DraftKings NFL Picks Week 3
After a weird week 2, let dig into some week 3 action to see where we can find an edge. “Chalk, Pivots, and Punts” is an NFL DFS series focused around main slate GPPs. We go game by game looking at potential chalk plays to pivot away from, and perhaps discover some diamond in the rough type punt plays to add a differentiation piece to our builds. Each game will have a brief write up and will include the team’s projected point total and Vegas Implied point spread as of the time of writing. Here is a link to a Google Sheet that presents data I collect throughout the season breaking down points allowed to specific positions, and displays home/road splits, as well as the combined data. Below are links to the final data from last year I posted to Twitter.
- Link to Tweet: Chart showing where defenses allowed fantasy points by position last year
- Link to Tweet: Chart showing how defenses allowed TDs by Passing & Rushing last year
When discussing pivot plays, it’s not always as simple as saying “Player A” is chalk so pivot to “Player B”. Pivots can be a pivot from one player to another player at the same position, a pivot from one position to another, or just a way to pivot to the other side of a game that everyone else might be heavy to one side of. Simply put, the pivots will not always be direct pivots, more like other ideas to consider in the macro-view of the slate.
Below is my Chalk, Pivots, and Punts Chart based on my opinion of the slate and what the field will likely be on this week.
Let’s get after it…
Cincinnati Bengals (18.75/+6) @ Buffalo Bills (24.75/-6) [43.5]
Andy Dalton ($5300) has attempted the second-most passes in the league this year with 93 attempts, one less than Kyler Murray. Dalton ranks third in our accuracy rating metric, but his yards per attempt and deep passing are below average. He’ll rely on Tyler Boyd ($6500) and John Ross ($5100) when he has to pass, and mix in some Tyler Eifert ($3200) in the red zone and 3rd downs, but the Bengals would be wise to scale back some of the passing attempts and get their run game going against the Bills. The Bills have allowed the 5th most points to opposing RBs, and Joe Mixon ($5500) made a promise on Twitter he would do better. The Bills are not allowing a high amount of total rush yards per game, but they are allowing 4.8 per carry, and have given up two 20+ yard runs already this year. Mixon’s price is so easy to work with, he should see some elevated ownership, but may not make it to chalk status.
The Bengals defense is really bad to start the year, so it’ll be easy to load up on Bills offensive pieces in this one, and many people will. Josh Allen ($5900) is the linchpin of this offense and has the rushing ability to keep his floor up. This is the Bills home opener, so he finally gets to play in a stadium on his side. Allen and John Brown ($5500) will be a popular stack this week, and we can add Cole Beasley ($4400) and his 19% target share to the stack to capture most of the passing game. Allen will be a part of the rushing game, and so will Frank Gore ($4400) if Devin Singletary ($4300) can’t go.
Miami Dolphins (12.5/+22.5) @ Dallas Cowboys (35.0/-22.5) [47.5]
The Dallas defense has been pretty good this year, albeit against inferior opponents. Miami is the weakest opponent any team will face this year, and they have no key stars to target for DFS. At best you may consider Kenyan Drake ($4500) as an option, but I’m leaving the Dolphins alone for what I do. MME you may want to take a chance on something from their side of the game since it will be very low-owned. A possible punt could be Mike Gesicki at his $2600 price tag this week. Gesicki is seeing 62% of the Dolphins TE snaps and has 8 targets, which is 80% of the TE targets for Miami. Josh Rosen ($4500) has been named the starter but is in a tough spot this week. His price tag is interesting for a punt play, but I’ll fade him on the road against a tough defense.
The Dallas DST ($4300) will be all the chalk this week as folks look to target the Dolphins and Jets for their DFS defenses. The concern with using any offensive starters will be how long they play. We can probably get most of 3 quarters from the starters, but how much they’ll have their foot on the gas pedal remains to be seen. Once they get out to a 3 score lead, I’d expect guys to start coming out of the game. The safest plays in this scenario would be younger guys and guys not at the top of the depth chart. Devin Smith ($3400) is a bit of a free square this week and will carry heavy ownership, but he’s in a good spot. He’ll take over the deep role that Gallup has been playing for Dallas. Deep threats have a wider variance of outcomes, but carry high ceilings because of their big-play potential. If Smith hits on a long TD again this week, he’s going to pay off that $3400. Dak Prescott ($6500) has only attempted 8 deep passes (passes over 20 air yards downfield), but he’s connected on a whopping 75% of them. If Dallas chooses to roll up points quick so they can get guys out of the game sooner, then a Dak to Smith combo makes sense. If they choose to slow-roll this game and just handoff, then 3 quarters of Ezekiel Elliott ($8900) may be worth it. I tend to stay away from one-sided games as there is the risk you’re not going to hit +value if the game is not competitive, and that $8900 tag on Zeke is a pretty steep price to pay if he doesn’t score the bulk of the TDs before getting rested. The Dolphins have allowed two 40+ yard runs already this year, so it’s possible Zeke can do enough damage before he checks out.
Denver Broncos (17.75/+7.5) @ Green Bay Packers (25.25/-7.5) [43]
The Broncos have not been very inspiring on offense this year. The OL hasn’t been good and it’s affecting the rest of the team. Joe Flacco ($4600) always has low yards per attempt, but until the OL fixes things, it’s going to remain that way and may hurt Courtland Sutton ($4500) some. Sutton appears destined for a match-up with rising star CB Jaire Alexander, which is a double ding to his prospects this week. The only Bronco we can get excited about right now is Emmanuel Sanders ($4800) who leads the league in Red Zone and End Zone targets through 3 weeks and has the 4th highest DraftKings points per game at WR. His cheap price tag is going to attract a lot of attention to him this week, but his match-up with either Kevin King on the outside or Tramon Williams on the inside will allow him to put up solid points again this week. Due to Aaron Rodgers taking more sacks than your average QB, I am making the leap of faith that Denver DST ($2600) finally gets home and brings him down a couple of times in this one. The Packers aren’t scoring much so far this year, so between sacks and a possible low scoring game, the Broncos DST is a decent punt option this week.
The Packers are coming off 2 solid wins to put them alone in first place in the NFC North. They were able to get Aaron Jones ($6100) more involved last week, with a 43% Total Offense Opportunity Share, up from 27% the week before. However, LaFleur is now saying he wants to even out the touches between Jones and Jamaal Williams ($4000). Denver has been leaky to RBs, so one of the two could have a good game, but an RBBC will wash that out if they do split touches more evenly. Denver has held both #1 WRs they’ve faced to 7 targets each game, and Davante Adams ($7600) is only averaging 8.5 targets through 2 games as the lead dog in this passing offense. Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4300) has 6 targets in each game and a 7.0 DK average to go with it. Aaron Rodgers ($6100) is not being asked to do much, and therefore, he is not. He’s just over 200 yards per game with 3 total TDs. Possibly the best bet from the Green Bay side of this is the Packers DST ($3400) against the weak Broncos OL and overall offense. The Packers defense is flying around this year and making plays.
Atlanta Falcons (23.25/+1) @ Indianapolis Colts (24.25/-1) [47.5]
The Falcons continue on their journey of playing indoor games to start the year, which has been a proven benefit to their fantasy stats. However, the Colts have a very solid defense this year, and we have to look for their weakness. So far the only two players to have big games against the Colts were Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen in week 1 during an overtime game. Derrick Henry had a decent game last week. Congruent with last year, you want to start pass-catching RBs and TEs against the Colts defense. The Colts have been tighter against the TE so far this year, though Hunter Henry had to leave the game early in week 1. Devonta Freeman ($4900) is very reasonably priced and may go overlooked in this spot, making him a solid pivot option if you need some salary relief. Freeman has seen 4 targets in each of the Falcon’s first two games, and that is likely his floor total for this game. The Colts were missing stud LB Darius Leonard at practice on Wednesday, and if that turns into a missed game, Freeman has an easier road ahead of him. We’ll also want to look at Austin Hooper ($3600) here since the Colts will be focused on Atlanta’s trio of WRs in coverage. Speaking of, there is never a game where Julio Jones ($7300) is not a viable option, and for some reason, he’s priced low. That could attract attention and ownership from the field, but if enough people are looking at the raw numbers of the Colts keeping WRs in check, he may not see huge ownership. The rest of the Falcons will be low owned and make for solid MME targets.
Baltimore Ravens (23.5/+5.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (29/-5.5) [52.5]
This looks like the most exciting game on the slate, and will likely carry some heavy ownership plays. These two teams met last year with Lamar Jackson ($7000) as the starter and his Ravens took the Chiefs to overtime, eventually losing by a field goal. The Ravens had 3 players over 50 rushing yards in that game, including Jackson. The Chiefs are playing better run defense to start this year, so it may be tough sledding for Mark Ingram ($5700) and the RBs. Ingram still makes for a solid play because of how well the Ravens offense is playing as a whole. The main attraction for DFS is going to be stacking Jackson with either Mark Andrews ($4600) and/or Marquise Brown ($5900). Brown is 9th in the NFL in Air Yards, 3rd in Yards After Catch, and 6th in target share among WRs. He’s still being priced in the low-end starter range, which should continue to rise. In a game that has the highest Vegas implied total, he’s under-priced and will end up being chalky. If Breeland gets assigned to follow Brown, then you could punt with Miles Boykin ($3000) at min-price to get lower owned exposure to this game.
Patrick Mahomes ($7600) threw for 377 yards and a pair of TDs in the overtime game last year. He’s priced like a high-end RB this week and may struggle to pay that off, even though he is Pat Mahomes. Not having his starting LT may change the Chiefs game-plan a little here, and we may see less deep shots and more quick stuff with run-after-catch yards from the receivers. Earl Thomas has also said he’s going to eliminate all the Chiefs deep plays. Andy Reid is a very creative game planner, and so far this year, the receiver no one was on is the one to go off in the first two weeks. The most likely candidate for a big game will be Sammy Watkins ($6800) from the slot (which is where Fitzgerald and Kirk got points from last week), but if we’re going for an element of surprise as a pivot option, then Mecole Hardman ($5000) is the guy. Hardman had a good game last week catching 4 of 6 targets (same amount of targets Robinson had) for 61 yards and a TD. He could have had a monster game had his 74 yard TD catch not been called back. If people are chasing Demarcus Robinson’s ($5200) points from last week, or the safer option with Watkins, then grab Hardman at lower ownership and watch him go off. The Ravens haven’t faced a good TE yet this year, so the numbers look good. however, Baltimore was below average in allowing fantasy points to the TE position last year so this could be another big game for Travis Kelce ($7100) who leads TEs with 4 end zone targets. the next best is a pack of TEs with 1. He’s getting scoring opportunities.
Oakland Raiders (16.75/+9.5) @ Minnesota Vikings (26.25/-9.5) [43]
The Raiders came out of last week with injuries to their top WR and bell-cow RB. Both are listed as questionable, so we’ll need to monitor practice reports throughout the week. If either misses the game, the other becomes the beneficiary. If both miss the game, then it’s back to 2018 Oakland Raider football with Derek Carr ($4900) dumping off passes to Jalen Richard ($3000) and the TE, Darren Waller ($4100). Hunter Renfrow ($3700) is a punt option if those top Raiders miss the game and Vikings stud slot corner Mackenzie Alexander misses this week, too. For the most part, I’m ignoring Raiders on the road against an aggravated Vikings defense, with or without their top offensive weapons.
Dalvin Cook ($7800) is beasting this year and already has 4 breakaway runs. He hasn’t been quite priced like an elite RB yet, and will likely be chalk this week. Cook is likely to have a great game, but if you want to fade a chalk piece this week the Raiders are playing well against the run this year and the Raiders give the Vikes a perfect opportunity to get the pass game resuscitated if they choose to. Mahomes ripped the Raider up last week, and even Joe Flacco found 268 yards passing against them. Kirk Cousins ($5100) can use this opportunity to get his game right moving forward. The Raiders corners are no match for Adam Thielen ($6700) and Stefon Diggs ($6000), so use whichever one of these two fits your budget. One of them is likely to have a really good game, if not both. Kyle Rudolph ($3400) has been playing every snap for Minnesota but has little to show for it. He just signed a new contract before the season, and like Cousins has been doing next to nothing to reward the financial faith put in him. You could build a cheap and sneaky Minnesota passing stack, and stock the rest of the build with studs. The Vikings DST ($3300) is also in play and looks better with each practice Ty Williams and Josh Jacobs can’t participate.
New York Jets (10.5/+22.5) @ New England Patriots (33/-22.5) [43.5]
The Jets are down to 3rd string QB Luke Falk ($4600) which means the Patriots will do everything in their power to take away the best player on the Jets, Le’Veon Bell ($7000). The highest scoring opponent against the Pats through 2 games is JuJu with 13.8. The Jets are a full fade from me this week, but if you’re a 150 MME player, Jamison Crowder ($4800) or Robby Anderson ($4800) makes some sense.
The Jets defense has taken on two talented, yet not all the way there offenses so far this year and allowed the most points to their opponent’s WR1 and RB1. The Patriots are a superior team to the Bills and Browns at this point, so we can look at that and plug-and-play Julian Edelman ($6300) and Sony Michel ($6000) and we’ll probably be fine. The Jets secondary is a mess right now, so starting any of the other 2 WRs would be fine, too. Antonio Brown ($7100) is still a great player but is learning a new and complex system…and has off-field distractions. A guy I like in this match-up is Josh Gordon ($5400), who got a price drop after not being needed last week, as the Pats tried to assimilate Brown into the offense against another bad team. Gordon is typically the Pats big-play threat. If you want to go off the map a little farther and roster a really low owned guy who will still play during garbage time, then Phillip Dorsett ($3400) is that guy. Dorsett is the top WR in fantasy points per target and is number two in air yards per target. At $3400, he only needs to hit 1 big play for a TD to hit value with a 12-13 point game. Anything he adds to that is frosting on the cake. James White ($5100) makes some sense if the OL injuries force the Pats into passing to the RB instead of handing them the ball, but there’s also Rex Burkhead ($3900) siphoning off a few carries and targets each game. Of course, rostering defenses against Miami and the Jets is a viable strategy every week going forward, or at least until Darnold comes back, so there will be some split on ownership for them making the Patriots DST ($3800) a play we need to consider. Splitting your builds between Dallas and New England makes some sense this week.
Detroit Lions (19.25/+6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (25.75/-6.5) [45]
The Eagles have been a dominate run defense for the past few years, but are facing a rash of foot problems at the DT position this year. Malik Jackson is out for the year with a Lisfranc injury, Tim Jernigan broke his foot and will miss at least 4 weeks. Fletcher Cox is working his way back from a foot surgery during the off-season. The Lions just released carry vulture C.J. Anderson this week which seemingly provides more opportunity for Kerryon Johnson ($5600). Kerryon may see a slight bump in usage, but the Lions really like rookie 6th round pick Ty Johnson ($3000), too, and will give him work behind Kerryon. Being in a time-share is not ideal for either back, but we could easily see both of these guys have solid weeks moving forward. This week, I like both. Kerryon can hit chunk plays in both the running and receiving games and against this depleted Philly front, could finally have a great game. Ty is going to pay off his minimum price and makes a great punt play this week to free up salary. A spot where Philly has been weak going back to last year is against team’s number one WR. Kenny Golladay ($6600) is set up to feast in this match-up. He should see another 10+ targets and should clear 100 yards and a TD. The other Lions WRs are decent plays and are more MME pivots than anything. The field will be on Golladay, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he fails, making him good chalk. One of the easier guys to root for in the NFL, Matthew Stafford ($5500) is quietly getting it done in 2019. He’s thrown for an average of 315 YPG (helped by a full OT in ARI), and 5 TDs. If we’re expecting the Golladay to have a great game, then Stafford could as well. It’s a solid stack, and Stafford could be one of the more low owned QBs of the slate in a match-up where he has 300 yards and 2+ touchdown potential. His lack of rushing doesn’t help his floor, in the event he only throws for 1 TD and doesn’t hit the yardage milestone for DK. The upside with Stafford is he has thrown as many deep passes as Mahomes so far this year, and they are tied for tops in the NFL in this category. However, Stafford has a slightly better distance per attempt and he is completing 44% of those attempts, which is good for 9th in completion percentage on deep throws (Mahomes is completing 56%).
Carolina Panthers (21/+2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals (23.5/-2.5) [44.5]
Based on this tweet by Scott Barrett, this game features the fastest combined pace of play between the two teams, averaging 28.2 seconds between plays for both teams. This could change if Cam Newton ($6000) is unable to play (which appears likely). Kyle Allen ($4000) would get the start in that case, and Norv Turner could look to slow everything down and try to just hammer Christian McCaffrey ($8700) at the Arizona front seven. We’ve seen two run-first teams go up against the Cards defense, and neither was able to get their RBs going. Lamar Jackson did all the damage for Baltimore on the ground last week. What Arizona could do here, if Allen starts, is continue to stop the run, get out to a quick lead, and make Allen throw the ball. If this happens, then McCaffrey will see plenty of targets, which he will anyway, but it also increases the chances for D.J. Moore ($5900) and Curtis Samuel ($4800) to see a lot of targets. The main beneficiary, however, is likely going to be Greg Olsen ($3700). The Cards have allowed 28+ DK points each to Hockenson and Andrews to start the year, Olsen isn’t as young and spry as those guys, but he can get it done when called upon. When Kyle Allen started in week 17 last year, he targeted Ian Thomas 7 times (Olsen did not play), and D.J. Moore 8 times. Everyone else saw 4 or fewer targets, and McCaffrey barely played.
Through two games the Panthers defense has held everybody but Chris Godwin in check. They now have to go on the road and support a back-up QB. The defense is going to know this game is on their shoulders, but they have a tough task ahead of them defending the Cards personnel. Arizona is going to keep them spread out and force them to cover outside while keeping an eye on David Johnson ($6800) and Kyler Murray ($5800) on the inside. Larry Fitzgerald ($5100) and Christian Kirk ($5000) have been the preferred targets in this offense and should be again this week. Both line up in the slot, which is where Godwin killed the Panthers, which puts Carolina’s top two corners in coverage on the outside against Byrd, Crabtree, and KeeSean Johnson. You could punt with any of those three, but Fitzgerald is tied for 3rd in the league in targets for a reason, with Kirk not too far behind tied for 11th. This is where the offense is designed to go, and these are the best two receivers int he offense. If we’re betting on the pace of play to remain what it has been for these two teams, then a stack of Kyler, David Johnson, and Fitz or Kirk is a good way to attack this game from the Cards angle. You could run it back by adding Olsen and or McCaffrey.
New York Giants (20.75/+6.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (27.25/-6.5) [48]
The Giants are making a QB switch ahead of their trip to Tampa, and Daniel Jones ($5000) will take the torch from Eli. Jones looked good in preseason, and this may provide a spark for the offense. He’ll get the Giants top WR back from a concussion this week, too, with Sterling Shepard ($4900). Shepard primarily lines up in the slot where he can take advantage of young CB M.J. Stewart. Between Shepard, Evan Engram ($5200), and Saquon Barkley ($9100) Danny Dimes should have enough to work with to put up a decent game. Tampa has been really tough against the run so far this year, so we’ll have to see Barkley getting some targets up-field a bit to hit value. His carries may not produce much, and check-downs without a big play will only go so far toward paying off that $9100 tag.
Tampa is at the mercy of Byron Leftwich’s play-calling and Jameis Winston’s ($5400) decision making and accuracy. Even against the Giants soft defense, this can be detrimental. Still, we have to start expecting this offense to come to life soon. Right now the only must play is Chris Godwin ($6900), but you can consider Mike Evans ($6600) as well since he has been good in the past and this secondary isn’t too daunting. The coach-speak this week has been about getting the ball to O.J. Howard ($3800) more often, but that’s hard to trust. Peyton Barber ($4600) has been the lead back so far, but there’s always the threat a healthy Ronald Jones ($3900) could take that role away at any given point. Looking at potential match-ups, we could see Breshad Perriman ($3100) draw a lot of DeAndre Baker in this one. Baker is the worst CB in the league when it comes to yards allowed per target and QB rating allowed (perfect QBR). Perriman is a sneaky punt if Winston can connect with him.
Houston Texans (23.0/+3) @ Los Angeles Chargers (26.0/-3) [49]
Austin Ekeler ($7200) leads RBs in receiving yards and receiving TDs through two weeks and has a whopping 1.49 fantasy points per opportunity (0.21 more than the second-place RB). He has been the catalyst for this offense so far this year. The Texans allowed a big game to the combo of Kamara and Murray in week 1, so Ekeler will get his chances for plenty of fantasy points here. Keenan Allen ($7000) plays the same role for the Chargers as Mike Thomas does for the Saints and Thomas had 25.3 DK points week 1 versus the Texans. These are the Chargers top two options and are always in play. Mike Williams ($4900) is the big play option at WR for the Chargers and is averaging 22.4 yards per reception. If Rivers decides to throw a few over the top, then William could have a big game. The Chargers DST ($2500) is an interesting play based on how much pressure and sacks the Houston OL allow.
New Orleans Saints (20.25/+4.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (24.75/-4.5) [45]
The Saints are beat-up on offense heading onto Seattle this week. They’re without Brees, Tre’Quan Smith ($3700) is a DNP for Wednesday and Thursday, and Ted Ginn ($3900) has been limited in both practices so far. The Saints are going to have to figure out how to run the ball against Seattle’s stout defensive front and get Michael Thomas ($7400) and Jared Cook ($3800), who was prone to mistakes last week, into open spaces to make some plays. This will have to be done with some sort of QB combo including Teddy Bridgewater ($4700) and Taysom Hill ($4400). Thomas and Alvin Kamara ($8000) are the best bets for production, but they’ll both be somewhat contrarian based on the game environment. Cook could look to replicate what Vance McDonald did against Seattle last week when their back-up QB took over if he can keep from dropping passes and getting penalties. Anyone who watched that game last week may have recency bias and fade Cook, but we need to keep him in our pool.
Russell Wilson ($6300) had to throw the ball 35 times for 300 yards to beat the Steelers on the road last week. He may not have to do that again here if the Saints can’t get anything going. If Seattle does throw, Wilson has two pretty good targets in Tyler Lockett ($6200) and DK Metcalf ($4700) to work with, but they also could come with some low floor in a game that Seattle may be able to control with the run and on defense. Chris Carson ($5900) could be featured against the Saints 27th ranked run defense (by yards allowed per game). Will Dissly ($3400) is emerging as a red zone weapon for Seattle and could find his way into the end zone again. Seeing how banged up the Saints are on offense has to put the Seahawks DST ($3200) on our radars.
Pittsburgh Steelers (18.25/+6.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (24.75/-6.5) [43]
The Steelers mark the 6th team on this slate with a back-up QB making their first start for their respective teams. Coincidentally, they are all making their first starts on the road. The 49ers defense has been really tough to move the ball on this year, so I’m not expecting much from any of the Steelers offensive pieces this week. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6900) was my favorite WR coming into the season, but he hasn’t gotten it going yet, and that’s not likely to improve this week. His best path to production is if they get him in the slot a bunch against the 49ers weakest CB K’Wuan Williams. Aside from this being another 49er blowout and someone getting a TD against back-ups, as Ross did last week, there’s not much to work with here. James Conner ($6400) might be able to get something going if he gets high volume, but it’s hard to bank on that this week after coming off a knee injury.
The Steelers play tough run defense but can be thrown on as we saw when Seattle had to switch up their run-heavy approach and had Wilson throw 35 times. Jimmy Grappolo ($6200) is starting to look like the guy the 49ers had at the end of 2017 for 5 games. He’s making plays and limiting mistakes. His WR group is an eclectic group of #2 WRs (at best) for other rosters. Deebo Samuel ($4500) has looked like the best of the bunch through two weeks and seems to be picking up steam. He’s still priced down in the $4k range so he makes for a nice pivot to open up some salary elsewhere in the build. George Kittle ($5600) is still their best weapon on offense, even though he hasn’t had a big game yet. Dissly just hung 2 TDs on the Steelers last week, and we could see Kittle more involved in this game. Kittle is tied for 3rd among TEs for red-zone targets with four, and 4th among TEs in target share. He’s too good to not bubble up soon. The 49ers running backs had a field day against the soft Cincy run defense last week, but that won’t be the case against the Steelers front 7. I’m expecting this to be a Garappolo/Debbo/Kittle game, and they could get help from the 49ers DST ($3200) if Rudolph struggles in his first start of the year.
Final Thoughts
With pricing starting to adjust to what we’ve seen so far, those easy plays of the past two weeks aren’t as easy to get to anymore. The field is going to have to make tougher choices with their builds, and we’re going to want to start utilizing some of the value plays that are out there like Devin Smith, Ty Johnson, Phillip Dorsett, Breshad Perriman, and Deebo Samuel so we can fit more of the high floor/high ceiling guys into our builds. It’s rare to see so many QBs changes in the same week on the slate, but here we are. It leaves a lot of uncertainty with those offenses, so if you think you can find a match-up to exploit for one of those teams changing signal callers, then you need to use that edge to your advantage and be above the field on it. For me, I’m looking at those games with 45+ implied totals and spreads below a TD. There should be plenty to juice out of those games. I’m also looking at some pivots off of what teams have been doing to what they may do this week, like Minnesota passing more this week, or the Falcons trying to run more. I usually try to come in and update this throughout the weekend, so be sure to check back before Sunday to see if anything else has jumped out as an edge we can exploit. Good luck this week, and thanks for reading!
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