NFL DFS Picks: Week 8
The “teach a man to fish” proverb is perhaps overused at times, given that it assumes teaching any nuanced skill is both feasible and pragmatic. It eschews the potential for the fisherman to enjoy fishing and giving, instead suggesting only parallel effort is required for providing one fish as opposed to transferring the ability for the layman to become a successful fisherman. Nuance is exchanged for pithiness, and I’m not sure fishing is even the right domain for this sentiment to begin with. I’m also not here to criticize unattributable proverbs.
That doesn’t mean the saying is devoid of any value, though. As a teaching assistant for our introductory social psychology class at Stanford, I spend a disproportionate amount of time thinking about the optimal balance between offering the fish—what I consider in that domain to be raw knowledge, information, or answers—vs. working to construct skill sets that serve to acquiring food, even outside of fishing.
See, the football world moves faster than we can possibly react (with this year being particularly challenging in that regard), meaning there’s no possible way to lay out all the answers to the test, even if I wanted to. When I wrote this article last week, I listed three members of the Chiefs passing attack among my favorite plays; by Sunday, inclement weather tanked the game’s total and I wound up fading it almost entirely. A couple of my interests at RB, Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon, ended up sitting out. Even more, scheduling changes added a new contest to the slate. That’s all not to mention inactives on game day, including the round that arrives for the late window while the early set of games rolls along. So while this piece will always highlight my views of the weekly slate and favorite NFL DFS picks at the time of publication, I’ll work to continue throwing tidbits throughout that might just come in handy for the strategic decisions you need to make on your own. Why not get the fish and the lesson?
As a reminder, I’ve created and will be hosting a new DFS podcast, Slate Breakers, with fellow FantasyData expert Chris Mitchell throughout the season. Episodes will be embedded in these preview articles upon release later in the week, but you can also follow me on Twitter for an immediate notification when a show drops.
Listen to “Slate Breakers DFS Podcast: Week 8 Picks” on Spreaker.
Quarterback
We’ve seen as many as seven squads with team totals over 30 points on a single slate in 2020, but in Week 8, that number has dropped back down to three. That trio: the Chiefs (33.75 implied points), Packers (30.5), and Titans (30.25); knowing that Kansas City is likely to roll over the Jets, however, there isn’t much of a game environment for stacking there. Patrick Mahomes ($8100 on DraftKings) does lead the way as a 19.5-point favorite, albeit having a capped ceiling in this one. I don’t love the matchups for Russell Wilson ($7800) and Josh Allen ($7000), though they’re still in play; it is worth noting that Patriots-Bills, sitting at 43.0, sports the lowest over/under on the slate. This all combines to make Aaron Rodgers ($7600), who torched the Vikings to open the year, the plus-matchup option up top.
I’d be wary of chasing too hard on Justin Herbert ($6900), but man, the kid does look great. Hopefully, you took advantage of the low pricing on Joe Burrow ($6200) last week, who should continue to sling the ball around in a game against Ryan Tannehill ($6800) and the Titans that looks appetizing to my eye. People might want to go to the other top-10 rookie, Tua Tagovailoa ($5600); I’m going to wait for now given a ferocious Rams defense awaits—you could better convince me to take a shot with Cam Newton ($5700) in tournaments. I’m okay going as low as Jimmy Garoppolo ($5400) against what’s been the most friendly team to opposing QBs this season—thanks, Seattle, for all these entertaining showings.
Favorite Plays: Aaron Rodgers ($7600), Joe Burrow ($6200), Jimmy Garoppolo ($5400)
Running Back
Alvin Kamara’s ($8200) receiving work will always make for a unique floor; it’s not a smash spot for him on the road against the Bears, though. That might make Derrick Henry ($8000) a more popular option despite these two getting it done in as different ways as possible, with Dalvin Cook ($7500) and Aaron Jones ($7300) both set to return from injury to round out the range. To me, that makes the no-brainer lock at the position… Kareem Hunt ($6900). Hunt is too cheap given his elite workload (90% snap share in Week 7), and this looks like it could be the day that he pops off.
You could convince me that Jonathan Taylor ($6600) sees more work coming out of Indy’s bye, while Josh Jacobs ($6200) has appeal as a leverage play off Hunt. The salary is less appealing for Giovani Bernard ($5800) now, sure, but he too saw a season-high snap share (76%) and makes sense if Joe Mixon ($6300) misses another game. Phillip Lindsay is in concussion protocol, which would pave the way for Melvin Gordon ($5600) to lead against his former team; Carlos Hyde ($5300) also forecasts to get a start if he himself is healthy. If I have a teaching tip to navigate all these injury situations, it’s to not get married to specific scenarios until we know for certain; you have until each individual player locks to finalize that position of your lineups and shouldn’t feel compelled to make a decision days in advance.
I prefer working with the cheaper RBs in Jets-Chiefs, given it takes relatively little for Le’Veon Bell ($4600) or La’Mical Perine ($4300) to pay off. Some other guys that I have a light interest in right now are Darrell Henderson ($5900) and Myles Gaskin ($5200), while if you want to roll the dice on any of the 49ers options, it’s Jerick McKinnon ($5700)/JaMycal Hasty ($5000), with an off Tevin Coleman ($4000) returns from IR. Most of my final RB decisions will be made based on practice reports throughout the week and inactives, so this list is simply an early crack at it and subject to update.
Favorite Plays: Derrick Henry ($8000), Kareem Hunt ($6900), Jonathan Taylor ($6600), Carlos Hyde ($5300), Le’Veon Bell ($4600)
Wide Receiver
When a player has target shares in his three full games of 40%, 32%, and 37%—then matches up against a team he tagged for 44.6 DraftKings points earlier this season—you play him. In other words, I’m not scared off of Davante Adams ($8800) being the highest-priced guy on the slate. Remember when I said last week that Tyler Lockett ($7100) was going to have splash games even despite the presence of D.K. Metcalf ($7500)? Well, 56 points isn’t a splash; it’s an eruption. My guess would be that Metcalf offers the bigger ownership edge here, so we might just keep jumping back and forth or playing both together.
Either Adam Thielen ($7200) or Justin Jefferson ($6500) would make for a great bring back from Davante, and if you look at the way Titans onslaught stacks often play out, it’s not out of the question to play A.J. Brown ($6900) with Tannehill and Henry. The marked price jump for Tyler Boyd ($6600) compared to Tee Higgins ($5600) and A.J. Green ($4500) makes Boyd tough to get to; for value given their salaries, I’d rank Higgins > Boyd > Green. Keenan Allen ($6200) remains an obvious steal as he continues to see double-digit targets. In a tough divisional matchup, Marquise Brown ($6100) is my favorite Raven for DFS, and I’m quite excited about Brandon Aiyuk’s ($5800) role with Deebo Samuel out of the lineup.
It’s hard to entirely ignore Nelson Agholor ($4700) despite my predisposition of him, while on the flip side of that game, Rashard Higgins ($4200) figures to see a healthy target share going forward. I enjoyed seeing Darnell Mooney ($3500) toast Jalen Ramsey on Monday Night Football even if Nick Foles completely missed the pass; Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3800) is an intriguing leverage pivot; Denzel Mims ($3200) saw seven targets in his debut with a game script that calls for playing from behind. (Also known, for the Jets, as football.)
Favorite Plays: Davante Adams ($8800), Keenan Allen ($6200), Brandon Aiyuk ($5800), Tee Higgins ($5600), Darnell Mooney ($3500)
Tight End
Pricing up George Kittle ($7000) was the right move; the Seahawks look good on paper against TEs, but that’s primarily due to who they’ve played. Many of the defense vs. position metrics at this point in the season do add useful insight; DvP ranks for the figures that are more team-specific/variant, however (TE usage, rushing stats for QBs, receiving stats for RBs) are heavily influenced by opponents (think about measuring a defense’s performance for QB rushing yards allowed against Brady/Rivers/Roethlisberger vs. Lamar/Josh Allen/Newton) need to be considered with more context in mind. You can always go with Travis Kelce ($6600), too, while Darren Waller ($5600) would be my #3 choice.
If not that grouping, I’d pivot down a fair amount, with Hunter Henry ($4300) and Jonnu Smith ($4200) good options, followed by Trey Burton ($3500). Getting multiple scores was certainly serendipitous for Harrison Bryant ($3200), but I could see him carving out more work as the season progresses, and Irv Smith Jr. ($3000) was getting things going more than usual before Minnesota’s bye. There’s still Albert Okwuegbunam ($2800) even cheaper, too.
Favorite Plays: George Kittle ($7000), Jonnu Smith ($4200), Trey Burton ($3500)
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