to find you some legitimate difference-makers for the DraftKings main slate — with the help of our NBA Advanced Metrics, NBA Optimizer, and NBA DraftKings Projections pages.
What you’ll see when you come to this weekly column are our four favorite values of the night. Whether that’s an All-Star that is priced too low and is bound to explode or an absolute bargain that is capable of supporting your high-scoring studs, this is where you’ll want to look before submitting your lineups.
With that in mind, let’s dive into the loaded 10-game slate for October 27, headlined by the Miami Heat taking on the Brooklyn Nets and the Memphis Grizzlies facing the Portland Trail Blazers.
Mo Bamba, Orlando Magic (vs. Charlotte Hornets) – $6,200
Mo Bamba is playing a career-high 30.8 minutes per game this season, and he has responded with 13.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, and 1.0 steals per game (all of those numbers would also be career-best marks). The former Texas Longhorn has always been an intriguing prospect because of his ability to block shots and hit threes (he’s shooting 38.9% on 4.5 attempts per game from deep), but the 23-year-old is now being given the chance to actually go out there and play through mistakes.
This season, Bamba is averaging 32.1 fantasy points per game on DraftKings. The big man now gets to face a Hornets team that is only 20th in the league in defensive rating, meaning he is likely to get some clean looks at the rim. Bamba will be matched up with Mason Plumlee rather often in this game, and Plumlee isn’t much of a scorer. That means that Bamba should be able to avoid foul trouble, but he’ll also put his 7.3% block rate (9th in NBA) to good use against a group of Hornets players that frequently attack the basket.
Bamba has our highest projected points per $1,000 of the night at 6.82. He should be good for at least 30 fantasy points, but a 40-point performance wouldn’t be too shocking.
Josh Giddey, Oklahoma City Thunder (vs. Los Angeles Lakers) – $4,800
Josh Giddey is sixth in our projected points per $1,000 rankings in tonight’s slate, and it’s just extremely tough to beat the value that he offers at his current price tag. Sure, Giddey is facing a Los Angeles team that has been excellent defensively in recent years, but the Lakers are just 22nd in defensive rating this season and could be without LeBron James in this game.
Early in the year, Giddey has been given plenty of minutes (27.3 per game) and a ton of opportunities to make plays with the ball in his hands. Giddey is averaging 9.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.5 steals per game, proving just why everybody was so high on the big playmaking guard heading into the 2021 NBA Draft.
The rookie might be lacking a lot in the efficiency department right now — his jumper is a big swing skill for him and it will take time for that to become a weapon of his — but he is going to continue to fill up the stat sheet in the minutes he plays.
Giddey had 19 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists in a loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday, and he has more of those performances coming in his future. Perhaps he’ll put up some similar numbers here.
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers (vs. Memphis Grizzlies) – $9,400
Damian Lillard isn’t the type of player you’ll normally find on this list, as we are going to try to avoid suggesting superstars as often as we can. However, there are 10 players that are priced higher than Lillard on this slate and the 31-year-old really should be one of the top-five fantasy performers of the night.
Tonight’s meeting between the Blazers and Grizzlies has the highest betting total of the night at 234.5. The Grizzlies also happen to have the worst defensive rating in the entire NBA right now, which means the Blazers should be able to put up a big number in this game.
Ja Morant is Memphis’ weakest link as a defender, and he’s the one that will be matched up with Lillard the most in this game. That means that this is as good of an opportunity as Lillard will get to snap out of his early-season shooting slump. Knowing Lillard, when he does eventually break his cold-shooting spell, he’s going to do so by putting on an absolute show.
Portland might not win this game against Memphis, as the Grizzlies are arguably a better basketball team. However, Lillard is going to do everything in his power to give the Blazers a chance, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he scored at least 35 here. If you’re planning to build your lineup around a star tonight, Lillard should be it.
Bruce Brown, Brooklyn Nets (vs. Miami Heat) – $3,700
If you’re looking for an insanely cheap option to throw into your lineups tonight, you’re not going to do much better than Bruce Brown. Over the last two games, Steve Nash has given Brown 28.5 minutes per game and the 25-year-old averaged 20.0 fantasy points per game over those contests.
Brown doesn’t have the ball in his hands very often, but he’s extremely smart off the ball. The Nets utilize Brown as a roller in pick-and-roll actions, and Brown is an excellent finisher with his feet inside the paint. He also plays extremely hard whenever he’s on the floor, making him a threat to pull down rebounds and also come up with a steal or a block.
When paying less than $4,000 for a player, you can only hope for a 20-point fantasy performance and Brown should be good for that in what should be a great game against the Heat. He’ll mostly be defended by guys like Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson, who are two of Miami’s worst defenders on the floor. Also, Brown should be open for a couple of three-point attempts in this game. He’s not a particularly good shooter or anything, but he can get to the 25-30 range in fantasy points if he’s able to bury one of those looks.
It’s also worth mentioning that Brown is third projected points per $1,000 tonight.
