NFL Pick’em: Week 10

NFL Pick'em: Week 10 We’re back with another week full of NFL Picks! We had some success picking over/unders (6-3-1) and moneyline picks (8-5) last week. All-in-all, with the season beyond the halfway point, it has been a successful year of picks. I’m currently sitting inside the top-25 at Tallysight.com amongst nearly 500 experts. We’ll keep the process rolling and provide all the insight you need to help gain an edge with your bets for this weekend.

For this article, we dig through every game of the Sunday slate to provide the top matchup notes worth knowing with a brief overview and picks for each game. Betting trends are found thanks to Team Rankings with some advanced matchup strength vs. weakness notes provided by Inside Edge. The view of the public here is based on the expert consensus picks at Betting Pros.

You can also find consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 10 of the NFL right here at Fantasy Data. Now, let’s get to the picks!

Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers (-13) (O/U 51)

The Jaguars are averaging 22.4 PPG this season.
The Packers have allowed 25.5 PPG this season.
The Packers are averaging 31.6 PPG this season — third-most in the NFL.
The Jaguars have allowed 30.9 PPG this season — second-most in the NFL.
The Packers are 6-2 ATS this season — tied for best in the NFL.
The Jaguars are 3-5 ATS this season — tied for fourth-worst in the NFL.
The OVER is 5-3 for both the Packers and Jags this season.
The Packers have scored on 51% of their drives this season — tied for third-best in NFL. The Jaguars defense has allowed scores on 53% of opponent drives this season — worst in NFL.
Aaron Rodgers has thrown 19 balls which were dropped this season — tied for most among NFL QBs.
Davante Adams has been targeted 13 times in the red zone this season — most among NFL WRs.
The Packers defense has allowed 22 broken tackles since Week 6 — most in NFL.
The Jaguars defense has allowed 8.8 yards after the catch to WRs since Week 6 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 4.5
Vegas has an implied total of 32-19 in favor of the Packers.
The public likes the Packers heavily to win and narrowly cover with the over hitting.

This should be one of the more lopsided games we see this weekend. The Packers started the season off red hot winning their first four games. They’ve been a lot more up and down since dropping two of their last four to the Bucs and Vikings. They reestablished some dominance last week, destroying the 49ers 34-17.

The Jaguars are playing to lose at this point. They haven’t won a game since Week 1 but were able to come within two points of the Texans last week in a backdoor cover. On average, the Jags have lost by more than one TD per game this season (-8.5 margin of victory), which is third-worst in the league.

The Packers have the edge in every meaningful offensive category here. The only thing the Jags are better at on offense is turning the ball over. Defense shares the same story as the Jags are one of the worst in the league there. The only place they have a slight advantage is in the red zone, where they have only let opponents score 57.6% of the time compared to 69.2% for the Packers. Unfortunately, teams are also having no problem scoring on the Jags from outside of the red zone, and we could see that here with Aaron Rodgers coming back to his prime form.

This should be one of the easiest wins the Pack gets all season as it’s probably their weakest opponent on their schedule. The only tough decision here is whether they cover. After last week’s display and a long week of rest, I think that’s entirely possible.

Final Prediction: Packers win 33-17

Picks: Packers -13, Under 51

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at New York Giants (O/U 44.5)

The Eagles are averaging 23.2 PPG this season.
The Giants have allowed 24.3 PPG this season.
The Giants are averaging 18.7 PPG this season — second-worst in the NFL.
The Eagles have allowed 25.6 PPG this season.
The Giants are 6-3 ATS this season and have covered in each of their last three games.
The Eagles are 3-5 ATS this season.
The UNDER is 6-3 for the Giants this season.
The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 games between these teams.
The Eagles have won each of their last eight games against the Giants and 12 of their last 13 against them.
The Giants have thrown for 20+ yards on 19 of 307 attempts this season — tied for worst in NFL. The Eagles allowed 20+ yards on 6.0% of attempts this season — tied for best in NFL.
The Eagles have gone three and out on 27% of their drives this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%
The Eagles defense has stuffed 25% (56/227) of rushing attempts this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 17%
The Giants have thrown the ball 67.0% of the time in the red zone this season — highest in NFL. The Eagles have allowed a completion rate of 70.0% when defending in the red zone this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.
Carson Wentz has completed just 25% of passes (14 completions/55 net pass attempts) when under pressure this season — worst of 34 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 44%
The Eagles have allowed 3 or more sacks in 7 games this season — most in NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 23.8-20.8 in favor of the Eagles.
The public likes the Eagles to win and cover with the over hitting.

We get a quick rematch here of a game we just saw a few weeks back where the Eagles beat the Giants in a nailbiter, 22-21. The Eagles have now strung together back-to-back wins against a divisional foe at home but are faced with hitting the road for the first time in their last three games.

The Giants barely managed a win against another divisional foe last week, knocking off Washington 23-20. Washington is the only team the Giants have managed to beat this season.

The Eagles have the statistical advantage in most important categories in this matchup. They’ve converted third downs at a higher rate, and converted red-zone drives into a score more often. The defenses are pretty evenly matched. The Giants have allowed slightly fewer points per game on average this season and have allowed opponents to score in the red zone on just 52.8% of drives as opposed to 69.2% for Philly. We know that this game could be really tight as it was just a few weeks back, making it one to avoid for betting purposes.

Final Prediction: Eagles win 22-20

Picks: Giants +3, Under 44.5

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3.5) (O/U 49)

The Texans are averaging 24.1 PPG this season.
The Browns have allowed 29.6 PPG overall this season but just 22.2 PPG at home.
The Browns are averaging 25.8 PPG overall this season but just 16.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Texans have allowed 30.2 PPG this season — fourth-most in the NFL.
The Texans are 1-7 ATS this season — second-worst in the NFL.
The Browns are 3-5 ATS this season — fourth-worst in the NFL.
The OVER is 5-3 for both teams this season.
The Texans have won and covered in each of their last five games against the Browns.
Browns RBs have averaged 3.0 yards after contact per carry this season — tied for best in NFL. The Texans have allowed 2.7 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — third-worst in NFL.
The Browns are averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season — second-best in NFL. The Texans have allowed 5.4 yards per carry to RBs this season — tied for worst in NFL.
The Texans defense has allowed 160.9 rushing yards per game this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 118.5
The Texans defense has allowed 9.9 yards after the catch to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.4
The Texans defense has allowed 9.0 TDs per interception this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.2
Deshaun Watson has a passer rating of 105.2 when scrambling this season — best of 21 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 53.1
Vegas has an implied total of 26.2-22.8 in favor of the Browns.
The public likes the Browns to win with the Texans covering and the over hitting.

Similar to the Giants above, the Texans have only had luck beating one team this season, and that team is the Jaguars. They’ve lost to every other opponent this season and only managed to cover the spread once to boot.

The Browns had some success early on this season, starting 4-1. They’ve shown some serious struggles as of late, failing to score more than seven points against both the Steelers and Raiders. They were still able to put up a stronger performance against the Bengals between those tough losses where they put up 37 points. You hate to see this kind of volatility from a team, making them extremely difficult to trust when placing bets.

These teams are pretty evenly matched on offense. The Texans have shown a stronger passing game averaging 297 yards per game compared to just 204.3 for the Browns. To counter that, the Browns offer a much stronger running game, which could get a boost with the return of Nick Chubb this week, while the Texans could be losing David Johnson for the week.

The Browns running game should dominate this game, supporting them being the favorite, though I don’t really trust them to cover.

Final Prediction: 27-24

Picks: Texans +3, Over 49

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) at Carolina Panthers (O/U 50.5)

The Bucs are averaging 27.8 PPG this season.
The Panthers have allowed 25.1 PPG overall this season and 28.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Panthers are averaging 23.3 PPG this season.
The Bucs have allowed 22.6 PPG overall this season and 27 PPG over their last three games.
The Panthers have run successful plays on 40.0% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL. Buccaneers have allowed successful plays on 44.0% of pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — tied for third-best in NFL.
The Buccaneers defense has allowed 3.8 yards from scrimmage per touch to RBs this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 4.9
The Buccaneers have forced 2 or more turnovers in 6 games this season — tied for most in NFL.
The Buccaneers defense has pressured opposing QBs 100 times since Week 14 of 2019 — most in the NFL.
The Panthers have gone three and out on 8% of their drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 18%
Vegas has an implied total of 28-22.5 in favor of the Bucs.
The public likes the Bucs to win and cover with the over hitting.

This is a rematch from Week 2 of this season, where the Bucs won 31-17. The Panthers have dropped four straight, and their parade of tough opponents continues this week as they take on a Bucs team coming off their worst game of the season. The Bucs lost 3-38 at home against the Saints.

The Bucs have scored more points on offense this season, but we see the Panthers have put up solid volume on offense as well. The Panthers have averaged slightly more total yards per game on average and have converted third downs at a higher rate. The Bucs have been better in the red zone converting 75% of RZ drives into a score compared to 60% for Carolina.

The Bucs hold the primary advantage in the most crucial categories of defense. The Panthers have allowed opponents to score on slightly fewer red-zone drives.

All-in-all, you have to like the Bucs to bounce back here though they are far from a slam dunk. With both defenses allowing more than their average PPG on defense as well, I think the over could be a strong play here.

Final Prediction: Bucs win 28-24

Picks: Panthers +5.5, Over 50.5

Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions (-3.5) (O/U 46.5)

WFT is averaging 19.1 PPG this season — third-fewest in the NFL.
The Lions have allowed 30 PPG this season — fifth-most in the NFL.
The Lions are averaging 24.6 PPG this season.
WFT has allowed 23.5 PPG overall this season but just 15.3 PPG over their last three games.
The OVER is 5-3 for the Lions this season.
The UNDER is 5-3 for WFT this season.
The UNDER has hit in each of the last four games for WFT.
The UNDER is 8-1-1 over the last 10 games between these teams.
The Lions are 4-1 straight up and ATS in their last five games against Washington.
The game-winner has also covered the spread in each of the last 13 games between these teams.
Detroit Lions WRs have caught just 69 of 128 passes (54% Reception Pct) since Week 16 of 2019 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 64%
The Lions defense has allowed 15 TDs since Week 6 — most in NFL.
The WFT defense has hit opposing QBs on 29% of pass attempts since Week 6 — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%
The WFT defense has allowed 180 yards after the catch since Week 6 — fewest in NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 25-21.5 in favor of the Lions.
The public likes the Lions to win but WFT to cover with the under hitting.

The Lions could get an opportunity to help turn their season around here as they’ve been blown out in each of their last two games. They lost by 20 points to the Colts two weeks ago and lost by 14 last week against the Vikes. Their poor defensive performances have assisted in the over hitting in back-to-back weeks.

Washington couldn’t put together a game-winning drive behind Alex Smith last week as they lost to the Giants 20-23. Their only two wins this season have come against their fellow weak divisional foes, the Eagles and Cowboys, and both of those games were at home. They’re 0-3 on the road this season.

The Lions unsurprisingly hold the offensive edge in most categories here while WFT has the edge on defense. The trends all strongly point towards the Lions winning and covering with the under hitting here, and I think that’s exactly what happens. Washington just doesn’t have the offensive ability to take advantage of the Lions’ weak defense like the Colts and Vikings did.

Final Prediction: Lions win 24-20

Picks: Lions -3.5, Under 46.5

Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals (-1) (O/U 56)

The Bills are averaging 26.9 PPG this season.
The Cardinals have allowed 22.5 PPG overall this season and 27.2 PPG at home.
The Cardinals are averaging 29.2 PPG overall this season and 35.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Bills have allowed 25.9 PPG this season.
The Cardinals are 5-3 ATS this season.
The OVER is 6-2-1 for the Bills this season — third-most in the NFL.
The UNDER is 6-2 for the Cardinals this season — tied for most in the NFL.
The Cardinals have 13 rushing touchdowns this season — tied for second-most in NFL. The Bills have allowed 13 rushing TDs this season — tied for most in NFL.
The Cardinals have run successful plays on 45.0% of rush attempts this season — tied for ninth-best in NFL. Bills have allowed successful plays on 54.0% of rush attempts this season — worst in NFL.
Cardinals RBs have averaged 3.0 yards before contact per carry this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 2.1
The Cardinals defense has allowed 5 rushing TDs this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
The Bills have run successful plays on 51% of plays this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 45%
Bills WRs have caught 166 of 232 passes (72% Reception Pct) this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 66%
The Bills defense has forced 8 turnovers since Week 6 — tied for most in NFL.
The Bills have run 71% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 54%
Vegas has an implied total of 28.5-27.5 in favor of the Cardinals.
The public likes The Bills to win and cover with the over hitting.

The Cardinals dropped a heartbreaker last week against the Dolphins, ending a three-game winning streak. The Cards have been most impressive this season outside of a two-week skid where they lost against the Lions and Panthers. After the under hit in their first six games, they’ve seen the over hit in back-to-back weeks.

The Bills are sitting in first place in the AFC East and are coming off their most impressive win of the season against the Seahawks, 44-34. I didn’t have much faith in the Bills putting together a solid performance last week, but the Seahawks defense is really just awful.

On offense, the Cards hold the advantage here in most categories, led by their impressive 162.9 rushing yards per game. They’ve also converted 75% of red-zone drives into a score compared to 61.5% for the Bills. On defense, we see a mixed bag. The Cards have allowed fewer points per game but slightly more total yards. They have also only let opponents convert 37.9% of third downs, and 50% of red-zone drives into a score, both better than Buffalo.

The Bills made enough noise last week to moves the lines for sure, but I still have more doubts about them than I do the Cardinals.

Final Prediction: Cardinals win 27-24

Picks: Cardinals -1, Under 56

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins (-1) (O/U 48)

The Chargers are averaging 25.6 PPG overall this season and 31.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Dolphins have allowed 20.1 PPG overall this season (tied for fourth-best) and just 16 PPG over their last three games.
The Dolphins are averaging 27.8 PPG this season.
The Chargers have allowed 27 PPG this season.
The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS this season — best in the NFL.
The Chargers are 5-3 ATS this season.
The OVER has hit in each of the last five games for the Chargers.
The UNDER is 15-1 in the last 16 games between these teams dating back to 1995.
The road team has won each of the last three games between these teams.
The Chargers have averaged 430 yards from scrimmage per game (3,443 YFS / 8 G) this season — second-best in NFL.
The Dolphins have averaged 265.7 yards from scrimmage per game since Week 6 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 371.0
The Dolphins have gone three and out on 24% of their drives this season — tied for third-worst in NFL. Chargers have forced three and outs on 24% of opponent drives this season — fifth-best in NFL.
The Dolphins defense has stuffed 10% of rushing attempts (2/21) in the red zone to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 22%
Vegas has an implied total of 24.5-23.5 in favor of the Dolphins.
The public likes the Dolphins to win and cover with the over hitting.

The Dolphins have a top-10 scoring offense and a top-five defense this season. If you had predicted before the season had started, most people would have thought you were crazy. They have now strung together a four-game winning streak after knocking off the Cardinals on the road last week. They’ve covered the spread in each of their last four wins as well as they were underdogs in three of those contests. They’ve only been the favorite once this season before this game.

The Chargers have played so much better than their 2-6 record implies this season. They have lost close games in back-to-back weeks against divisional opponents, but Justin Herbert continues to look like the real deal.

The offensive stats are fairly back and forth in this matchup. The Chargers have averaged almost 100 total yards of offense per game more than the Dolphins, however. They have also converted third downs at a higher rate, though neither team has been phenomenal there. The Dolphins have the edge in the red zone, having converted 64.5% of RZ drives into a score compared to 57.7% for LA. The Dolphins have the primary advantage on defense, though the Chargers have held opponents in the red zone better with a 56% conversion rate while the Dolphins have allowed opponents to score on 68% of RZ drives.

Both teams have been pretty strong in holding off their opponents from converting third downs this season, which is a key indicator for me in taking the under. This game should be close for sure, but the Dolphins have the better all-around form and luck on their side to seal the deal.

Final Prediction: Dolphins win 23-21

Picks: Dolphins -1, Under 48

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-4) (O/U 50)

The Broncos are averaging 21.8 PPG overall this season and 25.8 PPG on the road.
The Raiders have allowed 28.6 PPG overall this season and 33 PPG at home.
The Raiders are averaging 27.2 PPG overall this season and 22.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Broncos have allowed 27.1 PPG overall this season and 35.7 PPG over their last three games.
Both teams are 5-3 ATS this season.
The OVER is 6-1-1 for the Raiders this season — second-most in the NFL.
The OVER is 5-3 for the Broncos this season.
The UNDER has hit in each of the last seven games between these teams.
The home team is 8-0 in the last eight games between these teams.
The Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the Broncos.
The Broncos defense has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 182 carries to RBs this season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL.
The Raiders defense has allowed 13 rushing TDs on just 205 carries this season — worst Carries Per TD rate in NFL.
The Raiders defense has forced 4 turnovers this season — fewest in NFL.
Broncos WRs have caught just 45 of 85 passes (53% Reception Pct) since Week 6 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 65%
Vegas has an implied total of 27-23 in favor of the Raiders.
The public likes the Raiders to win with the Broncos covering and the over hitting.

We get the first meeting of the season between these division rivals in Week 10. The Broncos have vastly underperformed this season, though they’re trying to turn things around, having won three of their last four games. They’ve assisted in coaxing the over to hit in each of their last three games.

The Raiders have had a bit of an opposite story this season as they have performed better than expected. They’ve also won three of their last four, with two impressive wins coming against their other divisional opponents, the Chargers and Chiefs.

The Raiders have the offensive edge in most important categories here, while the Broncos have a slight edge on defense. Primarily we see the Broncos performing stronger in allowing a low 37.2% third-down conversion rate. They have also allowed opponents to score on just 48.3% of RZ drives.

The Raiders have shown a lot more this season to inspire confidence from a betting perspective, especially with a key win against the Chiefs. There is a real concern that the Broncos don’t cross the 20-point threshold here, making the under a sneaky play.

Final Prediction: Raiders win 27-20

Picks: Raiders -4, Under 50

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1) (O/U 54.5)

The Seahawks are averaging 34.2 PPG this season — most in the NFL.
The Rams have allowed 19 PPG overall this season (second-fewest) and just 12 PPG at home.
The Rams are averaging 24.1 PPG overall this season but just 19 PPG over their last three games.
The Seahawks have allowed 30.4 PPG overall this season (third-most) and 36 PPG over their last three games.
The OVER is 6-2 for the Seahawks this season — third-most in the NFL.
The UNDER is 6-2 for the Rams this season — most in the league.
The Rams are 7-3 straight-up in their last 10 games against the Seahawks.
The Rams have 11 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for third-most in NFL. The Seahawks have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for third-most in NFL.
The Rams have averaged 406 yards from scrimmage per game (3,247 YFS / 8 G) this season — eighth-best in NFL. The Seahawks have allowed an average of 466.1 yards from scrimmage per game (3,729/8) this season — worst in NFL.
The Rams have been successful on 49.0% of plays they have run this season — tied for third-best in NFL. Seahawks have allowed their opponents to be successful on 48.0% of plays this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL.
The Seahawks defense has allowed 362.1 passing yards per game this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 245.5
The Seahawks have run successful plays on 51% of plays this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 45%
The Seahawks have averaged 317.6 passing yards per game this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 260.4
The Rams have forced a three and out on 27% of their drives this season — best in NFL. The Seahawks have forced three and outs on 13% of opponent drives this season — fourth-worst in NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 27.8-26.8 in favor of the Rams.
The public likes the Seahawks to win and cover with the over hitting.

This is the first meeting of the season between these divisional opponents. The Rams have enjoyed a bounce-back year after their disappointing season in 2019. Their defense has been one of the best in the league when it comes to opponent points per game and assisted in the under hitting in each of the last five games. Their offense has been good enough to get them a handful of wins.

The Seahawks have been one of the most explosive offenses in the league this season as they’ve only lost to the Cardinals and Bills. They’ve scored no fewer than 27 points in every game this season. This will be one of their toughest tests here, considering the Rams have only allowed 12 PPG at home this season.

The individual betting trends for both teams point in opposite directions, making this a tough one to peg. The under has crushed for the Rams, and they’ve been stingy at home, though against much weaker opponents. The over has crushed for most games involving the Seahawks, including each of the last three.

This is a classic case of one of the leagues best offenses facing one of the leagues best defenses. At the end of the day, I like the Seahawks offense to be able to show up against the Rams and take the win despite their lousy defense.

Final Prediction: Seahawks win 28-26

Picks: Seahawks -1, Under 54.5

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-10) (O/U 49)

The 49ers are averaging 25 PPG overall this season and 31.8 PPG on the road.
The Saints have allowed 25 PPG this season.
The Saints are averaging 30.5 PPG this season — fourth-most in the NFL.
The 49ers have allowed 23 PPG overall this season and just 16.2 PPG on the road.
The OVER is 7-1 for the Saints this season.
The OVER is 6-1 over the last seven games between these teams.
The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Saints.
The road team has won each of the last three games between these teams.
49ers RBs have averaged 1.7 yards after contact per carry this season — tied for third-worst in NFL. The Saints have allowed 1.7 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — tied for best in NFL.
49ers WRs have averaged 7.5 yards after the catch this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 4.4
The 49ers have rushed for 15 TDs this season — most in NFL.
The Saints defense has allowed 3 TDs in the red zone to RBs this season — fewest in NFL.
The 49ers defense has allowed 3 rushing TDs to RBs this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
The Saints defense has allowed 47.3 rushing yards per game since Week 6 — best in NFL; League Avg: 117.4
The Saints defense has allowed 639 rushing yards this season — fewest in NFL.
The 49ers have not forced a fumble in 8 games this season.
Alvin Kamara has gained 542 yards after the catch this season — most among NFL RBs.
Vegas has an implied total of 29.5-19.5 in favor of the Saints.
The public likes the Saints to win and cover with the under hitting.

The Saints are coming off one of their most impressive wins of the season, beating the Bucs 38-3 last week. They’ve now won five straight as they sit on top of the NFC South. Last week was the first time this season we saw the under hit in a game for the Saints this season.

The 49ers have been all over the place this season as injuries continue to rule. They’ve dropped back-to-back games against the Seahawks and Packers.

The Saints have the advantage here in pretty much all offensive categories. The 49ers have converted their red-zone drives into a score more often at 69.7% compared to 63.9% for the Saints. These teams have pretty drastic differences in their recent forms, however.

Final Prediction: Saints win 28-17

Picks: Saints -10, Under 49

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) (O/U 47.5)

The Bengals are averaging 24.2 PPG overall this season and 30.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Steelers have allowed 20.1 PPG this season –tied for fourth-fewest.
The Steelers are averaging 29.4 PPG this season — fifth-most in the NFL.
The Bengals have allowed 26.8 PPG this season.
Both teams are 6-2 ATS this season — tied for best in the NFL.
The OVER is 5-3 for the Bengals this season.
The UNDER has hit in each of the last four games and is 8-2 in the last 10 games between these teams.
The Steelers have won each of their last 10 games against the Bengals.
The Bengals have run successful plays on 24.0% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL. The Steelers have pressured opposing QBs on 43.0% of passing plays this season — best in NFL.
The Steelers defense has sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 6%
The Steelers have forced 2 or more turnovers in 6 games this season — tied for most in NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 27.5-20 in favor of the Steelers.
The public likes the Steelers to win, but the Bengals to cover with the over hitting.

The Bengals are coming fresh off a bye and got their second win of the season just before that against the Titans. The Bengals have been able to keep most games very close and, in many ways, resemble the season that the Chargers have put together.

The Steelers remain unbeaten at 8-0 this season though, they should have had a much more dominant performance against the Cowboys last week.

The Steelers have the advantage in most offensive categories. The Bengals have seen slightly more volume with their passing game playing from behind more often. The Steelers have been better at converting third downs and converting red-zone drives into a score. We see the Steelers carry the advantage on defense as well in all important categories.

The Steelers have dominated the Bengals for years now, having won 10 straight games against them. There’s no reason to think that changes this week, and with the Steelers playing at home, I would put my money on them covering as well.

Final Prediction: Steelers win 30-21

Picks: Steelers -7.5, Over 47.5

Baltimore Ravens (-7) at New England Patriots (O/U 43.5)

The Ravens are averaging 28.4 PPG this season.
The Patriots have allowed 24.2 PPG overall this season and 28 PPG over the last three games.
The Patriots are averaging 20.8 PPG this season — fifth-fewest in the NFL.
The Ravens have allowed 17.8 PPG overall this season (fewest in the NFL) and 22 PPG over the last three games.
The Patriots are 3-5 ATS this season.
The UNDER is 5-3 for the Ravens this season.
The OVER has hit in each of the last four games between these teams.
The home team has won each of the last three games between these teams.
The Ravens have rushed the ball on 51.0% of plays from scrimmage this season — tied for highest in NFL. The Patriots have allowed 4.8 yards per carry this season — tied for seventh-worst in NFL.
The Patriots have scored 7.4 points per game in the first half this season — worst in NFL. The Ravens have allowed 8.8 PPG during the first half this season — best in NFL.
The Patriots have scored on 53% of their drives in late and close games this season — tied for best in NFL. The Ravens defense has allowed scores on 53% of opponent drives in close and late situations this season — worst in NFL.
The Ravens have run successful plays on 25.0% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — sixth-worst in NFL. The Patriots have pressured opposing QBs on 29.0% of passing plays this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 25.2-18.2 in favor of the Ravens.
The public likes the Ravens to win and cover with the over hitting.

The Ravens handled a tough Colts defense well last week, winning 24-10. They’ve now won four of their last five games, with their only losses all season coming against the unbeaten Steelers and the Chiefs.

The Patriots are a shell of their former selves this season and narrowly got away with a win against the horrid Jets last week. It took a 51-yard field goal in the final seconds of the game to seal the deal. The Pats’ recent form is still pretty dreadful, having lost four of their last five games, and having Cam Newton back under center hasn’t made a huge difference.

The Ravens have the statistical edge in pretty much all aspects of this game. Even with the Pats pulling off a win last week, the fact that they struggled so much to beat the Jets marked a new season-low for them, in my opinion. They’re nowhere near the proper form to take on a team like the Ravens, and I worry about them pulling their weight to hit the implied total against this strong defense.

Final Prediction: Ravens win 27-17

Picks: Ravens -7, Over 43.5

NFL Pick’em: Week 10