Week 16 Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
The fantasy playoffs are fully underway, and Week 15 provided plenty of challenges related to the league’s COVID-19 protocols and the usual slew of injuries affecting the availability of star players. Thursday started the weekend in epic fashion with Travis Kelce evading the Chargers’ defense to seal a walk-off touchdown in overtime for the Kansas City Chiefs. Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Austin Ekeler all delivered top-five fantasy performances, but the topic of Week 15 ended up being about defense. Only 12 teams entering Monday’s two-game slate managed to score 20 points. This includes the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, and New England Patriots. All three of these dominant teams were handed decisive losses in Week 15 and will be forced to go back to the drawing board ahead of their Week 16 matchups.
D’Onta Foreman and Zach Ertz proved to be my best recommendations from Week 15, while all of the wide receivers struggled to get going in games that proved to be low-scoring, defensive battles. Week 16 offers quite a few advantageous matchups for players that lie on the fringe of lineup consideration. I’m here to help with these difficult start/sit decisions and explain why each player deserves to be started or benched. With the fantasy championships quickly approaching, it won’t be the star players that solidify your odds of winning. Instead, identifying lower-caliber players who offer high-upside and hidden value is the recipe for success down the stretch in fantasy football. The following Start ‘Em prospects offer hidden upside, while the Sit ‘Em list features players who lack this hidden upside due to possessing a low floor.
Start ‘EM
Sony Michel (RB) Los Angeles Rams
In several games this season, the Rams have been forced to rely on Sony Michel as the primary ball carrier. The results have been satisfying. Even when limited as the Rams’ RB2, Michel has ground out yardage, hitting over 40 scrimmage yards in five games with Darrell Henderson Jr. handling snaps as the starter. The matchup against a Minnesota Vikings run defense that has allowed the 12th-highest PPR points to fantasy running backs is what becomes enticing to value Michel as a mid-range RB3 with RB2 upside in Week 16. Contrary to popular perception, the Rams are a run-centric team, using the running game to establish play-action and bootleg passes to buy their talented wide receiving corps a couple of extra seconds to separate from their defender. As a starter against the Jaguars and Cardinals, Michel rushed at least 20 times and finished with at least 79 scrimmage yards in both outings. He is likely to earn extended reps to spell Henderson and will be able to deliver a few chunk plays. If he can usurp a couple of goal-line carries against the Vikings, Michel will likely have his fourth touchdown of the season and return RB2 value in lineups this weekend.
Tony Pollard (RB) Dallas Cowboys
The torn plantar fascia on Tony Pollard’s left foot did not affect his explosiveness and production in any way against the New York Giants in Week 15. The third-year running back played 40 percent of snaps on Sunday and managed to hit double-digit carries, running 12 times for 74 yards. He also caught all three of his targets for an additional 13 yards and has at least four targets in three straight games, raising his floor to counter playing behind Ezekiel Elliot. Pollard only saw four fewer carries than Elliot but doubled his YPC (6.2) compared to the 3.2 YPC Elliot finished with. Pollard did cede a lucrative goal-line carry to Elliot for a touchdown, but he still managed to produce 11.7 PPR points, good enough to land near an RB1 finish without a touchdown. Pollard missed the first game against Washington a couple of weeks ago but will be available and ready to face their defense in primetime back home in Dallas. He has proven that his injury will not be a setback or factor in his usage within the Cowboys’ offense, so start Pollard confidently as an RB2 in Week 16.
D’Onta Foreman (RB) Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans appear to have found their preferred replacement for Derrick Henry while he mends a broken bone in his foot. Fourth-year running back D’Onta Foreman saw a 52 percent rushing share against a vulnerable Pittsburgh run defense in Week 15 and took advantage of the opportunity, churning out 108 yards on 22 carries. An additional 27 receiving yards on three targets added to Foreman’s ability to finish as the RB8 in PPR formats, scoring 15.5 points due to the heavy workload. Standing at 6-1, 236 pounds, Foreman is a bruiser like Henry and can hit the running lanes with explosiveness that head coach Mike Vrabel is gravitating towards.
San Francisco is a pedestrian defensive unit against fantasy running backs, ranking 17th in PPR formats. With the Titans’ inability to kickstart their passing game, a run-centric game plan is likely to occur against a 49ers offense that comprises one of the most run-heavy game plans across the league. Foreman has the opportunity and sees his targets rise each week, so plug him into lineups as a low-end RB2 with RB1 upside should he find the end zone. It’s a short week for both teams since the game will be played in Nashville on Thursday night, so make sure to keep Foreman out of any Flex spots in your lineup.
DeVante Parker (WR) Miami Dolphins
No one was happier to see the return of DeVante Parker than Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The seventh-year wideout has dealt with injuries frequently this season, limiting him to just seven games. However, when Parker has been available, he’s been productive.
After a season-low five targets against the New York Giants in Week 15, Parker had a great game against the New York Jets this past weekend, hauling in four receptions for 68 yards and a touchdown. Parker is the unquestioned WR1 in the Dolphins offense, playing 88 percent of snaps on Sunday, while Albert Wilson played just 57 percent of snaps as the WR2. It was encouraging to see Parker lead Miami wideouts in targets (8) and watch it translate into fringe WR1 production with 16.8 PPR points. Parker finished at least 62 receiving yards in each of his last four games and will remain a primary contributor in a tough matchup against the New Orleans Saints in Week 16. Don’t let the Saints shutout performance force you to pivot off of Parker, as he will return substantial WR2 value in lineups during Monday Night Football in the Big Easy.
Christian Kirk (WR) Arizona Cardinals
Many anticipated A.J. Green to be given WR1 volume for Arizona after the DeAndre Hopkins injury. But, as it turns out, Christian Kirk earned the role against the Lions in Week 15, playing 96 percent of snaps. Not only did he have the opportunity to produce, but he also delivered an impressive WR4 finish in PPR leagues despite the embarrassing blowout loss in Detroit. Kirk caught nine receptions for 94 yards, including a 26-yard touchdown reception late in the fourth quarter.
Rondale Moore and Andy Isabella were out-targeted by Antoine Wesley, so neither of them poses a risk to Kirk’s production moving forward. On Saturday, an important primetime road matchup against the Indianapolis Colts thrust Kirk into solid WR2 territory in a good matchup against their secondary. Kyler Murray will be motivated to perform well after a bad loss in Detroit and trusts Kirk to be his number one wideout, with Hopkins now out of the picture. Start Kirk as a safe WR2 against the Colts in Week 16.
Russell Gage (WR) Atlanta Falcons
It’s no longer a question whether or not Russell Gage is Atlanta’s top wideout. The extended absence of Calvin Ridley has opened up great opportunities for the fourth-year wideout out of LSU to perform up to his ceiling, finishing with at least 60 receiving yards in four straight games. Gage has also enjoyed a heavy target share, reaching double-digit marks in two of the last three weeks for the Falcons. Matt Ryan has pivoted off of Kyle Pitts in recent weeks and is leaning into Gage as his preferred target in the passing game.
Cordarelle Patterson has also cooled off considerably from a hot November, grabbing only two receptions for five yards against San Francisco in Week 15. Detroit is a good matchup for any fantasy player despite their strong showing against Arizona this past weekend. The opportunity Gage is seeing is too much to ignore, as he checks both high-floor and high-ceiling boxes to warrant a WR2 designation at home against the Lions in Week 16.
Zach Ertz (TE) Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray struggled against the Detroit Lions and relied on tight end Zach Ertz to bail him out of challenging situations. Ertz drew 11 targets, his first double-digit target game of the season, turning the opportunity into 74 receiving yards in a game where the Arizona Cardinals scored just 12 points. The tight end streaming options have been volatile all season long, and the outbreak of COVID-19 cases and other injuries have thinned out rosters on high-powered offenses.
The absence of DeAndre Hopkins will continue to work in Ertz’s favor from a fantasy perspective, so keep him plugged into lineups as a starter against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 16. The Colts are the second-best matchup for fantasy tight ends, meaning Ertz could wind up ending his three-game touchdown drought in Lucas Oil Stadium this Saturday night. The matchup is too juicy, and the offense will have a chip on its shoulder to prove their loss against Detroit was a fluke. Ertz will be one of the most significant contributors as a result and should be locked into lineups as a top-eight tight end in Week 16.
Taysom Hill (QB) New Orleans Saints
Taysom Hill played a good game against Tampa Bay, even with the offense being held to only three field goals. The primetime matchup against Tom Brady appeared to be a fantastic fantasy matchup for both teams, but the 9-0 shutout ended up proving this narrative wrong. Hill carried 11 times for 33 yards while completing 13 passes for 154 yards, avoiding turnovers but also failing to score a touchdown. The Buccaneers are a strong defense that has shown vulnerability at times, so Hill’s zero touchdown outing certainly burnt a few fantasy managers. However, Hill will return home on a two-game winning streak and face the Miami Dolphins in another primetime game on Monday Night Football in Week 16. Miami has been much better at restricting opposing quarterbacks and running backs lately, but wide receivers have been their Achilles heel. The Saints do not have any big-name wide receivers, but Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris form an underrated one-two punch for Hill to target in the passing game. Expect his rushing numbers to improve with at least 50 yards and a touchdown against Miami, while he could gash the Dolphins with dump-offs and screens to star running back Alvin Kamara as well. Hill should be started as a solid QB1 in Week 16.
Sit ‘EM
Devin Singletary (RB) Buffalo Bills
I’ve been in Devin Singletary’s corner a few times this season, and he has produced in spots. However, against a New England Patriots defense for the second time in the last four weeks, there is no way to stand behind Singletary. He managed to score only his third rushing touchdown of the season against the Carolina Panthers last week and handled 22 carries. Singletary has seen double-digit carries in three of his previous four games, but two of these ended with him being held under 50 scrimmage yards. The Patriots just got burned by Jonathan Taylor and will in no way allow Singletary to replicate his Week 15 performance against them in Foxboro. This feels like a game where only Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and possibly Gabriel Davis warrant consideration in lineups. The risk is too high with Singletary, so bench him and pivot to another option like D’Onta Foreman or Tony Pollard.
Jerry Jeudy (WR) Denver Broncos
Jerry Jeudy is the victim of a deep, wide receiving corps and a carousel at quarterback. The scary injury to Teddy Bridgewater in Week 15 forced Drew Lock under center, but Tim Patrick and Courtland Sutton both saw more snaps against Cincinnati. At the same time, Jeudy could not haul in any of his four targets. The Broncos are one of the teams who prefer to deploy a run-centric attack due to the formidable backfield comprised of rookie Javonte Williams and veteran Melvin Gordon III. As a result, the passing volume is always low, and the quality of targets varies, especially with Lock expected to start against a good Las Vegas Raiders secondary in Week 16. So sit Jeudy due to his low-floor and low-ceiling outlook in a bad matchup on the road.
Darnell Mooney (WR) Chicago Bears
Darnell Mooney is seeing his targets and opportunity dry up over the last three weeks, totaling 46 receiving yards across his previous two games combined. His run as a fantasy WR1 appears to be over even with rookie quarterback Justin Fields back in action. Running back David Montgomery and wideout Allen Robinson saw 13 targets against Green Bay in Week 14, eating into Mooney’s opportunity to return value. He only managed to finish with a 19-yard reception against the Packers in a game where Chicago scored 30 points. Next, the Bears get a difficult road matchup against a Seattle Seahawks team, limiting wide receivers to the tenth-fewest PPR points this season. Mooney will still get run, but with head coach Matt Nagy resuming playcalling duties, the Bears offense is a unit to avoid when searching for wide receivers.
Tyler Conklin (TE) Minnesota Vikings
It’s now been over a month since Tyler Conklin blew up against the Los Angeles Chargers with a two-touchdown performance. Since this Week 10 explosion, the fourth-year tight end has faded into the background of the Minnesota Vikings offense, being held under 40 receiving yards in four of his last five games. Kirk Cousins is still playing at a high level, but his eyes are set on star-wideout Justin Jefferson. Running back, Dalvin Cook dominated in his return from injury in Week 14 and will remain an integral piece of the Vikings game plan to close out the regular season. Conklin is due to hit a chunk play here and there, but his upside is capped by his inability to draw more than three targets per game. Sit Conklin to maximize upside in the tight end position with prospects like Jared Cook or Zach Ertz.
Ryan Tannehill (QB) Tennessee Titans
Last week, I was willing to give Ryan Tannehill a chance against a bad Pittsburgh defense. He could find the end zone as a ball carrier, but he was not very good in the passing game, falling under 200 passing yards for the third week in a row. Despite attempting 32 passes, Tannehill threw an interception and had to rely on his tight ends and backfield to generate most of the Titans passing yards in a gritty, low-scoring loss. The schedule only increases in difficulty for Tannehill, as the Titans will host a red-hot San Francisco 49ers team on Thursday night in Week 16. Julio Jones returned without much fanfare but is now dealing with a hamstring injury, further solidifying the case to sit Tannehill as frequently as possible. The Titans have one of the league’s worst wide receiving corps and offensive units in general, as injuries have ravaged the team and limited Tannehill’s ability to produce lineup-worthy production.
