NFL Picks
The Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs did not disappoint as we had two full days of nonstop NFL action. Picks are always tough to nail in the postseason, but we went 4-2 SU. The spread and total picks both fell just below 50%. Hopefully, we get some better luck this week in the divisional round as we inch closer to the Super Bowl.
If you’ve been following our weekly pick’em column all season, you’ll know we had a pretty successful year. We went 170-86 (66%) on straight-up picks and 132-123 (52%) against the spread. Our over/under picks was the only thing that didn’t make the 50% mark, but just barely at a record of 124-130 (49%). Overall, this was great accuracy against the industry and ranked top 15 at Tallysight among 780 industry experts. We’re bringing the same process that brought us success throughout the regular season to the postseason to help provide you picks for each game.
For this article, we dig through every game of the Divisional Round Playoff slate to provide the top matchup notes worth knowing with a brief overview and picks for each game. Betting trends are found thanks to Team Rankings.
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LA Rams at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) (O/U 45.5)
- The Rams are averaging 23.6 PPG overall this season and just 19 PPG over their last three games.
- The Packers have allowed 23.1 PPG overall this season and just 15.3 PPG over their last three games.
- The Packers are averaging 31.8 PPG this season — most in the NFL.
- The Rams have allowed 18.6 PPG overall this season (fewest in the NFL) and 15.7 PPG over their last three games.
- The Packers are 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Rams.
- The Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against the Rams.
- The Packers are 10-6 ATS this season.
- The Rams are 10-7 ATS this season.
- The OVER is 9-7 for the Packers this season.
- The UNDER IS 12-5 for the Rams this season — second-most in the NFL.
- Vegas has an implied total of 26-19.5 in favor of the Packers.
- The public likes the Packers to win and cover with the under hitting.
The Rams came away with one of the Wild Card Round’s biggest upsets, defeating the Seahawks, 30-20 despite coming into the game as three-point underdogs. The Rams have faced a divisional opponent in each of their last three games, which is always a tough task, especially this season in the NFC West, but they came away with a win in two of those three games. They have covered the spread in each of their last two games and saw the over hit last week for the first time in their last five games.
The Packers are coming into the divisional round as the second-biggest favorite of the weekend. They finished the season hot with six-straight wins and scored at least 30 points in five of those six games. It wasn’t all cupcake matchups over the final stretch for the Pack either, as they faced the Bears twice and the Titans once during that streak. Their defense has been on a roll as well for the better part of the back half of the season. They haven’t allowed more than 16 points to four of their last six opponents. This, paired with the Rams league-best scoring defense, has driven this game’s total to be the lowest of the divisional round. We expect weather conditions to be near-freezing at game time, with the temperature projected at 34 degrees.
Comparing stats for a matchup like this always makes you want to lean towards the spread for the underdog. You get the league’s top-scoring offense in the Packers against the defense that has allowed the fewest points to opponents in the Rams. Some keys on offense here are that the Packers have been the most careful with the ball on offense this season, accounting for the fewest turnovers in the league. I think the biggest battle to watch here and what could ultimately determine the game’s outcome will be the time of possession. Both offenses rank top-three in this category, and both defenses rank top three in fewest plays allowed to opponents. Whichever defense can’t hold up in this category could really struggle. Despite the Packers being the highest-scoring offense in the league, they ranked bottom-five in total offensive plays this season while the Rams ranked third.
Turnovers will easily be a big key to this game as well. The Packers defense has forced five turnovers in their last three games. Last week was the first game all season that the Rams offense didn’t turn the ball over once. They ranked top-eight in most offensive turnovers this season aside from that. The Rams offense has also struggled greatly to move the ball over the back half of the season. They’ve been held under 200 passing yards in four of their last six games and under 250 passing yards in five of their last six.
Ultimately, I don’t think the Rams offense has what it takes to go toe-to-toe against the Packers at Lambeau. Both defenses are also performing at a level that probably won’t let this game get out of hand with the total, as apparent in the low number set. The Packers are definitely the superior team here, but the defensive battle we may see could keep the Rams within one score at the end of the day.
Final Prediction: Packers win 24-20
Picks: Rams +6.5, Under 45.5
Check For Updates: NFL Live Odds
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-2.5) (O/U 49.5)
- The Ravens are averaging 28.7 PPG this season.
- The Bills have allowed 23.5 PG overall this season but just 19.7 PPG over their last three games.
- The Bills are averaging 31.1 PPG overall this season (second-most) and 40.3 PPG over their last three games.
- The Ravens have allowed 18.6 PPG overall this season (second-fewest) and just 9.7 PPG over their last three games.
- The Ravens are 6-3 SU and ATS against the Bills dating back to 1999.
- The home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine games between these teams.
- The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine games between these teams.
- The OVER is 11-5-1 for the Bills this season — second-most in the NFL.
- The UNDER is 10-7 for the Ravens this season.
- Both teams are 11-6 ATS this season — tied for second-best in the NFL.
- The Ravens have a 10.1 point average margin of victory this season — highest in the NFL.
- Vegas has an implied total of 26-23.5 in favor of the Bills.
- The public likes the Bills to win and cover with the over hitting.
With the smallest spread of the weekend, this game will be one of the toughest to peg from a betting perspective. Both teams are coming in with a lot of momentum after wins in the Wild Card Round. The Ravens probably have the most momentum, having finally shaken the Titans, beating them 20-13. This marks the sixth win in a row for Baltimore and their seventh-straight ATS victory. The under has hit in three straight for them as well. This is just the third time all season that the Ravens have been an underdog, and they covered the spread in both occurrences this season.
The Bills have had a similar hot streak to end the season. They have won seven-straight and covered the spread in eight of their last nine games. You could argue that they got by the Colts with a little luck as the Colts has a more impressive game on paper aside from the final score.
By most accounts, the Bills have been the better offense between these teams this season. They’ve scored the second-most points in the league and accrued the second-most total offensive yards. Josh Allen had a historic season for the franchise as the team led the league in third-down conversion percentage and ranked third in passing yards. The only area the Ravens have a sizable edge on offense is with their league-best rushing attack.
On defense, we see a solid shift in favor of the Ravens. They allowed the second-fewest points in the league this season and rank top 10 in fewest offensive yards allowed. The Bills defense has been average for the most part with a strength in forcing turnovers, where they rank third in the league. Turnovers will easily be a key to this game. The Ravens have been more careful this season, ranking top 10 in the fewest offensive turnovers while the Bills rank 20th. The Bills offense has multiple turnovers in seven games this season. The Ravens have just three games with multiple offensive turnovers in comparison.
You never want to read too much into just one game when analyzing a team, but I think that the Bills looked far less impressive last week than what we had seen from them over the back half of the season. However, their list of opponents they faced over the back half was also far tougher than that the Ravens had faced. The Bills beat the Colts, Dolphins, and Steelers over their last five games, all playoff-caliber teams. The Ravens beat the Titans and Browns over their last five games but otherwise dominated scrubs like the Bengals, Giants, and Jags. Comparing these teams’ performances against common opponents is also a telling factor. The Ravens lost to the Steelers twice this season while the Bills beat them by 11. The Ravens also lost to the Patriots this season while the Bills beat them twice, and once by 29 points on the road.
I think we see definitely see a spirited competition here, but the Bills seem like the stronger team all around and could build towards a Super Bowl run.
Final Prediction: Bills win 27-24
Picks: Bills -2.5, Over 49.5
Check For Updates: NFL Live Odds
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-10) (O/U 57)
- The Browns are averaging 26.8 PPG this season.
- The Chiefs have allowed 22.6 PPG overall this season and 27 PPG over their last three games.
- The Chiefs are averaging 29.6 PPG overall this season and just 23.3 PPG over their last three games.
- The Browns have allowed 26.8 PPG overall this season and 30.4 PPG on the road.
- The Chiefs are 4-1 SU in their last five games against the Browns dating back to 2010.
- The Browns are 3-2 ATS in their last five games against the Chiefs.
- The Browns are 7-10 ATS this season.
- The Chiefs are 7-9 ATS this season.
- The Chiefs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.
- The OVER is 10-7 for the Browns this season.
- The OVER is 5-1 in the Browns’ last six games against divisional opponents.
- The OVER is 8-8 for the Chiefs this season.
- Vegas has an implied total of 33.5-23.5 in favor of the Chiefs.
- The public likes the Chiefs to win by a landslide and cover with the over hitting.
The first game of Sunday’s slate gives us a matchup with the biggest spread and total of the weekend. The Browns have fought every inch of the way to get where they’re at this season. They bullied their way past the Steelers in back-to-back games and are now rewarded with a daunting matchup against the top-seed Chiefs. The Browns have won seven of their last nine games with losses to just the Ravens and the Jets.
The Chiefs are well-rested after their first-round bye. They have won each of their last 10 meaningful games but lost to the Chargers in Week 17. The Chiefs have struggled greatly to cover the spread in the second half this season, and they’re just 2-4 ATS when they were favored by 10 points or more this season.
We see some lopsided differences when comparing these offenses. The Chiefs recorded the most passing yards in the league this season, while the Browns’ passing game has been just average. However, the Browns rushing attack is the third-best in the league this season, while the Chiefs have been average there. The Chiefs have been one of the best teams in the league when it comes to third-down conversion percentage, but the Browns have been more efficient in the red zone, converting 72.4% of RZ drives into a score compared to 61% for KC.
Both teams have been right about average on defense, and neither has been particularly stellar in any category. The Chiefs are right at the edge of the top 10 when it comes to fewest points allowed to opponents, but they have been far from lights out. They have recently allowed 29 points to the Saints, 27 points to the Dolphins, and 31 points to both the Raiders and Panthers. The Raiders also blew them out, putting up 40 points earlier this season. The Browns have been worse on defense. They allowed 37 to the Steelers last week and 47 to the Ravens five weeks back. In all, They’ve allowed an opponent to put up 30 points or more eight times this season.
I fully support the over hitting here. The Browns’ rushing attack should cut through the Chiefs’ below-average run defense while the Chiefs’ passing game will attack the Browns’ subpar passing defense. If you’re betting on a shoot out, you’re definitely not going to bet against the team that has Patrick Mahomes under center, but the Browns have shown capable of hanging in there when the scoring gets crazy as well, making them an attractive bet ATS.
Final Prediction: Chiefs win 34-27
Picks: Browns +10, Over 57
Check For Updates: NFL Live Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3) (O/U 52)
- The Bucs are averaging 30.8 PPG overall this season and 40.3 PPG over their last three games.
- The Saints have allowed 20.4 PPG overall this season and just 16.3 PPG over their last three games.
- The Saints are averaging 29.6 PPG overall this season and 35.3 PPG over their last three games.
- The Bucs have allowed 22.2 PPG overall this season and 19 PPG over their last three games.
- The Saints are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games against the Bucs.
- The OVER is 3-2 in the last five games between these teams.
- The OVER is 10-7 for both teams this season.
- The OVER is 6-0 in the last six games the Bucs have played as road dogs.
- The Saints are 10-7 ATS this season.
- The Bucs are 9-8 ATS this season.
- Vegas has an implied total of 27.5-24.5 in favor of the Saints.
- The public likes the Bucs to win and cover and are split on the O/U.
We get a solid battle once more this season between these two future Hall of Famers and current divisional opponents. Actually, I don’t know if you could really call it a “battle” based on the results we have already seen this season. The Saints have had Tom Brady’s number this season, beating the Bucs by more than 10 points twice. Before this season, the Brady/Belichick duo held a 4-1 record against the Saints, so it’s not necessarily a trend of the Saints always getting the best of Brady. Either way, their last meeting was ugly, where the Saints won 38-3. The Bucs were held scoreless up until a Ryan Succop field goal finally put points on the board with just under six minutes left in the game. In that game, the Saints held the Bucs to just 194 total yards and eight, count them, eight rushing yards. The Saints completely dominated the time of possession, with the Bucs holding the ball for just under 20 minutes. The Bucs converted just once on nine third-down attempts and turned the ball over three times.
The Bucs have played better lately, sure. But against who? They beat a Taylor Heinicke-led Washington team in the Wild Card Round. They beat a pitiful Falcons team at the end of the season twice and demolished a Lions team who basically had a towel boy as a head coach by the end of the season. How have they performed against fellow playoff contenders this season? They lost to the Chiefs, Rams, and Bear once and lost to the Saints twice. Their one impressive win this season was against the Packers back in October.
Comparing stats overall this season gives you the indication that this should be a close contest. Both teams boast top five offenses and top 10 defenses. Both teams are also trending up on both sides of the ball. The Bucs have been capable of more volume this season, ranking third in total points and fourth in passing yards. They’re a clear-cut pass-first offense with their running game ranking bottom five in the league, though we did see Leonard Fournette finally generate some decent production last week. The Saints are the opposite when it comes to their offensive attack, being a run-first unit led by Alvin Kamara. They rank sixth in rushing yards and just 20th in passing yards. This doesn’t match up well with the Bucs’ league-leading rush defense, but the Saints were still able to accumulate 138 rushing yards against the Bucs back in their Week 9 tilt, which was the second-most they’ve allowed this season. The Bucs also gave up 162 yards on the ground to the Vikings back in Week 14.
The numbers match the close spread of this game, but it’s tough to read too much into that when we have two head-to-head games featuring these teams to go off of this season, and both had the same outcome. Saints won by more than 10. The Bucs could keep this game closer given Brady’s playoff experience, but there isn’t enough here for me to pick them to win straight-up.
Final Prediction: Saints win 26-22
Picks: Saints -3, Under 52
Check For Updates: NFL Live Odds
