Fantasy Football Sleepers Week 3
Large-scale changes in the NFL take a long time to develop and can be difficult to quantify given that even a full 16 game season is still a relatively small sample size. It remains interesting that through two weeks in 2018, only two teams passed on 70% of more of their offensive plays, but through two weeks in 2019, seven teams are at the 70%+ mark. If you’re playing in a 0.5 PPR or full-PPR league, running backs who are skilled receivers and wide receivers and tight ends who command target volume already have increased utility. If this trend of more teams relying more heavily on passing plays continues, these same player-types gain even more value.
Aside from short term injuries to the position, 29 of 32 NFL teams retain the same starting running back on their roster that they entered the season with, making the pool of available running backs on waivers quite shallow, and the puddle of available sleeper-worthy running backs with under 25% ownership has about as much depth as an episode of Here Comes Honey Boo Boo. There are more starting quarterbacks who are missing either a sizeable portion or the entirety of the remaining season than there are missing running backs, and the chances of that trend continuing are fairly low. For the sake of Week 3, rather than force a second running back as a sleeper option with a poor chance of hitting, I’ve included a third wide receiver instead! Onward and upward. Reminder: I’m using 0.5 PPR and a 12-team league size as the scoring format.
Week 3 Quarterback Sleepers
Jacoby Brissett, QB, Indianapolis Colts, 17% Owned
Jacoby Brissett enters his Week 3 matchup with Falcons as the QB17 overall, despite having faced two excellent defenses. While he was limited to 146 passing yards against the Titans in Week 2, he did pass for 3 touchdowns and finished as Week 2’s fantasy QB12. In his previous stint as a starter for the Colts in 2017, Brissett was protected at a rate of 87.3%, which ranked 20th among quarterbacks that season. So far in 2019, his protection rate is 94.2%, tied with Tom Brady for the highest rate in the league. Only six quarterbacks have had more than Brissett’s 10 attempts in the red zone through Week 2, and Brissett’s 70% completion percentage on those throws is 2nd-highest among them.
The Colts finally get a little schedule relief after playing their first two games on the road, and the Falcons defense should offer a nice respite. Don’t assume that the 2019 Falcons’ defense is as forgiving as the injury-ravaged 2018 version that allowed the sixth-most passing yardage, but looking at their two-week 2019 total is misleading. The Falcons played a Minnesota Vikings squad in Week 1 that attempted 10 total passes (that’s not a typo) for 98 yards, heavily skewing their low total passing yards allowed. Indianapolis’ dominant offensive line should hold off the Falcons’ pass rush, while the unit’s run blocking should benefit both Titans running backs and Brissett himself for his inevitable handful of rushing attempts. Brissett is a perfect streaming option for fantasy managers who’ve lost their starting quarterback to injury.
Mason Rudolph, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers, 11% Owned
Well, folks, it’s here. Mason Rudolph time has arrived. With Ben Roethlisberger missing the remainder of the season with an elbow injury, a new quarterback will start the majority of the Steelers games for the first time in 15 years. I boarded the Mason Rudolph train before he was drafted by the Steelers, mostly due to his deep-ball prowess. Per PFF, he had an adjusted completion percentage of 52.8% on deep passes which ranked 8th among all draft-eligible quarterbacks in the 2018 class.
Rudolph will start behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, with one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in JuJu Smith-Schuster, and excellent running back duo of James Conner and Jaylen Samuels, and multiple complementary receiving options in tight end Vance McDonald and young receivers James Washington and Diontae Johnson. Rudolph entered the Steelers’ Week 2 matchup in the second half and threw for 112 yards and two touchdowns. Facing the 49ers defense in Week 3, Rudolph is fortunate to have the Pittsburgh offensive line in front of him to slow down San Francisco’s pass rush, which should give him time to let those deeper throws develop. Rudolph has a higher ceiling than many of the veteran quarterbacks often ranked ahead of him for Week 3, and with so many top quarterbacks succumbing to injury, he’s a worthy sleeper.
Week 3 Running Back Sleepers
Darren Sproles, RB, Philadelphia Eagles, 6% Owned
Look, I love Miles Sanders. I think he’ll impress when given the opportunity, and I believe it’s just a matter of time before the Eagles increase his workload. That being said, barring injury, Darren Sproles isn’t going away. He’s been utilized on 29.4% of his snaps in 2019, the third-highest rate out of all of the Eagles offensive players. He’s been targeted on 11.8% of his snaps, the third-highest rate behind Zach Ertz and Desean Jackson. His 17.3 fantasy points per 100 snaps are – wait for it – the third-highest figure in Philadelphia. He’s only been targeted three times in each of the first two games for 21 total yards, but there’s reason to expect that number to increase quickly.
With injuries to wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and Desean Jackson and tight end Dallas Goedert, Carson Wentz’s receiving options have been severely whittled down. While this should mean increased opportunity for wide receivers Nelson Agholor, Mack Hollins, and rookie J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, the bet here is that Wentz will lean on his familiarity with Sproles as a receiving option. The Eagles face a Detriot Tigers team that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs, and they play in Philadelphia, where Sproles’ 14 yards per reception in 2018 was nearly double what it was on the road. You’re not going to want to buy fireworks to announce to your neighbors that you’re starting Darren Sproles, but you may find yourself quietly celebrating with a fist pump or two when he proves a viable flex play.
James Washington, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers, 26% Owned
Another good reason is the Steelers’ move to Mason Rudolph at quarterback, who just happened to play college ball for Oklahoma State alongside James Washington. For their shared final three college seasons, Washington caught 198 passes for 4,016 yards and 33 touchdowns, so there’s a tiny bit of familiarity between the two. Washington owns an average depth of target (aDOT) of 22.1 yards, the fourth-highest among all NFL wide receivers in 2019, which could align nicely with Rudolph’s deep passing proficiency. Washington’s snaps against Richard Sherman when he lines up to the offense’s right are daunting, but he splits his time fairly evenly on both sides of the formation, so should see plenty of snaps away from Sherman’s coverage. If the Rudolph/Washington combo is productive this week, this could be your last chance to snag Washington without parting with a hefty portion of your FAAB or a high waiver priority.
Devin Smith, WR, Dallas Cowboys, 7% Owned
Devin Smith was drafted in the second round of the 2015 draft by the New York Jets, but he may be off the radar for a large portion of fantasy players. Smith’s workout metrics are impressive across the board, but terribly injury luck has plagued his early career. Smith tore his ACL late in his rookie season, missed most of the 2016 season recovering from his torn ACL, and then tore the same ACL in the 2017 offseason. The Jets placed him on injured reserve after he cleared waivers, and then released him over a year later in July of 2018. Six months later, he signed a reserve/future contract with the Cowboys and made their 2019 53-man roster. Smith saw just six snaps in Week 1 and then increased his snap share in Week 2. Smith took that extra opportunity and proceeded to wreck shop with it, catching all three of his targets for 74 yards, including a 51-yard touchdown. Now with Gallup sidelined for up to four weeks, Smith should see his snap share grow again.
New Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has the Dallas offense on a tear, and Dak Prescott, in particular, is taking advantage as the fantasy QB2 overall. Prescott has completed 75% of his deep (20-plus yard) passes, the highest mark in the league, while Devin Smith has an aDOT of 18.7 yards, 16th-highest through Week 2. Unfortunately, the Cowboys draw an extremely challenging matchup in Week 3. Just kidding, they welcome the Miami Dolphins defense to Dallas, who’s allowed their opponents to score 90 total points against them, which is 27 points ahead of the next two most-forgiving defenses through two weeks. The Dolphins secondary is essentially what would happen if you stuck two wet pieces of toilet paper together and then tossed it in a blender, but worse. Honestly, if Devin Smith doesn’t take advantage of this matchup, he should probably retire and begin a new career selling medical equipment.
Cole Beasley, WR, Buffalo Bills, 7% Owned
Cole Beasley might look like a guy who’s memorized every Dispatch song ever written, but that doesn’t mean he’s forgotten how to catch footballs. Beasley’s lined up on 59% of the Bills’ offensive snaps, and his target rate of 15.3% leads all Buffalo offensive skill players. Beasley currently ranks as the fantasy WR48, but that’s after finishing as the WR59 in Week 1 and the WR37 in Week 2. His 2.62 yards per route is 24th among wide receivers, and he’s clearly becoming a reliable option for Josh Allen. Allen might have a Howitzer for an arm, but that doesn’t mean he can’t use a fast slot option for quick-developing plays. Beasley’s fills that role with his 8.5-yard aDOT, and his 92.9% true catch percentage was fourth-best among all wide receivers in 2018.
The Bills offense should be salivating at the opportunity to go up against the Bengals defense at home in Buffalo in Week 3. Vegas gives the Bills an implied team total of 25 points, and after the San Francisco 49ers managed to put up 41 points against this Bengals defense in Week 2, that seems like a fairly conservative projection. Beasley should line up most frequently across from slot cornerback B.W. Webb, which a matchup he can exploit. Beasley has yet to receive a red zone target from Josh Allen, but even without a touchdown, Beasley should be a solid play as a WR3 this week.
Week 3 Tight End Sleepers
Jack Doyle, TE, Indianapolis Colts, 20% Owned
You might wonder how a tight end can score 13 touchdowns on 110 targets and not finish as the number one at the position, and the answer is poor efficiency. Ebron had a true catch rate of 75% in 2018, 24th among tight ends, and an 8.2% drop rate that was second-highest. For his part, Doyle had a 4.6% drop rate in his 2017 season, as well as 10 targets in the red zone. Counting on a high touchdown total to repeat itself is a bad bet, especially when you recognize that Ebron had very little target competition in 2018 on a shallow receiver depth chart that became even shallower due to injuries. That being said, Doyle will need to be implemented as a red zone option to be a viable fantasy option, which hasn’t happened yet, while Ebron has two red zone targets and a touchdown. The Colts have played two extremely stingy defenses in the Chargers and Titans, and now they return home to face the Atlanta Falcons. Doyle has a snap share of 70% through two games to Ebron’s 44%, so it’s just a matter of time before his targets increase, and Week 3 should be a good place to start.
Tyler Eifert, TE, Team Name, 11% Owned
Injury-prone is a label too often used for players in a violent sport where avoiding injury is the least likely outcome, and many injuries are simply a result of bad luck. That being said, Tyler Eifert is injury-prone. Not only has he never played a full 16 games in his career, but he also hasn’t played more than four games in a season in the last three years. You have to go back to his 2015 season to find a fantasy-viable stat line, though his 615 yards and 13 touchdowns was most definitely that. When Eifert has been on the field, he’s been extremely efficient. He’s caught 8 of his 9 targets in 2019, and his reception percentage has been above 80% for the last three years. Eifert converted his first red zone target into a touchdown last week against the 49ers.
The Bengals face the Buffalo Bills in Week 3, and while the matchup isn’t ideal, they have allowed 10 receptions to tight ends over the first two games. Cincinnati has completely changed its offensive philosophy under head coach Zac Taylor, as they are passing at the highest rate in the league at 76% of plays, while also operating at an extremely fast pace, as their 102 passing attempts match an Arizona Cardinals team implementing a pass-heavy Air Raid system. The Bills have an excellent cornerback due in Tre’Davious White and Levi Wallace, and if their outside matchups are locked down, the Bengals will be forced to focus on Tyler Boyd in the slot and their tight ends in the middle of the field. If they can make a few trips to Buffalo’s red zone, Eifert should have a good shot at his second touchdown.
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