NFL Picks
If you’ve been following our weekly pick’em column all season, you’ll know we had a pretty successful year. We went 170-86 (66%) on straight-up picks and 132-123 (52%) against the spread. Our over/under picks was the only thing that didn’t make the 50% mark, but just barely at a record of 124-130 (49%). Overall, this was great accuracy against the industry and ranked top 15 at Tallysight among 780 industry experts. We’re bringing the same process that brought us success throughout the regular season to the postseason to help provide you picks for each game.
For this article, we dig through both games of the NFL Conference Championship slate to provide the top matchup notes worth knowing with a brief overview and picks for each game. Betting trends are found thanks to Team Rankings.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3) (O/U 51.5)
- The Bucs are averaging 30.7 PPG overall this season (second-most in the NFL) and 35 PPG over their last three games.
- The Packers have allowed 22.8 PPG overall this season and just 16 PPG over their last three games.
- The Packers are averaging 31.8 PPG overall this season (most in the NFL) and 35.7 PPG over their last three games.
- The Bucs have allowed 22.1 PPG this season.
- The home team has won five of the last six matchups between these teams.
- The Packers are 14-1 straight-up in their last 15 home games.
- The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five NFC Championship games.
- The Packers are 11-6 ATS this season — third-best in the NFL.
- The Packers are 3-0 ATS in their last three games.
- The Bucs are 10-8 ATS this season.
- The Bucs are 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
- The OVER is 10-7 for the Packers this season.
- The OVER is 6-0 in the last six postseason home games for the Packers.
- The OVER is 3-0 in the last three games for the Packers.
- The OVER is 10-8 for the Bucs this season.
- Vegas has an implied total of 27.2-24.2 in favor of the Packers.
- The public likes the Bucs to win and cover with the over a heavy favorite to hit.
Let’s go! This should be a phenomenal game right here in a unique Battle of the Bays. We get the top-two offenses in the league squaring it off with two future Hall of Fame QBs playing at peak form. This is also a rematch of a Week 6 game that saw the Bucs win 38-10 against the Packers.
The Bucs finally knocked off the Saints last week after losing to them twice during the regular season. They have now won six-straight. They have put up over 400 yards of total offense four times and surpassed 500 yards twice in that six-game span. They have only turned the ball over twice in that span, and their defense has held half of their opponents under 200 passing yards. Their defense has also accounted for 10 turnovers over their last six games, forcing four against the Saints just last week.
The Packers have been even hotter over the back half of the season. They have won seven-straight and against tougher opponents than what the Bucs have faced as of late. The Pack has put up over 30 points in seven of their last eight games, and their defense has held five of their last six opponents to fewer than 20 points. The Packers have also been extremely careful with the ball this season, turning it over just 11 times on offense.
The stats show a solid back-and-forth battle here. The Packers rank higher in points and total yards this season. The Packers also rank first in the league in time of possession, where the Bucs rank 25th. The Packers have been extremely efficient, ranking second in third-down conversion percentage while the Bucs rank 11th. We see more advantage in favor of the Packers in the red zone this season, where they’ve converted 78.5% of RZ drives into scores while the Bucs have converted on a respectable 63.9% of RZ drives.
On defense, we see the Bucs take some of the advantages away from the Packers, but it’s far from drastic. The Bucs defense has allowed fewer points and total yards to opposing offenses this season. They’re notably led by their league-best run defense, which has made it difficult for opponents to sustain drives. They have allowed the fifth-fewest first downs to opponents this season and rank top-five in turnovers forced. Those will be tougher to come by in this matchup while the Packers have turned the ball over fewer than any other offense in the league, but the Pack had their worst game of the season against this Bucs defense earlier this season. Aaron Rodgers threw two picks in that game while taking four sacks.
It’s hard to judge a game like this when you have seen teams play each other during the regular season, and the outcome was completely lopsided. As we saw last week, with the Bucs finally beating the Saints, anything can happen in the playoffs. The trends here also fully support the Packers coming out on the winning side of this game as home favorites, putting me mostly against the public, in my opinion.
Final Prediction: Packers win 30-28
Picks: Bucs +3, Over 51.5
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) (O/U 53.5)
- The Bills are averaging 30.3 PPG this season — third-most in the NFL.
- The Chiefs have allowed 22.3 PPG this season.
- The Chiefs are averaging 29.1 PPG overall this season (fifth-most) but just 20 PPG over their last three games.
- The Bills have allowed 22.3 PPG overall this season and just 17.7 PPG over their last three games.
- The home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven AFC Championship games.
- The Chiefs are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games against the Bills.
- The road team is 4-1 SU in the last five games between these teams.
- The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five games between these teams.
- The OVER is 11-6-1 for the Bills this season.
- The BIlls are 12-6 ATS this season — second-best in the NFL.
- The Chiefs are 7-10 ATS this season.
- The Chiefs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.
- Vegas has an implied total of 28.2-25.2 in favor of the Chiefs.
- The public likes the Chiefs to win but the Bills to cover with the over hitting.
The evening game of our Conference matchups presents another opportunity for a shootout. This game’s line opened at 55 points and saw a high of 55.5 but seems to have settled right around 53.5. In the Week 6 contest between these teams, the Chiefs won, 26-17. They dominated the Bills in time of possession and compiled 466 total yards while the Bills struggled to muster up 206 total yards. Josh Allen threw for only 122 yards with two TDs and one pick.
The Bills had a phenomenal season by all accounts, but I can’t help but feel like they’ve lucked their way through the playoffs thus far. They beat two incredibly tough opponents in the Colts and Ravens, but when you analyze the stats, you could easily argue that they should have lost both of those games. Both the Colts and Ravens put up more yards of offense and secured more first downs than the Bills. The Colts were actually the first team in NFL history to put up over 450 yards of offense, have no turnovers, and manage to lose in a playoff game. The previous 11 teams that fit those criteria had all won their contests. Then, the Ravens fell apart again, with Lamar Jackson showing a lack of leadership abilities. The Bills offense only put together 220 total yards of offense against Baltimore and still won.
The Chiefs have been somewhat the same where they’re winning games, but there seem to be some flaws, and they’re not as dominating as they have been with Mahomes under center. Their underperforming ways are evident in their poor ATS record this season. They narrowly beat the Browns last week, 22-17. Aside from a meaningless Week 17 game against the Chargers, their last eight games have been decided by fewer than one score.
We get a tight battle here when comparing the stats. The Bills have scored more points this season, but the Chiefs rank first in total yards and passing yards. The teams are tied for the league-lead in first downs, and both rank top three in third-down conversion percentage. Where we see some stark differences on offense is the Chiefs have been more careful with the ball, ranking fourth in fewest turnovers while the Bills rank 20th. The Chiefs also rank seventh in total offensive plays while the Bills are averaging ranking 15th. Both teams could also use a good once-over of the NFL rules handbook as they both rank top eight in most offensive penalties this season.
On defense, we see a stronger advantage in favor of the Bills. While the Chiefs have allowed fewer points this season, the Bills have allowed fewer total yards to their opponents and notably rank top three in turnovers forced. All-around, both defenses are merely average. This would certainly favor the potential for a shootout if both offenses were putting together peak performances. Still, with both offenses playing slightly below their potential, the total could be kept in check here. I think the Bills’ luck runs out, and we’re going to see a Packers/Chiefs Super Bowl.
Final Prediction: Chiefs win 27-23
Picks: Chiefs -3, Under 53.5
