NFL DraftKings Thanksgiving Day DFS Picks
Thanksgiving Day DFS Picks
One of the most popular DFS slates of the year is finally upon us: Thanksgiving Day. Each year we are granted a three-game slate, with just one game being played at a time. As we all know, Sundays can get hectic with multiple games going on at once. This Thursday, that is not the case. We can sit back, relax, and hopefully win some money! So hold off on your Thanksgiving Day plans, and be sure to lock in some DraftKings lineups on this special day. All the more reason to do so if your hopes of making your league’s Fantasy Football playoffs have vanished. We’ve reached that point of the year where playoffs are either starting or already well out of reach. You don’t get too many second chances, but there is always DFS to fall back on! Good luck, and have a Happy Thanksgiving!
Dak Prescott $5,700
Following a tough loss in Week 12, the Dallas Cowboys are now faced with a crucial home game vs the Buffalo Bills. They currently sit one game ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles, who have a favorable upcoming schedule (@MIA, vs NYG, @WAS). Though this is not a great matchup on paper vs a tough Bills’ pass defense, the Cowboys are in desperate need of a win. Prescott enters Week 13 with the most passing yards in the league (3,4,33) and is coming off of his worst Fantasy Football performance of the year (7.9 DK pts). The only other time Prescott had single-digit fantasy points this season, he posted 29.2 points the following week at home vs the Packers. In fact, he has yet to score less than 20 DK points at home this season. Prescott is the fourth-highest priced QB on DraftKings at just $5,700, which is the cheapest we have seen him this year. He provides nice salary relief at the position and makes for a nice pivot off of Drew Brees and Matt Ryan.
Mitchell Trubisky $5,300
It’s not too often that we see the cheapest quarterback on the slate with the best overall matchup. Mitchell Trubisky is coming off of a season-high 278 passing yards where he passed and rushed for a touchdown. He now gets the Detroit Lions on a short week who allow the third-most pass yards per game (275.45), and have given up the fifth-most touchdowns through the air (22). Trubisky had himself a nice game at home against the Lions a few weeks back with just under 20 DK points. Given his price tag and matchup, he is worth a long look this Thursday on DraftKings as a nice value play.
Ezekiel Elliott $7,400
Welcome to Zeke-week! Of all the running backs featured on this Thanksgiving Day slate, Ezekiel Elliott is the only one with over a 60% snap-share this season. He is actually one of just four running backs this season to see over 80% of his teams running back snaps (Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, and Le’Veon Bell). On a slate as small as this one, volume is key. Alvin Kamara is the highest-priced running back on the slate but has seen Latavius Murray eat into his workload. The game script should also play into Zeke's favor as the Cowboys are the biggest favorite on the board (-6.5). He should find his way early against a Bills’ run defense who allows the 12th most rushing yards per attempt and the eighth-most rushing touchdowns through the first 12 weeks of the season. Zeke still looking for his first 30 DK point game of the season, and this might just be it.
J.D. McKissic $3,700
At just $700 above the bare-minimum on DraftKings for the Thursday slate, J.D. McKissic is setting up to be a low-owned option for GPP’s. Though he has taken a back seat to Bo Scarbrough over the last couple of weeks, he is still the preferred running back in the passing game. McKissic has at least two receptions in each of his last seven games. He is much more valuable in DraftKings’ full-point PPR scoring, especially at this price point. McKissic's six-reception game at Chicago a few weeks back was a season-high. The Bears' defense has allowed six running backs to catch four or more passes in just 11 games. Of all the running backs priced under $4,000 on this three-game slate, McKissic is the only one to have a game with more than 40% of his team’s snaps (69.9% Week 10). Outside of Ty Johnson, nobody priced below him is worth a look.
Also consider: Tarik Cohen ($5,000) who has three straight games with 12+ DK points. Over this span, he has at least four receptions in each game. Running backs have had their way in the passing game against the Lions, as they have already allowed seven of them to score a receiving touchdown this season. Cohen provides a safe floor at this price considering his involvement in the passing game.
Michael Thomas $9,100
It doesn’t get much chalkier than this. FantasyData’s Daily Fantasy Projections have Michael Thomas projected with the most points of any player on this slate and is priced accordingly. He’ll square up against the Falcons pass-friendly secondary for the second time in just four weeks. This is a defense that has allowed an opposing wide receiver over 95 yards in four straight games. Speaking of games with 95+ receiving yards, Thomas has eclipsed this mark in seven of his last eight games. He is going to be an extremely popular option on this three-game slate and you may need him just to stand a chance. Thomas is a top-option in both cash games and GPP’s.
Randall Cobb $5,000
Let’s just say that it was not a pass-friendly environment in New England this past Sunday. This week, the Dallas Cowboys are back home and more importantly, inside. Randall Cobb has become much more involved over the past few weeks as he has been targeted at least 7 times in each of the past four games. Though the Bills do have a stingy pass defense, it is likely that their top cover-corner, Tre’Davious White, will be spending most of his time shadowing Amari Cooper. This should give Cobb more opportunities to work underneath and comes at an affordable price.
Cole Beasley $4,700
Nothing new here, just another Thanksgiving Day game in Dallas for Cole Beasley. Except for this time, he won’t be wearing the star on his helmet. After spending his first seven seasons in Dallas, Beasley is not a top option in the Buffalo Bills’ offense. He has found the endzone in four of his past six games and has three or more receptions in every game but one. FantasyData projections rate Beasley out as the fifth-best value at wide receiver and the best option priced below $4,700. Revenge is sweet, roll with Cole.
Also consider: Anthony Miller ($3,900) seems extremely under-priced. Over the past two weeks, his target percentage is higher than any other Bears’ wide receiver. He’s had six receptions and at least nine targets in each of his last two games. Now with Taylor Gabriel officially ruled out, Millers target share will increase significantly
Dawson Knox $2,900
As we get deeper into the season, Dawson Knox’s snap share continues to rise. He has played over 70% of the Bills’ offensive snaps in each of the past two weeks and is coming off of his highest mark of the season (77.5%). However, the game did not play into Knox’s favor. The Bills were in control of last week's game, which led to 47 rush attempts as opposed to just 25 pass attempts. This week, Buffalo is a seven-point road-underdog so this run-heavy approach may not be feasible. FantasyData has Knox as the second-best value at the position when comparing price to projection. He also finds himself in a favorable matchup, as Dallas ranks in the bottom 10 against the position. In 11 games this season, Dallas has allowed 5 tight ends to score 11 or more DK points. With the tight end projection being as unpredictable as it has been, we do not need much out of Knox for him to return value.
Also consider: Jared Cook ($4,800) who is the highest priced tight end on this Thanksgiving slate (with Austin Hooper out). Cook is coming off of his best fantasy performance of the season (6-99-1). He now gets to face a Falcons’ defense who allowed five of the past seven tight ends double-digit DK points.
Chicago Bears $2,500
Whether it is Jeff Driskel (hamstring) or David Blough making the start under center for the Lions, fire up the Bears’ D/ST in this spot. FantasyData’s DFS Projections have them projected the most points on the slate, and we’re able to roster them at a discounted price. In the last four weeks with Driskel at quarterback, the Lions have surrendered a total of 32 DK points to opposing defenses. This game also features the lowest projected point total of the three (38.5). Play them with confidence and do not over-think it.
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Dom Cintorino is a Central Michigan University graduate who earned a Bachelor's degree in General Management. He has been writing in the Fantasy Sports industry for three years now. He began with Dominate Fantasy where he was the lead writer for season-long and DFS purposes during the 2016 season. Dom eventually moved on to write both Fantasy Golf, and Fantasy Football for RotoExperts through a majority of 2018. He represented RotoExperts in the Kings Classic - Brown Division which took place at the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Dom is also currently a contributor at Fantasy CPR where he writes Daily Fantasy Golf.