NFL Pick’em Week 16

NFL Picks

NFL Pick'em Week 16

This is the last edition of the pick’em for the regular season, as we will be taking Week 17 off. We will return to provide our picks and incredibly in-depth analysis through the playoffs to help you win some money.

We have had another excellent season here providing picks, and I hope everyone has found the content useful and lucrative! With these last two weeks of the regular season, it’s important for bettors to really keep an eye on how teams at the top will be running things. It’s not unusual to see top seeds rest star players once they’re locked into the playoffs, and home-field advantages have been determined. Luckily for us, things are pretty competitive this season, and we may not see many teams — if any — rest players.

For this article, we dig through every game of the Sunday slate to provide the top matchup notes worth knowing with a brief overview and picks for each game. Betting trends are found thanks to Team Rankings with some advanced matchup strength vs. weakness notes provided by Inside Edge. Let’s get to the action for NFL Pick’em Week 16.

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Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) (O/U 54)

The Falcons are averaging 25.4 PPG overall this season but just 20 PPG over their last three games.
The Chiefs have allowed 22.1 PPG this season.
The Chiefs are averaging 31.1 PPG this season — tied for most in the league.
The Falcons have allowed 25.2 PPG this season.
The OVER has hit in each of the last five matchups between these teams dating back to 2000.
Vegas has an implied total of 32.2-21.8 in favor of the Chiefs.
The public likes the Chiefs to win and cover with the over hitting.
The Chiefs have thrown for 4,509 passing yards in 14 games (322.1 YPG) this season — best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 287.7 passing yards per game this season — second-worst in NFL.
The Falcons have gone three and out on 22% of their drives this season — tied for seventh-worst in NFL. Chiefs have forced three and outs on 21% of opponent drives this season — tied for seventh-best in NFL.

The Chiefs have clinched the AFC West already with a 13-1 record this season, but they are still looking to lock down home-field advantage through the playoffs. The Falcons are already eliminated from the playoffs and are currently in the mix for a top-five draft pick for 2021.

The Falcons are coming into this, having lost three of their last four and four of their last five. Ironically, their only win in their last five games came against the Raiders, who were the only team to beat the Chiefs this season. They had a commanding lead against the Bucs at halftime last week, but in true Falcons fashion, they blew it. This team does not give you any confidence from a betting standpoint to cover against a Chiefs team still playing with purpose. The Falcons haven’t been great ATS this season and are just 2-3 ATS in their last five games as well. They have seen the under hit in four of their last five games.

The Chiefs have won nine straight, including back-to-back hard-fought games against the Dolphins and Saints. While they’re the top seed in the league right now, they have still slightly underperformed based on expectations set by oddsmakers. They’ve failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.

The stats are unsurprisingly in favor of the Chiefs on both sides of the ball here, and they should put up a dominating performance on their way to locking in home-field advantage.

Final Prediction: Chiefs win 33-20

Picks: Chiefs -10.5, Under 54

Cleveland Browns (-10) at New York Jets (O/U 47)

The Browns are averaging 26.3 PPG overall this season and 34.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Jets have allowed 29.5 PPG this season — fifth-most in the NFL.
The Jets are averaging 14.7 PPG this season — fewest in the NFL.
The Browns have allowed 26.7 PPG overall this season and 30.6 PPG on the road.
The winner straight-up has also covered the spread in each of the last 15 games between these teams, dating back to 1988.
The favorite has won each of the last nine games between these teams.
The Jets are 5-2 straight-up in their last seven games against the Browns.
The UNDER has hit in each of the last three games between these teams.
Vegas has an implied total of 28.5-18.5 in favor of the Browns.
The public likes the Browns to win and cover with the under hitting.
The Browns have run successful plays on 51.0% of pass attempts this season — tied for ninth-best in NFL. Jets have allowed successful plays on 53.0% of pass attempts this season — tied for worst in NFL.
The Browns are 8-1 (.889) when scoring 22 or more points this season — third-best in NFL.

The Browns are firmly in the playoff hunt as the fifth seed in the AFC. They can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a loss/tie from the Ravens or Dolphins or a win and a loss from the Colts. The Jets famously had the worst win of the season last week. Their win keeps them from being one of just three teams in NFL history to finish a season 0-16. Their win was more of a knock on the Rams’ ability to be respected as a true threat in the playoffs than anything.

The Browns have won five of their last six games and in convincing fashion. Even their one loss over that span against the Ravens saw them put up 42 points. The Jets are starting to show life from a betting perspective. They’ve covered the spread in two of their last three games now and seen the under hit in each of their last two games.

This is another matchup that doesn’t take much analyzing to know what to expect from each team offensively and defensively. The Jets are still statistically the worst team in the league. The Browns currently rank top 10 in total offensive yards, led by the league’s third-best rushing attack. The Jets remain extremely volatile and incredibly hard to predict. They’ve scored totals of 3, 28, 3, and 23 over their last four games. They’ve been held to single digits five times this season but scored over 20 points in four of their last six. I don’t anticipate the Jets playing spoiler for a second-straight week, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them cover as well. The Browns notably allowed 25 points to the Jags four weeks back and beat them by just two points, which is a fairly decent comp. to a worst-case scenario here.

Final Prediction: Browns win 28-20

Picks: Jets +10, Over 47

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-8) (O/U 46.5)

The Bengals are averaging 19.4 PPG overall this season (third-fewest) but just 13.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Texans have allowed 27.6 PPG this season.
The Texans are averaging 22.5 PPG overall this season but just 15.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Bengals have allowed 25.4 PPG this season.
The Texans are 8-1 straight-up in their last nine games against the Bengals.
The Texans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against the Bengals.
The Texans are 5-9 ATS this season — second-worst in the NFL.
The UNDER has hit in each of the last five games between these teams and in eight of the last 10 games.
Vegas has an implied total of 27.2-19.2 in favor of the Texans.
The public likes the Texans to win and the over to hit, but they’re split on the spread.
The Texans have thrown the ball 61.0% of the time in the red zone this season — second-highest in NFL. The Bengals have allowed 22 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone this season — tied for second-most in NFL.
The Bengals have attempted 461 passes from the shotgun this season — fifth-most in NFL. The Texans have allowed 7.3 yards per attempt against the shotgun this season — fourth-worst in NFL.
The Texans have 8 rushing touchdowns this season — tied for fewest in NFL. The Bengals have allowed just 10 rushing TDs this season — tied for fourth-fewest in NFL.

The Bengals carried on the trend of terrible teams upsetting contenders in Week 15 by beating the Steelers in primetime on MNF, 27-17. The Bengals were 14.5-point underdogs coming into the game. The game ended their five-game losing streak and was the first time the team managed to score more than 17 points in a game since they lost Joe Burrow for the season. The Texans have now dropped three straight, with two of those losses coming against the Colts. Both of these teams are eliminated from playoff contention and have nothing to play for. The Bengals are in the mix for a top-three pick next season, while the Texans’ final standing has their pick near the top five.

We see some back and forth when comparing stats for this matchup, though both teams are notably bottom-dwelling units on both sides of the ball. The Texans remain one of the most one-dimensional teams in the league. They rank second in passing yards but dead last in rushing yards. Their offense just hasn’t been able to get going this season as they rank bottom five in first downs, number of offensive plays, and time of possession. The Bengals have had an opposite pace on offense. They rank top 10 in total offensive plays and time of possession but haven’t been able to turn that into points as they’re bottom three in points per game.

Both teams have been woeful on defense, but the Bengals have the slight edge in pretty much all statistical categories. They’ve notably been more stingy on third downs and in the red zone.

The head-to-head trends firmly support the Texans winning and covering, but they have been a terrible bet ATS this season, and their depleted offense gives us very little confidence. This is a game to avoid overall from a betting perspective, with both teams having nothing to gain from winning, but I would bet the Bengals at least cover here, and both defenses are bad enough to allow the over to hit.

Final Prediction: Texans win 27-21

Picks: Bengals +8, Over 46.5

Indianapolis Colts (-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (O/U 45)

The Colts are averaging 28.5 PPG overall this season and 32.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Steelers have allowed 18.9 PPG overall this season (second-fewest) but have allowed 25.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Steelers are averaging 26.1 PPG overall this season but just 16.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Colts have allowed 22.9 PPG this season.
The Steelers are 6-0 straight-up in their last six games against the Colts.
The Steelers are 16-2 in their last 18 games against the Colts dating back to 1985.
The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven games between these teams.
The UNDER is 7-5-2 for the Steelers this season.
The UNDER is 6-1-1 over the last eight games for the Steelers.
The underdog is 5-3 in the last eight games between these teams.
Vegas as an implied total of 23.5-21.5 in favor of the Colts.
The public likes the Colts to win and cover, but they’re split on the total.
The Steelers have rushed the ball on 35.0% of plays from scrimmage this season — third-lowest in NFL. The Colts have allowed 3.9 yards per carry this season — tied for second-best in NFL.
The Steelers have rushed for just 1,266 yards this season — second-fewest in NFL. The Colts have allowed just 1,383 yards rushing this season — fifth-fewest in NFL.
The Steelers have averaged 337 yards from scrimmage per game (4,715 YFS / 14 G) this season — third-worst in NFL. The Colts have allowed an average of 349.9 yards from scrimmage per game (4,898/14) this season — sixth-best in NFL.
The Steelers have attempted 530 passes from the shotgun this season — most in NFL. The Colts have allowed 7.0 yards per attempt against the shotgun this season — tied for sixth-worst in NFL.

This is a game loaded with playoff implications. The Colts are currently the sixth seed in the AFC, just below the Browns as they’re tied for second place in the AFC South. They’ve won three in a row and five of their last six. The Colts can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a loss/tie from the Ravens or Dolphins. The Steelers are doing the walk of shame after losing to the Bengals and their third-string QB on Monday Night Football. The Steelers have clinched a playoff berth already but have yet to clinch the AFC North. They can clinch here with either a win or a Browns loss. They’ve fallen to the third seed now, just behind Buffalo. They have now lost three in a row where they were easily expected to win two of those three, and they’ve failed to score more than 17 points over that span.

Statistically, the Colts are the better offense here. They’re averaging more PPG and have a commanding league when it comes to total offensive yards per game. They’ve been more disciplined this season, having the third-fewest turnovers. The Steelers have been slightly more efficient on third downs and in the red zone.

The more stout matchup here is really between these defenses. Despite their recent struggles, the Steelers are a top-three unit overall. We should see a low score here, with both teams ranking top five in turnovers forced and fewest plays allowed to opposing offenses. The Steelers again have been more efficient, allowing a lower third-down conversion rate and red-zone scoring percentage.

The wheels have really fallen off for the Steelers lately, but something tells me they have it in them to bounce back a bit this week. Their recent form makes the Colts the obvious favorite, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them upset. It’s not a bet I would make, but it’s possible.

Final Prediction: Colts win 23-20

Picks: Colts -2, Under 45

Chicago Bears (-7.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U 47.5)

The Bears are averaging 22.5 PPG overall this season and 33 PPG over their last three games.
The Jaguars have allowed 30.2 PPG this season — third-fewest in the NFL.
The Jaguars are averaging 19.6 PPG this season — fourth-fewest in the NFL.
The Bears have allowed 22.7 PPG this season.
Vegas has an implied total of 27.5-20 in favor of the Bears.
The public likes the Bears to win and cover, but they’re split on the total.
The Bears have thrown the ball 60.0% of the time this season — fourth-highest in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 8.1 yards per attempt this season — worst in NFL.
The Jaguars have 9 rushing touchdowns this season — fourth-fewest in NFL. The Bears have allowed just 10 rushing TDs this season — tied for fourth-fewest in NFL.
The Jaguars have scored on 32% of their drives this season — tied for third-worst in NFL. The Bears defense has allowed scores on 37% of opponent drives this season — tied for eighth-best in NFL.
Jaguars RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on 13.0% of 251 carries this season — fourth-best in NFL. The Bears have allowed 10+ yards on 14.0% of carries to RBs this season — tied for third-worst in NFL.

These teams are on opposite paths at this point in the season. The Bears are still hanging on to a shred of hope that they can make the playoffs, and they’re playing like it. They’re currently on the outside looking in as the eighth seed in the NFC. They really need to win out for a chance to get in. This week may not be tough against the Jags, but a Week 17 matchup against their division rival, the Packers, is a must-win. The Bears got a crucial win last week against the Vikings and put up at least 30 points for the third-straight week. After dropping six games in a row through the heart of the season, they’ve now strung together back-to-back wins.

The Jags are basically playing to lose right now and want that first overall pick. They lost their 13th in a row last week, getting blown out by the Ravens, 14-40. It was their second-straight blowout.

Despite this being a matchup against a team on the cusp of the playoffs and a team playing for the first overall pick, their stats really aren’t that far apart. The Jags have put up more total yards on offense this season and have been more efficient on third downs and in the red zone. The biggest edge to be had here is on defense. The Bears still boast a top-10 unit while the Jags are bottom three in points allowed, first downs allowed, total offensive plays allowed, and dead last in total offensive yards allowed.

With the Bears having a strong recent form and fighting to push their way into the playoffs, they’re the easy favorite here, and the Jags are no longer showing an interest in covering the spread.

Final Prediction: Bears win 26-17

Picks: Bears -7.5, Under 47.5

NY Giants at Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) (O/U 45.5)

The Giants are averaging 17.4 PPG overall this season (second-fewest) but just 10 PPG over their last three games.
The Ravens have allowed 20.5 PPG this season — fourth-fewest in the NFL.
The Ravens are averaging 28.8 PPG overall this season and 40.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Giants have allowed 22.2 PPG this season.
The Ravens are 4-2 straight-up against the Giants in their last six games dating back to 1997.
The winner SU has also covered the spread in all six games between these teams dating back to 1997.
Vegas has an implied total of 28-17.5 in favor of the Ravens.
The public likes the Ravens to win and cover with the under hitting.
The Ravens have a third-down conversion rate of 45.0% this season — tied for sixth-best in NFL. The Giants defense has allowed a third-down conversion rate of 45.0% this season — tied for eighth-worst in NFL.
The Giants have a third-down conversion rate of 39.0% this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL. The Ravens defense has allowed a third-down conversion rate of 37.0% this season — tied for third-best in NFL.
Giants WRs have just 6 receiving touchdowns this season — second-fewest in NFL. The Ravens have allowed 10 receiving touchdowns to WRs this season — tied for third-fewest in NFL.
The Giants have thrown for 6.3 yards per attempt this season — fourth-worst in NFL. The Ravens have allowed 6.1 yards per attempt this season — fourth-best in NFL.
The Giants have thrown for 20+ yards on 32 of 451 attempts this season — tied for second-worst in NFL. The Ravens allowed 20+ yards on 7.0% of attempts this season — tied for best in NFL.
The Giants have scored on 33% of their drives this season — sixth-worst in NFL. The Ravens defense has allowed scores on 30% of opponent drives this season — fourth-best in NFL.
The Giants have run 13.0% of their offensive plays in the red zone this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL. Ravens have allowed their opponent to run 12.0% of plays in the red zone this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL.
The Giants have been successful on 38.0% of plays they have run this season — tied for worst in NFL. Ravens have allowed their opponents to be successful on 43.0% of plays this season — tied for ninth-best in NFL.
The Giants have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 33% of pass attempts this season — tied for second-worst in NFL. The Ravens have pressured opposing QBs on 27.0% of passing plays this season — tied for ninth-best in NFL.

Despite the Ravens playing like one of the best teams in the league once again, they are still on the outside of the playoffs looking in. They need the Browns or Dolphins to tank going forward for their best chance to get in, but a loss here from the Ravens would be devastating. The Dolphins barely hold a tiebreaker over the Ravens, but they also play on Saturday this week. So, a Dolphins loss on Saturday would add even more fuel to the fire for the Ravens to motivate them to push their way in.

The Giants are in a similar situation as the entire NFC East is still alive heading into this week. The Giants have lost back-to-back games and haven’t scored more than seven points over that span. Washington is currently the fourth seed in the NFC and leading the East division, but they are losing momentum without Alex Smith under center. The Eagles and Cowboys have the momentum right now to make a late-season push.

The stats are horribly lopsided here on offense, with the advantage all on the side of the Ravens. We see a tighter matchup on defense. The Giants have been a top 10 unit all season while the Ravens are currently inside the top five. The Ravens have been more stout on defense when it comes to third-down conversion, while the Giants have been a better defense in the red zone.

A few weeks back, this game would have been a lot tougher to predict as the Giants were surging and the Ravens were still struggling to find their form. The tables have turned lately as the Giants haven’t surpassed the 20-point mark in their last four games while the Ravens have been on fire.

Final Prediction: Ravens win 27-17

Picks: Giants +10.5, Under 45.5

Carolina Panthers at Washington Football Team (-2) (O/U 44.5)

The Panthers are averaging 23.1 PPG this season.
WFT has allowed 21.1 PPG this season — fifth-fewest in the NFL.
WFT is averaging 21.6 PPG this season
The Panthers have allowed 25.4 PPG this season.
The Panthers are 5-2 SU in their last seven games against Washington, but Washington has won the last two games.
The UNDER is 9-5 for WFT this season.
WFT is 9-5 ATS this season — tied for second-best in the NFL.
The Panthers are 8-6 ATS this season.
Vegas has an implied total of 23.2-21.2 in favor of Washington.
The public likes the Panthers to win and cover with the under hitting.
The WFT have scored on 46% of their drives in late and close games this season — best in NFL. The Panthers’ defense has allowed scores on 41% of opponent drives in close and late situations this season — tied for eighth-worst in NFL.
The Panthers have run successful plays on 39.0% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — tied for second-worst in NFL. WFT have allowed successful plays on 45.0% of pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL.
The Panthers have thrown the ball 38.0% of the time in the red zone this season — tied for fourth-lowest in NFL. The WFT have allowed 11 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone this season — tied for second-fewest in NFL.
Panthers RBs have averaged 2.4 yards after contact per carry this season — tied for eighth-best in NFL. The Football Team has allowed 2.5 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — tied for second-worst in NFL.
The Panthers have scored on 52% of their drives in the first half this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL. The Football Team defense has allowed scores on 47% of opponent drives in the first half this season — tied for seventh-worst in NFL.
WFT QBs have a 14.6 passer rating when scrambling this season — second-worst in NFL. The Panthers have allowed a passer rating of 28.1 when the opposing QB was scrambling this season — fourth-best in NFL.

This game’s focus will all be on Washington as the Panthers are already eliminated from the playoffs. They are also in the mix for a top-five pick in the 2021 NFL draft, so they have more the win by losing out. The NFC East has been a trainwreck all season, but WFT has a shot at clinching the division here with a win and a Giants loss or tie. Washington had momentum on their side, winning four in a row with Alex Smith under center. That was all but lost last week when Dwayne Haskins was forced to start. Despite their defense holding the Seahawks to just 20 points, Washington still couldn’t keep up. They need Alex Smith back and healthy to better their odds here.

The Panthers’ season is a complete loss. They’ve lost three in a row and seven of their last eight games. They have managed to cover the spread in each of the last three games where they were underdogs.

The stats can be a bit misleading overall here this season as Washington has been a different team when they’ve had Alex Smith, but the Panthers have been better overall. They’ve been well disciplined, ranking fifth in fewest turnovers allowed. Washington has run more offensive plays o offense this season and has been slightly more efficient in the red zone.

The bigger advantage to be had here is on defense. Washington remains a top-five unit overall this season and has allowed the third-fewest first downs to opponents this season. They’ve been more stout than the Panthers in essentially every facet, including third-down and red-zone defense.

Washington’s defense is the key piece to lean on here as they’re playing at top form at the moment while the Panthers’ motivation is surely waning.

Final Prediction: Washington wins 23-20

Picks: WFT -2, Under 44.5

Denver Broncos at LA Chargers (-3.5) (O/U 49)

The Broncos are averaging 19.7 PPG this season — fifth-fewest in the NFL.
The Chargers have allowed 27.8 PPG this season.
The Chargers are averaging 23.4 PPG overall this season but just 16.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Broncos have allowed 28.2 PPG overall this season and 32.3 PPG over their last three games.
Vegas has an implied total of 26.2-22.8 in favor of the Chargers.
The public likes the Chargers to win and cover with the over hitting.
Chargers QBs have a 99.9 passer rating when scrambling this season — second-best in NFL. The Broncos have allowed a passer rating of 82.7 when the opposing QB was scrambling this season — sixth-worst in NFL.
Broncos QBs have a 12.4 passer rating when their QB was under pressure this season — worst in NFL. The Chargers have allowed a passer rating of 44.6 when the opposing QB was under pressure this season — fifth-best in NFL.
The Broncos have run successful plays on 41.0% of pass attempts this season — tied for second-worst in NFL. Chargers have allowed successful plays on 44.0% of pass attempts this season — tied for third-best in NFL.
The Broncos have been successful on 38.0% of plays they have run this season — tied for worst in NFL. Chargers have allowed their opponents to be successful on 43.0% of plays this season — tied for ninth-best in NFL.
The Broncos have gone three and out on 22% of their drives this season — tied for seventh-worst in NFL. Chargers have forced three and outs on 22% of opponent drives this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL.
Chargers RBs have averaged 1.8 yards after contact per carry this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed 1.9 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL.
Broncos RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on 12.0% of 322 carries this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed 10+ yards on 13.0% of carries to RBs this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL.

We get a game here between two teams with little to play for at this point in the season. Both have been eliminated from the playoffs, but they’re division rivals and have coaches and players facing heat, we should see a spirited game.

The Broncos are coming off a big-time beatdown last week where the Bills nearly hung 50 on them, losing 19-48. It’s the fourth time in the last six games where the Broncos failed to score more than 20 points. They’ve lost three of their last four games now and only managed to cover the spread once in those three losses. They have seen the over hit in back-to-back games.

The Chargers have momentum on their side coming off back-to-back wins against the Falcons and Raiders. This mini winning streak helped end a horrific slide for them as they had lost five of their last six games before that and hadn’t covered the spread once during that span. They have covered in each of their last two games but seen the over hit just once in their last four.

Comparing stats here shows a very lopsided advantage in favor of the Chargers. They’ve been a solid offense on paper, ranking top 10 in total offensive yards. They rank fifth in passing yards, second in time of possession, and first in total offensive plays. A big advantage here comes in the turnover department. The Chiefs are top 10 in fewest turnovers allowed while the Broncos are dead last. The Broncos offensive woes are well documented and highlighted by the team ranking bottom five in points, total yards, first downs, time of possession, and third-down conversion percentage. All very crucial categories if you plan on winning football games.

On defense, we see a more even matchup. A once-solid Broncos defense has been gashed this season and especially as of late. They’re bottom three in turnovers forced and bottom five in rushing defense. However, they have been slightly more efficient than the Chargers, allowing a lower third-down conversion rate and red-zone scoring percentage to their opponents.

The Broncos narrowly won the first matchup between these teams earlier this season in a 31-30 shootout despite being three-point underdogs at home. The recent form has shifted a bit at this point, with the Chargers playing much better, but this should still be a tight game. The over feels like the best bet here.

Final Prediction: Chargers in 30-27

Picks: Broncos +3, Over 49

LA Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) (O/U 47.5)

The Rams are averaging 24.6 PPG this season.
The Seahawks have allowed 24.2 PPG overall this season but just 11.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Seahawks are averaging 29.5 PPG overall this season (fouth-most) but just 24 PPG over their last three games.
The Rams have allowed 19.2 PPG this season.
The home team has won each of the last four games between these teams.
The Rams are 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Seahawks.
The UNDER is 10-4 for the Rams this season.
The UNDER is 8-6 for the Seahawks this season.
Vegas has an implied total of 24.5-23 in favor of the Seahawks.
The public likes the Rams to win but is split on the spread and total.
The Rams have 18 rushing touchdowns in the red zone this season — tied for second-most in NFL. The Seahawks have allowed 17 rushing touchdowns in the red zone this season — tied for third-most in NFL.
Russell Wilson (SEA) has been hit 100 times this season — third-most among NFL QBs.
Aaron Donald (LA) has 12.5 sacks this season — tied for most among NFL defensive linemen.
The Seahawks defense has allowed 18.2 receptions per game to WRs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13.2
The Seahawks have 14 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — second-most in NFL.
The Seahawks defense has allowed 293.0 passing yards per game this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 239.3
The Rams defense has allowed 6.6 yards from scrimmage per touch this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 7.4

What a game we have here. Division rivals fighting for seeding in the NFC playoff picture. The Seahawks have already clinched a playoff berth and are currently the number three seed in the NFC. They can clinch the NFC West with a win against their division rival here. The Seahawks have been getting wins lately but haven’t been as dominant as they were to open the season. They’ve won four of their last five but have also played all four weak NFC East teams during that span and only managed to beat three of them.

The Rams are doing the walk of shame coming into this matchup after handing the Jets their first win of the season. The loss knocked them down two spots in the playoff picture to the fifth seed. A win/tie here would help them clinch a playoff berth. They can also clinch with a Bears loss/tie or a Cardinals win/tie. With the Bears playing in the early game, they could already know their fate, but they desperately need to make a statement here to regain any bit of respect they had. The Rams won the first matchup between these two earlier this season, 23-16.

The stats show a really close matchup here on offense. The Seahawks are top five in points this season, while the Rams are just average. The two are neck-and-neck in total yards, with the Rams ranking eighth and the Seahawks ranking ninth. The Seahawks have the stronger passing game while the Rams have the slight edge in the running game. The Rams have been better at converting third downs and have had a faster-paced offense, ranking fifth in total offensive plays and seventh in time of possession. All areas where the Seahawks have been average. The Seahawks have been superior in the red zone this season, converting 75% of red-zone drives into a score compared to 64.7% for the Rams.

On defense, we see a major shift towards the Rams. They rank top three in fewest points allowed and have allowed the fewest total offensive yards to their opponents. They’ve also allowed the second-lowest third-down conversion rate in the league. The Seahawks are the complete opposite in some cases as they rank dead last in passing yards allowed. They’ve allowed opponents to run the most plays against them in the league this season and allowed the fourth-most first downs.

I know it’s hard for everyone to overlook the Rams’ loss to the Jets. But before that, they beat the Cardinals by 10 and dismantled the Pats, 24-3. Last week was the classic case of them overlooking the Jets with this matchup on deck. I think we see another very tightly-contested matchup here with the Seahawks evening the season series.

Final Prediction: Seahawks win 24-20

Picks: Seahawks -1.5, Under 47.5

Philadelphia Eagles (-2) at Dallas Cowboys (O/U 50)

The Eagles are averaging 21.6 PPG this season.
The Cowboys have allowed 30.9 PPG overall this season (second-most) but just 24.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Cowboys are averaging 24.2 PPG overall this season and 29.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Eagles have allowed 25.8 PPG this season.
The Cowboys are 4-10 ATS this season — worst in the NFL.
The Eagles are 5-9 ATS this season — tied for second-worst in the NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 26-24 in favor of the Eagles.
The public likes the Eagles to win and cover with the over hitting.
The Eagles are averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season — tied for best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed 5.1 yards per carry to RBs this season — second-worst in NFL.
The Cowboys have a third-down conversion rate of 40.0% this season — tied for eighth-worst in NFL. The Eagles defense has allowed a third-down conversion rate of 37.0% this season — tied for third-best in NFL.
The Cowboys has thrown for 2,185 passing yards in 7 games at home (312.1 YPG) this season — third-best in NFL. The Eagles have allowed 260.0 passing yards per game on the road this season — sixth-worst in NFL.
Eagles QBs have a 33.2 passer rating when their QB was under pressure this season — third-worst in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed a passer rating of 46.4 when the opposing QB was under pressure this season — sixth-best in NFL.
The Eagles have run successful plays on 42.0% of pass attempts this season — fourth-worst in NFL. Cowboys have allowed successful plays on 46.0% of pass attempts this season — tied for seventh-best in NFL.

We get another divisional tilt here loaded with playoff implications. The NFC East has been like a car wreck all season; you can’t help but slow down and watch. All teams are alive in the playoff picture, and all teams are rooting for Washington to lose. The Cowboys are in second place at the moment and have the most to gain from WFT losing.

The Eagles won the first matchup between these teams earlier this season, 23-9. A lot has changed since then. They have been reborn under Jalen Hurts, but the hype train quickly made its first stop as they lost to the Cardinals last week, 26-33. They have lost five of their last six, with that one upset against the Saints looking more like an outlier than a sign of things to come.

The stats are hard to trust here on the season for both teams. The Cowboys have seen a mix of Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton, and practice-squad QBs under center that have greatly skewed their stats. Their recent form shows a surge as they toppled the Bengals 30-7 two weeks ago and upset the 49ers 41-33 last week. Home/road splits haven’t been incredibly insightful overall this year, but the Cowboys getting gashed at home on defense has been pretty trustworthy. They have also seen the over hit in four of their last five games.

This has the feeling of a slugfest where each defense is weak enough, and each offense is motivated enough to exchange scores by the fistfuls. It could really come down to just who possesses the ball last and not who is the better team, which makes it tough from a betting standpoint when looking at the spread and winner SU. I love the over, though.

Final Prediction: Eagles win 30-31

Picks: Cowboys +2, Over 50