NBA DFS Picks
Every Wednesday, I’ll be diving into a loaded NBA schedule to find you some legitimate difference-makers for the DraftKings main slate — with the help of our NBA Advanced Metrics, NBA Optimizer, and NBA DraftKings Projections pages.
What you’ll see when you come to this weekly column are our four favorite values of the night. Whether that’s an All-Star that is priced too low and is bound to explode or an absolute bargain that is capable of supporting your high-scoring studs, this is where you’ll want to look before submitting your lineups.
Last week, Darius Garland ($6,500), Kelly Oubre Jr. ($4,600), Malik Beasley ($4,100), and Jrue Holiday ($7,300) averaged 28.625 fantasy points amongst the four of them, with Beasley’s 9-point outing really dragging down the collective. Garland, however, had 45.25 fantasy points and really performed at a high level for his price. This week, we’ll hope to stay away from the Beasley-like duds.
With that out of the way, here are our four targets for the NBA’s massive 13-game slate on November 24, when the Boston Celtics host the Brooklyn Nets and the Philadelphia 76ers travel to the Bay to face the Golden State Warriors as part of ESPN’s doubleheader:
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Robert Covington, Portland Trail Blazers (vs. Sacramento Kings) – $4,300
This game features two of the league’s six worst defenses as far as defensive rating goes, and the total is currently sitting at a slate-high 224.5 on some books. That means that this game should be an up-and-down affair, offering a player like Robert Covington plenty of chances to get his feet set and knock down some threes.
This season, the 30-year-old forward is shooting 40.7 percent from the outside and he’s doing so on 4.8 attempts per game. Covington is really shooting the ball well and he plays 27.4 minutes per game, making his price look shockingly low here.
Covington is always a good bet to pull down at least five rebounds, and he’s also the type of player that racks up blocks and steals from the wing. On the year, he’s averaging 1.1 blocks and steals per game, and that type of stuff adds up fast in fantasy. Don’t sleep on a defender of his caliber making even more of a mark against a Kings team that can be very sloppy with the basketball.
Lonzo Ball, Chicago Bulls (vs. Houston Rockets) – $6,800
Lonzo Ball is our 14th-ranked value in terms of projected fantasy points per $1,000 tonight, which is pretty impressive considering he isn’t exactly cheap. Ball does, however, have three games of putting up at least 37 DraftKings points over his last eight, and he should be eager to get back out there after shooting 0 for 7 from the floor and 0 for 4 from deep in a blowout loss to the Indiana Pacers last game.
Ball is averaging 12.0 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game this season, and he’s also averaging 1.7 steals per game on the other end. This has arguably been the most productive year of his career, and a lot of that has to do with him shooting a career-high 42.1 percent from deep.
With all of that in mind, there’s a lot to like about Ball’s matchup with a Rockets team that hasn’t won since October 22. Not only should Ball have no trouble getting back on track offensively in this game, but he should make a huge mark with his ability to get in passing lanes and rebound the basketball. This Rockets team is one of the worst in the league offensively, so there will be a lot of missed shots for Ball to go up and grab. Houston also turns the ball over 18.8 times per game, which is the most in the league, by far. That means that Ball could come away with a ton of steals here.
It’s also a positive that not a lot of people will be flocking to add Ball to their lineups after his poor outing the other night. If he plays well, that could give you a huge advantage.
Franz Wagner, Orlando Magic (vs. Charlotte Hornets) – $3,900
Like Ball, there’s a good chance that Franz Wagner won’t be in a whole lot of fantasy lineups in this one. The rookie is coming off back-to-back performances in which he failed to reach the 10-point mark in fantasy, and that could raise some eyebrows amongst casual players. However, Wagner was matched up against a very good Milwaukee Bucks team in both of those games, and he had turned in four outings with at least 28.0 fantasy points in his previous five games.
Against a much more reasonable opponent, look for the 20-year-old wing to get back to playing some good basketball. Only eight teams in the league have a worse defensive rating than Charlotte this season, and only two teams play at a faster pace on the offensive end. That’s a recipe for a solid offensive performance from the Magic, who also play at a relatively quick pace.
In a game that should feature Orlando playing quick and getting good shots off, Wagner should thrive. He’s shooting 36.0 percent from the outside this season, and he’s also tremendous in transition. And like the other guys before him in this article, Wagner is good at getting his hands on the ball on the other end. He’s averaging 1.1 steals per game this season and can easily turn in a block and a steal in this one.
Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics (vs. Brooklyn Nets) – $5,400
Over the last eight games, Marcus Smart is averaging 31.81 fantasy points on DraftKings. The 27-year-old has been serving as Boston’s de facto point guard as of late, as he has racked up at least six assists in seven of the last 10 games. That role has really suited Smart nicely, as he’s taking care of the basketball and making a huge impact on games, despite not shooting very well this season.
With Jaylen Brown back in the lineup for the Celtics, Smart’s on-ball reps should decrease a little, but head coach Ime Udoka would be foolish to completely take the ball out of his hands. The Celtics will continue to turn to Smart to make plays for his teammates, and the former Oklahoma State guard should also begin to shoot the three a bit better with the extra space that Brown will provide the rest of this Boston team.
Smart, who has shot at least 33.0 percent from deep over the last three seasons, is hitting just 27.5 percent of his threes this year. That number is bound to rise in a hurry and it could come in this meeting with the Nets. Smart is normally at his best in big games like these.
