NFL Pick ‘Em Week 8
As lousy as Week 7 was overall from a football and fantasy perspective, it was my best week of the season in betting. I put up a sporty 11-2 mark against the spread last week and got back over .500 overall for the entire season.
Can’t guarantee those kinds of results again but we’ll see if we can keep the hot streak going and return some profits in Week 8.
2021 ATS record season-to-date: 56-48-2
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (+10)
This is a classic let-down spot for the Bengals, who just laid the hammer down on their division rivals and enter MetLife Stadium with all the confidence in the world. The Bengals also could be looking ahead to Cleveland in Week 9. However, there’s simply no reason to bet on the haggard Jets, who will be further hampered by having Mike White make his first NFL start against a surging defense.
- My Prediction: Cincinnati 28, New York 13
- My Pick: Bengals -10
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (+3.5)
Philadelphia has dropped 5-of-6, while the Lions are winless. Detroit has actually beaten the Eagles three times in a row straight up and Philadelphia’s offense has mostly looked dreadful with the exception of fourth-quarter garbage time production. I get the feeling that the Lions are going to be more motivated to win this game and will finally do that after suffering some discouraging close losses so far this season.
- My Prediction: Detroit 22, Philadelphia 19
- My Pick: Lions +3.5
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-14)
Back in Week 2, the Bills went down to Miami and destroyed the Dolphins 35-0. In that game, Buffalo forced three turnovers and held Miami to 216 yards of offense. And that was all while Josh Allen was still not playing up to his usual potential. Now, the Bills have had two weeks to prepare for this game and Allen has really turned his play around prior to the bye. All signs point to Buffalo winning this one easily but they could also sleepwalk through a game against an inferior opponent that just hammered by 35. A backdoor cover could certainly be in the cards, which would make me a little hesitant to make a big play here.
- My Prediction: Buffalo 31, Miami 16
- My Pick: Bills -14
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (+4)
This game opened at 41.5 and has already dropped a further two points. That tells us to expect more struggles out of Justin Fields against a 49ers defense that ranks 5th against the pass. San Francisco has held three opposing passers under 200 yards so far this season, a number that Fields has only surpassed once, and it came against the winless Lions. Still, the 49ers themselves have had subpar quarterbacking and are just 1-5 against the spread this season.
- My Prediction: San Francisco 21, Chicago 20
- My Pick: Bears +4
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
After a fast start, the Panthers are falling apart. Meanwhile, Hotlanta is the exact opposite, winning three of their last four contests after opening the campaign 0-2. By favoring the surging Falcons by just three points at home, Vegas is telling us that they view these two teams as essentially equals. I disagree. The Falcons have won two straight ATS while the Panthers have dropped four straight.
- My Prediction: Atlanta 24, Carolina 17
- My Pick: Falcons -3
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
The Titans beat Buffalo two weeks ago then throttled the two-time defending AFC champions last week and are underdogs against the Colts. Granted, Indy has played much better of late but this line seems awfully suspicious. Both teams are a solid 5-2 against the number and have split their last 10 matchups evenly. The Titans have covered three of the past four spreads but the Colts have scored 25-plus points in their last four games and I think have just enough offense to get past their rivals and get right back into playoff contention.
- My Prediction: Indianapolis 24, Tennessee 21
- My Pick: Colts -1.5
Los Angeles Rams at Houston Texans (+14.5)
Houston got out of the gate well, beating Jacksonville then covering in Cleveland. Since then, the Texans have dropped five more and scored fewer than 10 points in four of those five L’s. If Tyrod Taylor is back under center, he gives the Texans a fighting chance of covering. If Davis Mills gets the nod, there’s a very good chance Houston will get shut out against the Rams’ defense. I don’t generally like betting on huge road favorites but there’s simply no way I would place a real bet on Houston at this point.
- My Prediction: Los Angeles 24, Houston 10
- My Pick: Texans +14.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-3.5)
It’s hard to get a good read on this game because we still don’t know who will be under center for the Browns. It looks like Baker Mayfield is campaigning to play, but how effective will he be with a banged-up shoulder? The good news for Cleveland’s offense is that they’ll have RB Nick Chubb back, although Kareem Hunt won’t play. Pittsburgh had been playing better before their Week 7 bye and has had essentially two weeks to prepare for this game.
- My Prediction: Pittsburgh 23 Cleveland 20
- My Pick: Steelers +3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
Here is another line I just don’t get. Yes, the Jaguars finally ended their lengthy 20-game losing streak but that was two full weeks ago. Yes, Seattle’s offense has been in shambles with Geno Smith at the helm but I usually love to target the Seahawks at home, where they’ve covered 59% of their games as home favorites dating back to 2007, per WalterFootball.
- My Prediction: Seattle 20, Jacksonville 14
- My Pick: Seahawks -3.5
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers (-4)
The Chargers have had two full weeks to steam over their embarrassing 34-6 loss at Baltimore in Week 6. People might look at New England’s 54-point outburst against the Jets and think that the Patriots are finally putting the pieces together on offense, but Brandon Staley’s club is far better than the Jets and I think are really going to put it to the Patriots with a full two weeks of prep time.
- My Prediction: Los Angeles 30, New England 20
- My Pick: Chargers -4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (+4.5)
Check out the Saints schedule- they have played some really bad offenses since Week 1. That won’t be the case this week as Tom Brady and the league’s No. 1 offense trots into the Superdome. The Saints have gotten the better of this NFC South rivalry of late, including winning 5-of-6 against the spread. But that one loss was in the playoffs when Brady went to New Orleans and won by 10 points as an underdog of 2.5. Brady and the Bucs are favorites in this one, but I generally like to target New Orleans at home, especially as dogs.
- My Prediction: Tampa Bay 27, New Orleans 24
- My Pick: Saints +4.5
Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos (-3)
The NFC’s version of the Panthers, Denver has struggled after a fortuitous schedule resulted in a fast start. The Broncos have dropped four straight games straight up and against the number. Meanwhile, the Football Team is a putrid 1-6 ATS so far in 2021. Washington’s offense has progressively gotten worse each game during their three-game losing streak and that’s unlikely to turn around in Denver against a Broncos’ D that has allowed the fourth-fewest points.
- My Prediction: Denver 23, Washington 17
- My Pick: Broncos -3
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
This Sunday night game should be fun and comes with a ton of fantasy football ramifications. Both of the squads have the potential to rack up points and we should see plenty of scoring. That kind of game script favors the Cowboys but I find this line to be very questionable. Dallas is on a five-game winning streak and is a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road and 6-0 overall. The Vikings, meanwhile, haven’t covered either of their last two at home.
SUNDAY UPDATE: It’s looking less likely that Dallas QB Dak Prescott will suit up so this game went from Dallas +2.5 to +3.5 and could shoot up closer to kickoff. For transparency, I’m on Dallas and will adjust final line as it’s settled.
- My Prediction: Minnesota 27, Dallas 23
- My Pick: Cowboys +3.5
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)
Clearly Vegas thinks this is a ‘get right’ game for the Chiefs, who have been struggling of late. The Giants are banged-up offensively but still managed to win rather easily last week. This will be KC’s third game against the NFC East this season. Their results in the first two intraconference matchups: a 42-30 win in Philadelphia and a 31-13 victory in Washington.
- My Prediction: Kansas City 34, New York 17
- My Pick: Chiefs -10
