NFL Pick ‘Em Week 14
I felt good about the process last week and was off to a really nice start before losing momentum in the afternoon and late games. Still, a winning 8-6 week was an improvement from the Thanksgiving slate. Week 14 has some interesting games to digest and, thankfully, is the final week of the season with those pesky bye weeks.
It seems ridiculous to have four teams off this late into a season, especially in fantasy leagues with expanded playoff formats. Imagine having MVP Jonathan Taylor all season just to have to sit him in this key Week 14 battle.
We forge on without Taylor and try to put together consecutive winning weeks for the first time in a while.
2021 ATS record season-to-date: 99-92-2
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
Kansas City has stopped the bleeding and started winning again but it hasn’t always been easy. In fact, dating back to last season, the Chiefs have been one of the worst ATS teams in the league, posting a 3-10 ATS record in their last 13 home games. The Raiders have also been struggling, posting a 1-4 ATS record in their last five and Vegas has not fared well in Kansas City, losing seven of their last eight at Arrowhead.
- My Prediction: Kansas City 24, Las Vegas 20
- My Pick: Raiders +9.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-9.5)
The Titans emerge from their Week 13 bye healthier and with a well-timed home date with the inept Jaguars. Tennessee has won 8-of-9 straight up against Jacksonville, including a 37-19 pummeling back in Week 5. The under looks good in this game as the Jags have fallen below the total in 10-of-12 games. I don’t see the Jaguars being able to muster up enough offense to stay in this game for long, so I’m siding with the big home favorites.
- My Prediction: Tennessee 31, Jacksonville 17
- My Pick: Titans -9.5
Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans (+8)
The line for this game is all over the place, with some books having Seattle as 6.5-point favorites and others as much as 9. The common theme of this diversity is a dislike of the Texans, which is understandable. Houston has dropped five straight at NRG and is benching Tyrod Taylor for Davis Mills. I have a hard time thinking that the Seahawks should be favored by such a margin on the road but wouldn’t want to make an actual bet on the Texans. Instead, I’d look at the under, which has hit in six of Houston’s past seven and five of Seattle’s last six.
- My Prediction: Seattle 24, Houston 13
- My Pick: Seahawks -8
New Orleans Saints at New York Jets (+5.5)
As bad as the Jets have looked, they’ve been playing better ball than the Saints, who enter MetLife Stadium in the midst of a five-game slide. New Orleans is just 1-4 against the spread during their losing streak but, oddly, are 16-5 straight up in their last 21 away games. New York has been the opposite, posting a 3-11 home record dating back to 2019. I would feel better about picking the Saints if Taysom Hill and Mark Ingram were fully healthy, but they should be able to muster enough offense to end their losing skid.
- My Prediction: New Orleans 26, New York 19
- My Pick: Saints -5.5
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
Applaud John Harbaugh for going for the win, rather than playing not to lose. The Ravens will have to quickly shake off that painful 1-point loss and travel to Cleveland, where they’ll be underdogs to a 6-6 Browns squad. Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson hasn’t looked right lately and has been much less effective on the road. These two teams just played in Baltimore and the Ravens squeaked out a 16-10 victory which saw Jackson toss four picks. Despite the struggles, Baltimore has won and covered six of their last seven against the Browns.
- My Prediction: Baltimore 21, Cleveland 17
- My Pick: Ravens +2.5
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
Both teams are 5-7 straight up and versus the spread. Atlanta is 4-2 ATS on the road, while Carolina is 3-3 ATS as hosts. The Falcons have won 6-of-8 in this NFC South rivalry and is 4-1 ATS in their last five trips east. The under has also been quite popular in this series and would be my preferred bet. I feel like Carolina wins this game but I just can’t find any trends that lead me to pick the Panthers.
- My Prediction: Carolina 21, Atlanta 20
- My Pick: Falcons +2.5
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team (+4)
The Cowboys have covered the spread in 5-of-6 away games and has beaten Washington in 7-of-10 overall. Meanwhile, Washington has won four straight and covered in 4-of-5 but only has one victory all season over a team that is currently above .500. Dallas has also won six of the last eight games in D.C. and I think they get another victory here to end the Football Team’s winning streak.
- My Prediction: Dallas 28, Washington 23
- My Pick: Cowboys -4
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (-10)
Denver has crept back into the wild-card chase but faces a tough task in the visiting red-hot Lions who have won one of their last…one. Despite the single victory, Detroit is a respectable 8-4 against the spread and 5-1 in their last six. The Broncos shouldn’t have to work too hard to win this game in the unseasonably warm conditions, which could set in some complacency and a backdoor cover for Detriot.
- My Prediction: Denver 24, Detroit 20
- My Pick: Lions +10
New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers (-10)
Another big home favorite, but for good reason. The Giants are expected to trot out Jake from state Fromm and that doesn’t bode well for an offense that has already been scuffling. The Chargers don’t enjoy much of a home-field advantage and are just 7-16-1 ATS at home dating back to 2018. New York has been solid covering on the road but Fromm is a complete unknown. This is not a spread I feel real comfortable with but the over is enticing.
- My Prediction: Los Angeles 31, New York 23
- My Pick: Giants +10
San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (+1)
Plenty of points have been scored in these teams’ recent histories. Combined, the OVER has hit in 10 of the past 13 total games played. San Francisco has outright won five of their last seven road games, with one of those losses occurring just last week. The Niners also have won six of their last eight games in Cincinnati, who could be limited by a finger injury to QB Joe Burrow. But of all the home dogs this week, the Bengals are the best team and are the only team above .500 currently predicted to lose.
- My Prediction: Cincinnati 23, San Francisco 20
- My Pick: Bengals +1
Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)
This is the premier matchup of the week, as the defending champs face a Bills team that is kind of reeling. The Buccaneers have been dominant at home, posting a 5-0 record and scoring 30-plus points in each contest. This is only Tampa’s second home game since Week 7 and they’ll be more than ready to face a Bills team that they’ve beaten five consecutive times in Tampa. The Bills have won 7-of-10 road games but haven’t had much luck in Tampa, going 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Raymond James.
- My Prediction: Tampa Bay 27, Buffalo 23
- My Pick: Buccanneers -3.5
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-12.5)
Justin Fields will be back under center for the Bears and that caused the total to drop and the spread to jump from 11 to 13 at some books. Opposing QB Aaron Rodgers has dominated Chicago, holding a 22-5 record against the Bears. The Packers are 10-1 ATS since Week 2 and have covered five straight home games. The Bears have dropped five in a row overall to the Packers and are 0-5 outright and versus the number in their last five trips to Lambeau Field. I don’t like the big number but can’t find any data that says to bet on the Bears.
- My Prediction: Green Bay 31, Chicago 17
- My Pick: Packers -12.5
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)
If the Tampa/Buffalo tilt doesn’t work for you, Monday night’s NFC showdown should do the trick. The Cardinals are currently the NFC’s No. 1 seed and beat the Rams 37-20 back in Week 4. That ended a long losing streak to the Rams, who had won the previous eight matchups with their division rivals. The Rams have also won five straight games in the desert and have covered in each.
- My Prediction: Arizona 24, Los Angeles 23
- My Pick: Rams +2.5
