NBA DFS Picks
Every Wednesday, I’ll be diving into a loaded NBA schedule to find you some legitimate difference-makers for the DraftKings main slate — with the help of our NBA Advanced Metrics, NBA Optimizer, and NBA DraftKings Projections pages.
What you’ll see when you come to this weekly column are our four favorite values of the night. Whether that’s an All-Star that is priced too low and is bound to explode or an absolute bargain that is capable of supporting your high-scoring studs, this is where you’ll want to look before submitting your lineups.
Last Week’s Recap
If you read this story last week, you know that we suggested Mo Bamba, Josh Giddey, and Bruce Brown as three of our four favorites. Those three combined to score 101.25 points on DraftKings, despite only costing a total of $14,700. Having three guys outperforming their projections like that makes it much more likely that you’ll cash in daily fantasy. This lineup below was shared by our FantasyData’s Director of Content. He simply locked my four suggestions into our NBA Optimizer and submitted his lineup into a DraftKings slate.
With that out of the way, here’s a look at my NBA DFS Picks for the 11-game slate for November 3, which features the Atlanta Hawks facing the Brooklyn Nets and the Charlotte Hornets taking on the Golden State Warriors on national television.
Larry Nance Jr., Portland Trail Blazers (vs. Cleveland Cavaliers) – $3,400
Larry Nance Jr. is one of the best values on the board in tonight’s slate, and the fact that this is a revenge game for him — Nance spent nearly four seasons with the Cavaliers — is only a small reason why.
Over the last two games, Nance has seen his role begin to increase a bit. The forward has played 18 minutes in back-to-back games, and he is averaging 7.5 points and 6.5 rebounds per game over the last two. Now, the Blazers play a Cavaliers team with a massive frontcourt, meaning that head coach Chauncey Billups could look to give Nance some more playing time to try to match that size a bit.
Regardless of whether or not Nance plays big minutes, he’s third in our rankings of projected fantasy points per $1,000 tonight. Nance should be able to flirt with a double-double in this game, but his defense could ultimately be a game-changer. Nance is very capable of racking up steals, and this Cavaliers team has multiple players that are loose with the basketball. Cleveland also has a bunch of big men that play big minutes and handle the ball, and those guys will give Nance more opportunities to make defensive plays.
At this price, Nance is just a no-brainer. He should easily get to 20 fantasy points, but he has 30-point upside.
Michael Porter Jr., Denver Nuggets (vs. Memphis Grizzlies) – $6,100
Michael Porter Jr. faced this very Memphis Grizzlies team on Monday when he turned in 28.0 fantasy points on a night where he struggled to shoot the basketball. That has been a theme for Porter in the early portion of the season, as he is shooting just 34.5% from the floor and 23.3% from the outside thus far. Those are numbers that just can’t possibly stick for long, as Porter is a career 51.9% shooter from the field and 42.3% shooter from deep.
Look for the 23-year-old to burst out of his shooting slump in this meeting with Memphis tonight. Only one team in the league has a worse defensive rating than the Grizzlies’ 112.7. Memphis is also giving up 14.3 made threes per game, which is the fifth-highest mark in basketball.
Porter got some clean looks at the rim on Monday, and he’ll bury them if he sees them again. He’s a great value at this price and you shouldn’t get used to seeing him for under $6,500.
Eric Bledsoe, Los Angeles Clippers (vs. Minnesota Timberwolves) – $4,400
One of the names that keeps popping up when utilizing our NBA Optimizer is Eric Bledsoe, who is averaging 23.2 fantasy points per game this season and will now be guarded by D’Angelo Russell, the worst defender in Minnesota’s starting five.
The Timberwolves have been surprisingly awesome defensively to start the year, but the team has had trouble against primary ball handlers this season. Russell has always had trouble on the defensive end, and Bledsoe is very good at attacking the basket. He should have plenty of opportunities to either finish at the rim or pick up an easy assist in the paint.
If Bledsoe is able to knock down a triple or two, he might just be the best value on the board. He’s 13th in our rankings of projected fantasy points per $1,000, as we have him going for 25.97 this evening.
Trey Murphy III, New Orleans Pelicans (vs. Sacramento Kings) – $3,200
Trey Murphy III is priced at less than $3,500 in tonight’s game and that’s especially shocking for a player that plays 21.9 minutes per night and has a defined role on his team. Murphy is shooting 39.4% from the outside this season, and New Orleans needs every bit of his ability to stretch the floor. The Pelicans are also a bit banged up right now, so Murphy could see 25 minutes in this one, which is exactly what happened against the Phoenix Suns.
Last night, Murphy had 18.25 fantasy points against Phoenix and he did so while shooting just 3 for 11 from the field and 2 for 6 from deep. He is more than capable of shooting better than he did in that game, and he now faces a Kings team that has the fourth-worst defensive rating in basketball. Sacramento also plays at the seventh-fastest pace in the league, so there should be a lot of possessions for the Pelicans in this game and a lot of clean looks for Murphy.
With that in mind, don’t be afraid to play him at this price. He easily has 20-point upside in fantasy, and that would do a lot when looking for a cheap player to support your stars.
