NFL Picks Week 7
Turns out there was a very good reason there were so many road favorites last week. Away teams went 9-5 straight up in Week 6 and only two teams that were home favorites covered the number. Chalk it up to a strange scheduling week. It was a solid betting effort last week, going 8-6 ATS even after taking a brutal loss with New England +3.5. I’m just one game under .500 for the season and look to climb past that mark with an abbreviated Week 7 slate.
2021 season-to-date: 45-46-2
Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (+2.5)
After a surprising 10-6 season just one year ago, Miami is an absolute train wreck at 1-5, which included giving the Jaguars their first win since Week 1 of the 2020 season. Miami’s hardships include against the number, as they’ve dropped 4-of-5. Atlanta was trending better before the bye and now gets two weeks to prepare for a Dolphins squad that just dropped a humiliating game and gets to fly back across the Atlantic Ocean. Nothing says the Dolphins should win this game, yet, that’s exactly what I predict to happen because that is today’s NFL.
- My Prediction: Miami 23 Atlanta 21
- My Pick: Dolphins +2.5
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants (+3)
The Panthers have cooled down considerably after a fast start but the Giants week-to-week look like one of the league’s worst teams. Not only is New York allowing over 400 yards per game defensively, but no offense is also currently more injury-ravaged than the Giants. While I’m still not sold on Sam Darnold as an above-average NFL signal-caller, I don’t see the Giants being able to keep pace with the Panthers, who are 9-1 ATS in their last nine road games.
- My Prediction: Carolina 24 New York 20
- My Pick: Panthers -3
Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers (-8)
Washington is 1-5 against the number. Their only win came in Atlanta, where they won by four after being favored by two. The Football Team was lucky to even pull out that win as it took quite a rally. Green Bay has not lost against the spread since Week 1, going 4-0-1 since getting destroyed in New Orleans.
- My Prediction: Green Bay 30 Washington 20
- My Pick: Packers -8
Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (+5.5)
So the Chiefs got blown out at home by Buffalo, who then lost to the Titans, yet the Titans are home dogs to Kansas City? As crucial as Monday’s victory against Buffalo was for the Titans, they are really banged up and get a short rest week against a Chiefs offense that started cooking last week. Still, Kansas City is just 2-4 ATS, while Tennessee is 4-2. I don’t have a great feeling about this game but think the Cheifs are able to get the win. The only question is how much fight the Titans can put up.
- My Prediction: Kansas City 31 Tennessee 28
- My Pick: Titans +5.5
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-7)
These two AFC East rivals are a combined 3-8 against the spread and went under in each of their first seven combined games before going over in each of their past two. Back in Week 2, New England defeated the Jets 25-6 and overall, the Patriots have won 11 consecutive games in this series. New York has scored 20-plus points in their past two games but it’s tough to envision Zach Wilson having much success against Bill Belichick, even if it is his second effort.
- My Prediction: New England 23 New York Jets 14
- My Pick: Patriots -7
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
One of the better matchups on the Week 7 agenda, the 4-2 Bengals try to pull even with the 5-1 Ravens atop the competitive AFC North. Baltimore has won five straight in this series by an average score of 32 to 11. The Bengals have only mustered three points in the two most recent games but with Joe Burrow gelling and Cincinnati’s offense healthy against a Baltimore defense that hasn’t lived up to recent standards, points should be as difficult to come by.
- My Prediction: Baltimore 27, Cincinnati 24
- My Pick: Bengals +6.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders (-3)
While the Eagles are only 2-4, they’ve had a fairly tough schedule, facing the 49ers, Cowboys, Chiefs, Panthers, and Buccaneers since Week 2. The 4-2 Raiders are also a solid team but betting Vegas is telling us that they view these two squads almost evenly. While the Raiders are only 1-2 ATS at home, they should be able to score on the Eagles and shut down Philadelphia’s wideout with their underrated pair of cornerbacks.
- My Prediction: Las Vegas 24 Philadelphia 20
- My Pick: Raiders -3
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-15.5)
This one could get ugly. 15.5 is a big number but the Lions just keep finding ways to lose. While we’ll read a lot about the Matthew Stafford revenge game, keep in mind that Jared Goff was unwittingly involved in the trade that landed Stafford. If anything, Goff should be motivated for revenge, as Stafford wanted out of Detroit. I kid, I kid…the Rams are going to bring the hammer down.
- My Prediction: Los Angeles 34, Detroit 13
- My Pick: Rams -15.5
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-12.5)
So far in 2021, double-digit home favorites are 6-2 against that big number. Despite making the correct decision in naming Justin Fields as his starter, Bears’ coach Matt Nagy has not been able to create any sort of credible game plan for his prized rookie signal-caller. Scoring won’t be an issue for Tom Brady and company, who should march out to a significant lead. The only question is will that lead be big enough to cover the number in the second half after Bruce Arians calls off the dogs. I’m guessing that yes, it will be.
- My Prediction: Tampa Bay 34, Chicago 17
- My Pick: Buccaneers -12.5
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-17)
The third of our 10-plus point home favorites, this is DeAndre Hopkins and J.J. Watt’s first chance to stick it to their former club. Most likely their animosity was with Bill O’Brien, but I fully expect the Cardinals to have their way with Houston. 17, though, is a huge number, even though the Texans were obliterated 40-0 three weeks ago when they entered Buffalo as 19-point dogs.
- My Prediction: Cardinals 35, Texans 21
- My Pick: Texans +17
Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers (-4)
San Francisco was reeling going into their bye but should rebound with Jimmy Garoppolo back under center and two weeks for Kyle Shanahan to prepare. But, the Colts have been playing well and should get their own reinforcements in the form of Quenten Nelson and Darius Leonard. Before their bye, the 49ers dropped three consecutive games both straight up and ATS, while Indianapolis has gone 3-0 versus the number in their last three.
- My Prediction: San Francisco 24 Indianapolis 23
- My Pick: Colts +4
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (+4.5)
The Saints have been very good against the run, but that might not matter. Seattle may be down to their third starting running back of the season and that’s bad news for an offense that is also trotting out Geno Smith. The Seahawks are normally a very tough out at home but it’s hard to get excited about this offense facing a well-rested New Orleans squad that is getting healthier.
- My Prediction: New Orleans 26 Seattle 20
- My Pick: Saints -4.5
Thursday Night Pick:
Browns -2 ✅ ✅
