NFL Pick’em Week 10: Man vs. Machine

NFL Pick’em Week 10

We are now just passed the halfway point of the NFL season. Week 9 was much more unpredictable than the previous week. We saw a few lopsided wins like the Texans beating the Jags 26-3 after these teams saw a closely contested, one-point game just earlier this season. The Bills stuck it to the Redskins 24-9. That was kind of expected, though the Bills hadn’t looked in best form entering the week which made the Skins +9 a semi-attractive bet (it wasn’t). And then there were the upsets! The Dolphins got their first win by a score of 26-18 against an embarrassing Jets team. The Chargers shut down a surging Packers offense by a score of 26-11. Baker Mayfield and the Browns couldn’t compete against the Broncos and their backup QB losing by a score of 19-24. And one of the most surprising upsets of the season, the Ravens handed the Patriots their first loss of the season on Sunday Night Football by a score of 37-20. 

After a dominating Week 8 in picks where I went 15-0 straight up and 19-7 in over/under and against the spread picks combined, there was only really one direction to go. Peaks and valleys my friends, peaks and valleys. The machine and I were yearning for the days of Week 8 as we both fell just under the 50% mark in Week 9 in ATS/OU combined. I did go 8-4 on O/U picks which helped boost my final total a bit and it helped propel man to a victory over the machine once again this week! After sitting at a 3-3 in Week 6 in our head-to-head record, man has now won three straight against the machine and holds the slightest edge in overall season record of ATS/OU picks.

In case this is your first time reading this column, here is a quick recap of what we are doing with our weekly pick’em coverage. We have partnered up with the folks over at Betting Antelope who will be providing “the machine” aspect of our weekly pick’em. If you’re unfamiliar with their product, Betting Antelope is an impressive machine learning model powered by SportsData.io and designed to predict moneyline, against the spread, over/under, and total team wins for NFL games. The model ingests data and trains itself each week as the season goes on, optimizing profitability by using a combination of regression and decision tree models to make picks. So this season, it’s my research, opinions, and instincts vs. the machine.

Now that we have recapped the season thus far, let’s take a look at our picks for Week 10! We have a heavy week of byes as the Broncos, Texans, Jags, Pats, Eagles, and Redskins all have the week off.

For more info see FantasyData’s Latest NFL Odds page here.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2.5)

Matchup Notes:

• Matthew Stafford threw two TDs and four INTs in two games against the Bears last season.
• Kenny Golladay has gained 20+ yards on 12 of his 31 receptions (38.7%) since Week 2 — best among NFL WRs
• The Lions defense has allowed 12 TD passes since Week 6 — tied for most in NFL.
• The Lions defense has allowed 20 receptions for 20+ yards since Week 6 — tied for most in NFL.
• Mitch Trubisky has thrown for over 300 yards in each of his last two games against the Lions.
• Mitch Trubisky has completed just 49.8% of passes against the blitz since the 2017 season — lowest of 28 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 59.8%
• Bears RBs have averaged 5.3 yards after the catch this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 7.7
• Bears RBs have averaged 1.2 yards after contact per carry (149 carries) this season — tied for lowest in NFL; League Avg: 2.2
• Kyle Fuller (CHI) has allowed 167 completions since the 2017 season — most among NFL defensive backs.
• The Lions lost both matchups against the Bears last season.
• The Lions are averaging 25.5 PPG this season.
• The Bears have allowed an average of 18 PPG overall this season but have allowed an average of 25 PPG over their last three games.
• The Bears are averaging 17.8 PPG overall this season but just 15 PPG at home.
• The Lions have allowed an average of 27.1 PPG overall this season but have allowed an average of 33 PPG over their last three games. 

The Bears will host the Lions in a battle for the cold and dreary cellar of the NFC North this week. Though their records are nearly identical this season, these two teams have looked nothing alike. The Lions’ weak defense has marred an otherwise impressive performance by the offense this season. The Lions have scored at least 30 points in two of their last three games and QB Matthew Stafford has accumulated 1,112 passing yards (370.7 YPG) over that short span. The team has only been held under 22 points in a game once all year. They only have three wins to show for it this season though and have dropped four of their last five games. Three of those four games were lost by just one-possession as well.

We know the Bears offense has been struggling all season, but they took it to a new low last week. The team had only managed nine yards of total offense in the first half of the game. NINE (9)! That’s not even enough for one first down! Mitch Trubisky has continued to be brutal at QB and has just five TDs in seven games. Those five TDs also came in the span of just two games, giving him five games total with zero TDs. Trubisky has had some success in the past against the Lions. He’s thrown for over 300 yards in each of his last two games against them with four TDs and three INTs in that span. The defense still has it’s strong suits for the Bears, but is nowhere near the terror it has been in the past. The team is looking to stop a four-game losing streak here at home and while the Lions defense is plenty generous, I just don’t know that the Bears offense is capable of taking advantage, just as we saw against the Eagles last week.

My Final Prediction: Lions win 24-20

My Pick: Lions +2.5, Over 41.5

Machine Pick: Bears -2.5, Over 41.5

Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup Notes:

• The Ravens have thrown the ball 43.6% of the time this season — 2nd lowest in NFL; League Avg: 54.9%
• The Ravens defensive line has missed just one tackle on 22 opportunities (4.5%) this season-best in NFL; League Avg: 18.4%
• The Ravens defense has allowed 8.8 yards from scrimmage per touch since Week 2 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 7.5
• Bengals RBs have averaged 3.3 yards from scrimmage per touch since Week 6 — lowest in NFL.
• Bengals RBs have not rushed for any TDs on 131 carries this season.
• The Bengals defense has allowed 195.7 rushing yards per game since Week 6 — highest in NFL
• The Bengals defense has allowed 7.8 yards after the catch this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 5.3
• The Ravens have won their last two games against the Bengals but neither was won by more than six points.
• The Ravens are averaging 31.4 PPG this season (most in NFL) but have averaged 35.8 PPG on the road.
• The Bengals have allowed an average of 26.2 PPG overall this season and allow an average of 31.3 PPG at home.
• The Bengals are averaging 15.5 PPG this season — fourth-fewest in NFL.
• The Ravens have allowed an average of 22 PPG this season.

The Ravens are flying about as high as they can go right now knocking off the previously-unbeaten Patriots last week in prime time. It’s hard to knock a QB who just took down Tom Brady, but Lamar Jackson still doesn’t look like a great QB. His rushing threat continues to give defenses problems though and the Ravens could sleepwalk to a win against the league’s last winless team this week. We saw these two teams face each other in Week 6 where the Ravens won 23-17. Lamar Jackson threw for 236 scoreless yards in the game but rushed for 152 yards with a rushing score as well. I don’t see this game being quite as close as the last one.

The Bengals are throwing in the towel on a lost season as they have opted to bench long-time starter Andy Dalton in favor of rookie fourth-round draft pick, Ryan Finley. The team traded up in the draft to select Finley, so it makes sense at this point that they want to see what they have in him. They’re really throwing him into the fire though with a daunting matchup against their first-place division rival Baltimore Ravens who have all the momentum in the world on their side. After looking like the team was going to finally get A.J. Green back as well, he was ruled out later in the week after suffering some sort of setback in his recovery from injury. For all the struggles the Bengals have had, it is worth noting that they have only given up more than 27 points in a game once this season and they did hold the Ravens to just 23 points when these teams met in Week 6.

My Final Prediction: Ravens win 30-10

My Pick: Ravens -10.5, Under 44

Machine Pick: Bengals +10.5, Under 44

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (-3)

Matchup Notes:

• Josh Allen has completed just 56.3% of passes since last season — 2nd lowest of 27 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 64.8%
• Josh Allen has thrown deep balls on 18.8% of pass attempts since last season — highest of 27 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 11.9%
• Devin Singletary has 8 rushes of 15+ yards this season — tied for 8th most among NFL RBs
• The Bills defense has tackled opponents for a loss on 112 of 623 rushing attempts (18.0% TFL%) since last season. — best in NFL; League Avg: 12.5%
• Baker Mayfield has a passer rating of just 71.3 this season — lowest of 27 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 92.8
• Jarvis Landry has dropped 14 balls since last season — tied for most among NFL WRs.
• Browns WRs have dropped 32 balls since last season — 2nd most in NFL.
• Browns WRs have caught 2 touchdown passes this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
• Nick Chubb has broken 41 tackles since last season — 5th most among NFL RBs.
• Myles Garrett (CLE) has 23.5 sacks since last season — 2nd most among NFL defensive linemen.
• The Browns defense has allowed 5 TD passes on plays where they have pressured the QB this season — most in NFL.
• The Bills are averaging 19.8 PPG this season.
• The Browns have allowed an average of 25.6 PPG overall this season and allow 31.7 PPG at home.
• The Browns are averaging 19 PPG this season.
• The Bills have allowed an average of 16.4 PPG overall this season (third-fewest in NFL) but just 12.3 PPG on the road.

The Bills continue their masquerade as a quality football team at 6-2 as a cupcake schedule has helped bring them here. Seriously though, five of their wins have come against the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Dolphins, and Redskins. Their sixth win they eeked out by a score of 14-7 against the Titans where neither team really put their best foot forward. They lost to the Patriots and impressively only gave up 16 points in that game, but whatever positive mark that left was somewhat erased when the Eagles put up 31 points against them in Week 8. To me, this is still an average football team at best, but their luck continues as they get ready to face the most disappointing team of the season so far, the Cleveland Browns.

I don’t want to kick the Browns while they’re down too much, because there has been plenty of that in the media already, but this is just not a good football team. Plain and simple. They’re in there somewhere, we saw that in Week 4 when they knocked off the Ravens 40-25. But we haven’t seen that team since. They have had the opposite luck as the Bills when it comes to their strength of schedule as they have faced plenty of tough opponents. They need a spark from Baker Mayfield to re-energize the offense and they have a great chance to salvage their season this week as they enter a three-game homestand that will see them host the Bills, Steelers, and Dolphins. All beatable teams if they don’t give the game up. They also face the Bengals twice over the back half of the season. We could be easily singing a different tune about them come Christmas. But first, they need to get passed the Bills this week.

My Final Prediction: Bills win 21-20

My Pick: Bills +3, Over 40

Machine Pick: Bills +3, Push O/U

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Tennessee Titans

Matchup Notes:

• Patrick Mahomes has averaged 225 passing yards per game in the 1st half this season — best of 32 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 122.2
• Tyreek Hill has gained 40+ yards on 4 of his 22 receptions (18.2%) this season — 2nd best of 74 qualified NFL WRs; League Avg: 3.9%
• Chiefs WRs have caught 15 touchdown passes this season — tied for most in NFL.
• The Chiefs defense has forced 13 fumbles this season — tied for most in NFL.
• Titans RBs have averaged 1.2 yards before contact per carry this season — 2nd lowest in NFL; League Avg: 2.1
• Derrick Henry has 10 rushes of 15+ yards this season — tied for 3rd most among NFL RBs.
• Jonnu Smith has averaged 10.7 yards per target this season — best of 39 qualified NFL TEs; League Avg: 7.6
• The Chiefs are averaging 28 PPG this season but have averaged 33 PPG on the road.
• The Titans have allowed an average of 18.3 PPG overall this season but have allowed 24.3 PPG over their last three games.
• The Titans are averaging 18.7 PPG overall this season but have averaged 23.3 PPG over their last three games.
• The Chiefs have allowed an average of 22.7 PPG overall this season but just 18 PPG on the road.

The Chiefs didn’t completely sink without Pat Mahomes under center as Matt Moore filled in valiantly, even handing Kirk Cousins and the Vikes a loss last week. With Mahomes expected to make his return this week, you have to like the Chiefs’ odds of winning this one pretty comfortably. The Chiefs have put up at least 24 points in eight-of-nine games this season while the Titans have been held to 24 points or less in seven-of-nine games played.

The Titans defense also has struggled over the last three weeks and after holding all six of their opponents to 20 points or less to start the season, they have no allowed at least 20 points in each of their last three games played. The Chiefs have also played well on the road this season having scored at least 28 points in all four road games and clearing 30 points in three of those. Mahomes should help fuel the fire that is already burning after the team’s big win last week while the Titans are still suffering some growing pains with Ryan Tannehill as the new man under center.

My Final Prediction: Chiefs win 28-20

My Pick: Chiefs -6.5, Push O/U

Machine Pick: Titans +6.5, Under 48

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-14)

Matchup Notes:

• Matt Ryan threw for 751 yards with seven TDs and one INT in two games combined against the Saints last season.
• Matt Ryan is 8-13 in his career against the Saints.
• Julio Jones has at least 96 receiving yards in each of his last five games against the Saints and 93 receiving yards or more in 10 of 15 games played against them. He only has three career TDs against them.
• Devonta Freeman has seven total TDs in eight games played against the Saints.
• Drew Brees threw for 567 yards with seven passing TDs and one INT along with two rushing TDs in two games combined against the Falcons last season.
• Drew Brees has thrown for over 300 yards in a game 17 times against the Falcons.
• Drew Brees is 18-9 in his career against the Falcons.
• Alvin Kamara has no TDs in four career games against the Falcons.
• Michael Thomas has gone over 100 receiving yards in three of six games against the Falcons, but all three were on the road. he hasn’t surpassed 71 yards against the Falcons at home in three games and has just one TD against them at home over that span which was in his rookie season (2016).
• The Saints have won their last three games against the Falcons.
• The Falcons have scored 20 points or less in three of their last four games against the Saints.
• The Falcons are averaging 20.6 PPG overall this season but have averaged 25.2 PPG on the road.
• The Saints have allowed an average of 19.5 PPG this season.
• The Saints are averaging 24.4 PPG this season.
• The Falcons have allowed an average of 31.2 PPG overall this season (third-most in NFL) and 35.5 PPG on the road (most in NFL).

One of the great division rivalries takes place again this week as the 1-7 Falcons will go up against the 7-1 Saints. This is the first meeting between these teams this season and both are well-rested coming off a Week 9 bye. It was the perfect time to get healthy for the Falcons QB Matt Ryan as he let Matt Schaub do all the heavy lifting in their last game. Ryan is expected to be back this week as the Falcons will look to get back in the win column for the first time since Week 2. The story for the Falcons all season has been about how their defense has gotten just absolutely shredded week in and week out. You can expect that to continue with Drew Brees back healthy and at home.

As the Falcons have lost six in a row, the Saints have won six in a row. Their defense stepped up in clutch situations while Brees was out and Teddy Bridgewater did a fine job managing the offense in his absence. Now with Brees back, you can expect the Saints to put the pedal to the metal and show no mercy against their division foe. Brees has crushed the Falcons in the past. The team could also be getting Alvin Kamara back healthy for this game who can be a game-changer in his own right. Strength against weakness is basically what we’re looking at here and although I see a fairly easy win for the Saints, I have a little bit of a hard time giving them double-digit points as the favorite in a divisional matchup.

My Final Prediction: Saints win 34-26

My Pick: Falcons +14, Over 51

Machine Pick: Saints -14, Over 51

New York Giants (-3) at New York Jets

Matchup Notes:

• The Giants have won five of their last six games against the Jets dating back to 1996.
• The Giants have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 19.4% of dropbacks this season — 3rd highest in NFL; League Avg: 14.0%
• The Giants have committed 22 turnovers this season — most in NFL.
• Daniel Jones has committed 8 turnovers on 96 plays (8.3% turnover percentage) when under pressure this season — 3rd highest of 33 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 4.6%
• The Giants defense has sacked opposing QBs on 13.8% of pass attempts in the red zone this season-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.7%
• Jets QBs have just 13 completions of 20+ yards since Week 1 — fewest in NFL. The Giants have allowed 35 completions of 20+ yards since Week 1 — tied for second-fewest in NFL.
• Jets RBs have averaged 6.8 yards after the catch this season — tied for 4th lowest in NFL; League Avg: 7.7
• The Jets have scored on 13.4% of their drives this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 35.7%
• The Giants are averaging 19.6 PPG this season.
• The Jets have allowed an average of 26.4 PPG this season.
• The Jets are averaging 12 PPG this season — fewest in NFL.
• The Giants have allowed an average of 28.3 PPG this season — fourth-most in NFL.

The Batlle for New York (or Jersey) looks more like two subway rats fighting over a piece of cheese this season with both the Giants and Jets failing to meet even the low expectations we had for them coming into the season. The Giants are saved from a last-place ranking right now thanks to them being in the same division as the Redskins while the Jets hit a new low last week after giving the Dolphins their first win of the season. Good thing Sam Darnold came back! Does anyone still think he’s a potential franchise QB going forward? No? Ok, good. 

I hate trying to make picks for games like this where you get two incapable offenses going up against two terrible defenses because the range of outcomes is basically anything. It could be just an ugly, low-scoring game, a complete shoot out, a lopsided win, you name it. The Giants offense has been better than the Jets, but the Giants defense has been so bad that it negates any positive ground to gain there. They have allowed opponents to go over 30 points five times this season and the only team they held under 27 points all season was the Redskins. Meanwhile, the Jets have only scored more than 18 points in a game once this season and it was in their random upset and only win of the season against the Cowboys in Week 6.

I want no part of this game as a bettor and would rather not even make a prediction at all to be perfectly honest, but for the sake of content and giving my best possible idea of what to expect from this game, I will.

My Final Prediction: Giants win 24-20

My Pick: Giants -3, Under 44.5

Machine Pick: Giants -3, Over 44.5

Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5)

Matchup Notes:

• Kyler Murray has not turned the ball over when pressured by the defense since Week 5. The Buccaneers have pressured opposing QBs on 8.6% of passing plays since Week 5 — third lowest in NFL.
• David Johnson has averaged 42.9 rushing yards per game this season — fifth lowest of qualified RBs. The Buccaneers have allowed an average of 55.1 rushing yards per game to RBs this season-best in NFL.
• Chandler Jones (ARI) has 8.5 sacks since Week 2 — most among NFL defensive linemen.
• The Cardinals defense has allowed 16 TD passes in the red zone this season — most in NFL.
• Jameis Winston has thrown 12 interceptions this season — tied for most among NFL QBs.
• Chris Godwin has 13 receptions for 20+ yards this season — tied for 2nd most among NFL WRs.
• Mike Evans has averaged 105.2 receiving yards per game this season — 2nd best of NFL WRs.
• The Buccaneers have committed 18 turnovers this season — tied for 2nd most in NFL.
• The Cardinals are averaging 21.7 PPG this season.
• The Buccaneers have allowed an average of 31.5 PPG this season — second-most in NFL.
• The Buccaneers are averaging 28.8 PPG this season — fourth-most in NFL.
• The Cardinals have allowed an average of 27.9 PPG this season — fifth-most in NFL.

The Cardinals are coming off a loss to be proud of (if that’s a thing) as they tried their best to keep pace with the unbeaten 49ers. They’ll now look to keep pace with the Bucs and their high-powered offense. This game has carried the highest over/under total of the week as both defenses have basically given their opponents whatever they want. The Cardinals have lost two in a row against very good teams in the Saints and 49ers. Rookie QB Kyler Murray has looked like a rookie, but he has a good shot at putting up a new season-high in passing yards this week. The Bucs have allowed at least 27 points to opponents in seven of eight games played this season. The Cards running game found success with new RB Kenyan Drake in the mix and he looks like he will be joined by David Johnson this week, but the Bucs have had one of the most impressive run-stopping defenses in the league. I think the Cards have a shot at keeping up here and it usually boils down to how much Jameis Winston turns it over when it comes to the Bucs winning and losing.

The Bucs are coming into this game having dropped four straight, but they came close last week as the forced the game into overtime against the Seahawks. They are also still looking for their first home win of the season after going 0-3 there to start the year. Despite getting Bruce Arians as their new head coach this season, it has basically been just more of the same for the Bucs. The offense can keep up with the most potent offenses in the league most weeks, but turnovers and a suspect secondary always become the difference-maker for them. Their run defense has been lights out, which is a pleasant surprise. The Bucs are always a hard team to bet on as the favorite because you just never know which version of Winston is going to show up and with their defense allowing so many points per game, things can get out of hand. 

My Final Prediction: Bucs win 33-30

My Pick: Cardinals +4.5, Over 52.5

Machine Pick: Bucs -4.5, Over 52.5

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-11.5)

Matchup Notes:

• Ryan Fitzpatrick has gained 65.3% of his total passing yards through the air when not under pressure this season — highest of 36 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 52.9%
• The Dolphins have rushed for 518 yards this season — 2nd fewest in NFL
• The Dolphins defense has hurried opposing QBs on 5.9% of dropbacks this season — tied for lowest in NFL; League Avg: 10.2%
• Marlon Mack has averaged 3.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (235 yards / 62 touches) since Week 6 — 4th lowest of 34 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 4.9
• Colts TEs have averaged 6.1 yards after the catch this season — tied for 2nd best in NFL; League Avg: 4.9
• Colts WRs have caught 12 touchdown passes this season — tied for 5th most in NFL.
• The Dolphins are averaging 12.9 PPG overall this season (third-fewest in NFL) but have averaged 20.3 PPG over their last three games.
• The Colts have allowed an average of 22.1 PPG this season.
• The Colts are averaging 22.8 PPG this season.
• The Dolphins have allowed an average of 32 PPG overall this season (most in NFL) but have allowed just 25.3 PPG over their last three games.

The Dolphins are no longer the worst team in the league after their win against the Jets last week. That honor now belongs to the Bengals. After getting pulverized to start the season, the Fins have started showing a little more signs of life as of late as they have held two of their last four opponents under 20 points. Those opponents were also the Redskins and the Jets, but it’s a small victory you’ll take if you’re a fan of this team. The team has lost some offensive weapons with Kenyan Drake traded away, Mark Walton being suspended four games, and now rookie WR Preston Williams was sent to IR. This team still has more the gain from losing over winning for the rest of the season and likely will have a hard time staying competitive against the Colts.

The Colts dropped a heartbreaker last week against the Steelers due to a missed Adam Vinatieri kick which also crushed bettors dreams as that kick would have forced a push on the one-point spread offered at most places. Instead, the Colts and anyone who bet on them (like me) lost. The bigger story here was QB Jacoby Brissett suffering a sprained MCL in the game. Despite playing against a weak Dolphins unit, it sounds like Brissett is trying to push through practice this week to get the start over veteran journeyman Brian Hoyer. Hoyer threw three TDs in relief last week and really isn’t too much of a downgrade here at QB over Brissett. He offers a little bit more of an aggressive playing style over Brissett, but that also comes with more risk as well as he doesn’t quite have the same ball security. The Colts are also looking to be without their top wideout, T.Y. Hilton once again in this matchup, making undrafted second-year wideout Zach Pascal their leading receiver. I still like the Colts to win this one and pretty easily, though heavy points against the Dolphins have become less of a sure thing as of late for betting purposes.  

My Final Prediction: Colts win 27-17

My Pick: Dolphins +11.5, Push O/U

Machine Pick: Dolphins +11.5, Under 44

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-5)

Matchup Notes:

• Christian McCaffrey has 5.2 yards per carry this season — fourth-best of qualified RBs. The Packers have allowed 4.9 yards per carry to RBs this season — tied for highest in NFL.
• Christian McCaffrey has averaged 3 yards before contact per carry on plays up the middle this season — 3rd best of 45 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 1.9
• Kyle Allen has committed 4 turnovers on 47 plays (8.5% turnover percentage) when under pressure this season — 2nd highest of 33 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 4.6%
• The Panthers defense has allowed a Completion Pct of 80.8% (21 completions/26 attempts) in the red zone this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 55.7%
• The Panthers defense has forced 19 turnovers this season — 3rd most in NFL.
• Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 2,324 passing yards this season — second-most in NFL. The Panthers have allowed just 1,506 passing yards this season — fourth-fewest in NFL.
• Aaron Jones has not rushed for 20+ yards on any of his 122 carries this season.
• Packers RBs have 9 rushing touchdowns this season — tied for third-most in NFL. The Panthers have allowed 12 rushing TDs this season — most in NFL.
• The Packers defense has forced 15 turnovers this season — tied for 4th most in NFL.
• The Panthers are averaging 26.1 PPG this season.
• The Packers have allowed an average of 21 PPG this season.
• The Packers are averaging 25.1 PPG this season.
• The Panthers have allowed an average of 25.5 PPG overall this season but have allowed 32.3 PPG over their last three games.

After getting obliterated by the 49ers in a 13-51 loss in Week 8, the Panthers got back on track last week against what has been a fairly sound Titans defense. The Panthers were back to putting up 30 points on the board as they have reached that total in half of their games played this season. With Cam Newton now moved to IR, Kyle Allen can feel a little more comfortable settling in as the starting QB. Christian McCaffrey continues to carry this offense as he is on pace to break records all over the place, including Chris Johnson’s single-season yards from scrimmage record. What is more impressive is that the run defenses he has faced have actually been pretty solid this season as well aside from the production they’ve allowed to him. He can easily carry his team to an upset this week against the Packers weak run defense that just brought Melvin Gordon back to life last week.

After winning four in a row, the Packers dropped a head-scratcher to a Chargers team who had just fired their offensive coordinator due to their struggles. That game has the feel of an outlier as it was one of the worst career performances from Aaron Rodgers who was sitting at just 61 passing yards through three-quarters of play. It was also surprising to see this performance from the team as they finally got elite wideout Davante Adams back for the game. I anticipate Rodgers and the Pack to get back on track at home in this one against a Panthers team who just gave up over 300 yards to Ryan Tannehill. They’ve also allowed over 300 yards in three of their last four games. The Packers need to gameplan for McCaffrey though or else he will run right through them.

My Final Prediction: Packers win 27-24

My Pick: Panthers +5, Over 47

Machine Pick: Panthers +5, Under 47

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup Notes:

• Rams RBs have been targeted 33 times this season — 2nd fewest in NFL.
• Rams RBs have 128 receiving yards this season — fewest in NFL.
• Cooper Kupp has averaged 99.5 yards from scrimmage per game this season — 3rd best among WRs.
• Robert Woods has averaged 6.6 yards after the catch this season — tied for fifth-best of qualified WRs. The Steelers have allowed 3.6 yards after catch per reception to WRs this season — tied for sixth-best in NFL.
• The Rams defense has allowed opponents to catch just 19 of 40 passes (47.5% Reception Pct) in the red zone this season — 2nd best in NFL; League Avg: 59.8%
• Mason Rudolph has gained 43.1% of his total passing yards through the air this season — lowest of 35 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 54.1%
• Steelers WRs have averaged just 6.7 yards per target this season — 4th lowest in NFL; League Avg: 8.2
• The Steelers defense has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 32 rushing attempts (6.2% TFL%) in the red zone this season — 3rd lowest in NFL; League Avg: 13.2%
• The Rams are averaging 26.8 PPG this season.
• The Steelers have allowed an average of 21.1 PPG this season.
• The Steelers are averaging 22 PPG overall this season and 25.8 PPG at home.
• The Rams have allowed an average of 21.8 PPG overall this season but just 13.3 PPG over their last three games.

As I had predicted heading into Week 7, the Rams won their last two games against the Falcons and the Bengals before heading into their bye last week. This hopefully gave them ample time to gameplan for the back half of the season here as they just haven’t looked like the same dominant team we saw last year. Their three-game skid earlier in the season that saw them lose to the Bucs, Seahawks, and 49ers was a really telling sign of the struggles that they’re encountering this year. While the Steelers are also nothing like the teams we have seen from them in the past, they have won three straight games with two of those wins coming against competitive teams like the Chargers and Colts. Their scoring has also been incredibly consistent this season as they have scored somewhere between 20-27 points in every game since Week 2. I still like the Rams to come away with the win here, but you just can’t be confident in them this season. 

My Final Prediction: Rams win 21-20

My Pick: Steelers +3.5, Under 44

Machine Pick: Steelers +3.5, Over 44

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Matchup Notes:

• Kirk Cousins has averaged 9.3 yards per attempt this season-best of qualified QBs. The Cowboys have allowed 6.4 yards per attempt this season — eighth-best in NFL.
• Vikings RBs have rushed for 1,295 yards this season — most in NFL.
• Vikings RBs have averaged 2.5 yards before contact per carry this season — tied for 4th best in NFL
• The Vikings defense has allowed 223 completions this season — 4th most in NFL
• The Vikings have gone three and out on 27.8% of their drives in close and late situations this season — tied for 2nd highest in NFL; League Avg: 16.7%
• Dak Prescott has completed 74.8% of passes when not under pressure this season — 2nd best of 27 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 69.3%
• Ezekiel Elliott has averaged 26.2 touches per game at home this season — 2nd highest of 51 qualified NFL RBs
• Amari Cooper has 12 receptions for 20+ yards this season — tied for 5th most among NFL WRs
• The Cowboys have converted first downs on 177 of 522 plays (33.9%) this season-best in NFL; League Avg: 28.8%
• The Vikings are averaging 26 PPG this season.
• The Cowboys have allowed an average of 17.8 PPG this season — fifth-fewest in NFL.
• The Cowboys are averaging 28.4 PPG this season — fifth-most in NFL.
• The Vikings have allowed an average of 17.6 PPG this season — fourth-fewest in NFL.

After winning four games in a row, the Vikes lost a disappointing game against the Chiefs sans Mahomes. Their running game couldn’t find the normal success that they’ve found this season as they were held to their second-lowest rushing total of the season as a team and their 308 total yards on offense was their lowest total since Week 4. This actually marks two games in a row where the Vikes just haven’t quite lived up to expectations as they only put up 19 points against the Redskins the week before.

The Cowboys gave us a scare early in the game last week as it looked like they were going to struggle to beat the Giants. They got going eventually though and put up 37 points for the second game in a row. The Cowboys have now won two big games in a row against division rivals as they get ready to host a Vikings team that has been up and down all season. This should be a great game to watch though I don’t really feel comfortable putting money on either side as I wouldn’t be surprised to see either team walk away with the win.

My Final Prediction: Cowboys win 26-24

My Pick: Vikings +3, Over 48

Machine Pick: Vikings +3, Under 48

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

Matchup Notes:

• Russell Wilson is 11-3 against the 49ers in his career with a 23-8 TD/INT ratio. He has thrown for no more than 260 yards in a game against them and thrown for under 200 yards in half his games against them.
• Russell Wilson has completed 68.4% of passes this season — seventh-best of qualified QBs. The 49ers have allowed a completion rate of 54.5% this season — second-best in NFL.
• The Seahawks have thrown the ball 49.8% of the time this season — 4th lowest in NFL; League Avg: 54.9%
• Tyler Lockett has 10 receptions in the red zone this season — 2nd most among NFL WRs.
• Chris Carson has averaged 1.2 yards before contact per carry this season — tied for lowest of 33 qualified NFL RBs
• George Kittle has gained 233 yards after the catch this season — fourth-most of qualified TEs. The Seahawks have allowed 340 yards after the catch to TEs this season — most in NFL.
• 49ers RBs have 11 rushing touchdowns this season — most in NFL. The Seahawks have allowed 7 rushing TDs to RBs this season — tied for fifth-most in NFL.
• The 49ers defense has blitzed on just 9.7% of plays this season — 3rd lowest in NFL; League Avg: 17.1%.
• The 49ers defense has hurried opposing QBs on 14.8% of dropbacks this season — 2nd best in NFL; League Avg: 10.2%
• The 49ers have lost 10 of their last 12 games against the Seahawks including playoffs.
• The Seahawks are averaging 27.6 PPG this season.
• The 49ers have allowed an average of just 12.8 PPG this season — second-fewest in NFL.
• The 49ers are averaging 29.4 PPG overall this season (third-most in NFL) and 35.3 PPG at home (most in NFL).
• The Seahawks have allowed an average of 25.6 PPG this season but just 21 PPG on the road.

We get a classic division rivalry to wrap up our action in Week 10 with the second-place Seahawks facing the last unbeaten team in the league, the 49ers. The Seahawks have won two in a row, but needed overtime to put away the Bucs last week. Russell Wilson has continued to play at an MVP caliber level and helped pull his team through while the defense hasn’t really done their part. They’ve allowed at least 28 points in four of their last five games. They have, however, been solid against the run this season as they have only allowed three teams to go over 100 rushing yards against them. This week will be a true test against the 49ers potent ground attack.

The Niners have easily been the most-improved and most-impressive team in the NFL this season. They did the trade deadline right by bringing in veteran wideout Emmanuel Sanders to boost a struggling passing game and his presence has been immediately felt. After leaning almost entirely on the running game to get things done on offense all season, Jimmy Garoppolo showed up for 317 yards and four TDs against the Cardinals last week. The glaring weakness in the Seahawks defense has been their vulnerability against the passing game, especially lately as even Matt Schaub was able to light them up in Week 8. This should be a playoff-caliber matchup this week.

My Final Prediction: 49ers win 33-28

My Pick: Seahawks +6.5, Over 47

Machine Pick: Seahawks +6.5, Under 47