NFL Pick’em Week 15

NFL Picks

NFL Pick'em Week 15

For this article, we dig through every game of the Sunday slate to provide the top matchup notes worth knowing with a brief overview and picks for each game. Betting trends are found thanks to Team Rankings with some advanced matchup strength vs. weakness notes provided by Inside Edge. Let’s get to the action for NFL Pick’em Week 15.

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San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Dallas Cowboys (O/U 45)

The 49ers are averaging 23.1 PPG this season and 20.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Cowboys have allowed 30.8 PPG overall this season (most in NFL) and 37.5 PPG at home.
The Cowboys are averaging 22.9 PPG overall this season and 26.7 PPG at home.
The 49ers have allowed 23.9 PPG this season.
The Cowboys have won five of their last six games against the 49ers.
The road team has won each of the last four games between these teams.
The 49ers are 5-8 ATS this season.
The Cowboys are 3-10 ATS this season — worst in the NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 24-21 in favor of the 49ers.
The public likes the 49ers to win and cover with the under hitting.
The Cowboys have scored just 21 TDs in the red zone this season — fifth-fewest in NFL. The 49ers have allowed 18 TDs when defending in the red zone this season — second-fewest in the NFL.
The Cowboys have run 13.0% of their offensive plays in the red zone this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL. The 49ers have allowed their opponent to run 13.0% of plays in the red zone this season — tied for seventh-best in NFL.
49ers WRs have averaged 7.0 yards after the catch this season — best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed 4.9 yards after the catch to WRs this season — fourth-worst in NFL.
Nick Mullens (SF) has targeted receivers at an average depth of 6.1 yards this season — 3rd-lowest of 33 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 7.7
Andy Dalton (DAL) has completed passes for 20+ yards on just 10 of his 223 total passing attempts this season — worst of 33 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 9%
The Cowboys defense has allowed 2,126 rushing yards this season — most in NFL.

We get a very watered-down version of what has been one of the great rivalries in the NFL this week. The 49ers have been nursing injuries all season and still won’t have Jimmy Garoppolo back under center. Turnover machine Nick Mullens is expected to be under center once again as his backup, C.J. Beathard, hasn’t proved much better in the past. We’re at a point in this season with the 49ers that we could potentially see NFL veteran and XFL QB Josh Johnson get promoted from the practice squad. The 49ers lost back-to-back “home” games played in Arizona due to California banning contact sports due to COVID. They have lost five of their last six and failed to cover the spread in each of those losses.

The Cowboys beat down the Bengals last week 30-7. They have been all over the place as of late, making them a tough team to predict. Before last week, they got blown out 17-34 by the Ravens and 16-41 by Washington. They have had better luck on the road as of late with their win last week and their 31-28 upset against the Vikings on the road. They have just two wins over their last eight games, and both were on the road. So, it’s safe to say there is no home-field advantage to speak of here.

These teams are extremely close statistically in most categories. The Cowboys have an edge when it comes to pace of play, having registered the second-most offensive plays in the league. Ironically, they rank bottom five in the league in time of possession while the 49ers rank top 10. Both teams have been killed by turnovers this season, ranking bottom three in the league there. The 49ers have been better in the red zone this season, scoring on 68.2% of RZ drives compared to 50% for Dallas.

The 49ers aren’t the ferocious defensive unit we have seen in the past, but they’re the ’85 Bears compared to the Cowboys. The Cowboys have allowed the most points to opponents in the league, most rushing yards, and are bottom five in third-down conversions allowed. The 49ers have been average from a PPG perspective but have a top-three pass defense and rank top five in fewest plays allowed and third-down conversion allowed. The Cowboys’ lack of an ability to move the chains will be a big problem here, but they have far superior offensive talent in comparison at the moment.

While the Cowboys’ defense has had a propensity to let things get out of hand often this season, I just don’t know that this version of the 49ers’ offense is good enough to take advantage. We could see many drives stall in this game, which leads me to like the under.

Final Prediction: Cowboys win 21-20

Picks: Cowboys +3, Under 45

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-13) (O/U 47.5)

The Jaguars are averaging 20.1 PPG this season.
The Ravens have allowed 21 PPG overall this season (fifth-fewest) and 26 PPG over their last three games.
The Ravens are averaging 27.9 PPG overall this season and 31.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Jaguars have allowed 29.5 PPG this season — fifth-most in the NFL.
The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the Ravens.
The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 games between these teams.
Vegas has an implied total of 30.2-17.2 in favor of the Ravens.
The public likes the Ravens to win and cover with the over hitting.
The Ravens have rushed the ball on 52.0% of plays from scrimmage this season — highest in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 5.0 yards per carry this season — third-worst in NFL.
The Ravens have 19 rushing touchdowns this season — tied for third-most in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 16 rushing TDs this season — tied for seventh-most in NFL.
The Jaguars have run 40.0% of their offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field this season — tied for third-worst in NFL. The Ravens have allowed their opponents to run 41.0% of plays in their territory this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL.
The Jaguars have run 12.0% of their offensive plays in the red zone this season — tied for third-worst in NFL. The Ravens have allowed their opponent to run 12.0% of plays in the red zone this season — tied for third-best in NFL.
The Jaguars have scored on 32% of their drives this season — tied for third-worst in NFL. The Ravens defense has allowed scores on 31% of opponent drives this season — fourth-best in NFL.
The Jaguars have thrown for 20+ yards on 38 of 508 attempts this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL. The Ravens allowed 20+ yards on 7.0% of attempts this season — tied for second-best in NFL.
The Jaguars have scored on 42% of their drives in late and close games this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Ravens defense has allowed scores on 42% of opponent drives in close and late situations this season — tied for sixth-worst in NFL.

“Lamar Jackson is back!” proclaims the sports world. The Ravens got into a wild shootout against the Browns on Monday Night Football, and a safety on the last play of the game affected many bettors as the spread (BAL -3) went from a push to the Ravens covering. Some sportsbooks offered a bad-beat refund due to the wild nature of that play. Either way, the Raven’s offense looked more like themselves in that game, but their defense allowing over 40 points to the Browns shouldn’t be overlooked going forward. Before that, the beatdown a weak Cowboys team, 34-17. They have now covered in each of their last three games with the over hitting in their last two.

The Jags lost their 12th-straight game last week 10-31 against a surging Titans team. They are turning back to Gardner Minshew for this matchup against the Ravens’ top-five defense. Lucky him! Despite their losing ways, the Jags have been a decent bet ATS, covering in four of their last six games while the under has hit in four of their last five.

These teams are very different, statistically speaking. The Ravens offer a top-10 scoring offense with a league-leading rushing attack, league-worst passing game, and a top-five defense. The Jags offer a bottom-five scoring offense with a below-average rushing and passing game.

This game obviously won’t be close at all in the end, so it really just comes down to figuring out the spread and over/under. The Jags have been great at covering as of late, and a return to Minshew under center could actually be a good thing. I like them to cover, potentially in backdoor fashion on the wrong end of a blowout, and with the Ravens offense firing on all cylinders, we should see the over hit.

Final Prediction: Ravens win 30-20

Picks: Jaguars +13, Over 47.5

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3) (O/U 47)

The Bears are averaging 21.7 PPG overall this season but are averaging 30.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Vikings have allowed 27.3 PPG this season.
The Vikings are averaging 25.6 PPG overall this season and 29.1 PPG at home.
The Bears have allowed 22.4 PPG overall this season and 27.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Bears have won four of their last five games against the Vikings.
The Vikings have covered in each of their last two games against the Bears.
The Bears have covered in five of their last seven games against the Vikings.
The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven games between these teams.
The UNDER is 8-5 for the Bears this season.
The OVER is 8-5 for the Vikings this season.
Vegas has an implied total of 25-22 in favor of the Vikings.
The public likes the Vikings to win and cover with the over hitting.
Vikings RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on 13.0% of 359 carries this season — tied for second-best in NFL. The Bears have allowed 10+ yards on 13.0% of carries to RBs this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL.
The Bears have 6 rushing touchdowns this season — fewest in NFL. The Vikings have allowed just 8 rushing TDs this season — tied for third-fewest in NFL.
The Bears have thrown the ball 62.0% of the time this season — tied for highest in NFL. The Vikings have allowed 7.2 yards per attempt this season — tied for sixth-worst in NFL.
Dalvin Cook (MIN) has scored 15 TDs this season — most among NFL RBs.
Justin Jefferson (MIN) has 19 receptions for 20+ yards this season — tied for most among NFL WRs.
Kirk Cousins (MIN) has committed 5 fumbles since Week 11 — second-most among NFL QBs.
The Vikings defense have forced three and outs on 13% of opponent drives this season — second-worst in NFL; League Avg: 19%

The Vikings won the first matchup between these teams this season on the road, 19-13. The Bears will look for a chance to redeem themselves and upset on the road as well. The Bears snapped a six-game losing streak last week, defeating a depleted Texans team, 36-7. It was their highest-scoring game of the season and the fewest points their defense has allowed all season. It’s the only time the Bears have covered the spread in their last five games.

The Vikes lack momentum coming into this game, coming off a 14-26 loss to the Bucs. Before that, they won back-to-back home games against weaker opponents in the Panthers and Jags. Both of those games were kept really close, and each of their last three wins have been by less than one score. They have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games.

The Vikings have the edge offensively when comparing stats. While they have been just average when it comes to total points per game, they rank top eight in total yards, rushing yards, and first downs. They have been incredibly effective in the red zone, converting 72.7% of RZ drives into a score compared to 59% for the Bears.

We see the advantage shift on defense. The Bears haven’t been prolific this season, but they are still inside the top 10 when it comes to the fewest points allowed to their opponents. Both defenses have been solid at preventing their opponents from moving the chains, with each allowing a third-down conversion on just 37% of attempts. However, the Bears haven’t had much luck within their division this season. They’ve lost three-straight divisional tilts while allowing 34 points to the Lions and 41 points to the Packers recently. Their only divisional win came back in Week 1 against the Lions.

The recent form and trends both point towards the Bears potentially upsetting here.

Final Prediction: Bears win 27-24

Picks: Bears +3, Over 47

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-1) (O/U 41.5)

The Patriots are averaging 21.3 PPG this season.
The Dolphins have allowed 18.8 PPG overall this season (second-fewest) and 14.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Dolphins are averaging 25.4 PPG this season.
The Patriots have allowed 21.5 PPG overall this season but just 13.7 PPG over their last three games.
The home team is 7-3 in the last 10 games between these teams.
The winner SU has also covered the spread in each of the last 16 games between these teams.
The Dolphins are 10-3 ATS this season — most in the NFL.
The UNDER is 9-4 for the Patriots this season — tied for second-most in the NFL.
The UNDER is 8-5 for the Dolphins this season.
Vegas has an implied total of 21.2-20.2 in favor of the Dolphins.
The public likes the Dolphins to win and cover with the over hitting.
The Patriots have thrown the ball 44% of the time this season — second-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55%
Patriots QBs have a 75.6 passer rating this season — fourth-worst in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed a passer rating of 83.8 this season — third-best in NFL.
The Patriots have thrown the ball 29.0% of the time in the red zone this season — lowest in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 10 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
The Patriots have run successful plays on 48.0% of rush attempts this season — tied for best in NFL. Dolphins have allowed successful plays on 47.0% of rush attempts this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL.

The Patriots couldn’t get anything going against a stout Rams defense last week, falling 3-24. Before that, they demolished the Chargers and rookie QB Justin Herbert, winning 45-0. They also had a fairly impressive showing against the Cardinals recently. It hasn’t always been pretty, but the Pats have won four of their last six as they struggle to stay above .500. The under has hit in each of their last five games.

The Dolphins are on their second game of a three-game homestand. They fell to the Chiefs 27-33 last week despite intercepting superstar Patrick Mahomes three times. They’ve won seven of their last nine games and covered the spread in eight of those nine as well.

Statistically, neither of these teams have been lights out on offense. The Pats do boast a top-five rushing attack but also offer a bottom-three passing game. Both teams have been obedient this season, ranking top-three in the fewest offensive penalties.

We see more back and forth on defense. Both units rank top 10 in fewest points allowed to opponents. The Pats have allowed fewer yards overall this season, especially in the passing game. They have also allowed the fewest plays to opponents this season. The Dolphins have been the best in the league when it comes to creating turnovers, as we saw last week against the most efficient passer in the league. They have also allowed opponents to convert third downs at a league-leading rate of just 33%. The Fins also hold the advantage when it comes to red-zone defense, allowing opponents to score on 57.9% of RZ drives compared to 63% for the Pats.

The biggest factor in this game really comes down to how well Bill Belichick has performed against rookie QBs in his career. We saw that on display against Herbert and the Chargers, and he should do a solid job of shutting down Tua as well. Despite that, the Pats aren’t at home this time, and after the performance the Dolphins defense showed us last week, it’s hard not to like them here.

Final Prediction: Dolphins win 21-17

Picks: Dolphins -1, Under 41.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) at Atlanta Falcons (O/U 49.5)

The Bucs are averaging 28.5 PPG this season.
The Falcons have allowed 24.8 PPG overall this season but just 15.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Falcons are averaging 25.2 PPG this season.
The Bucs have allowed 22.6 PPG this season.
The Falcons have won six of their last seven games against the Bucs.
The road team is 6-2 in the last eight games between these teams.
The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight games between these teams.
The Falcons are 5-8 ATS this season.
The UNDER is 8-5 for the Falcons this season.
Vegas has an implied total of 27.8-21.8 in favor of the Bucs.
The public likes the Bucs to win and cover with the over hitting.
The Buccaneers have thrown the ball 61.0% of the time this season — fourth-highest in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 7.4 yards per attempt this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.
The Falcons are averaging 3.8 yards per carry this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 3.2 yards per carry to RBs this season — best in NFL.
Tom Brady (TB) has been sacked on just 3% of pass attempts (16/513) this season — tied for 2nd-best of 33 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 6%
Matt Ryan (ATL) has a passer rating of 96.2 when under pressure this season — best of 33 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 56.1
The Falcons have run 51% of their plays in their opponent’s territory this season — second-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%

This is the first of two matchups against these divisional rivals this season. The Falcons have gotten the better of the Bucs in recent years, but this will be their first time facing the new, Brady-led unit.

The Falcons continue to struggle to find their form this season, having dropped their last two games to the Chargers and Saints. They have lost three of their last four and been held to 17 points or fewer in each of their losses. They also haven’t managed to cover in any of those three losses. Their only win in the last month looks like an outlier where they beat the Raiders 43-6. They have seen the under hit in each of their last four games.

The Bucs have slightly more momentum on their side, coming off a 26-14 win against the Vikings. Before that, they lost back-to-back home games against tough opponents in the Rams and Chiefs. They have covered the spread in three of their last four games.

Statistically, this is an intriguing matchup. The Bucs have scored more points, but the Falcons have put up more offensive volume. They have accrued more total yards, first downs and have run the fifth-most plays in the league. The Falcons have even been slightly more efficient on third down. The Bucs have a huge offensive advantage in the red zone, having converted 70.8% of RZ drives into a score compared to just 49% for the Falcons.

On defense, we see the advantage shift purely towards the Bucs. They’re led by a league-leading rushing defense and rank top five in turnovers as well. The Falcons have struggled to be mediocre at best on defense, ranking bottom five in total yards allowed.

I would like the Falcons’ chances better here if we see Julio Jones active this week, but it doesn’t sound like that will be the case. The trends support the Falcons keeping this game close at least and the over hitting, but it’s tough to trust Atlanta right now.

Final Prediction: Bucs win 27-23

Picks: Falcons +6, Over 49.5

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-7) (O/U 50.5)

The Texans are averaging 22.7 PPG this season.
The Colts have allowed 23.1 PPG overall this season and 30.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Colts are averaging 28.6 PPG overall this season and 32 PPG over their last three games.
The Texans have allowed 27.6 PPG this season.
The Colts are 6-2 in their last eight games against the Texans.
The Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Texans.
The Colts are 8-5 ATS this season.
The Texans are 4-9 ATS this season.
The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 games between these teams.
The OVER is 8-5 for the Colts this season.
Vegas has an implied total of 28.8-21.8 in favor of the Colts.
The public likes the Colts to win, but the Texans to cover with the over hitting.
Colts RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on 13.0% of 330 carries this season — tied for second-best in NFL. The Texans have allowed 10+ yards on 14.0% of carries to RBs this season — tied for second-worst in NFL.
The Colts has run 16.0% offensive plays in the red zone this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Texans have allowed 20.2 PPG in the red zone this season — fifth-worst in NFL.
The Texans are averaging 3.5 yards per carry this season — tied for worst in NFL. The Colts have allowed 3.9 yards per carry to RBs this season — tied for third-best in NFL.
The Texans have run 13.0% of their offensive plays in the red zone this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL. The Colts have allowed their opponent to run 13.0% of their plays in the red zone this season — tied for seventh-best in NFL.
The Texans have thrown for 20+ yards on 51 of 432 attempts this season — tied for best in NFL. The Colts allowed 20+ yards on 10.0% of attempts this season — tied for worst in NFL.
Texans QBs have a 73.3 passer rating when their QB was under pressure this season — sixth-best in NFL. The Colts have allowed a passer rating of 68.9 when the opposing QB was under pressure this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

The Colts won the first matchup between these teams just two weeks back by a total of 26-20. Deshaun Watson threw for 341 scoreless yards in that game with one INT while rushing for one TD. He also fumbled twice, losing one. With their already-depleted WR corps in tow, the Texans still saw Keke Coutee and Chad Hansen accumulate over 100 receiving yards in the game. The Colts also saw a breakout game from T.Y. Hilton. The vet put up an 8/110/1 receiving line in the game. Hilton has roasted the Texans regularly. In 17 career games against them, he has eight games with over 100 receiving yards, three games over 150 yards, and a high of 223 yards in a single game against them. He’s scored 11 receiving TDs against them in his career.

The Colts are coming off back-to-back road wins here and have won four of their last five. They’ve covered the spread in each of their last five wins and seen the over hit in four of their last five. The Texans are on the opposite track at the moment. They’re coming off back-to-back losses and have failed to cover in each of those losses. They have seen the under hit in four of their last five.

Statistically, the Colts are the better team on both sides of the ball this season. They offer a top-five scoring offense and have limited their turnovers, accounting for the third-fewest in the league. The Texans have a lopsided offense ranking second in passing yards and dead last in rushing. They have also often lost the time of possession battle, ranking second-worst in the league in both number of offensive plays and time of possession. Despite their offensive woes, the Texans have a slightly higher third-down conversion rate and red-zone scoring percentage.

The Colts have a bigger advantage on defense. They’ve fallen out of the top 10 in points allowed but still rank 12th. They remain top 10 in the fewest total yards allowed, first downs allowed, and rank third in turnovers forced. On the other side, the Texans are bottom five in total yards allowed, first downs allowed, and number of plays allowed. They rank dead last in turnovers forced.

The signs all seem to pretty clearly point to an outcome here, which means it will probably go the complete opposite.

Final Prediction: Colts win 28-20

Picks: Colts -7, Under 50.5

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans (-11) (O/U 51.5)

The Lions are averaging 23.8 PPG overall this season and 27.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Titans have allowed 25.8 PPG this season.
The Titans are averaging 30 PPG overall this season (fourth-most) and 37 PPG over their last three games.
The Lions have allowed 29.9 PPG overall this season (fourth-most) and 34 PPG over their last three games.
The Titans are 5-0 in their last five games against the Lions dating back to 2001.
The Lions haven’t beaten the Titans since 1995.
The OVER is 9-3-1 for the Titans this season — tied for most in the NFL.
The OVER is 8-5 for the Lions this season.
Vegas has an implied total of 31.2-20.2 in favor of the Titans.
The public likes the Titans to win and cover with the under hitting.
The Titans have scored 37 TDs in the red zone this season — tied for most in NFL. The Lions have allowed 36 TDs when defending in the red zone this season — tied for most in NFL.
The Titans have been successful on 49.0% of plays they have run this season — tied for third-best in NFL. Lions have allowed their opponents to be successful on 49.0% of plays this season — tied for worst in NFL.
The Titans have rushed for 2,062 yards this season — second-most in NFL. The Lions have allowed 1,745 yards rushing this season — fourth-most in NFL.
The Titans have run 16.0% of their offensive plays in the red zone this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Lions have allowed their opponent to run 17.0% of their plays in the red zone this season — tied for third-worst in NFL.
The Lions have thrown the ball 54.0% of the time in the red zone this season — tied for ninth-highest in NFL. The Titans have allowed 23 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

A big story to watch for in this game as game time approaches is the status of QB Matthew Stafford who is battling a rib injury. Stafford seems unlikely to suit up but could play despite missing practice all week. It seems pretty pointless at this point in the season to let him play injured. They have no shot of turning their season around at this point. They’ve lost three of their last four games and five of their last seven. With Stafford, they could potentially cover at +11. Without him, they likely have no chance.

The Titans remain in first place after their 31-10 win against the Jags. They’ve won three of their last four games and covered in each of those wins. They have also seen some high scores as of late, pushing the over in four of their last five.

This game is a no-brainer, statistically. The Titans are the far superior team on both sides of the ball, and without Stafford, this is a complete blowout. Losing Stafford would also make the under a pretty solid play here, though we could see the Titans push 40 points on their own if things get really out of hand.

Final Prediction: Titans win 30-17

Picks: Titans -11, Under 51.5

Seattle Seahawks (-6) at Washington Football Team (O/U 44.5)

The Seahawks are averaging 30.2 PPG overall this season (third-most) but just 25 PPG over their last three games.
WFT has allowed 21.2 PPG overall this season but just 16 PPG over their last three games.
WFT has averaged 22.1 PPG overall this season but 29 PPG over their last three games.
The Seahawks have allowed 24.9 PPG overall this season but just 12.3 PPG over their last three games.
WFT is 8-5 ATS this season.
The UNDER is 8-5 for WFT this season.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five games between these teams.
The road team is 5-0 in the last five games between these teams.
Vegas has an implied total of 25.2-19.2 in favor of the Seahawks.
The public likes the Seahawks to win with the over hitting, but they’re split on the spread.
The WFT defense has allowed a passer rating of just 32.9 when they have pressured the QB this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 56.3
Russell Wilson (SEA) has been sacked 40 times this season — second-most among NFL QBs
The WFT secondary has missed 55 tackles on 275 opportunities (20%) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 15%
WFT WRs have fumbled 8 times this season — tied for most in NFL.
The WFT defense has allowed 10 TD passes in the red zone this season — tied for fewest in NFL.

This game could be exciting, but it really depends on the availability of QB Alex Smith for Washington. He’s battling a new calf injury, and coach Ron Rivera said he could wait for all the way up until game time to make a call on a starting QB. The line seems set anticipating Smith starting as the alternative option, Dwayne Haskins, would make this a lopsided game in favor of the Seahawks. Both defenses have been hot as of late, holding opponents below 17 points in their last three games.

Washington has been reborn with Smith as an inspirational leader. They’ve won four-straight games, including their big upset handing the Steelers their first loss. They’ve covered the spread in each of those four games, upsetting as underdogs in each of their last three.

The Seahawks needed a reassuring win against the Jets last week after losing to the Giants the week before. They got it, beating the Jets handily, 40-3. This game is a big prove-it type of matchup for both teams but for two very different reasons. Both are in first place, but the Seahawks need to prove that they’re capable of beating a strong defense to carry momentum into the playoffs. Washington needs to prove that they can go toe-to-toe with another strong offense and that they belong in the playoffs, not just because they’re the best of the worst in the NFC East.

The Seahawks are clearly the better offense here statistically on the season. They’re a top-three offense overall this season, while WFT are bottom three in total offensive yards. The Seahawks have a big advantage in the red zone this season, scoring on 74.5% of their RZ drives compared to just 56% for WFT.

We see the advantage shift towards Washington on defense. They’re top eight in both points allowed to opponents and top five in total yards allowed. They’ve also only allowed opponents to convert third downs 37% of the time.

This game really comes down to Alex Smith being available for Washington. If he’s good to go, I like Washington’s chances to be highly competitive. The defensive trends on both sides point towards the under being a strong play here.

Final Prediction: Seahawks win 24-20

Picks: WFT +6, Under 44.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (-7) (O/U 49.5)

The Eagles are averaging 21.3 PPG this season.
The Cardinals have allowed 23.3 PPG overall this season and 29.5 PPG at home.
The Cardinals are averaging 27.5 PPG overall this season but just 23.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Eagles have allowed 25.2 PPG this season.
The Cardinals are 5-3 SU in their last eight games against the Eagles.
The Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against the Eagles.
The UNDER is 5-3 in the last eight games between these teams.
The UNDER is 9-4 for the Cardinals this season.
The UNDER is 8-5 for the Eagles this season.
Vegas has an implied total of 28.2-21.2 in favor of the Cardinals.
The public likes the Cardinals to win but the Eagles to cover with the over hitting.
The Cardinals have 20 rushing touchdowns this season — second-most in NFL. The Eagles have allowed 18 rushing TDs this season — third-most in NFL.

The Eagles may have turned a corner last week with rookie Jalen Hurts under center. They pulled off one of the bigger upsets of the season, beating the Saints 24-21, ending the Saints’ nine-game winning streak and ending the Eagles’ four-game losing streak. Philly also hadn’t scored more than 17 points in their last four games and hadn’t scored more than 23 since Week 6 before Hurts took over.

The Cardinals are desperately trying to keep their playoff dreams alive. They got a convincing win against the Giants last week, winning 26-7. Before that, they lost three-straight against tough teams, including division rivals in the Seahawks and Rams, and also lost to the Pats.

The Cardinals are strong favorites offensively this season. They’re a top-10 scoring offense that ranks fourth in total offensive yards this season. They’ve been one of the faster-paced offenses in the league, ranking fourth in number of plays. They haven’t been very obedient this season, ranking dead last in offensive penalties.

One game from Jalen Hurts is a small sample to read into, but it was impressive. I watched many of his games last season in college, and he could be the real deal. The test last week against the Saints was really the Eagles feeding him to the wolves, and he came out unscathed. With the Cards not really playing their best ball as of late, I could see another upset on the horizon here.

Final Prediction: Eagles win 24-23

Picks: Eagles +7, Under 49.5

NY Jets at LA Rams (-17.5) (O/U 43.5)

The Jets are averaging 14.1 PPG this season — worst in the NFL.
The Rams have allowed 18.9 PPG his season — third-fewest in the NFL.
The Rams are averaging 25 PPG this season.
The Jets have allowed 30.2 PPG this season — second-most in the NFL.
The Rams are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games against the Jets.
The Rams are 8-5 ATS this season — tied for second-best.
The Jets are 4-9 ATS this season — tied for second-worst in the NFL.
The UNDER is 9-4 for the Rams this season — second-most in the NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 30.5-13 in favor of the Rams.
The public likes the Rams to win and cover with the under hitting.
The Jets have averaged 290 yards from scrimmage per game (3,771 YFS / 13 G) this season — worst in NFL. The Rams have allowed an average of 307.8 yards from scrimmage per game (4,001/13) this season — best in NFL.
The Jets have thrown for 2,424 passing yards in 13 games (186.5 YPG) this season — second-worst in NFL. The Rams have allowed 191.7 passing yards per game this season — best in NFL.
The Jets have scored on 25% of their drives this season — worst in NFL. The Rams defense has allowed scores on 28% of opponent drives this season — tied for second-best in NFL.
The Jets have gone three and out on 27% of their drives this season — worst in NFL. Rams have forced three and outs on 28% of opponent drives this season — second-best in NFL.
The Jets have a third-down conversion rate of 33.0% this season — second-worst in the NFL. The Rams defense has allowed a third-down conversion rate of 34.0% this season — second-best in the NFL.
The Jets have run 9.0% of their offensive plays in the red zone this season — worst in the NFL. Rams have allowed their opponent to run 12.0% of plays in the red zone this season — tied for third-best in NFL.
The Jets have run 37.0% of their offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field this season — tied for worst in NFL. Rams have allowed their opponents to run 40.0% of plays in their territory this season — tied for third-best in NFL.

The Jets are so bad. It’s almost impressive how bad they are. They’re the worst in the league in offensive points, total yards, first downs, number of offensive plays, and time of possession. They’re also bottom three in passing yards and third-down conversion rate. They just got beatdown 40-3 by the Seahawks, and we could easily see a similar outcome this week against the Rams’ top-three defense.

Final Prediction: Rams win 34-7

Picks: Rams -17.5, Under 43.5

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at New Orleans Saints (O/U 51.5)

The Chiefs are averaging 31 PPG this season — second-most in the NFL.
The Saints have allowed 20.4 PPG overall this season (fourth-fewest in the NFL) and just 14.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Saints are averaging 28.3 PPG this season.
The Chiefs have allowed 21.6 PPG this season.
The UNDER has hit in each of the last four games between these teams.
The OVER is 8-5 for the Saints this season.
Vegas has an implied total of 27.2-24.2 in favor of the Chiefs.
The public likes the Chiefs to win and cover with the over hitting.
The Chiefs have thrown the ball 55.0% of the time in the red zone this season — tied for sixth-highest in NFL. The Saints have allowed 19 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone this season — tied for third-most in NFL.
Saints WRs have 133.5 receiving yards per game this season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have averaged 132.6 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs this season — second-best in NFL.
The Saints have run successful plays on 48.0% of rush attempts this season — tied for best in NFL. Chiefs have allowed successful plays on 47.0% of rush attempts this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL.

We get a Super Bowl-caliber matchup here to end the day on Sunday. The Chiefs continue to roll as their win against the Dolphins last week marks their eighth in a row. We saw Patrick Mahomes uncharacteristically turn the ball over multiple times last week, but the Chiefs still came out on top. The Saints saw their nine-game winning streak snapped last week at the hand of rookie Jalen Hurts, making his first career start for the Eagles. It was an unlikely outcome, but perhaps the Saints were overlooking the Eagles with this game on tap the following week.

Comparing these teams statistically gives you a real understanding of just how great the Chiefs are. On offense, they’re the best in the league in total yards, passing yards, and first downs. They’re also top five in points for, third-down conversion rate, and fewest turnovers. The Saints are still a top-10 scoring offense, but their passing game has fallen below the league average while their running game remains a top-10 unit. They have also notably ranked second in time of possession this season.

The defense is where we see the Saints take the edge. Overall, they’re a top-five unit, allowing the second-fewest total yards to opponents, second-fewest rushing yards, and second-fewest number of plays allowed. While they got upset big time last week, we shouldn’t overlook how remarkable they had been before that.

While we would all love to see a shootout here, I just don’t know if that will be likely. The Saints defense has been very stout, and the Chiefs defense is no slouch either. They’re a top-eight unit in their own right. I think we see a tougher-played game here, but I like the Chiefs to come out ahead.

Final Prediction: Chiefs win 27-23

Picks: Chiefs -3, Under 51.5