NFL DFS Picks: Week 14
At its heart, daily fantasy is a game of taking information in and using that information to make predictions about the future. Lots of other elements play a role, obviously (not to mention the random outcomes that constantly manifest themselves in a sport with an oblong ball, regardless of what should happen), but any successful DFS player needs to have a nuanced understanding of forecasting uncertainty. Even if you’re not explicitly thinking in such a way, building a lineup requires the following tasks: 1) considering player ability and game environments to identify where points are most likely to be scored; 2) projecting how individual players will perform based those environments, along with the interactions between player scoring in those games; 3) estimating ownership of competitor lineups to create uniqueness while taking an appropriate level of risk.
If you eschew the first task, you’ll find yourself too often on good players in bad spots, where a game won’t shoot out enough to be profitable. If you skip the second, you’ll grab peripheral pieces from the correct games, and you won’t stack appropriately based on the size of your contests. If you pass on the third, your builds will be too chalky to differentiate themselves from the field or too volatile to hit at a justifiable frequency. If there were known quantifiables for every relevant metric (such as the odds of James Robinson being the top-scoring RB on a given slate), we might be able to approximate optimal strategy, but given that isn’t the case, DFS is a radically unsolved game that continues to evolve every single day.
I don’t think everything in the world needs to be defined probabilistically (if you tell a couple at the altar you think their odds of divorce are 75%, I can assure you the true likelihood is… that you’ll probably be thrown out of the wedding), but I’d encourage giving additional thought to where you can find an edge forecasting an area in DFS. Just about all crucial strategic components involve probability on some level (stacking reduces the number of uncorrelated “pieces” we need to identify; prioritizing concentrated offenses increases the odds our stack will hit if the team plays well; and so on), so you’ll be able to better wrap your head around its nuances when you can think in such terms. Now, as far as that whole taking information component I led off with? Well, let’s dive into my Week 14 NFL DFS Picks to get you all juiced up.
Fellow FantasyData expert Chris Mitchell and I co-host a podcast, Slate Breakers, going into further detail on each DFS main slate. Episodes will be embedded in these preview articles once live later in the week, and for even more content, make sure to follow me on Twitter.
Quarterback
After a week where there wasn’t much exciting across the board at QB on paper, a plethora of good options are available—that’ll likely be the case through the final month of the season now that bye weeks are done. Patrick Mahomes ($8100 on DraftKings) is awesome; so too Russell Wilson ($7900), given the Jets have been surprisingly giving to opposing passing games despite getting blown out plenty of times. Aaron Rodgers ($7500) and the Packers have the highest team total on the slate (31.5), while I’m more ready than you even know to stack Justin Herbert ($6800) in this bounce-back spot against the Falcons.
It’s inevitable that Ryan Tannehill ($6700) makes for a solid pivot off Derrick Henry; Matthew Stafford ($5700) and Matt Ryan ($5700) are both guys that could splash with the 300-yard bonus and some TDs, though they’re on the cheaper end for a reason. Note that the Lions played faster under Darrell Bevell in Week 13, and although game script likely factored in, 402 yards for Stafford probably doesn’t warrant him holding pat at his lowest price all year. Even in a tough matchup, Jalen Hurts ($5100) deserves consideration giving his rushing ability.
Favorite Plays: Patrick Mahomes ($8100), Justin Herbert ($6800), Jalen Hurts ($5100)
Running Back
Dalvin Cook ($9400) got a whopping 38 touches last week, Christian McCaffrey ($9200) is unlikely to play, and Derrick Henry ($8700) gets plus opportunity with the Jags. I’m going Henry > Dalvin for the moment, though ownership will factor in, and I have a feeling Cook does end up underowned in tournaments as things shake out. You need spiked efficiency from Aaron Jones ($7600) or Austin Ekeler ($7000) to break a slate, yet each is talented enough to make that happen. I always like James Robinson ($7500), too.
Chris Carson ($6900) is approaching his usual workload, D’Andre Swift ($6500) would be an option if he returns, and David Montgomery ($6500) gets another weak run defense in Houston—though his salary has spiked markedly. It’s never going to be clean in the Colts backfield, but Jonathan Taylor ($5800) put another solid day together, and one has to think Myles Gaskin ($5600) bumps back into the 4-8 target range as the Dolphins work to keep up with the Chiefs.
I think the difference between Devontae Booker ($5300) and Josh Jacobs ($6300) in terms of early-down work isn’t that big, making Booker an intriguing GPP play if you think the Raiders can build a lead should Jacobs sit out again. There’s a nice limited-ceiling PPR role for J.D. McKissic ($4900). I don’t see much else I’m inclined to go to further down (my “favorites” batch of RBs will be one of my more expensive this season); the final guy I want to mention is Ezekiel Elliott ($6600), since although the Cowboys play on short rest in a game with an over/under of just 43.5, he’s always a candidate for touches and TD trips.
Favorite Plays: Derrick Henry ($8700), Aaron Jones ($7600), Chris Carson ($6900), Myles Gaskin ($5600), J.D. McKissic ($4900)
Wide Receiver
Look, at this point in the season we know who the studs are. Davante Adams ($9300) projects as high as essentially any QB; a Chiefs stack with Mahomes and Tyreek Hill ($8500) is similarly expensive to Rodgers-Adams yet also lucrative. D.K. Metcalf ($8400) is a monster himself, and Keenan Allen ($7700) shouldn’t have fewer than 50 yards for a third straight week. In a subsequent tier, Justin Jefferson ($7400) now has a month going of big performances, Michael Thomas ($7100) remains slept on, and Allen Robinson ($6800) is too good to be this affordable.
Robby Anderson ($6200) and Curtis Samuel ($5200) are the only core Panthers WRs available, while Chris Godwin ($6300) and Antonio Brown ($5500) are efficient ways to get exposure to the Bucs in a spot where they should put up points. Brandon Aiyuk ($5400) looked good in his return, D.J. Chark Jr. ($5300) maintains upside, and Nelson Agholor ($4700) also fits the mold of a downfield threat.
Chad Hansen’s ($3900) reward after going breaking 100 yards was to be reverted back to the Texans’ practice squad, but he had a 92% snap share and should be called back up again in Week 14. I still like the potential air yards in any game for Breshad Perriman ($3900) and Darnell Mooney ($3500); Collin Johnson ($3600) and Jalen Guyton ($3200) would be a couple other names to take a look at as punts, also.
Favorite Plays: Davante Adams ($9300), Tyreek Hill ($8500), Keenan Allen ($7700), Robby Anderson ($6200), Antonio Brown ($5500)
Tight End
If you’re paying up at TE, I’d lean paying the additional salary to get all the way up to Travis Kelce ($7400) rather than chasing the career performance from Darren Waller ($6800). The next grouping is priced appropriately, I’d say, as T.J. Hockenson ($5000) seems to offer a decent floor, while Mike Gesicki ($4500) and Hunter Henry ($4400) are more volatile pivots.
Hayden Hurst ($3700) costs his lowest amount all year, and on opposite sides of the same game, Jordan Reed ($3500) and Logan Thomas ($3300) both make sense to plug in. (Admittedly, I’m a bit bummed Thomas’ breakout happened in a game that wasn’t part of the main slate, given that I write him up seemingly every week.) Lastly, since we need extra cheap TEs given my interest in spending elsewhere: you can pay down further with Tyler Eifert ($3100), Drew Sample ($3000), Jordan Akins ($2900), and Cole Kmet ($2900).
Favorite Plays: T.J. Hockenson ($5000), Hayden Hurst ($3700), Logan Thomas ($3300)
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