NFL Pick’em Week 3: Man vs. Machine

NFL Pick’em Week 3

Welcome to the Week 3 edition of our weekly pick’em column where we have put man against the machine to settle the age-old question — who is smarter!? We have partnered up with the folks over at Betting Antelope who will be providing “the machine” aspect of our weekly pick’em. If you’re unfamiliar with their product, Betting Antelope is an impressive machine learning model powered by SportsData.io and designed to predict moneyline, against the spread, over/under, and total team wins for NFL games. The model ingests data and trains itself each week as the season goes on, optimizing profitability by using a combination of regression and decision tree models to make picks. So this season, it’s my research, opinions, and instincts vs. the machine.

It’s funny how so much time off in the offseason can make you forget how bad the sting of loss feels. Week 2 offered us plenty of that in weekly pick’em pools as injuries and upsets ruled the league. In one week we lost Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, and pretty much everyone who catches a football in an Eagles uniform. In Week 1, I was proud to have started my season off getting the best of the machine, but in Week 2, the machine struck back. While neither of us blew the lid off the sportsbooks last week, the machine finished the week 12-14 total in ATS/OU picks while I registered a measly 8-20 record. My straight-up picks continued to be very successful, however, as I went 8-6 there in Week 2 after finishing 11-3 last week. The first four weeks of the season are always rocky as we get our lay of the land and see where teams stand against each other. It also takes at least three weeks for true trends to form which makes picking remarkably easier. So, hold onto your butts as we get ready to dive into our Week 3 matchup notes and picks!

For more info see FantasyData’s Latest NFL Odds page here.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-6)

• Bengals have thrown the ball 57.3% of the time since the 2017 season — sixth highest in NFL. The Bills have allowed just 6,951 passing yards since the 2017 season — third-fewest in NFL.
• The Bills defense has allowed 3,263 passing yards since last season — fewest in NFL.
• The Bills defense has allowed 40 rushing TDs since the 2017 season — most in NFL.
• Joe Mixon has 12 rushing touchdowns in the red zone since the 2017 season — tied for 10th most amongst RBs. The Bills have allowed 29 rushing touchdowns in the red zone since the 2017 season — most in NFL.
• Bengals RBs have been stuffed on 40.0% (12/30) of rushing attempts this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 18.6%
• The Bills defensive line has missed nine tackles this season — most in NFL.
• The Bills were 1-16 (.059) when rushing for less than 100 yards since the start of the 2016 season-worst in NFL.
• Bills RBs have averaged 8.6 yards after the catch since Week 12 of 2018 — tied for sixth-best in NFL. The Bengals have allowed 8.9 yards after the catch to RBs since Week 12 of 2018 — tied for fifth-highest in NFL.
• The Bengals have allowed 15.3 yards after the catch to RBs this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 7.8

The Bills have started this season great with two road wins against their fellow New Yorkers. Now they get their home opener against a new-look Bengals offense that’s still trying to figure itself out. The Bengals looked good going toe-to-toe with the Seahawks in Week 1 at Seattle losing the game by only one point. Last week was another story as they lost in their home opener to a better than expected 49ers team. The Niners put up 41 points against the Bengals in Cincy and after giving up the third-most points to opposing offenses last season, it looks like the Bengals could be headed down a similar road again this season. The 49ers RBs especially lit up the Bengals in last week’s contest which could also be a strength of the Bills offense this week if rookie Devin Singletary is ready to go. Even if he isn’t, ageless Frank Gore still has enough in the tank to exploit a vulnerable run defense and backup TJ Yeldon is more than capable in the passing game to take advantage of the Bengals giving up the most yards after the catch to RBs so far this season.

Cincinnati played better at home last season which doesn’t give me a ton of confidence in them traveling to Buffalo and pulling off an upset, but they almost accomplished that in Week 1. I think this game could be close enough to where the Bengals cover the spread, but I am leaning towards the Bills getting the win in front of their home crowd this weekend. The Bills also haven’t allowed more than 16 points to an opposing team yet this season, but I think the Bengals could be capable of breaking that trend.

My Final Prediction: Bills win 24-20

My Pick: Bengals +6, Over 43.5

Machine Pick: Bengals +6, Under 43.5

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-22.5)

• The Dolphins have been outscored 102-10 through the first two weeks of this season.
• The Dolphins have allowed eight TD passes this season — most in NFL.
• The Dolphins have allowed 393 rushing yards this season — most in NFL.
• The Dolphins have allowed four rushing TDs this season — tied for most in NFL.
• The Dolphins have allowed first downs on 55.6% of pass attempts this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 34.0%
• The Dolphins offense has allowed a QB hit on 21.3% of dropbacks this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 8.6%
• Miami Dolphins RBs have rushed for 52 yards this season — fewest in NFL.
• The Dolphins have run 986 plays since last season — fewest in NFL.
• Dak Prescott has 15 touchdown passes since Week 12 of 2018 — tied for fourth most of qualified QBs. The Dolphins have allowed 19 passing TDs since week 12 of 2018 — most in NFL.
• Amari Cooper has 16 receiving touchdowns since the 2017 season — tied for sixth-most amongst WRs. The Dolphins have allowed 65 receiving touchdowns to WRs since the 2017 season — tied for most in NFL.
• Randall Cobb averaged 6.1 yards after the catch last season — tied for sixth-best of qualified WRs. The Dolphins allowed 5.6 yards after the catch to WRs last season — tied for highest in NFL.
• Ezekiel Elliott has scored 20 TDs since the 2017 season — eighth-most amongst RBs. The Dolphins have allowed 38 rushing TDs to RBs since the 2017 season — tied for second-most in NFL.

You don’t need more than two weeks to know what kind of a team the Dolphins are going to be this season. This team is aiming for last place with the primary objective to accumulate as many draft picks as possible in one of the most full-rebuild modes we have seen since the Browns. They have given up the most everything to opposing offenses this season basically and no amount of points is unattainable at this point.

The Cowboys offense has been on one of it’s hottest starts we have seen under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Dak Prescott is playing at an elite level in search of a big payday as is Amari Cooper. In a game like this, it wouldn’t be surprising to see guys like Randall Cobb mix in for a big day even. I wasn’t confident with the Patriots being given such an absurd amount of points last week and bet against them. That didn’t go well. Now with the Dolphins on the road, I’ll take the Cowboys and whatever the ridiculous spread may become. The hardest thing to predict in these matchups is the over/under since we can’t rely on the ‘Phins to put up anything. You’re banking on the blowout being big enough to cover.

My Final Prediction: Cowboys win 42-3

My Pick: Cowboys -22.5, Under 47.5

Machine Pick: Dolphins +22.5, Under 47.5

Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

• The Broncos have not recorded a sack this season.
• The Broncos have pressured opposing QBs only three times this season — fewest in NFL.
• The Broncos do not have an interception this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
• The under has hit in each of the Broncos last 10 games.
• Denver Broncos WRs have been targeted 5.5 times per game in the red zone this season — 2nd highest in NFL; League Avg: 2.3. The Packers have not allowed a TD pass in the red zone this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
• Denver Broncos RBs have not rushed for a TD this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
• The Packers have not allowed a rushing TD in the red zone this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
• Joe Flacco had a 67.9 passer rating against the blitz last season — lowest of qualified QBs. The Packers have blitzed on 28.6% of plays in the red zone this season — tied for 2nd highest in NFL; League Avg: 6.4%
• The Broncos opponents have thrown 57 pass attempts in the red zone since last season — fewest in NFL.
• Davante Adams has caught 19 touchdown passes in the red zone since the 2017 season — most among WRs in NFL.
• Packers RBs have averaged 2.9 yards before contact per carry in the red zone since last season-best in NFL; League Avg: 1.6

The Broncos enter Week 3 still looking for that first elusive win while the Packers are coming off back-to-back wins against division rivals. A win won’t come easy for the Broncos this week at Lambeau, especially with the Packers defense looking night-and-day compared to last season. There were so many negative stats regarding the Pack’s defense from last season that I didn’t even bother posting because they just don’t fit this team anymore. Meanwhile, despite the two wins the Packers offense still looks like it hasn’t quite found it’s stride yet. Once that gets clicking, the league could be in trouble.

Joe Flacco hasn’t looked completely miserable as expected to start this season, but he also hasn’t seen much pressure yet this season. That’s going to change this week against a Packers defense that has the second-highest blitz rate so far this season. With the Broncos pass-catchers also looking somewhat unreliable outside of veteran Emmanuel Sanders, it’s going to be a tough go for the Broncos. Their defense also hasn’t shown up at all yet this season which is bad news when you’re about to face Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay.

The Packers are an easy pick this week and might even be my lock of the week. They too haven’t allowed an opponent to score more than 16 points so far this season. I like them to cover over 10 points.

My Final Prediction: Packers win 30-14

My Pick: Packers -7.5, Over 43

Machine Pick: Packers -7.5, Under 43

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (-1)

• Julio Jones has at least one TD reception in each of his last 6 games — this is the longest active streak.
• The Falcons offense has committed 7 turnovers this season — most in NFL.
• Falcons RBs have not rushed for a TD this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
• The Falcons have allowed four rushing TDs this season — tied for most in NFL.
• The Falcons have allowed only 122 yards after the catch this season — fewest in NFL.
• Falcons have thrown the ball 61.0% of the time in the red zone since Week 12 of 2018 — third highest in NFL. The Colts have allowed just 29 passing yards in the red zone since Week 12 of 2018 — fewest in NFL.
• Colts WRs have eight receiving TDs in the red zone since Week 12 of 2018 — tied for third-most in NFL. The Falcons have allowed seven receiving TDs when defending in the red zone to WRs since Week 12 of 2018 — tied for fourth-most in NFL.
• T.Y. Hilton was targeted 10 times inside the 10-yard line last season — sixth-most amongst WRs. The Falcons allowed 11 receiving TDs inside the 10-yard line to WRs last season — fourth-most in NFL.
• Colts TEs have been targeted 47 times in the red zone since the 2017 season — tied for third-most in NFL. The Falcons have allowed just six receiving TDs when defending in the red zone to TEs since the 2017 season — tied for fourth-fewest in NFL.
• Jacoby Brissett has one interception on 127 attempts when under pressure since the 2017 season — second-best among QBs.
• Jacoby Brissett has completed passes for 20+ yards on just two of his 55 total passing attempts (3.6%) this season — third-lowest of 32 qualified QBs; League Avg: 9.8%

The Falcons snuck by an injury-ravaged Eagles offense last week with a fourth-quarter comeback giving them a 1-1 start to the season. The Colts also upset a favorite last week, beating a tough Titans defense 19-17 in Tennessee. This comes on the heels of barely losing to the Chargers in overtime in Week 1. This is an impressive start against two playoff contenders for the Colts without Andrew Luck. Jacoby Brissett has played safe and serviceable to open the season, which will be needed this week against a Falcons defense that has been stingy to opposing passing offenses so far this season. This is a little different than last season where the Falcons were beatable in the secondary, especially in the red zone to WRs. If the Colts want to win this one they need to get their running game going early as the Falcons are tied for most rushing TDs allowed this season (4). 

On the other side of the ball, the Falcons simply need to take better care of the ball. Turnovers have hurt them and Matt Ryan is looking like he is regressing to that every other year poor QB form at times. Their running game has also been nonexistent as it looks like Devonta Freeman just doesn’t have any juice left. Lastly, Ryan and the Falcons have notably played better at home compared to on the road which is probably the primary reason the Colts are favored here. Despite their woes on the road, I think the Falcons could keep it within a three-point game, but I’m not confident which side they will finish in the win/loss column. 

My Final Prediction: Colts win 23-20

My Pick: Colts -1, Under 47.5

Machine Pick: Falcons +1, Under 47.5

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)

• The Chiefs have averaged 37.3 points per game on the road since last season-best in NFL; League Avg: 22.3
• Patrick Mahomes had a 118.1 passer rating against the blitz last season-best of qualified QBs. The Ravens blitzed on 26.9% of plays last season — highest in NFL.
• The Ravens have hit opposing QBs on 19.8% of dropbacks this season-best in NFL; League Avg: 8.6%
• Patrick Mahomes has not thrown an interception in any of his last 6 games — tied with Sam Darnold for the longest active streak.
• Travis Kelce has been targeted 15 times in the red zone since Week 12 of 2018 — most amongst TEs. The Ravens have allowed four red-zone TDs to TEs since Week 12 of 2018 — tied for fifth-most in NFL.
• Chiefs WRs have gained 1,246 yards on 77 receptions (16.2 YPR) since Week 12 of 2018 — second-best in NFL. The Ravens have allowed 14.4 yards per reception to WRs since Week 12 of 2018 — third highest in NFL.
• Chiefs WRs have caught six TD passes this season — most in NFL
• The Ravens have run 1,280 plays since last season — most in NFL
• The Ravens rushed for 2,462 last season — second-most in NFL. The Chiefs allowed 2,123 yards rushing last season — sixth-most in NFL.
• The Ravens had 18 rushing touchdowns in the red zone last season — third-most in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 18 rushing touchdowns in the red zone last season — second-most in NFL.
• The Chiefs have allowed 7.4 yards per carry on first down this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 4.3
• The Ravens defense has allowed 1,376 rushing yards since last season — fewest in NFL.
• The Chiefs secondary has not missed a tackle this season — fewest in NFL

This is going to be the game of the week right here in my opinion. I may not even watch red zone this week and lock onto this game only. Two teams who look like absolute powerhouses entering the season going at it. The most impressive rushing offense versus the most impressive passing offense against one of the most stout defenses in the league. Something has gotta give here, and to level the playing field a little and take away that defensive advantage, the game is in Kansas City which is one of the toughest fields to travel to for opposing teams.

The Chiefs are the only team who have given Lamar Jackson a regular-season loss in his career, and you have to give credit where credit is due, Jackson looks better so far this season. Yes, he has faced two of the most cupcake defenses in the league to open the year, but he is slinging it much better. One of his favorite targets may be missing this week as tight end Mark Andrews looks questionable to play, but Jackson has found success with others as well like rookie WR Marquise “Hollywood” Brown.

The Chiefs are also a little beat up on offense as both Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy are questionable heading into the weekend. Tyreek Hill is still out as well, but fourth-year WR Demarcus Robinson blew up last week, Sammy Watkins is still standing for now, and Travis Kelce will look to dominate as usual. Mahomes has enough weapons to still put up close to 30 points in this game despite slightly disappointing with “only” 28 points in Oakland last week. The Chiefs defense is also bad enough to let the Ravens keep pace. They did allow 26 points to the Jags in Week 1. This is probably one of the only weeks this season where you can’t feel too comfortable with the Chiefs favored by close to a full score.

My Final Prediction: Chiefs win 28-27

My Pick: Ravens +5.5, Over 52.5

Machine Pick: Chiefs -5.5, Push O/U

Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings (-9.5)

• The Vikings are undefeated (8-0) when leading at the end of the first half since the start of last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .789
• The Vikings were undefeated (27-0) when leading at the end of the third quarter since the start of the 2016 season-best in NFL; League Avg: .844
• Vikings WRs have seven receiving TDs in the red zone since Week 12 of 2018 — tied for fifth-most in NFL. The Raiders have allowed 10 receiving TDs when defending in the red zone to WRs since Week 12 of 2018 — tied for most in NFL.
• The Raiders have allowed 14 receptions for 20+ yards this season — most in NFL
• The Raiders have allowed 682 passing yards this season — most in NFL
• The Raiders do not have an interception this season — tied for fewest in NFL
• Vikings WRs have been targeted 23 times this season — fewest in NFL
• The Vikings offense have run 109 plays this season — 3rd fewest in NFL
• Dalvin Cook averaged 9.3 yards after the catch last season — fifth-best of qualified RBs. The Raiders allowed 10.4 yards after the catch to RBs last season — highest in NFL.
• Vikings RBs have rushed for 349 yards this season — most in NFL
• Tyrell Williams has gained 1,532 yards on 95 receptions (16.1 YPR) since the 2017 season — tied for sixth-best of qualified WRs. The Vikings have allowed 12.1 yards per reception to WRs since the 2017 season — third-fewest in NFL.
• The Raiders have rushed the ball on 65.2% of plays from scrimmage in the red zone since Week 12 of 2018 — second-highest in NFL. The Vikings have allowed seven rushing TDs in the red zone since Week 12 of 2018 — tied for seventh-most in NFL.
• Derek Carr was sacked 51 times last season — tied for third-most of QBs. The Vikings sacked the quarterback 50 times last season — tied for third-most in NFL.

This game looks like it’s going to be Dalvin Cook vs. the Raiders as Kirk Cousins and the Vikes passing game just hasn’t quite clicked yet this season. There are plenty of exploitable factors to love here that point to a Cousins breakout game, but not only can you not rely on him, but the coaches can’t rely on him and as long as Dalvin Cook is healthy, they’re going to feed him and let him carry this offense.

The Raiders were epically bad on offense last season on the road averaging only 12.7 points per game. After looking much improved in the first week, it turns out that was more a factor of the Broncos defense looking awful to start the year as the Raiders only managed 10 points against the Chiefs last week. They get a tougher opponent this week in a stadium that has always favored the under in contests. I’m not looking for many points to be scored in this one, but I would bet the Vikes do most of the heavy lifting in that department.

My Final Prediction: Vikings win 21-14

My Pick: Raiders +9.5, Under 43

Machine Pick: Push, Under 43

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-22.5)

• The Patriots have not allowed a TD this season — fewest in NFL
• The Patriots are undefeated (18-0) when having the lead at the end of the first quarter since the start of the 2017 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .744
• The Patriots have 5 interceptions this season — most in NFL
• The Patriots have pressured opposing QBs on 66.7% of dropbacks in the red zone this season-best in NFL; League Avg: 10.4%
• James White has 11 receiving TDs since the 2017 season — tied for most amongst RBs. The Jets have allowed nine receiving TDs to RBs since the 2017 season — tied for third-most in NFL.
• Julian Edelman has averaged 82.0 yards from scrimmage per game since Week 12 of 2018 — ninth best of qualified WRs. The Jets have allowed an average of 233.1 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs since Week 12 of 2018 — highest in NFL.
• Le’Veon Bell has at least one TD in each of his last six games — this is the longest active streak for RBs.
• Jets WRs have no touchdowns on 29 receptions this season — tied for highest in NFL; League Avg: 11.8
• The Jets offense is only averaging 39 plays per game this season-worst in NFL; League Avg. 59.3

Another week and another huge point spread for the Patriots as a favorite. The Jets are down to third-string QB Luke Falk this week unless Adam Gase smokes enough bath salts to turn on the bat symbol and have Jay Cutler swoop in and save New York. The Jets, unsurprisingly, have run the slowest offense imaginable this season coming in 20 plays per game under the league average according to FantasyData writer Jesse Jones. Le’Veon Bell is going to have to earn that paycheck he fought so hard for as the only serviceable offensive weapon.

The Patriots, on the other hand, look like they’re about to sleepwalk into the playoffs again with two games against both the Dolphins and the Jets, as usual, this season. With or without Antonio Brown on offense, this team will remain elite. Add in the fact that they’re playing in Foxborough this week and the Pats are the easiest lock of the week.

My Final Prediction: Patriots win 36-7

My Pick: Patriots -22.5, Under 43.5

Machine Pick: Patriots -22.5, Under 43.5

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)

• Philadelphia Eagles offense has run 143 plays this season — second-most in NFL
• Detroit Lions offense has run 138 plays this season — third-most in NFL
• The Eagles are undefeated (13-0) when having the lead at the end of the first quarter since the start of the 2017 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .744
• Carson Wentz has completed 20+ passes in each of his last 5 games — this is the longest active streak.
• Zach Ertz has been targeted 50 times in the red zone since the 2017 season — most amongst TEs. The Lions have allowed 13 red zone TD receptions to TEs since the 2017 season — tied for fifth-most in NFL.
• The Lions offense have faced a blitz 33.3% of the time in the red zone this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 6.4%
• The Eagles have allowed two TD passes on plays where they have pressured the QB this season — most in NFL
• Lions RBs have averaged 80.6 rushing yards per game since the 2017 season — seventh lowest in NFL. The Eagles have allowed an average of 64.5 rushing yards per game to RBs since the 2017 season-best in NFL.
• The Eagles have not allowed a rushing TD this season — tied for fewest in NFL
• Detroit Lions RBs have not rushed for a TD this season — tied for fewest in NFL
• Jordan Howard was stuffed 5+ times in 12 games since the 2017 season — second-most of qualified RBs in NFL.
• Eagles RBs have not rushed for a TD this season — tied for fewest in NFL
• Matthew Stafford has thrown for 8,853 passing yards since the 2017 season — sixth most amongst QBs. The Eagles have allowed 8,625 passing yards since the 2017 season — fourth-most in NFL.
• The Eagles have allowed 345 yards after the catch this season — most in NFL

The Eagles are limping in after a disappointing loss to the Falcons last week in Atlanta. I lost track of how many key players went out with injury, but we could be looking at Nelson Agholor as the WR1 for Philly this week. The Eagles have consistently put points on the board this season on offense, unfortunately, their defense continues to struggle against the passing game. That could be trouble against the Lions where Matthew Stafford looks to have regained his old form a bit and thrown for 630 yards with five TDs and two INTs to start the season. The Lions are also coming off a big victory after knocking off the Chargers last week 13-10.

Neither team’s running game has offered much so far this season which makes this look like it has the potential for a gold old fashioned shootout. The Eagles allowed Case Keenum to go over 300 yards in Philly in Week 1 and the Lions, though impressive last week, let Kyler Murray throw for over 300 yards in his rookie debut in Week 1. I like the home team to come away with the win but given the injuries the Eagles are dealing with, the Lions could keep it close.

My Final Prediction: Eagles win 26-21

My Pick: Lions +6.5, Over 45

Machine Pick: Lions +6.5, Under 45

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)

• Cardinals have at least one sack in each of their last 40 games — this is the longest active streak.
• The Panthers offense have faced a blitz 39 times this season — most in NFL
• The Panthers were undefeated (13-0) when not committing any turnovers since the start of the 2016 season-best in NFL; League Avg: .734
• The Panthers are 1-10 (.091) when throwing at least 1 interception since the start of last season — 2nd worst in NFL; League Avg: .380
• The Panthers were 1-11 (.083) when trailing at the end of the first quarter since the start of the 2016 season — 3rd worst in NFL; League Avg: .268
• The Panthers rushed for 2,152 last season — fourth-most in NFL. The Cardinals allowed 2,487 yards rushing last season — most in NFL.
• The Panthers had 17 rushing TDs last season — sixth-most in NFL. The Cardinals allowed 25 rushing TDs last season — most in NFL.
• The Panthers have allowed an average of 3.4 yards after contact per carry this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 1.1
• The Panthers secondary has missed 10 tackles this season — tied for most in NFL
• The Panthers have not forced a fumble this season — tied for fewest in NFL
• The Cardinals have allowed 12 receptions for 20+ yards this season — 2nd most in NFL
• Cardinals WRs have been targeted 73 times this season — most in NFL

One of these teams is going to get their first win this week, well… most likely… unless the Cardinals get their second tie. But that is unlikely, especially with Cam Newton sounding questionable to play this week. Even if he were active, he hasn’t been much help to this team so far this season. Newton has yet to throw a TD this season and even Christian McCaffrey disappointed last week as well. The secondary hasn’t stepped up to carry a struggling offense either as they’ve missed the most tackles in the league so far this season.

On the other side, the Cards have probably been the most impressive no-win team so far this season under Kyler and Kingsbury. They kept the game much closer than anticipated last week in one of the toughest matchups they’ll get all season at Baltimore as they lost the contest by a final of only 17-23. The fact that they kept a hot Ravens offense to only 23 points while scoring 17 of their own against that stout defense is a very positive sign heading into this matchup.

Even if Newton were healthy, I simply think the Cardinals are a better team right now. I’ll take them at home this week.

My Final Prediction: Cardinals win 24-14

My Pick: Cardinals -2.5, Under 44.5

Machine Pick: Panthers +2.5, Over 44.5

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)

• Saquon Barkley has 100+ rushing yards in each of his last 3 games — this is the longest active streak.
• The Giants are 1-16 (.059) when rushing for less than 100 yards since the start of the 2017 season-worst in NFL; League Avg: .298
• Jameis Winston has thrown seven INTs since Week 12 of 2018 — tied for seventh-most of qualified QBs. The Giants have caused 10 interceptions since Week 12 of 2018 — third-most in NFL.
• Jameis Winston threw 2+ interceptions in eight games since the 2017 season — tied for second-most amongst QBs.
• Buccaneers TEs have been targeted nine times in the red zone since Week 12 of 2018 — tied for fourth-most in NFL. The Giants have allowed five TDs when defending in the red zone to TEs since Week 12 of 2018 — tied for most in NFL.
• When Mike Evans is below his receptions average (5), his team is 2-10 (.167) since the start of the 2017 season — worst of 40 Qualified WRs in NFL; League Avg: .534
• Chris Godwin has gained 412 yards on 25 receptions (16.5 YPR) since Week 12 of 2018 — seventh-best amongst WRs. The Giants have allowed 14.8 YPR to WRs since Week 12 of 2018 — highest in NFL.
• Peyton Barber has 22 rushing attempts in the red zone since Week 12 of 2018 — seventh-most of qualified RBs. The Giants have allowed eight rushing TDs in the red zone since Week 12 of 2018 — most in NFL.
• The Buccaneers have blitzed on 33.1% of plays this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 9.8%
• Buccaneers linebackers have missed eight tackles this season — most in NFL
• Giants linebackers have not missed a tackle this season — fewest in NFL

The fact that the Giants have named Daniel Jones the starter for this game saved it’s potential to be a watchable football game. Neither team had offered much to get excited about this season so far. Neither team has scored more than 20 points this season entering the matchup and the Bucs came away with one of the ugliest wins you’ll see on Thursday Night Football last week as Jameis Winston is still not the answer there. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Daniel Jones outperform Winston in this matchup. Saquon Barkley will continue to be the focal point of the Giants offense and the Bucs need to figure out how to get Mike Evans going if they want a better chance to compete this season.

The Bucs defense has allowed fewer points than the Giants defense so far this season who has given up the third-most points in the league. Even though the offenses don’t look pretty, they could both be capable of putting up some volume at the very least. The score could creep higher here than anticipated and I am not confident putting either team on the winning side of the ball to be completely honest. I’ll roll with the home team since they’re favored but I wouldn’t give them almost a full score. This looks like more of a three-point difference here.

My Final Prediction: Bucs win 26-23

My Pick: Giants +6.5, Over 48

Machine Pick: Giants +6.5, Under 48

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)

• DeAndre Hopkins was targeted 15 times inside the 10-yard line last season — most amongst WRs. The Chargers allowed 10 receiving TDs inside the 10-yard line to WRs last season — tied for fifth-most in NFL.
• When Carlos Hyde is below his rushing average (53 yds), his team is 3-14 (.176) since the start of the 2017 season — 2nd worst of 28 qualified RBs in NFL; League Avg: .439
• Philip Rivers has thrown for 2,182 passing yards since Week 12 of 2018 — fifth most amongst QBs. The Texans have allowed 2,338 passing yards since Week 12 of 2018 — most in NFL.
• Philip Rivers has thrown nine INTs since Week 12 of 2018 — tied for third-most amongst qualified QBs. The Texans have caused nine INTs since Week 12 of 2018 — tied for fourth-most in NFL.
• Chargers RBs have been targeted 70 times since Week 12 of 2018 — tied for third-most in NFL. The Texans have allowed 402 receiving yards to RBs since Week 12 of 2018 — tied for third-most in NFL.
• The Texans have allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on four of their 42 carries (9.5%) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 2.7%
• Chargers RBs have averaged a TD every 18.9 carries since Week 12 of 2018 — best in NFL. The Texans allowed a TD every 22.8 carries to RBs since Week 12 of 2018 — third-lowest in NFL.
• The Texans have forced four fumbles this season — most in NFL
• The Chargers offense has committed two turnovers in the red zone this season — tied for most in NFL
• The Chargers have sacked opponents two times this season — tied for second-fewest in NFL
• Deshaun Watson has thrown deep balls on 25.4% of pass attempts this season — second-highest of 32 qualified QBs; League Avg: 12.7%

The Chargers are back home and outside of the domes that Philip Rivers has struggled in so much in his career (1-5 record) as they host the Texans. The Chargers barely snuck passed the Colts at home in Week 1 while allowing 24 points in the game. The Texans defense was better at home last season and that could be the case again this season as they gave up 28 points to the Saints on the road in Week 1 in that devastating last-minute loss.

There is some strength vs weaknesses here that the Chargers can exploit with Austin Ekeler, a very capable pass catcher, going against a Texans defense that has allowed a lot of receiving production to RBs. The Texans have generally kept RBs out of the end zone well on the ground, though they have allowed some explosive plays this season with four carries over 20+ yards allowed this season.

Deshaun Watson has been sacked more than he would probably have liked in the last two seasons, but luckily the Chargers have had a hard time getting after the QB so far this season. If Watson can stay upright and lock onto his receivers, this could look a lot like the Week 1 matchup where he found some luck with deep passes. I expect a close game here and could see either team come away with a win and not be surprised. I’m going to go with the Texans upsetting the Chargers on the road this week. The Chargers barely beat Indy at home then lost to the Lions. The Texans are better than both those teams and the Bolts just don’t seem to be clicking yet.

My Final Prediction: Texans win 28-26

My Pick: Texans +3, Over 49

Machine Pick: Texans +3, Under 49

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)

• The Saints are undefeated (10-0) when intercepting at least one pass since the start of last season-best in NFL; League Avg: .607
• Teddy Bridgewater has averaged just 5.5 yards per attempt this season — tied for 4th lowest of 32 qualified QBs; League Avg: 7.5
• Saints RBs had five receiving TDs last season — tied for seventh-most in NFL. The Seahawks allowed seven receiving TDs to RBs last season — most in NFL.
• Seahawks RBs have 46 rushing attempts in the red zone since Week 12 of 2018 — most in NFL. The Saints have allowed just one rushing TD in the red zone since Week 12 of 2018 — tied for fewest in NFL.
• Seahawks RBs have fumbled two times this season — most in NFL
• Russell Wilson has been sacked 102 times since the 2017 season — most amongst qualified QBs. The Saints have sacked the quarterback 100 times since the 2017 season — second-most in NFL.
• The Saints have sacked opponents nine times this season — most in NFL.
• The Saints have allowed four receptions for 20+ yards on plays where they have pressured the QB this season — tied for most in NFL
• The Seahawks are 9-1 (.900) when forcing at least one fumble since the start of last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .618

This game would have been a lot more exciting with Drew Brees active, but we will finally get a solid chance to see if Teddy Bridgewater can secure the role as the heir apparent to the future Hall of Famer. Bridgewater hasn’t shown very aggressive so far in limited action this season, and we could see the Saints running game take on a larger role on offense now, especially Latavius Murray who has mixed in sparingly compared to what we’re used to seeing from Mark Ingram.

The Seahawks are probably the least impressive 2-0 team in the league so far this season as they barely beat the Bengals at home in Week 1 by one point, then only took it to the Steelers without Big Ben for part of the game, winning by two points. Russ Wilson still has problems keeping himself upright which will be a problem against a Saints defense who leads the league in sacks to open this season. Where Russ can succeed though is making plays while on the move, which he is great at, as the Saints have allowed four receptions of 20+ yards when pressuring the QB.

It’s hard not to pick the Seahawks at home, especially without Drew Brees against them, but this team hasn’t instilled much confidence so far which makes the spread and over/under tougher to predict. The Saints do rank 27th-of-32 in points allowed this season though which helps sway things a little. 

My Final Prediction: Seahawks win 26-24

My Pick: Saints +4.5, Over 45

Machine Pick: Seahawks -4.5, Under 45

Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

• 49ers RBs have averaged 16.6 yards after the catch this season — second-best in NFL; League Avg: 7.8
• 49ers RBs have rushed for 338 yards this season — second-most in NFL
• Jeff Wilson has at least one TD in each of his last 4 games — Le’Veon Bell has the longest active streak for RB at 6.
• The 49ers have been flagged 12 times on offense this season — tied for most in NFL
• The 49ers have four INTs this season — tied for second-most in NFL
• The 49ers have not allowed a rushing TD this season — tied for fewest in NFL
• Pittsburgh Steelers WRs have dropped five balls this season — most in NFL
• Pittsburgh Steelers WRs have no touchdowns on 29 receptions this season — tied for highest in NFL; League Avg: 11.8
• The Steelers has allowed 6 TD passes this season — tied for 2nd most in NFL
• JuJu Smith-Schuster was targeted 11 times inside the 10-yard line last season — tied for third-most of qualified WRs. The 49ers allowed 13 receiving touchdowns inside the 10-yard line to WRs last season — most in NFL.

Another matchup where we have seen a team lose a veteran franchise QB here with the Steelers playing without Big Ben. The 49ers are not a team you want to mess with right now while not at full strength either. The Niners walked into Cincy and spoiled their home opener by putting 41 points on the board. The RBs ran the game as Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert, and Jeff Wilson all hand critical parts in the win. This is bad news for the Steelers whose defense has allowed at least 28 points in each game so far this season.

To make matter worse, the 49ers defense has completely come to life after being historically bad last season. They’ve held both opponents to only 17 points so far this season and it’s hard to see the Steelers doing much better on the road this week. James Conner is also looking questionable to play, and the receiver core there is just a mess. It might be a little before the Steelers notch that first win (Week 8 vs Miami). 

With the 49ers on a roll on both sides of the ball, they are a comfortable pick this week.

My Final Prediction: 49ers win 30-17

My Pick: 49ers -6.5, Over 43

Machine Pick: Push, Under 43

Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Cleveland Browns

• Baker Mayfield has completed 72.2% of passes at home since Week 12 of 2018 — fourth-best of qualified QBs. The Rams have allowed a completion rate of 59.4% on the road since Week 12 of 2018 — sixth-best in NFL.
• The Rams have allowed no passing TDs this season — tied for best in NFL
• The Browns offense have faced a blitz 27.0% of the time this season — 2nd highest in NFL; League Avg: 9.8%
• The Browns have been flagged 25 times this season — most in NFL
• The Browns have blitzed on 24.3% of plays this season — 3rd highest in NFL. Jared Goff has a 106.7 passer rating against the blitz since the 2017 season — best amongst qualified QBs.
• The Browns secondary has missed 10 tackles on 38 opportunities (26.3%) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 10.9%
• The Rams forced 3+ turnovers in 11 games since the 2017 season — most in NFL
• The Rams had 23 rushing TDs in the red zone last season — second-most in NFL. The Browns have allowed 17 rushing TDs in the red zone last season — tied for third-most in NFL.

All it took was one matchup against the Jets for the Browns to finally (sort of) live up to their preseason hype. The Browns notched their first win last week on Monday Night Football but will now host a Rams team who only wins games. As I mentioned before in this article, the Rams defense was actually better on the road last season allowing just 19.5 ppg compared to 27.4 at home. This is inverse to Cleveland who actually was slightly better on the road last season.

The Rams are basically what the Browns hope to be and look up to. Like a high school kid looking up to a professional athlete. I think we see that there is a sizable difference in this game between what a legitimate playoff team looks like vs a team that is still something of a work in progress. I like the Rams as a road favorite and don’t see it all that close.

My Final Prediction: Rams win 28-20

My Pick: Rams -3, Over 47.5

Machine Pick: Rams -3, Under 47.5

Chicago Bears (-4) at Washington Redskins

• The Bears were undefeated (11-0) when allowing less than 22 points last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .775
• Washington Redskins offense has not turned the ball over this season — tied for fewest in NFL
• Case Keenum threw 15 INTs last season — tied for second-most amongst QBs. The Bears caused 27 INTs last season — most in NFL.
• The Bears defense has scored in 11 games since the 2017 season — tied for most in NFL
• Bears RBs have been targeted nine times in the red zone since Week 12 of 2018 — third-most in NFL. The Redskins have allowed no receiving TDs when defending in the red zone to RBs since Week 12 of 2018 — tied for best in NFL.
• Redskins forced 2+ turnovers in 16 games since the 2017 season — tied for 3rd most in NFL
• Mitchell Trubisky has not thrown any TDs on 72 pass attempts this season — tied for highest of 32 qualified NFL QBs in NFL; League Avg: 21.1 attempts per TD
• The Redskins have allowed six TD passes this season — tied for second-most in NFL
• The Redskins have allowed 337 rushing yards this season — second-most in NFL

Not exactly a blockbuster matchup here for Monday Night Football this week as the Redskins host the Bears. While Case Keenum and the Redskins have played better than expected to start the year, the Bears are still lights out on defense and totally stink on offense. The Redskins also have a very underrated defense which makes the potential of thise being a really low-scoring game highly likely.

We could see both teams desperately lean on their capable pass-catching RBs and though the Redskins have allowed the second-most passing TDs this season, I wouldn’t be entirely confident in Mitch Trubisky exploiting a favorable matchup. It’s all about the defense once again for the Bears and I think that is strong enough to carry them to a road victory once again.

My Final Prediction: Bears win 20-14

My Pick: Bears -4, Under 41

Machine Pick: Bears -4, Under 41