NFL Pick’em: Week 6

NFL Pick’em: Week 6

The NFL feels like it’s getting crazier and crazier each week this season. I thought last week was just crazy for me personally as my family and I were right in the path of Hurricane Delta. Because of this, I apologize that we could not provide this pick’em column last week. But we are back this week and ready to roll with tons of insight for every game on the NFL’s Sunday slate.

For this article, we dig through every game of the Sunday slate to provide the top matchup notes worth knowing with a brief overview and picks for each game. Betting trends are found thanks to Team Rankings with some advanced matchup strength vs. weakness notes provided by Inside Edge. The view of the public here is based on the expert consensus picks at Betting Pros.

You can also find consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 4 of the NFL right here at Fantasy Data. Now, let’s get to the picks!

Washington Football Team at New York Giants (-3) (O/U 43)

• The WFT is averaging 17.8 PPG this season — third-fewest in the NFL.
• The Giants have allowed 26.6 PPG this season and 31 PPG at home.
• The Giants are averaging 16.2 PPG this season (second-fewest in the NFL) and just 12.5 PPG at home.
• The WFT has allowed 28.4 PPG this season and 32 PPG on the road.
• WFT has given up at least 30 points to opponents in each of their last four games.
• The Giants have won and covered in four of their last five games against WFT.
• The winner has also covered the spread in each of the last 10 games between these teams.
• The Giants have thrown the ball 75.0% of the time in the red zone this season — highest in NFL. The WFT has allowed a completion rate of 75.0% when defending in the red zone this season — second-worst in NFL.
• The Giants have run successful plays on 32.0% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — worst in NFL. WFT has allowed successful plays on 43.0% of pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — tied for second-best in NFL.
• Daniel Jones has thrown two touchdowns on 111 completions (55.5 Completions Per TD) this season — worst Pass Completions Per TD rate of 34 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 13.4
• The public likes the Giants to win and cover with the under hitting.
• Vegas has an implied total of 23-20 in favor of the Giants.

We get a battle of the bottom-dwellers in this matchup as the two worst teams in the depressing NFC East battle it out. The sad thing about this is one of these awful teams could very well win this division. It’s completely wide open still. 

It’s always tough to predict matchups like these when you get teams who rank in the bottom of the league on offense, yet their defenses each allow points to their opponents by the fistfuls. Each team here has also lost by an average of 10 points per game this season. It’s especially difficult right now with the revolving door at QB for the WFT. Alex Smith remaining under center could right the ship for Washington as his experience as a game manager could be just what this squad needs. 

On offense, the Giants have an edge with 4.7 yards per play compared to 4.2 for WFT. The Giants have also converted third downs at a higher rate of 40.6% compared to a pitiful 29.9% for WFT. However, Washington has the edge in the red zone, converting 71.4% of drives into a score compared to just 30.8% for NYG. The defenses are really evenly matched in most categories. 

I want no part of betting this game, to be perfectly honest, but I would probably take WFT as an underdog here with Smith under center. They get their second win of the season while the Giants will have to look elsewhere for their first “W” of the season.

Final Prediction: WFT wins 26-24

Picks: WFT +3, Over 43

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-3) (O/U 55)

• The Falcons are averaging 24.4 PPG overall this season and 27.5 PPG on the road.
• The Vikings have allowed 30.4 PPG overall this season (tied for fifth-most in the NFL) and 37 PPG at home (second-most in the NFL).
• The Vikings are averaging 26.4 PPG overall this season and 32 PPG at home.
• The Falcons have allowed 32.2 PPG overall this season (second-most in the NFL) and 35 PPG on the road.
• The Falcons are 1-4 ATS this season and have missed the spread by an average of 7.4 PPG — second-most in the NFL.
• The Vikings have won and covered in each of their last four games against the Falcons.
• The UNDER has hit in seven of the last eight games between these teams, and the implied total hasn’t been above 50 points in any of those games.
• The Falcons haven’t scored more than 12 points in any of their last three games against the Vikings.
• The Falcons defense has allowed 20 TDs this season — most in NFL.
• The Vikings have thrown for 20+ yards on 18 of 139 attempts this season — tied for third-best in NFL. The Falcons allowed 20+ yards on 12.0% of attempts this season — tied for worst in NFL.
• The Vikings have scored 13 TDs in the red zone this season — tied for sixth-most in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 15 TDs when defending in the red zone this season — tied for second-most in NFL.
• Matt Ryan has no turnovers when under pressure this season (54 plays) — tied for best among NFL QBs.
• The public likes the Vikings to win and cover with the under hitting.
• Vegas has an implied total of 29-26 in favor of the Vikings.

Both of these teams have generally entered the season as playoff contenders in recent years, but neither are where they would like to be with over a quarter of the season in the books. The Vikes have struggled to start with a 1-4 record. The Falcons are worse off having just fired their head coach after starting the season 0-5. 

The Vikings statistically have the advantage in most categories here, both offensively and defensively. The Falcons have converted third downs at a marginally higher rate, but the Vikes answer back by having more success in the red zone scoring on 76.5% of drives compared to just 53% for the Falcons. This will be a big problem as the Falcons have also allowed opponents to score on 75% of RZ drives. 

We should get a solid shootout here as The Vikes score more and allow more points at home this season while the Falcons also score more and allow more points on the road. Shootouts can cause volatile situations. It’s also hard to say if the Falcons perform as the Texans did last week. After their head coach was fired, the offense looked more fluid and aggressive. You can’t bank on that being the case again here as well, and I’ll take the slightly more consistent Vikings even without Dalvin Cook in the backfield. 

Final Prediction: Vikings win 34-30

Picks: Vikings -3, Over 55

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (-3) (O/U 45)

• The Bears are averaging 21 PPG overall this season and 28.5 PPG on the road.
• The Panthers have allowed 23.6 PPG overall this season and 27.5 PPG at home.
• The Panthers are averaging 24.4 PPG overall this season and 30.5 PPG at home.
• The Bears have allowed just 20 PPG overall this season (fourth-fewest in the NFL) and 24.5 PPG on the road.
• These teams haven’t met since 10/22/17.
• The Bears have won four of their last five games against the Panthers.
• The home team is 8-2 all-time in matchups between these teams.
• The Bears have run 12.0% of their offensive plays in the red zone this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL. The Panthers have allowed their opponent to run 14.0% of plays in the red zone this season — tied for eighth-best in NFL.
• The Bears defense has allowed a completion pct of just 57% this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 66%
• Mike Davis has broken 21 tackles this season — most among NFL RBs.
• The Panthers secondary has missed 27 tackles this season — tied for most in NFL.
• The Panthers defense has allowed 8 rushing TDs to RBs this season — most in NFL.
• The public likes the Bears to win but the Panthers to cover with the over hitting.
• Vegas has an implied total of 24-21 in favor of the Panthers.

I think it’s safe to say that the Panthers have been one of the young season’s surprise teams. Even with them losing star running back Christian McCaffrey, they have trucked along to a 3-2 record. Their beating of the Falcons last week helped seal Dan Quinn’s fate of losing his job in Atlanta. Before that, they pulled off a huge upset over the Cardinals beating them by 10 points. On the other hand, the Bears are probably the ugliest 4-1 team in the league right now. Their record is what it is, but they aren’t compelling yet this season.

Offensively, the Panthers have the edge statistically over the Bears in most categories. The Bears have had slightly more success in the red zone scoring on 53.3% of those drives compared to just 50% for Carolina.

The defense is where the Bears can make a difference. They have allowed fewer yards per play than the Panthers and have a big edge allowing opponents to convert just 33.3% of third downs and score on just 36.8% of RZ drives. 

The three-point spread is right on here as this game could really go either way. I think the best bet to be had here is potentially betting on the over. The Bears have scored more and allowed more points on the road while the Panthers have scored and allowed more points at home. I keep going against the Panthers and regretting it. Despite the Bears’ defensive edge, I’m going with the home-team trend sticking here.

Final Prediction: Panthers win 26-24

Picks: Bears +3, Over 45

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3) (O/U 53)

• The Texans are averaging 22 PPG this season.
• The Titans have allowed 22.5 PPG this season.
• The Titans are averaging 30.5 PPG overall this season and 37.5 PPG at home.
• The Texans have allowed 28 PPG this season.
• The Titans are 1-3 ATS this season.
• The Texans are 1-4 ATS this season.
• The OVER is 3-1 in games featuring the Titans this season.
• The home team is 7-3 over the last 10 games between these teams though the away team has won each of the last two games.
• The winner has also covered the spread in each of the last 12 games between these teams.
• The Texans have run 9.0% of their offensive plays in the red zone this season — second-worst in the NFL. The Titans have allowed their opponent to run 12.0% of plays in the red zone this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL.
• The Titans have run 52.0% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Texans have allowed their opponents to run 53.0% of plays in their territory this season — tied for third-worst in NFL.
• The public likes the Titans to win and cover with the over hitting.
• Vegas has an implied total of 28-25 in favor of the Titans.

The Titans have caused a bit of a mess in recent weeks with their COVID problems, but things have been all good on the field. They just destroyed a Bills team that had previously looked like one of the strongest teams in the league by a score of 42-16. On the other hand, the Texans are trying to find their way after firing head coach Bill O’Brien. They put up a season-high 30 points last week in their first game without him.

Offensively, the Titans have the edge here, especially with their 82.4% red-zone scoring percentage compared to 53.9% for Houston. Defensively the Texans surprisingly have the edge as they’ve allowed fewer yards per play than the Titans. They’ve also allowed their opponents to convert third downs just 45% of the time compared to 60% for the Titans. The Texans have also only allowed their opponents to score on 54% of red-zone drives compared to a massive 83% for the Titans. With those struggles in red-zone defense for the Titans, I can definitely see how a reenergized Texans team could have a chance to keep up.

All-in-all I think the Titans are the more stable play here as they’ve shown more consistency this season,

Final Prediction: Titans win 30-26

Picks: Titans -3, Over 53

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-8) (O/U 46.5)

• The Bengals are averaging 20.4 PPG this season — fourth-fewest in the NFL.
• The Colts have allowed just 17.6 PPG this season — second-fewest in the NFL.
• The Colts are averaging 25.2 PPG overall this season and 32 PPG at home.
• The Bengals have allowed 25.2 PPG overall this season and 28.3 PPG on the road.
• The home team is 8-2 over the last 10 matchups between these teams.
• The Bengals have not scored a rushing touchdown in the red zone this season — fewest in NFL. The Colts have allowed just 1 rushing touchdown in the red zone this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
• The Bengals have scored just 5 TDs in the red zone this season — third-fewest in NFL. The Colts have allowed just 7 TDs when defending in the red zone this season — tied for third-fewest in NFL.
• The Bengals have scored on 37% of their drives this season — tied for seventh-worst in NFL. The Colts defense has allowed scores on 30% of opponent drives this season — second-best in NFL.
• The Colts have averaged 0.8 passing TDs per game this season — tied for second-worst in NFL. The Bengals have allowed 1.4 passing touchdowns per game this season — tied for sixth-best in NFL.
• The Bengals defense has allowed 357 yards after contact to RBs this season — most in NFL.
• Joe Burrow has been sacked 22 times this season — most amongst QBs.
• Joe Burrow has completed just 5% of passes (1 completions/22 net pass attempts) when attempting a pass of 20+ yards this season — worst of 27 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 39%
• The Colts defense has allowed 898 passing yards this season — fewest in NFL.
• Joe Mixon is averaging 1.2 yards per carry in the red zone this season — worst of qualified RBs. The Colts have allowed 2.1 yards per carry when defending in the red zone this season — fifth-best in NFL.
• The public likes the Colts to win, but the Bengals to cover with the O/U a push.
• Vegas has an implied total of 27.2-19.2 in favor of the Colts.

The Colts picked up just their second loss of the season last week as they ran into a suddenly surging Browns offense. The defense has been the big story for the Colts this season, but it’s tough to say still if they’re really as good as advertised. They held some inferior teams to low scores this season like the Jets and Bears and took advantage of the Vikings’ early-season struggles. They’ve also allowed 27 points to the Jags in Week 1, though, and 32 points to the Browns last week.

Joe Burrow’s first victory parade didn’t last long as he ran into the Ravens last week. The Bengals were only able to put three points on the board and accumulate 205 total yards of offense. 

The Colts have a distinct advantage here on both sides of the ball this season. They’re averaging a full yard per play more than the Bengals. Both teams have been inferior at executing third-down conversions and scoring in the red zone this season, making me feel like the under could be a solid play here. Neither team has been gashed on defense in either of these categories as well, which means we could see a lot of drives stall and each team settling for field goals over TDs when they get close. 

I’ll take the home-team trend here and the better defense with the Colts, but eight points feel like a lot for them to cover.

Final Prediction: Colts win 24-20

Picks: Bengals +8, Under 46.5

Detroit Lions (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U 55)

• The Lions are averaging 24.8 PPG this season.
• The Jaguars have allowed 29.4 PPG overall this season and 25.5 PPG at home.
• The Jaguars are averaging 21.8 PPG this season.
• The Lions have allowed 31.8 PPG this season — fourth-most in the NFL.
• The Lions are 1-3 ATS this season.
• The OVER is 3-1 in games involving the Lions this season.
• These teams have only played each other six times, dating back to 1995, and haven’t met since 11/20/16.
• The Jaguars have gone three and out on 8% of their drives this season — tied for second-best in NFL. Lions have forced three and outs on 12% of opponent drives this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.
• Jaguars WRs have caught 81 of 110 passes (74% Reception Pct) this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 66%
• Jaguars WRs have caught 7 touchdown passes in the red zone this season — tied for most in NFL.
• The Lions defense has allowed 80 completions this season — fewest in NFL.
• The Lions defense has allowed 189.0 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 135.0
• Matthew Stafford has not turned the ball over when pressured by the defense this season — tied for best amongst QBs. The Jaguars have pressured opposing QBs on 20.0% of passing plays this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.
• Vegas has an implied total of 29-26 in favor of the Lions.
• The public likes the Lions slightly to win and cover with the over hitting.

The Jaguars desperately need to get something going here. They’ve been held out of the win column since Week 1, having lost each of their last four games. They have allowed at least 30 points to each of their last four opponents while the offense has struggled to find its groove. The Lions are coming fresh off a bye week and are hoping to turn their season around as they’ve only been able to muster up one win this season as well.

Despite the Jags up and down offense this season, they have to slight edge here in this matchup regarding both third-down conversion rate and red-zone scoring percentage. Neither team moves the ball extremely well, however, as each has converted less than 50% of their third downs. 

Both defenses have been lackluster this season, offering up over six yards per play to their opponents. The Lions have been especially bad in the red zone allowing their opponents to score on 75% of RZ drives. 

The teams are pretty evenly matched here, but I think something worth weighing heavily in decisions is the fact that the Lions are coming fresh off a bye week while the Jags are coming home after back-to-back road games. There’s no doubt the Jags will have the more tired legs, and with an extra week of rest, the Lions feel like a safe play here.

Final Prediction: Lions win 30-24

Picks: Lions -3, Under 55

Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (O/U 47.5)

• The Ravens are averaging 29.8 PPG this season.
• The Eagles have allowed 29 PPG this season.
• The Eagles are averaging 22.6 PPG this season.
• The Ravens have allowed just 15.2 PPG this season — fewest in the NFL.
• The Eagles are 1-4 ATS this season.
• The UNDER is 4-1 in games involving the Ravens this season.
• These teams have only played each other five times, dating back to 1997, with their last meeting on 12/18/16.
• The home team has won in each of the last four games between these teams. The fifth game was a tie.
• The OVER has hit in each of the last three games between these teams, but the implied total has never been as high as this game. 
• Ravens QBs have a 103.0 passer rating when scrambling this season — second-best in NFL. The Eagles have allowed a passer rating of 98.3 when the opposing QB was scrambling this season — fourth-worst in NFL.
• The Eagles have run successful plays on 18.0% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — second-worst in NFL. The Ravens have pressured opposing QBs on 34.0% of passing plays this season — fourth-best in NFL.
• The Ravens defense has blitzed on 30% of plays this season — tied for highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%
• The Eagles have turned the ball over 12 times this season — most in NFL. The Ravens have forced 10 turnovers this season — tied for second-most in NFL.
• The Eagles have run 11.0% offensive plays in the red zone this season — fourth-worst in NFL. The Ravens have allowed their opponent to run 7.0% of plays in the red zone this season — best in NFL.
• The Eagles have scored on 33% of their drives this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL. The Ravens defense has allowed scores on 26% of opponent drives this season — best in NFL.
• The Ravens defense has not allowed a TD in the red zone to WRs this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
• Only 36% of the plays run against the Ravens have been in their own territory this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 46%
• Vegas has an implied total of 27.5-20 in favor of the Ravens.
• The public likes the Ravens to win and cover with the over hitting.

The Ravens are coming off a blowout win against the Bengals, where they allowed just three points to Burrow and the kittens. As long as you’re not the Chiefs, you haven’t really been able to touch the Ravens this season. That will likely be true again this week against an Eagles team that probably feels like they’re living the real-life version of the Bill Murray classic, “Groundhog Day.” Same as last season, no one is healthy, and the offense isn’t performing anywhere near its optimal potential.

While the Ravens are still easily one of the top teams in the league, their offense hasn’t performed at the elite level we saw last season. The running game, in particular, has been nowhere near as potent. That’s very evident when comparing these teams side-by-side for this matchup. The Eagles have actually been more successful at converting third downs this season and have scored in the red zone at a higher rate than the Ravens. 

Even defensively, this game is closer on paper than it looks in real life. The Ravens have allowed just 5.0 yards per play this season, but the Eagles aren’t far behind, having just allowed 5.2 yards per play. The Ravens have also been stout on third downs allowing teams to convert just 36.5% of the time, while the Eagles have allowed conversions on 44.9% of the time. The Ravens haven’t been particularly strong in red-zone defense this season, though, allowing teams to convert RZ drives into a score 70% of the time with the Eagles at 73.7%. 

The Eagles are coming home after back-to-back road games, which could easily cause this team some fatigue. They also have actually performed worse at home over the last two seasons compared to on the road. Despite the paper matchup looking close here, these teams don’t particularly feel anywhere close to the same potential caliber of play. The Eagles’ potential to turn the ball over at an incredibly high rate while the Ravens are capable of forcing turnovers at a high rate could be the biggest mismatch affecting the outcome here.

Final Prediction: Ravens win 30-21

Picks: Ravens -7.5, Over 47.5

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-9.5) (O/U 45.5)

• The Broncos are averaging 20.5 PPG overall this season and 29 PPG on the road.
• The Patriots have allowed 23 PPG overall this season and just 15.5 PPG at home.
• The Patriots are averaging 24.2 PPG overall this season and 28.5 PPG at home.
• The Broncos have allowed 24.5 PPG overall this season and 27 PPG on the road.
• The Broncos are 3-1 ATS this season.
• The home team is 7-3 in the last 10 games between these teams.
• The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 games between these teams.
• The winner has also covered the spread in each of the last 10 games between these teams.
• The Broncos have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 37% of pass attempts this season — tied for worst in NFL. The Patriots have pressured opposing QBs on 36.0% of passing plays this season — tied for second-best in NFL.
• The Broncos have scored just 6 TDs in the red zone this season — fourth-fewest in NFL. The Patriots have allowed just 7 TDs when defending in the red zone this season — tied for third-fewest in NFL.
• The Broncos have 3 rushing touchdowns this season — tied for third-fewest in NFL. The Patriots have allowed just 1 rushing TDs this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
• The Patriots have run 20% of their plays in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%
• The Broncos have run successful plays on 36% of plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%
• Vegas has an implied total of 27.5-18 in favor of the Patriots.
• The public likes The Patriots to win and cover with the under hitting.

We’re going to try this game again after it got pushed back. That extra rest time will do wonders for the Broncos as it sounds like QB Drew Lock will be ready to make his return after getting hurt in Week 2. Tight end Noah Fant also sounds like he’s progressing towards returning from injury, which would be an additional boost for the offense while CB A.J Bouye is also getting ready to return on defense. That’s a pretty big swing in talent on both sides of the ball if all are ready for action. The Broncos aren’t the only ones getting healthier with the week off, though, as Cam Newton and Stephon Gilmore are looking to make their return this week as well. This should all make for this to be a much more exciting and competitive matchup as opposed to seeing each team’s B-squad. 

When comparing stats here, it seems like the line may be a touch over-ambitious in favor of the Pats. The Broncos haven’t been able to find their groove amongst the litany of injuries they’ve faced, but with key players coming back to health and a better than advertised defense, this game could be closer than the lines predict. 

On defense, we see a closer matchup than anticipated. Both teams have been stellar when defending on third downs, with each allowing fewer than a 40% conversion rate. The Broncos have actually been more stingy in the red zone, allowing opponents to score on just 46% of RZ drives compared to 58% for the Pats.

With all of these players coming back to health and an extra week of rest, this should be an excellent game to watch, and I think it could be more back and forth than most expect.

Final Prediction: Patriots win 26-21

Picks: Broncos +9.5, Over 45.5

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) (O/U 51)

• The Browns are averaging 31.2 PPG this season.
• The Steelers have allowed 21.8 PPG this season.
• The Steelers are averaging 29.5 PPG this season.
• The Browns have allowed 29.8 PPG overall this season and 38 PPG on the road.
• The Steelers are 3-1 ATS this season.
• The OVER is 4-1 in games involving the Browns this season.
• The OVER is 3-1 in games involving the Steelers this season.
• The Steelers are 8-1-1 over their last 10 games against the Browns.
• The home team is 4-0-1 in the last five games between these teams.
• Steelers WRs have 9 receiving touchdowns this season — second-most in NFL. The Browns have allowed 8 receiving touchdowns to WRs this season — third-most in NFL.
• The Steelers have thrown for 20+ yards on 9 of 143 attempts this season — tied for second-worst in NFL. The Browns allowed 20+ yards on 7.0% of attempts this season — tied for third-best in NFL.
• The Steelers defense has hit opposing QBs on 34% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%
• Baker Mayfield has gained 71% of his total passing yards through the air this season — highest of 34 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 55%
• Browns WRs have averaged 2.3 yards after the catch this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 4.2
• The Browns have rushed for 954 yards this season — most in NFL.
• The Browns defense has forced 12 turnovers this season — most in NFL.
• Vegas has an implied total of 27.2-23.8 in favor of the Steelers.
• The public likes the Steelers to win and cover with the O/U a push.

The Browns have been absolutely surging as of late. They’ve won four games in a row and scored over 30 points in each of those games. The Steelers have been rock-solid as well this season, still sitting unbeaten with a 4-0 record. Between these teams performing at such a high level and the Ravens still a huge threat in their own right, this could be the most tightly-contested division when looking at the fight for the top spot.

When comparing stats for this matchup, we get a mixed bag. On offense, the Browns have a slight edge in yards per play and have also converted red-zone drives into a score at a higher rate. The Steelers even things up a bit with their defense allowing fewer yards per play and a lower red-zone conversion rate. 

We have tons of head-to-head data to go off here between these division rivals, and the Steelers have unsurprisingly had a ton of success as of late against the Browns. This is probably the strongest Browns offense we have seen in the last 10 years, though easily which makes those trends harder to trust. The Browns also got the better of the Steelers once last season, winning 21-7, although that was at home and without Big Ben healthy on the other side.

I was really hoping to find something concrete to help sway this matchup, but it just isn’t there. I know Roethlisberger is notoriously better at home, but this Browns team is pretty fierce right now. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see them pull off a statement upset here on the road.

Final Prediction: Browns win 27-26

Picks: Browns +3.5, Over 51

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-10) (O/U 47)

• The Jets are averaging just 15 PPG — worst in the NFL.
• The Dolphins have allowed 22.6 PPG overall this season and 31 PPG at home.
• The Dolphins are averaging 27.2 PPG.
• The Jets have allowed 32.2 PPG this season.
• The Jets are 0-5 ATS this season and have missed the spread by an average of 10.8 PPG.
• The Jets have an average margin of loss of 17.2 PPG — worst in the NFL.
• The Dolphins are 4-1 in their last five games against the Jets.
• The home team is 7-2 over the last nine games between these teams.
• The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS over their last four games against the Jets.
• The Jets are 0-4 in their last four games in Miami. They haven’t won in Miami since 2014.
• The UNDER is 4-2 over the last six games between these teams.
• The Jets have scored 5.8 points per game in the first half this season — worst in NFL.
• The Jets have scored on 28% of their drives this season — second-worst in NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed scores on 35% of opponent drives this season — sixth-best in NFL.
• The Jets have run 8.0% of their offensive plays in the red zone this season — worst in the NFL. Dolphins have allowed their opponent to run 14.0% of plays in the red zone this season — tied for eighth-best in NFL.
• The Jets have run 35.0% of their offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field this season — worst in NFL. Dolphins have allowed their opponents to run 43.0% of plays in their territory this season — tied for 10th-best in NFL.
• Jets RBs have rushed for one TD on 105 carries this season — worst carries per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 28.5
• The Jets defensive line has missed 17 tackles on 43 opportunities (40%) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 19%
• The Jets defense has allowed opponents to catch 69 of 96 passes (72% Reception Pct) to WRs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 66%
• Vegas has an implied total of 28.5-18.5 in favor of the Dolphins.
• The public likes the Dolphins to win and cover heavily with the under slightly hitting.

I don’t know how much longer this can really go on for the Jets. How is it so obvious to everyone that follows the league that Adam Gase needs to be fired, yet ownership still keeps him around? 

The Dolphins unsurprisingly have the edge offensively and defensively in pretty much every category here. The Jets defense has allowed slightly fewer yards per play, and they’ve allowed opponents to score on 63.2% of red-zone drives compared to 76.5% for the Fins. 

The spread moved a decent amount for this game mid-week as the Dolphins went from -8 to -10. Considering the Jets have failed to cover every game this season and have missed the spread by just over 10 PPG, that is a fair number. They have still lost by an average of 17 PPG this season, which gives you a TD of wiggle room. It’s still kind of hard to trust the Fins with a large spread, but the Jets are pretty hopeless right now. We also have a lot of solid head-to-head data here that supports the outcome.

Final Prediction: Dolphins win 28-17

Picks: Dolphins -10, Under 47

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 55)

• The Packers are averaging 38 PPG this season — most in the NFL.
• The Bucs have allowed 22.4 PPG this season.
• The Bucs are averaging 27.8 PPG overall this season and 34.5 PPG at home.
• The Packers have allowed 25.2 PPG overall this season and 32 PPG on the road.
• The Packers are 4-0 ATS this season.
• The OVER is 3-1 in games involving the Packers this season.
• The actual total has gone over the implied total by an average of 12.4 PPG in games involving the Packers this season — second-most in the NFL.
• The home team is 4-1 over the last five games between these teams.
• The home team is 14-3 in games between these teams dating back to 1998.
• The OVER is 4-1 over the last five games between these teams, but the implied total has never been over 50 points dating back to 1985.
• The Buccaneers defense has not allowed any 20+ yard rushes this season — fewest in NFL.
• The Packers secondary has missed 27 tackles on 106 opportunities (25%) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 15%
• The Packers have allowed a QB Hit on 6% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%
• The Packers defense has allowed a completion pct of 100% (10 completions/10 attempts) on 3rd and long this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%
• Vegas has an implied total of 27.5-27.5 as a true pick’em. 
• The public likes The Packers to win with the over hitting.

This should be one of the season’s best games as two future Hall of Famers square off against each other. This game is a true pick’em with the Packers a slight favorite when looking at moneyline odds. The public is also liking the Packers.

When comparing stats, the Packers do have a pretty significant edge here. They’ve scored the most points in the league this season. They’re averaging a rock-solid 6.8 yards per play compared to just 5.6 for the Bucs and have converted third downs at a higher rate as well. The Bucs have a slight advantage in the red zone, having scored on 72.2% of drives there compared to 65% for GB.

The defense is where we see the Bucs fight back. They’ve allowed a stone-cold 4.9 yards per play to opponents this season and held opponents to just a 38.3 third-down conversion rate. They’ve also allowed opponents to score on fewer red-zone drives at 56% compared to 69% for GB.

The Packers started the season absolutely on fire, but their total has dropped each week. Meanwhile, their defense has allowed at least 30 points at both road games against the Vikings and Saints, while the Bucs have scored over 30 in both of their home games. The Bucs defense also gave up over 30 points at home to both the Panthers and Chargers, though, who are a far cry from the offensive juggernaut that the Packers have been.

This is easily the toughest game to predict of the week. There are a few decent trends regarding the Packers having a hard time stopping their opponent in close and late situations this season. With a strong trend of the home team winning in these matchups and the Packers defense not showing the ability to slow down opponents on the road, that’s enough to sway me into picking the Bucs.

Final Prediction: Bucs win 33-30

Pick: Over 55

LA Rams (-3.5) at SF 49ers (O/U 51.5)

• The Rams are averaging 27.2 PPG overall this season and 33 PPG on the road.
• The 49ers have allowed 22.8 PPG overall this season and 30.7 PPG at home.
• The 49ers are averaging 24.8 PPG overall this season but just 19 PPG at home.
• The Rams have allowed just 18 PPG this season — third-fewest in the NFL.
• 49ers WRs have 96.0 receiving yards per game this season — worst in NFL. The Rams have averaged 133.0 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs this season — best in NFL.
• The 49ers have given up 18 sacks this season — fourth-most in NFL. The Rams have sacked the quarterback 20 times this season — tied for most in NFL.
• The 49ers have thrown for 20+ yards on 11 of 176 attempts this season — tied for second-worst in NFL. The Rams allowed 20+ yards on 6.0% of attempts this season — tied for best in NFL.
• The Rams have run successful plays on 25.0% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL. The 49ers have pressured opposing QBs on 36.0% of passing plays this season — tied for second-best in NFL.
• Jimmy Garoppolo has completed 73.0% of passes (8/11) when under pressure (best) and 58.0% when not under pressure this season (worst).
• Jared Goff has completed passes for 20+ yards on 23 of his 152 total passing attempts (15%) this season — best of 34 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 9%
• The 49ers defense has allowed 5 TDs in the red zone this season — fewest in NFL.
• The Rams defense has tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 113 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) this season. — worst in NFL; League Avg: 11%
• Vegas has an implied total of 27.5-24 in favor of the Rams.
• The public likes the Rams to win and cover with the under hitting.

Aside from a hiccup against the Bills, the Rams have performed better than expected this season, starting with a 4-1 record. The 49ers have been the victims of countless injuries to their star players early this season. They’ve dropped each of their last two games in spots they were easily expected to win against the Eagles and Dolphins, and they didn’t just lose to the Dolphins, they were absolutely destroyed 43-17.

Comparing stats offensively and defensively sides with the Rams in pretty much all important cases. The Niners have allowed a lower red-zone conversion rate (50%) than the Rams (58.8%), but that’s about it.

This one really just comes down to recent form, and the 49ers don’t have it right now. I expect their slide to continue a little longer while the Rams take a crucial win here.

Final Prediction: Rams win 30-21

Picks: Rams -3.5, Under 51.5