NFL Pick’em: Week 13

NFL Pick'em: Week 13

For this article, we dig through every game of the Sunday slate to provide the top matchup notes worth knowing with a brief overview and picks for each game. Betting trends are found thanks to Team Rankings with some advanced matchup strength vs. weakness notes provided by Inside Edge. Let’s get to the action for NFL Pick’em Week 13.

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Las Vegas Raiders (-7.5) at New York Jets (O/U 47)

The Raiders are averaging 26.5 PPG this season.
The Jets have allowed 29.3 PPG this season.
The Jets are averaging 13.8 PPG this season — worst in the NFL.
The Raiders have allowed 29 PPG this season.
The Raiders are 7-4 ATS this season — tied for third-best in the NFL.
The Jets are 3-8 ATS this season — second-worst in the NFL.
The OVER is 7-3-1 for the Raiders this season — tied for third-most.
The home team has won each of the last six games between these teams and is 9-1 over their last 10 meetings.
Vegas has an implied total of 27.2-19.8 in favor of the Raiders.
The public likes the Raiders to win and cover with the under hitting.

You gotta love the volatility of betting on the NFL. The Raiders beat the Chiefs earlier this season, then nearly beat them again in Week 11. They show up to Week 12 playing a Falcons team with just three wins under their belt and get demolished 43-6. Luckily, they’re offered a get-right matchup this week against the only winless team in the NFL.

The Jets remained the most consistent team in the NFL, losing 20-3 against the Dolphins last week. They had recently shown some life against the Patriots and Chargers the weeks before but fell flat on their faces once again.

We unsurprisingly see the stats favor the Raiders in virtually every positive category here. Things get a lot closer when comparing defensive stats as neither team has been great there all season. The Jets actually have a slight edge in allowing a lower third-down conversion rate and lower red zone scoring percentage to their opponents than the Raiders do. However, it’s likely not enough to keep them in this game, but it could be enough to help them cover the spread as they have in two of their last three games. Even so, it’s still not a bet worth making.

Final Prediction: Raiders win 27-17

Picks: Raiders -7.5, Under 47

Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) (O/U 52.5)

The Jaguars are averaging 20.6 PPG overall this season (fifth-fewest) and 16 PPG over their last three games.
The Vikings have allowed 27.7 PPG overall this season and 32 PPG at home.
The Vikings are averaging 26.5 PPG this season.
The Jaguars have allowed 29.5 PPG this season — third-most in the NFL.
The OVER is 8-3 for the Vikings this season — second-most in the NFL.
The Vikings are 5-1 straight-up against the Jaguars dating back to 1998.
Vegas has an implied total of 31.5-21 in favor of the Vikings.
The public likes the Vikings to win, but the Jags to cover with the under hitting.

The Vikings are at home for the third-straight week and are coming off a narrow one-point victory against the Panthers. They have won four of their last five games. Their only loss during that span was a head-scratching disappointment against the Cowboys, but they still managed to put up 28 points in that game.

The Jaguars extended their losing streak to 10 games last week with their two-point loss to the Browns. Despite their losing ways, they’ve put up at least 20 points in four of their last five games.

When comparing stats, the Vikings have the edge in virtually every category on both offense and defense. This includes the key categories of both third-down conversion rate and red-zone scoring percentage. The Jags have given up an average of 415.6 total yards of offense to their opponents this season and will have a tough time stopping the Vikes. The Jags have still been able to put some points on the board most weeks, though, which makes me see why the public likes them to cover such a large spread.

Final Prediction: Vikings win 28-20

Picks: Jaguars +10.5, Under 52.5

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3) (O/U 45)

The Lions are averaging 22.9 PPG overall this season but just 18.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Bears have allowed 22.7 PPG overall this season, 25.7 PPG on the road, and 28 PPG over their last three games.
The Bears are averaging 19.6 PPG this season — fourth-fewest in the NFL.
The Lions have allowed 29.8 PPG this season — second-most in the NFL.
The Bears have won each of their last five games against the Lions and are 4-1 ATS during that span.
Vegas has an implied total of 24-21 in favor of the Bears.
The public is split on a winner straight-up but likes the Lions to cover and the under to hit.

The Lions were the latest team to boot their head coach as Matt Patricia was let go after the team’s blowout loss to the Texans on Thanksgiving. They’ve lost four of their last five games and lost to this very Bears team back in Week 1, 23-27. There has been somewhat of a trend with teams cutting their head coach and getting a boost in value after, like the Texans did.

The Bears made the switch back to Mitchell Trubisky last week at QB and saw their team put up 25 points against the Packers. Unfortunately, they let the Packers score 41 points in the contest. Still, 25 points were the most the Bears have managed in a game since Week 3 and sadly their third-highest scoring game of the season.

The Bears have had their way with the Lions as of late, beating them in each of their last five matchups. The Lions have the better offense here on paper. They’ve scored more points per game and have been more efficient than the Bears on third downs and in the red zone. The Bears still boast the better defense by a longshot as the Lions have given up almost 30 PPG to their opponents this season.

This game has the looks of a slow-motion, back and forth battle where we could see more turnovers than touchdowns. Neither team gives you much confidence, but I bet the Lions find a way to lose again despite ousting Patricia.

Final Prediction: Bears win 24-20

Picks: Bears -3, Under 45

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons (O/U 45)

The Saints are averaging 29.6 PPG this season — fourth-most in the NFL.
The Falcons have allowed 25.5 PPG overall this season but just 19 PPG over their last three games.
The Falcons are averaging 26.8 PPG this season.
The Saints have allowed 20.5 PPG overall this season but just 8.3 PPG over their last three games.
The OVER is 7-4 for the Saints this season.
The UNDER has hit in each of the last four games between these teams.
The Saints are 5-1 straight-up and ATS in their last six games against the Falcons.
The winner straight-up has also covered the spread in each of the last seven games between these teams.
Vegas has an implied total of 23.8-21.2 in favor of the Saints.
The public likes the Saints to win and cover with the over hitting.

We just saw these teams face each other two weeks ago in New Orleans, where the Saints won 24-9. The Saints’ defense demolished the Falcons in that game as they have done to everyone lately. They have won eight-straight games and allowed just one TD over their last four games. Pretty crazy hot streak and just in time, considering they’re without Drew Brees. Taysom Hill hasn’t been conventional under center, but he’s doing enough.

The Falcons recovered from that blowout loss against the Saints by blowing out the Raiders 43-6 last week. If the Falcons can beat the Raiders, and the Raiders can beat the Chiefs, ipso facto, the Falcons can win the Super Bowl, right?

On paper, this is a back and forth matchup when comparing offenses. The Saints have scored more points per game, but the Falcons rank higher in total yards and have run the fourth-most plays in the league this season. The Falcons have often given their games away on defense and have allowed the second-most passing yards this season. Surprisingly, they have allowed a lower third-down conversion rate and lower red-zone scoring percentage to their opponents than the Saints have.

The recent sample between these two teams is hard to overlook, especially looking at how the Saints defense has performed. I really don’t see things going much better this week.

Final Prediction: Saints win 21-17

Picks: Saints -2.5, Under 45

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (-11.5) (O/U 42.5)

The Bengals are averaging 20.9 PPG overall this season but just 12 PPG over their last three games.
The Dolphins have allowed 18.6 PPG overall this season (second-fewest) and just 14.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Dolphins are averaging 25.8 PPG overall this season but just 20.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Bengals have allowed 26.3 PPG this season.
The UNDER is 7-4 for the Dolphins this season.
The Dolphins are 8-3 ATS this season — tied for best in the NFL.
The Bengals are 7-4 ATS this season — tied for second-most in the NFL.
The home team has won each of the last four matchups between these teams.
The winner straight-up has also covered the spread in each of the last seven games between these teams.
Vegas has an implied total of 27-15.5 in favor of the Dolphins.
The public likes the Dolphins to win and cover with the under hitting.

The Bengals are trying to figure things out without the first overall pick Joe Burrow under center. They kept things close against the Giants last week but ultimately picked up their third-straight loss, 17-19. Sadly and despite losing, 17 points is the most they’ve scored in a game in their last three matchups.

The Dolphins made quick work of the Jets for the second time this season, beating them 20-3 last week. Their defense continues to drive this team despite their QB tandem of Tua Tagovailoa and Ryan Fitzpatrick getting most of the press. No matter the QB, the team has won six of their last seven games, with a loss to the Broncos being their only recent blip on the radar.

Comparing offenses is misleading here with the new QB situation for the Bengals. The clear indicator of success is how strong the Dolphin’s defense has been, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bengals kept out of the end zone the entire game and get no more than a couple of field goals.

Final Prediction: Dolphins win 27-13

Picks: Dolphins -11.5, Under 42.5

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Houston Texans (O/U 51)

The Colts are averaging 27.5 PPG overall this season and 31.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Texans have allowed 27 PPG overall this season and just 18.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Texans are averaging 24.4 PPG this season.
The Colts have allowed 23 PPG overall this season and 31 PPG over their last three games.
The Colts are 5-2 straight-up in their last seven games against the Texans.
The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the Texans.
The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight games between these teams.
Vegas has an implied total of 27.2-23.8 in favor of the Colts.
The public likes the Colts to win and cover with the under hitting.

The Texans continue to play strong in the post-Bill O’Brien era. They obliterated the Lions on Thanksgiving 41-25 in a game that looked like classic Thanksgiving backyard ball. They have now won three of their last four games, with the only loss in that span coming against the Browns in just dreadful playing conditions.

The Colts have been all over the place this season. Their defense had been one of the best in the league earlier in the season but got tossed around by the Titans last week, losing 45-26. They haven’t lost in back-to-back games yet this season and have had success against the Texans as of late.

When comparing offenses, things are pretty close all-around. The Colts have put up more points and total yards per game. The Texans have had a stronger passing game but just lost deep threat, Will Fuller, to a PED suspension and Randall Cobb to IR. Their running game has barely been there this season, but they may get David Johnson back this week.

The Colts’ defense has been the better of the two this season, but as mentioned, it has been inconsistent as of late. Division games tend to play close, and this one looks that way as well. I think the losses the Texans have suffered on offense could cause some problems this week.

Final Prediction: Colts win 27-24

Picks: Texans +3.5, Over 51

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-6) (O/U 53.5)

The Browns are averaging 24.1 PPG overall this season but just 19.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Titans have allowed 25.9 PPG this season.
The Titans are averaging 29.5 PPG this season.
The Browns have allowed 26 PPG overall this season but just 16.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Titans have won each of their last three games against the Browns.
The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 games between these teams.
The combined total has never been set over 50 points in a matchup between these teams.
Vegas has an implied total of 29.8-23.8 in favor of the Titans.
The public likes the Titans to win and cover with the under hitting.

The Browns picked up their third-straight win last week, beating the Jaguars 27-25. They’ve had some easy matchups the last two weeks between the Jags and Eagles but haven’t beat either team by more than one score. Their running game is as potent as ever right now with the return of Nick Chubb, which has done enough to carry the offense.

The Titans are now in first place in the AFC South and are starting to look more like the team that drove a playoff push last season. Derrick Henry beasted out and carried the team to a 45-26 victory against the Colts. This gave the Titans back-to-back wins against solid opponents.

The Titans boast the better overall offense on paper, but both running games are amongst the best in the league. The Titans have also been more efficient on third downs and in the red zone this season.

On defense, we see the Browns take advantage. They have allowed fewer total yards per game to opponents this season. They have also been more stingy on third downs and have allowed opponents to score on 59.1% of red-zone drives compared to 72.1% for the Titans.

This is a battle of the backs. The Browns boast two amazing talents in their backfield, while the Titans have arguably the best pure runner in the league. The upside that the Titans passing game offers is enough to put them over the edge for me, but I think this is close enough to see the Browns cover.

Final Prediction: Titans win 27-24

Picks: Browns +6, Under 53.5

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-10) (O/U 47.5)

The Giants are averaging 19.5 PPG overall this season (third-fewest) and 23 PPG over their last three games.
The Seahawks have allowed 27.6 PPG overall this season but just 20.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Seahawks are averaging 31 PPG overall this season (third-most) but 22.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Giants have allowed 23 PPG overall this season and just 18 PPG over their last three games.
The Seahawks have won and covered in each of their last four games against the Giants.
The Giants are 7-4 ATS this season — tied for second-most in the NFL.
The UNDER is 8-3 for the Giants this season — tied for most in the NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 28.8-18.8 in favor of the Seahawks.
The public likes the Seahawks to win and cover but is split on the over/under.

We have seen this line move from Seattle -7.5 to Seattle -10 in a matter of two days, given the uncertainty of QB Daniel Jones. Reports indicate that Jones avoided a major injury, but his status is still one to watch leading up to kickoff.

The Giants are the best team in the NFC East, which is not saying much. Their win against the Bengals last week was their first win outside of their division this season, and they were barely able to pick it up against the team’s backup QB. While they haven’t been overly impressive this season, they have played better than expected, which is evident in their solid ATS record and the fact that their defense quietly ranks inside the top 10 when it comes to points allowed to opponents. That’s more than the Seahawks can say who have seen their defense get shredded at times this season. Seattle has picked up back-to-back wins against the Cardinals and Eagles and sits in first place in the heated NFC West.

On paper, the Seahawks have a clear advantage on offense here. The Giants have been one of the worst in the league all season. They rank bottom five in points and total yards and have converted red-zone drives into a score just 46.7% of the time. Surprisingly, they have been better than the Seahawks on third down, converting 41.1% of the time compared to a dreadful 39.5% mark by Seattle. The Giants have been better in most regards on defense, including boasting a lower third-down conversion rate and red-zone scoring percentage to opponents.

Daniel Jones optimists should put money on the Giants +10 right now. He’s a turnover machine, but they could stay within 10 points of the Seahawks with help from their defense. Without Jones, it probably won’t be pretty.

Final Prediction: Seahawks win 26-20

Picks: Giants +10, Under 47.5

LA Rams (-3) at Arizona Cardinals (O/U 48)

The Rams are averaging 23.9 PPG this season.
The Cardinals have allowed 23.5 PPG overall this season and 27.8 PPG at home.
The Cardinals are averaging 27.6 PPG overall this season and 23.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Rams have allowed 19.5 PPG overall this season and 23.3 PPG on the road.
The Rams are 6-0 straight-up in their last six games against the Cardinals and 5-0-1 ATS during that span.
The Cardinals haven’t beaten the Rams at home since 11/09/14.
The UNDER is 8-3 for both teams this season — tied for most in the NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 25.5-22.5 in favor of the Rams.
The public likes the Cardinals to win and cover with the over hitting.

This should be a solid matchup between two division rivals fighting for placement behind the Seahawks in the NFC West. The Rams dropped a heartbreaker against the 49ers last week 20-23. This came on the heels of back-to-back impressive wins against the Bucs and Seahawks. Overall, the Rams have been much improved this season, especially on defense. They still have limitations in the passing game with Jared Goff under center.

The Cardinals are trying to right the ship coming off back-to-back losses against the Seahawks and Patriots. They have lost their last five home games against the Rams and haven’t found success against them in the last three years. They’re hoping to break that trend this week, but their recent form suggests otherwise.

When comparing stats, we see a lot of back and forth offensively. The Cardinals have scored more points and average more total yards per game. The Rams have been more efficient at converting third downs while the Cardinals have been more efficient in the red zone.

On defense, the Rams have a greater advantage. They have been one of the best units all season and have allowed far fewer points and yards to their opponents than the Cardinals this season. Arizona has a slight advantage when it comes to the opponent’s red-zone scoring percentage.

We have seen the under hit a lot for both of these teams this season, but the Cards allow more PPG at home while the Rams also allow more PPG on the road. Each of the last three home games for the Cardinals has cleared 60 points combined, and only one of their home games this season hasn’t cleared the set total here of 48 points. This is all enough for me to like the over, but I think the Ram’s trends of winning against Arizona continue.

Final Prediction: Rams win 27-26

Picks: Cardinals +3, Over 48

New England Patriots at LA Chargers (O/U 47.5)

The Patriots are averaging 20.8 PPG this season.
The Chargers have allowed 27.3 PPG this season.
The Chargers are averaging 25.2 PPG this season.
The Patriots have allowed 23.2 PPG overall this season and 27.8 PPG on the road.
The Patriots are 5-0 straight-up and ATS in their last five games against the Chargers.
The Chargers haven’t beaten the Patriots at home since 10/12/08.
The OVER is 7-4 for the Chargers this season.
The UNDER is 7-4 for the Patriots this season.
Vegas has an implied total of 23.8-23.8 as a true pick’em.
The public likes the Patriots to win and cover with the under hitting.

The Patriots snuck in a win against the Cardinals last week and have now won three of their last four games. This week, they hit the road where they have shown a lot of struggles this season. The only team they’ve beaten on the road was the Jets, and even that win required the luck of a last-minute 50+ yard field goal to seal the deal.

The Chargers lost to Buffalo by 10 points last week, bringing their record to 3-8. Justin Herbert remains a top candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year, but when you boil it down, the team has beaten the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets this season. That’s it. Not exactly a laundry list of impressive feats.

When comparing offensive stats, the Chargers hold a distinct advantage. They’ve scored more points and put up more total yards per game. They’ve also run about 10 plays per game more than the Pats this season. The Chargers have also been more efficient both on third down and in the red zone.

We see a mixed bag when comparing these defenses. The Chargers have allowed more points per game but also allow fewer total yards. They’ve also been more conservative in allowing a lower third-down conversion rate and red-zone scoring percentage to their opponents. Both of those categories are marginal edges but given their more sizable advantage on offense, it all adds up.

This game is set as a pick’em, which obviously makes it a hard read. The numbers all seem to support the Chargers being the favorite here strongly, but the experience Bill Belichick brings as a coach and especially against rookie QBs can’t really be weighed.

Final Prediction: Patriots win 24-21

Picks: Under 47.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-9) (O/U 47.5)

The Eagles are averaging 21.5 PPG overall this season but just 17 PPG over their last three games.
The Packers have allowed 25.7 PPG this season.
The Packers are averaging 31.7 PPG this season — most in the NFL.
The Eagles have allowed 25.2 PPG this season.
The winner has also covered in each of the last 10 games between these teams.
The road team is 5-1 straight-up in the last six games between these teams.
The Eagles have won two of their last three games at Green Bay.
The OVER is 7-4 for the Packers this season.
The UNDER is 7-4 for the Eagles this season.
The Packers are 7-4 ATS this season.
The Eagles are 4-7 ATS this season.
Vegas has an implied total of 28.2-19.2 in favor of the Packers.
The public likes the Packers to win and cover with the over hitting.

The Eagles have consistently lost three-straight games. They have looked equally terrible in each game and scored exactly 17 points in each game. They’ve managed to pick up three wins this season, but two of those came from within their awful division. They haven’t even been able to cover the spread well this season but have consistently seen the under hit in each of their last five games.

The Packers are coming into this game in first place in the NFC North. They just manhandled the Bears 41-25 and have won three of their last four games. Even in their most recent loss, they managed 31 points against Indy. They have only lost once at home this season.

You don’t need to overthink the stats here. The Packers have a huge advantage offensively over the Eagles. We see some back and forth on the defensive side of the ball, but it’s nowhere near enough to make you think this won’t be a blood bath.

Final Prediction: Packers win 30-20

Picks: Packers -9, Over 47.5

NFL Pick’em: Week 13