Advanced Fantasy Metrics: True Catch Rate
Like the fantasy football season, the NFL campaign has now moved into the second half of the schedule. These are the crucial ‘must-win’ weeks for playoff contenders and there are now enough advanced metrics and data available to disregard anomalies and confirm trends.
One of those interesting metrics we’ve been tracking is FantasyData’s True Catch Rate, which eliminates un-catchable passes and throwaways to gain a truer measure of which wide receivers are showcasing the best hands by catching the highest rate of targets. Conversely, we can also track which wideouts are committing the most drops and doing a poor job hauling in catchable targets.
With now nine weeks worth of data in the books, here are the wide receivers that have done the worst job catching the ball and which wideouts have displayed the best hands via the Week 10 True Catch Rate leaderboard.
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The League’s Least Efficient Receivers
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM | TGTS | REC | YDS | TD | CUSHION | TGT SEP. | TRUE CATCH RATE | CONTEST TGT | CONTEST REC | CONTEST% | YDS/REC | YDS/TGT | YDS/ROUTE | DROP | DROP% |
| 1 | Chris Conley | JAX | 47 | 23 | 461 | 2 | 4.35 | 1.14 | 60.5 % | 12 | 3 | 25.0 % | 20 | 9.8 | 1.83 | 5 | 10.6 % |
| 2 | John Ross | CIN | 32 | 16 | 328 | 3 | 4.23 | 1.66 | 64.0 % | 4 | 1 | 25.0 % | 20.5 | 10.2 | 2.54 | 5 | 15.6 % |
| 3 | Darius Slayton | NYG | 31 | 17 | 273 | 3 | 3.62 | 1.15 | 68.0 % | 7 | 3 | 42.9 % | 16.1 | 8.8 | 1.4 | 5 | 16.1 % |
| 4 | D.K. Metcalf | SEA | 54 | 29 | 525 | 5 | 4.35 | 1.33 | 69.0 % | 12 | 6 | 50.0 % | 18.1 | 9.7 | 2.19 | 3 | 5.6 % |
| 5 | Mike Williams | LAC | 54 | 29 | 530 | 0 | 3.3 | 0.95 | 70.7 % | 13 | 2 | 15.4 % | 18.3 | 9.8 | 2.05 | 5 | 9.3 % |
| 6 | Preston Williams | MIA | 60 | 32 | 428 | 3 | 4.09 | 1.2 | 72.7 % | 21 | 10 | 47.6 % | 13.4 | 7.1 | 1.87 | 5 | 8.3 % |
| 6 | Dede Westbrook | JAX | 55 | 32 | 383 | 1 | 4.23 | 1.54 | 72.7 % | 11 | 2 | 18.2 % | 12 | 7 | 1.75 | 4 | 7.3 % |
| 8 | DeVante Parker | MIA | 52 | 28 | 400 | 4 | 5.05 | 1.38 | 73.7 % | 15 | 8 | 53.3 % | 14.3 | 7.7 | 1.56 | 4 | 7.7 % |
| 9 | Josh Gordon | SEA | 36 | 20 | 287 | 1 | 3.74 | 2.39 | 74.1 % | 9 | 4 | 44.4 % | 14.3 | 8 | 1.54 | 2 | 5.6 % |
| 10 | Demarcus Robinson | KC | 40 | 23 | 323 | 3 | 3.62 | 1.75 | 74.2 % | 5 | 3 | 60.0 % | 14 | 8.1 | 1.31 | 4 | 10.0 % |
Chris Conley drew seven targets for the third consecutive week but had his worst outing, catching just two of those targets for 32 yards and committing his fifth drop. Conley’s True Catch Rate score dropped 4.9%, which cemented his place as the league’s least efficient wide receiver for another week. The Jaguars happen to have Week 10 off, so there’s a good chance that Conley will remain in last place for another week and teammate Dede Westbrook, who sat out Week 9, will stay in sixth. Leading the Jaguars’ receiving corps in snaps, throwing to Conely has been an up-and-down proposition for Gardner Minshew. We’ll see if things improve with Nick Foles back under center versus the Colts in two weeks.
Another reserve wideout is leading his group in snaps. New York’s Darius Slayton has played 355 snaps for the Giants but been awfully inefficient with the playing time. After catching just 1-of-4 targets against the Cowboys, Slayton has only caught 17-of-25 catchable targets on the season and committed five drops. That gives Slayton an awful 16.1% drop rate, which is the highest in the entire league.
Drops haven’t been as much of an issue for D.K. Metcalf, who is actually having a solid rookie campaign. Metcalf’s five touchdowns are tied for ninth among all wideouts and the rookie is averaging a healthy 18.1 yards per catch. He’s only caught half of his dozen contested-catch targets but the true takeaway here is that Metcalf has been good but could be much better if he were more effective at using his size and athleticism to shield off defenders. Once he starts to learn how to command the field, the sky is the limit.
Like Metcalf, Mike Williams is a sizable deep threat who has plenty of room to grow. But unlike Metcalf, Williams has yet to produce a touchdown and it’s easier to pinpoint where those struggles have been. Williams has only caught 2-of-13 contested-targets after dominating in this area last season. Press coverage has been a huge problem for Williams, who ranks next-to-last among all wideouts with an average of 0.95 yards of separation. After scoring 10 TDs in his sophomore season, some positive touchdown regression can be expected in the second half but Williams has to help himself get open and come down with those targets.
The Dolphins have a pair of wideouts in the bottom-10 with undrafted rookie free agent Preston Williams and annual disappointment DeVante Parker struggling along with the rest of the squad. Williams (knee) is now lost for the season which should mean even more targets are in-line for Parker, who is now the unquestioned No. 1 receiver. Parker has now scored in four out of Miami’s last five contests and continues to improve his TCR score. Parker is a worthy waiver wire add who offers WR3 value moving forward.
If you haven’t already cut Demarcus Robinson from your fantasy roster, now would be a good time to do so. After an impressive two-week run in September, Robinson has been highly ineffective and completely unusable in fantasy lineups. Robinson has produced six or fewer receiving yards in three of his last four games and hasn’t topped 35 yards since Week 3. While things should improve once Patrick Mahomes is back under center, Robinson is far too inconsistent to be trusted in starting lineups.
True Catch Rate Leaders
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM | TGTS | REC | YDS | TD | CUSHION | TGT SEP. | TRUE CATCH RATE | CONTEST TGT | CONTEST REC | CONTEST% | YDS/REC | YDS/TGT | YDS/ROUTE | DROP | DROP% |
| 1 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARZ | 63 | 42 | 485 | 2 | 3.65 | 1.01 | 95.5 % | 8 | 3 | 37.5 % | 11.5 | 7.7 | 2.06 | 1 | 1.6 % |
| 2 | Michael Thomas | NO | 89 | 73 | 875 | 4 | 4.19 | 1.4 | 94.8 % | 11 | 9 | 81.8 % | 12 | 9.8 | 3.27 | 2 | 2.2 % |
| 3 | Chris Godwin | TB | 71 | 54 | 766 | 6 | 4.29 | 1.45 | 94.7 % | 14 | 11 | 78.6 % | 14.2 | 10.8 | 2.67 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 4 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 92 | 68 | 665 | 4 | 3.86 | 1.12 | 93.2 % | 19 | 10 | 52.6 % | 9.8 | 7.2 | 2.28 | 4 | 4.3 % |
| 5 | Cooper Kupp | LAR | 87 | 58 | 793 | 5 | 4.03 | 1.64 | 92.1 % | 9 | 3 | 33.3 % | 13.7 | 9.1 | 2.88 | 4 | 4.6 % |
| 6 | Kenny Stills | HOU | 28 | 22 | 367 | 1 | 3.61 | 1.02 | 91.7 % | 3 | 2 | 66.7 % | 16.7 | 13.1 | 2.68 | 2 | 7.1 % |
| 7 | Jamison Crowder | NYJ | 59 | 43 | 405 | 1 | 4.26 | 1.45 | 91.5 % | 5 | 3 | 60.0 % | 9.4 | 6.9 | 1.86 | 1 | 1.7 % |
| 8 | Emmanuel Sanders | SF | 57 | 41 | 504 | 4 | 4.55 | 1.72 | 91.1 % | 5 | 3 | 60.0 % | 12.3 | 8.8 | 2.08 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 9 | Tyler Lockett | SEA | 72 | 59 | 767 | 6 | 3.75 | 2.06 | 90.8 % | 8 | 4 | 50.0 % | 13 | 10.7 | 2.81 | 2 | 2.8 % |
| 10 | Brandin Cooks | LAR | 45 | 27 | 402 | 1 | 4.26 | 1.39 | 90.0 % | 7 | 4 | 57.1 % | 14.9 | 8.9 | 1.67 | 3 | 6.7 % |
No real surprise to see Chicago’s anemic offense be unable to keep a player in the top spot, so trusty veteran Larry Fitzgerald takes over as the True Catch Rate leader after nine weeks. Fitzgerald has only dropped one pass all season and managed to improve his score somewhat after corralling all four of his targets against a stingy San Francisco defense. Fitzgerald hasn’t topped 50 yards in three weeks or scored since Week 3 but he’s got an excellent Week 10 matchup against a Tampa Bay squad that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
DeAndre Hopkins topped double-digit targets for the fourth consecutive game but only managed to accumulate 48 receiving yards. Hopkins somewhat salvaged his Week 9 fantasy value with his fourth TD grab but he’s now dipped down to just 9.8 yards per catch on the season, which is nearly four full yards lower than he averaged just one year ago. The Texans are off in Week 10 and will emerge from the bye with a somewhat difficult schedule in Baltimore, and then three straight home games against the Colts, Patriots, and Broncos. This could lead to somewhat muted numbers out of Hopkins and Kenny Stills, who ranks sixth with a 91.7% True Catch Rate.
After a Week 9 bye, the Rams return to action this week against a very average Pittsburgh Steelers secondary. With 75% of his snaps coming out of the slot, Cooper Kupp and his excellent 92.1% True Catch Rate face a decent matchup against slot corner Mike Hilton. Teammate Brandin Cooks ranks 10th with a 90% TCR but Cooks is suffering ill-effects from a concussion and there is no current timetable for his return to the lineup. This assures more slot reps for Kupp and a bigger share of snaps and targets for Josh Reynolds.
Predictably, Jamison Crowder sliced-and-diced his way through a moribund Miami secondary to post an 8/83/1 line on nine targets. This week, Crowder looks like he has an even better matchup against a New York Giants’ defense that has really struggled against slot receivers in 2019. Overall, the Giants have allowed the third-most fantasy points to wideouts and only the Dolphins have surrendered more touchdowns to the position.
Along with Chris Godwin, Emmanuel Sanders is the only other wide receiver to have not be credited with a drop while ranking in the top-10 of True Catch Rate. Sanders has been particularly effective since being acquired by the 49ers, scoring in both contests while catching 11-of-14 targets for 137 yards. In Week 10, San Francisco hosts a Seattle defense that has allowed a 100-plus yard receiving game to four of the past five No. 1 wide receivers they’ve faced.
Tyler Lockett enters Week 10 as the No. 3 fantasy wideout in PPR formats. Lockett flashed this elite upside last season and enters Week 10 on a hot streak, having absorbed 19-of-24 targets for 254 yards and two touchdowns in the past two games. Lockett was a True Catch Rate standout last year, so his breakout is not a surprise among those of us in the analytics community. However, Week 10 presents a tough challenge to Russell Wilson and the rest of Seattle’s offense as they travel to San Francisco to face an elite 49ers stop unit.
