Using Advanced Metrics to Find WR Value
Draft day tends to be the favorite day of the year for most fantasy football fans, at least until it’s Week 16 and time to win a championship. As important as the draft is, experienced fantasy managers know that navigating injuries, being proactive on the waiver wire, and researching stats and trends are the best ways to increase their odds of winning.
These days, data and stats are everywhere, but knowing which figures are relevant can be tricky. As those metrics have increased in popularity, they’ve also advanced to the point where they can be overwhelming to casual fans. FantasyData offers some of the most powerful advanced efficiency metrics in the industry and those stats can really give the well-prepared fantasy manager an edge over the competition.
Looking back through the first five weeks of those metrics, here are some interesting wide receiver takeaways that might prove to be helpful as we move into the crucial mid-term period of the 2020 fantasy football season.
Michael Gallup (Dallas Cowboys) – Through the first four games, it seems like Michael Gallup fell behind CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper in the target pecking order but things may have changed with the unfortunate season-ending injury to QB Dak Prescott. With Andy Dalton under center, Gallup caught all 3 of his targets and led the Cowboys in receiving yards (65). That’s a healthy 21.6 yards per reception from the new starting quarterback, which comes as no surprise when you take into consideration Gallup’s performance in air yards per target (10.6), where he leads the NFL among all wideouts with more than 12 targets. Obviously, there will be a drop off for the Dallas passing attack, but Andy Dalton has been a solid QB2 for years and is more than capable of posting QB1 numbers in this offense. If the chemistry Dalton flashed with Gallup in the fourth quarter of Week 5 carries over, Gallup could wind up being the team’s top wideout down the stretch.
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D.J. Chark (Jacksonville Jaguars) – It’s no real surprise to see Chark performing well, as he has opened the season with 14.5 PPR points per game, ranking him firmly inside the top-30 wideouts. But looking at advanced metrics tells us that Chark is playing at a tremendous level and could be about ready to go on a tear with upcoming matchups against subpar secondaries from Detroit, Houston, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Minnesota in the next seven games. Chark is one of a handful of wide receivers to boast a perfect 100% True Catch Rate, with no drops while snagging 18-of-20 targets overall. He’s also one of only three wideouts with more than three contested catches to have come down with every ball. So far, Chark only has one game with more than 4 targets this season, but when those looks increase with that cushy soft upcoming schedule, Chark has weekly WR1 potential.
Chase Claypool (Pittsburgh Steelers) – The whole football world knows about Claypool now, after his breakout, four-score game in Week 5. That performance wouldn’t have happened if Diontae Johnson wasn’t injured, but Claypool is putting up some impressive metrics. The rookie second-rounder ranks fifth among all receivers in cushion (5.04), which shows how much respect he’s afforded from opposing DBs. This isn’t a surprise, as Claypool is a nightmare in downfield coverage situations. He ranks third with a 20.1 yards per catch average, fourth in yards per target (13.1), and second in yards per route (3.53). Unfortunately, the Steelers have a deep and talented receiving corps, so despite the huge Week 5 performance, lack of playing time might be the only thing that can slow this promising rookie.
Marvin Jones (Detroit Lions) – Jones has been a reliable PPR WR3 for years but has started to show some troubling signs of decline. Not only have injuries mounted in the past two seasons, but Jones’ efficiency is dropping off precipitously at age 30, in season nine. For three consecutive years now, Jones’ raw yards per route numbers have declined to the point where he now ranks as the fifth-lowest wideout, ahead of only Dontrelle Inman, A.J. Green, Chris Hogan, and Larry Fitzgerald- none of which have been reliable producers so far.
| YEAR | GAME | TGT | REC | YDS | TD | YDS/ROUTE | RANK |
| 2017 | 16 | 107 | 61 | 1101 | 9 | 1.82 | 23 |
| 2018 | 9 | 62 | 35 | 508 | 5 | 1.71 | 47 |
| 2019 | 11 | 92 | 62 | 779 | 9 | 1.87 | 51 |
| 2020 | 4 | 19 | 12 | 138 | 1 | 0.93 | 89 |
N’Keal Harry (New England Patriots) – One of the bigger surprises I found when navigating through data was that N’Keal Harry is tied with Calvin Ridley, Emmanuel Sanders, and Russell Gage for the NFL lead with 8 red-zone targets. Harry has very quietly seen 28 targets already in only four games for a New England offense that ranks in the bottom-10 in passing. The return of QB Cam Newton should help the offense immensely, and Newton’s running ability should help lead to plenty of end-zone play-action fades to the 6-4, 225-pound sophomore wideout. Not only is Harry built for corner jump-balls, but he is also winning in contested-catch situations, where he’s hauled in 6-of-7 targets. Harry is a darkhorse to lead the Patriots in TD grabs, giving him solid WR3/4 value.
Gabriel Davis (Buffalo Bills) – A 2020 fourth-round rookie, Davis is starting to take advantage of an increase in snaps and is quickly becoming fantasy-relevant for a surprisingly-potent Buffalo offense. Davis has played 79% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps over the past three weeks, including all 72 plays on Monday against Tennessee, where he started in place of John Brown. Davis has responded to the increased playing time by scoring a touchdown or exceeding 55 receiving yards in each of the past four games. Looking at FantasyData’s target separation data, which measures the amount of space a pass-catcher creates away from the nearest defender, Davis ranks third with 2.94 yards of separation. Davis is playing himself into three-wide sets and has some flex appeal should Brown of Diggs miss any more starts.
Travis Fulgham (Philadelphia Eagles) – A former 2019 sixth-round pick by the Lions, Fulgham’s Week 5 outing was one of the biggest surprises in some time. Thrust into the starting lineup, Fulgham reeled in 10-of-13 targets for 152 yards and a touchdown against a shaky Steelers’ secondary. Fulgham now leads all wide receivers in yards per route (3.8) but fantasy managers should proceed with caution as Fulgham’s ascendance could be limited in the next three weeks when Dallas Goedert, Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, and Jalen Reagor could all return to the lineup. He’s certainly worth an aggressive waiver add and start as long as the Eagles’ receiving corps is this banged up, but be aware that this could Fulgham’s target share is likely to take a dramatic hit in the next month.
Mecole Hardman (Kansas City Chiefs) – If you’re looking for a reserve player that offers WR2 upside over the next couple of weeks, Mecole Hardman could be your buy. Hardman only ranks fourth in snaps in Kansas City’s receiving corps, but he has the most big-play potential other than Tyreek Hill. In the two games in which Hardman commanded 4 or more targets, he got into the end-zone in each while causing matchup problems. Hardman ranks ninth in the NFL with 2.63 fantasy points per target–just one spot behind Hill. With Sammy Watkins expected to be sidelined for at least two weeks, Hardman could be about to go off against secondaries from Buffalo and Denver that will have problems combating two perimeter wideouts with that kind of speed.
