Week 15 was undoubtedly one of the most difficult weeks I can ever recall. The fact that it was a playoff week for most fantasy leagues only made the impact that much worse. Hopefully, a few of you were able to escape the carnage and are still playing for your league’s championship.
One of the few things that went well last week were my picks–although maybe that says something negative considering how many things went wrong. Still, a 10-5 record is a solid week, regardless. I’ll try to keep the positive momentum going on the penultimate week of the 2021 season.
2021 ATS record season-to-date: 118-101-2
Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-7)
The Browns were hit hard by COVID last week but should be a little healthier, but it may not matter. Green Bay is the league’s top ATS team at 11-3, including 5-0 in their last five games at Lambeau Field. Cleveland has dropped four of five to Green Bay overall and is just 2-4 on the road this season.
- My Prediction: Green Bay 31, Cleveland 20
- My Pick: Packers -7
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (-1)
- My Prediction: Arizona 30, Indianapolis 27
- My Pick: Cardinals -1
Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings (+3.5)
No team has played as many one-possession games as Minnesota, who have managed to play their way back into wild-card contention. Los Angeles has recovered from a bad run and is now 10-4 on the season. The Vikings have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven and have won 6-of-7 against the Rams in Minnesota. Missing RB Dalvin Cook won’t help the Vikings but they should be able to keep it close with Alexander Mattison, who is more than an adequate replacement.
- My Prediction: Los Angeles 28, Minnesota 26
- My Pick: Vikings +3.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans (+9)
How bad are the Jaguars? Houston is 2-0 against Jacksonville and 1-11 against the rest of the league. The Texans have dropped six straight home games by an average score of 28.7 to 13.3. The Chargers have straight-up won five of their last seven trips to NRG Stadium and are 4-2 versus the number as visitors in 2021.
- My Prediction: Los Angeles 34, Houston 17
- My Pick: Chargers -9
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-9)
We still don’t know who will be under center for the Giants, but considering the options are Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm, it doesn’t seem like it will make much difference. The Eagles have won four of their last five to get into the playoff chase, while New York has dropped three in a row and 4-of-5. The Eagles have covered five in a row at home against the Giants and I think they’ll be able to coast to another easy win here.
- My Prediction: Philadelphia 27, New York 13
- My Pick: Eagles -9
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-2)
Buffalo was able to halt a skid that saw them drop three out of their last four by winning outright and covering a big 14.5 spread at home last week against the Panthers. Things won’t be as easy in Week 16 as the Bills travel to New England to face a Patriots squad that saw their seven-game winning streak stopped last week in Indianapolis. Buffalo desperately needs to win this game to have any shot at winning the AFC East but the Bills have lost 17 of their last 20 games at Gillette Stadium. The Bills have scored 27-plus points in all but one of their away games this season, while New England has held their opponents to 17 or fewer points in 6-of-7 at home. Should be a good one.
- My Prediction: New England 23, Buffalo 20
- My Pick: Patriots -2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (+10)
Of all the disasters from Week 15, none was as surprising as Tampa being shut out at home. That embarrassment also cost the Bucs their top-3 pass-catchers, who combined to account for half of Tom Brady’s targets. Carolina has failed to win or cover their last five home games and has dropped 4-of-5 to the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has won a dozen road games since the start of the 2020 season and Tom Brady is 48-23 ATS after a loss. I just can’t see the Panthers’ unsettled quarterbacks being able to hand with an embarrassed Tom Brady, so I’m on the Bucs to bounce back.
- My Prediction: Tampa Bay 34, Carolina 13
- My Pick: Buccaneers -10
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-2.5)
My initial thoughts on this game: do we have to? Even after kicking Urban Meyer to the curb last week the Jaguars still managed to get beaten handily by a Houston franchise that now has two of their three victories against Jacksonville. The Jets haven’t been much better but they did roll into Reliant Stadium and dispatch the Texans with relative ease. Both teams are just 4-10 ATS but Jacksonville is 0-6 (2-4 ATS) on the road.
- My Prediction: New York Jets 23, Jacksonville 16
- My Pick: Jets -2.5
Detriot Lions at Atlanta Falcons (-6)
Somebody has to win, right–or will they manage to tie? The Falcons are just 1-5 at home this season, while Detroit is 0-6-1 as visitors. The Lions have actually covered five of their last six games overall and outright won two of three. While Atlanta has clawed their way back into the NFC wild-card chase, they’ve outright lost 7-of-8 at home and have struggled to score points as hosts.
- My Prediction: Atlanta 20, Detroit 15
- My Pick: Lions +6
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
Like the Bills/Patriots tilt, this showdown will have major implications on the AFC North, with the winner of this game being in the driver’s seat to host a playoff game. Both teams are 8-6 straight up and 7-7 versus the number, but Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS at home. The Bengals have also dropped five of their last six overall games to the Ravens, who would get a boost if QB Lamar Jackson were able to return.
- My Prediction: Baltimore 23, Cincinnati 20
- My Pick: Ravens +2.5
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (-7)
It’s all but certain that both teams will undergo massive offseason changes, so we have a game with two non-contenders simply going through the motions. Chicago’s only win since Week 5 was a narrow 2-point walk-off victory against the lowly Lions. The Bears are also 1-8 ATS during the stretch. Seattle has won five of their last six home games against the Bears and gone 4-2 ATS in those games.
- My Prediction: Seattle 24, Chicago 14
- My Pick: Seahawks -7
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (+1)
Yet another seemingly evenly-matched division rivalry, the 7-7 Broncos and 7-7 Raiders desperately need wins to keep their playoff hopes alive. Denver has lost five consecutive games both straight up and versus the spread on the road against the Raiders, and are 1-7 ATS in their last eight. The under has also hit in eight of the last 10 in this AFC West rivalry, so expect another hard-fought slugfest in favor of the home dogs.
- My Prediction: Las Vegas 19, Denver 16
- My Pick: Raiders +1
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)
Kansas City has now won seven consecutive games and covered five in a row, while Pittsburgh has dropped three road games in a row and allowed 41,41, and 36 points in those losses. That doesn’t bode well for Pittsburgh, but a healthy Steelers defense with Minkah Fitzpatrick in the secondary just might be able to slow down Patrick Mahomes enough to keep the game within reach.
- My Prediction: Kansas City 24, Pittsburgh 20
- My Pick: Steelers +10
Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)
Dallas is a healthy 11-3 ATS this season and has won eight of their last 11 against their NFC East rival, including a slim half-point cover back in Week 14. Washington has, however, gone 10-4 ATS in Dallas and is 4-1-1 overall versus the spread since Week 10. If Taylor Heinicke is back under center, this spread could tighten up a bit, but for now, I’ll take the visitors to keep it close against a Dallas offense that has been sputtering.
- My Prediction: Dallas 24, Washington 17
- My Pick: Football Team +9.5
Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Even after it was announced that Taysom Hill would be unavailable and the Saints would be starting fourth-round rookie Ian Book, this line barely moved. That tells me a lot of money is likely on Miami, who has won six straight and had covered in all until last week. The Saints used to be nearly unbeatable at home but New Orleans has dropped four of their last five games in the Superdome and is just 2-4 ATS as hosts in 2021.
- My Prediction: Miami 23, New Orleans 20
- My Pick: Dolphins +3.5
