NFL DFS Week 1 Preview
At long last, NFL season is here, and with it, electrifying Sundays scheduled week after week after week. While we might not be entirely certain about the details of each day to come, Week 1 is decidedly arriving, as the lack of preseason means that September 13th will mark the first full slate of contests—yes, multiple football games happening simultaneously—in eons. Perhaps it is a reminder that we should cherish these moments as they happen—a lesson about how fickle life can be, of how gratifying are privileges that might have been previously taken for granted. I hope, this season, that you can take an opportunity to share such gratitude, to a friend or competitor or analyst or athlete or simply to the game itself. It is much more than the scoreboard that illuminates the field of play.
Throughout the year, I’ll be running an article each Wednesday (of which you’re reading the first piece, and I promise, the most sentimental) to give you an early, high-level look at Sunday’s main slate from a DFS perspective. We’ll take a look at positional value, stacking considerations, and a number of individual players that catch my eye from an initial analysis of the games. Sometimes I’ll be right; sometimes I’ll be wrong—the variance of daily fantasy football is a blessing one second and a curse the next. This series will set you on the right direction to pushing the favor of variance in your direction. After all, I’ve paused my academic career at Stanford to focus on producing football content—I better do a spectacular job to make that real-life contrarian decision worthwhile.
Let’s get into the analysis.
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Quarterback
Lamar Jackson ($8100 on DraftKings; I’ll be focusing on DK’s salaries and scoring system) leads the way at QB, while Dwayne Haskins ($5000) checks in as the cheapest starter on the slate. While it’s at a different position, I’d like to note that the minimum price for RBs right now is $4000, up from $3000 in the past. Time will tell if that’s a permanent move or insurance against free squares opening up given the Week 1 slate comes out so far in advance, but with it being harder to get savings at RB, we might see slightly lower ownership than in the past on the elite players across each position—of which each spot has a single-player priced $1000+ above the rest (Lamar, Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas, and George Kittle).
Seahawks-Falcons and Buccaneers-Saints tie for the highest total on the slate, sitting at 49.0, and thus those games sport the next four QBs by salary. I’d give the edge to the first of those two, though these teams are all great ones to stack given they have relatively narrow touch distributions—make sure to check out our new DFS stacking tool to help hone in on the combinations you want to build this week and beyond. As it turns out, Matt Ryan + Julio Jones + Calvin Ridley combine for the highest projection right now among all QB-WR1-WR2 stacks for a total of 51.9 points. In addition to that median projection, the trio also boasts upside to reach the top of a tournament—though so do the other NFC South teams.
Carson Wentz ($6300) is someone I’m certainly interested in (more on the Eagles later), and Cam Newton ($6100) is an intriguing option for both cash games and tournaments. Those two could comprise a good chunk of my player pool. If you’re going even cheaper, Jimmy Garoppolo ($5800) has a favorable matchup at home against Arizona, though game script could lead to low pass volume. For those feeling spicy, I’m actually okay giving Mitch Trubisky ($5400) a shot as well. He’s demonstrated a ceiling in the past and makes for a GPP dart throw at low ownership to parlay with the salary savings.
Favorite Plays: Matt Ryan ($6700), Carson Wentz ($6300), Cam Newton ($6100)
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Running Back
Christian McCaffrey ($10000) is $500 cheaper than his peak last season, and if he’s on a slate, you always need to think about playing him. Of anyone to jam in, he’d be my guy, and it’s not particularly difficult to do this week.
Because I’ll be working in some McCaffrey, I’m probably not going after the next tier of guys much, but you know who is very likely to be in that range soon enough? Miles Sanders ($6300), who I’ve been talking up since April. You should lock and load Sanders at this price all day long.
Two guys that have rookies lingering behind them but should get the core workload, for now, are Mark Ingram ($5500) and Marlon Mack ($5300). I’m especially interested in using Mack as a leverage play against all the Jonathan Taylor hype of recent, and in a game that could become lopsided quick (Indianapolis at -8.0 on the road against Jacksonville makes them the heaviest favorite on the day), we could see the 100-yard bonus on the ground and end zone trips for Mack. Tevin Coleman ($4200) is another player in a contested backfield that could see more work than we expect in Week 1.
The highest-owned cheap RB will almost for certain be Antonio Gibson ($4000), and RB is the position where I’m most comfortable eating chalk. Can you play Gibson and Sanders in the same lineup? I’d normally lean against it, but at these prices, I’m not opposed—I’ll work back to this matchup again for how you might turn it into a full-on game stack. Chris Thompson/James Robinson ($4000) figure to get the most run for the Jaguars, though among the minimum price options, I’d go Gibson > Thompson > Robinson.
Favorite Plays: Christian McCaffrey ($10000), Miles Sanders ($6300), Marlon Mack ($5300), Antonio Gibson ($4000)
Wide Receiver
In relation to the other top WRs, I’d say that Michael Thomas ($9000) is reasonably safer, but I don’t think that his upper-echelon outcomes are significantly different to justify prioritizing him solely. Chris Godwin ($7100) gets the edge over Mike Evans ($6900) this week based on Evans seeing Marshon Lattimore in coverage, but between Godwin, Davante Adams ($7300), and Julio Jones ($7700), there are plenty of guys who have appealing floor-ceiling distributions when paying up.
A.J. Green ($5700) looks good to go, and you might be hesitant to play him immediately; however, I’m on a roll with these initialed names, and being ahead of the curve could prove profitable in Joe Burrow’s offense. Marquise Brown ($5100) is going to pop one of these days; I’m going to build him in periodically until and after that day comes. Preston Williams ($4500) could see extra looks funneled his way if Stephon Gilmore shuts down Davante Parker ($6000).
But I promised we’d come back to Philadelphia-Washington, and that’s for two WRs in particular: Terry McLaurin ($5600) and DeSean Jackson ($4800). By the time you’re reading this piece, I suspect the industry—podcasts and tweets and articles galore—will have said more than enough about these two. Grab McLaurin for the target share, Jackson for the big-play upside, and hope for fireworks. You could very realistically hammer in five or six players from this game if you want (I’ve already mentioned that many, and we have another position to go); our NFL Optimizer can be a helpful tool for seeing what those permutations might look like.
Tre’Quan Smith ($4000) is a cheap flier I’d like to keep my eye on with Ted Ginn’s departure, Parris Campbell ($3900) has been a best ball target of mine and should carve out a weekly role, and—despite being listed at WR here—it’s worth considering Cordarrelle Patterson ($3400) for the time he’ll get out of the backfield depending on the news surrounding David Montgomery’s health.
Favorite Plays: D.J. Chark Jr. ($6300), D.K. Metcalf ($5800), Marquise Brown ($5100), DeSean Jackson ($4800)
Tight End
George Kittle ($7200) has a salary that would put him as the 4th-priced WR on this slate; is that warranted? To me, that’s pushing it, since Kittle never eclipsed $7000 last season and was typically in the $6200-$6800 range. That said, he’s obviously a great play in a smash setting if you can make it work. Next on the list: Mark Andrews ($6000), Darren Waller ($5900), and Zach Ertz ($5800). I’d lean Andrews/Ertz > Waller for this week.
Hayden Hurst ($4300) and T.J. Hockenson ($4200) function as moderate salary savers, with the former far too cheap if he gets most of Austin Hooper’s prior job and the latter far too talented to not make a jump this season. The news that he’s listed second on the depth chart makes me the slightest bit worried about Mike Gesicki ($4500), though it might benefit him as a DFS play in pushing competitors’ lineups elsewhere.
Going deeper, I suspect Chris Herndon ($3300) will be someone who’s popping on value metrics; I’ve been hearing good things about Irv Smith Jr. ($3100) this offseason, and you could drop as far as Logan Thomas ($2800) if a total punt has its appeal in your lineup.
Favorite Plays: Hayden Hurst ($4300), T.J. Hockenson ($4200), Chris Herndon ($3300)
Find the best bang for buck combo with FantasyData’s stacking page
