NFL Picks
Last week started off really bad, losing six of the first seven games before making things respectable in the afternoon slate. Overall, I went 7-8-1 last week and remaining under .500 overall. Bye weeks are also here to complicate things, but maybe having fewer games will mean fewer games to handicap incorrectly.
Week 6 has some interesting games, particularly if you love home dogs. We also get another early Sunday game from across the pond. Let’s see if I can’t inch back towards respectability by winning a couple of games more than I lose.
2021 season-to-date: 37-40-2
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Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)
I don’t really care where the game is at this point, I’m not betting on the Jaguars. Not only has Jacksonville lost 20 straight, but they’re also in the midst of turmoil surrounding their head coach. The Jags are no strangers to playing in London but I don’t see that has any real advantage. With Miami tentatively expected to have QB Tua Tagovailoa back under center, I’m siding with the better team here.
- My Prediction: Miami 24 Jacksonville 20
- My Pick: Dolphins -3
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+5)
The Packers are 13-2 in their last 15 games against the Bears and have covered four straight against the number in this series. Chicago is also entering this game with an injury-ravaged defense and an offense that has really struggled to move the ball. Not much to like about Chicago in this one, which means they’ll probably win straight up, just because.
- My Prediction: Green Bay 24 Chicago 16
- My Pick: Packers -5
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Football Team (+6.5)
Before the season, both the Chiefs and Football Team were predicted to have top-10 defenses, but five games in and Washington ranks 27th and Kansas City 31st. Yikes. Maybe we should be looking at the over here. Both squads are also a paltry 1-4 ATS entering Week 6 and both have gone OVER in 4-of-5. Kansas City is a huge publicly-backed team, which is always concerning. But I think the Chiefs right the ship here and win by seven to 10 points.
- My Prediction: Kansas City 34 Washington 28
- My Pick: Chiefs -6.5
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (+2)
In a slate filled with home underdogs, this one is the most puzzling to me. Yes, the Panthers have dropped consecutive games after opening the season 3-0 but I don’t see how the Vikings, who are 2-3 and barely beat winless Detroit last week at home, are favored in this game. The Vikings are 0-2 straight up on the road and their offense has slowed down after a fast start. This line is fishy but I believe the wrong team is favored, particularly if RB Christian McCaffrey is active.
- My Prediction: Carolina 21 Minnesota 17
- My Pick: Panthers +2
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
Finally, a home favorite but one could argue that the Chargers are slightly better. Vegas agrees because the Ravens being favored by less than three points tells us that the sharps view the Chargers as a slightly better squad. Baltimore is on short rest coming off of an emotional overtime win, but the Chargers must contend with a long flight and early kickoff on the East coast. This should be a fun game to watch, with tons of fantasy football implications. I don’t have a strong feel for this game, so would recommend staying away.
- My Prediction: Baltimore 31 Los Angeles 28
- My Pick: Ravens -2.5
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-10)
I certainly don’t want to overreact to Houston’s impressive showing last week. After getting destroyed 40-0 in Week 4, the Texans looked quite credible last week. Meanwhile, the Colts just dropped a heartbreaking Monday night overtime loss and could potentially be flat in this game. Additionally, Indy is pretty banged up here. 10 points seems like a lot even though the Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Texans. Only one of the last 10 matchups in this AFC South rivalry has been decided by more than nine points, so I’m sticking with a Houston cover here.
- My Prediction: Indianapolis 23 Houston 17
- My Pick: Texans +10
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants (+9.5)
Daniel Jones has actually taken practice snaps, so there could be some value on the Giants as big home dogs. Of course, New York won’t have RB Saquon Barkley and the team’s receiving corps is still a question mark with Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, and Kadarius Toney all dealing with varying degrees of injury. These teams played one year ago and the Rams won 17-9, with New York covering a 13.5-point spread. Current lean is with the Giants again.
- My Prediction: Los Angeles 26 New York 20
- My Pick: Giants +9.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions (+3.5)
Both of these teams suffered close losses last week and look to rebound. In an interesting trend, both the Bengals and Lions have alternated ATS win, followed by losses all season, with Cincinnati pushing against Green Bay last week. Cincinnati hasn’t hit an over since Week 1, while Detroit last did in Week 2. Detroit’s injured offensive line could be problematic for the Lions’ two-man backfield. Under 47 looks promising once again but that half-point makes me hesitant on taking the favorites.
- My Prediction: Cincinnati 24 Detroit 21
- My Pick: Lions +3.5
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (-3.5)
The Browns are also beat up, with both Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb missing practice time. Arizona’s injuries are on the defensive side of the ball, which helps Cleveland’s case in this contest. These uncertainties make it difficult to read this game, so it’s not something I would be interested in betting. However, the Cardinals have won four consecutive head-to-head meetings with the Browns and outscored Cleveland 72-44 in the last two.
- My Prediction: Arizona 28 Cleveland 25
- My Pick: Cardinals +3.5
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (+3.5)
The Cowboys are rolling while New England has scuffled, including having far more difficulty dispatching Houston last week than they should have. Dallas is one of the most popular favorites this week, but that has not been a good spot for the Cowboys, who were 0-3 as road favorites a year ago.
- My Prediction: New England 23 Dallas 20
- My Pick: Patriots +3.5
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
This is a stay-away situation. There’s no real telling how the Raiders will respond to the Jon Gruden resignation. It could be a rallying point for the team, or it could further fracture a team that has dropped two consecutive games after opening the campaign 3-0. Ditto for Denver, who looks to end a two-game slide. The Raiders have won 4-of-5 head-to-head in this series and are also 4-1 ATS during the stretch.
- My Prediction: Denver 23 Las Vegas 20
- My Pick: Raiders +3.5
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5)
This game had more appeal one week ago but with Geno Smith under center in place of Russell Wilson, who will miss his first pro snap. While Smith doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, he looked quite competent last week. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has been one of the league’s most disappointing teams and just lost Juju Smith-Schuster for the season. QB Ben Roethlisberger is also dealing with a hip injury. I have a hard time seeing the Steelers covering with the way they’ve played so far.
- My Prediction: Pittsburgh 27 Seattle 24
- My Pick: Seahawks +5
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (+5.5)
We’re going to see lots of Frank Wycheck and Music City Miracle clips this week aren’t we? Buffalo has won outright and covered four consecutive games and the Titans, at just 3-2 (3-2 ATS), are already cruising to a two-game lead in the abysmal AFC South. Tennessee destroyed Buffalo in Nashville last season 42-16, so there may be a bit of a revenge factor at play here for the red-hot Bills. Still, we could see Derrick Henry approach 30 carries as Mike Vrabel tries to slow down the pace and keep Josh Allen on the sidelines.
- My Prediction: Buffalo 28 Tennessee 23
- My Pick: Titans +5.5
Thursday Night Pick:
Eagles +7
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