NFL Pick’em: Week 7

NFL Pick’em: Week 7

We’re back with another week full of NFL Picks!

For this article, we dig through every game of the Sunday slate to provide the top matchup notes worth knowing with a brief overview and picks for each game. Betting trends are found thanks to Team Rankings with some advanced matchup strength vs. weakness notes provided by Inside Edge. The view of the public here is based on the expert consensus picks at Betting Pros.

You can also find consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 7 of the NFL right here at Fantasy Data. Now, let’s get to the picks!

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Houston Texans (O/U 57.5)

• The Packers are averaging 32.4 PPG this season — third-most in the NFL.
• The Texans have allowed 30.3 PPG this season.
• The Texans are averaging 24.3 PPG this season.
• The Packers have allowed 27.8 PPG overall this season and 34 PPG on the road.
• The Packers are 4-1 ATS this season. 
• The Texans are 1-5 ATS this season.
• The OVER has hit in four-of-six games for the Texans this season.
• The Packers are 3-1 all-time against the Texans.
• The away team is 3-1 all-time in matchups between these teams.
• The UNDER has hit in three-of-four matchups between these teams.
• The Packers are averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season — second-best in NFL. The Texans have allowed 5.7 yards per carry to RBs this season — worst in NFL.
• The Texans defense has allowed 198.3 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 133.9
• The Packers have averaged 429 yards from scrimmage per game this season — third-best in NFL. The Texans have allowed an average of 440.3 yards from scrimmage per game this season — third-worst in the NFL.
• The Packers defense has allowed 13 receptions for 20+ yards this season — tied for fewest in NFL
• The Texans defense have intercepted one of 204 attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43.1
• The Texans have gone three and out on 24% of their drives this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL. Packers have forced three and outs on 27% of opponent drives this season — second-best in NFL.
• The Texans have run successful plays on 58.0% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL. Packers have allowed successful plays on 52.0% of pass attempts this season — tied for ninth-worst in NFL.
• Deshaun Watson has been pressured on 29% of pass attempts this season — tied for highest of 27 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 22%
• Vegas has an implied total of 30.5-27 in favor of the Packers.
• The public likes the Packers to win and cover with the over hitting.

The Packers came fresh off a bye last week but looked a little sleepy as they were beaten down by the Bucs 10-38. They could only muster 201 total yards of offense in the game as Aaron Rodgers uncharacteristically turned the ball over twice. It seems we are starting to see a solid trend forming supporting the Pack being a poor road team this season as they’ve allowed at least 30 points to each of their three opponents on the road.

The Texans have looked rejuvenated after bidding farewell to head coach Bill O’Brien. They’ve put up at least 30 points in each of their last two games without him. They played the Titans tough last week forcing overtime but couldn’t come up with the win. 

The Packers have the edge here offensively and I think we could see them bounce back after last week’s no-show. They’ve converted third downs at a higher rate than the Texans while also scoring on 66.7% of red-zone drives. The Texans aren’t that far behind the Pack in these categories, however, and have the advantage with the Packers playing poorly on the road. The Texans actually have the edge on defense as well having allowed opponents to score on just 57% of RZ drives compared to 76.5% for the Pack. We could easily see a back-and-forth shootout here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Packers get upset for the second straight week, though I don’t know that there is enough here to support that aside from last week’s flop.

Final Prediction: Packers win 31-27

Picks: Packers -3.5, Over 57.5

Cleveland Browns (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (O/U 50.5)

• The Browns are averaging 27.2 PPG overall this season but just 20.7 PPG on the road.
• The Bengals have allowed 26.2 PPG overall this season and just 20.5 PPG at home.
• The Bengals are averaging 21.5 PPG this season.
• The Browns have allowed 31.2 PPG overall this season (third-worst in NFL) and 38 PPG on the road.
• The Bengals are 4-2 ATS this season.
• The OVER has hit in four-of-six games for the Browns this season.
• The OVER is 5-0-1 over the last six games between these teams.
• The Browns are 4-1 over their last five games against the Bengals.
• The Bengals are 8-2 ATS over their last 10 games against the Browns.
• The home team has won each of the last four games between these teams.
• The Browns have rushed the ball on 49.0% of plays from scrimmage this season — highest in NFL. The Bengals have allowed 5.2 yards per carry this season — tied for third-worst in NFL.
• Browns RBs have averaged 3.2 yards after contact per carry this season — best in NFL. The Bengals have allowed 2.7 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — fifth-worst in NFL.
• Bengals RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on 5.0% of carries this season — worst in NFL. The Browns have allowed 10+ yards on 7.0% of carries to RBs this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL.
• Browns QBs have a 18.8 passer rating when their QB was under pressure this season — second-worst in NFL. The Bengals have allowed a passer rating of 29.8 when the opposing QB was under pressure this season — third-best in NFL.
• The Bengals defense has hit opposing QBs on 10% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 16%
• The Browns defense has forced 12 turnovers this season — tied for most in NFL.
• Joe Burrow has been hit 56 times this season — tied for most among NFL QBs.
• Odell Beckham Jr. has averaged 1.5 yards after the catch this season — worst of 69 qualified NFL WRs; League Avg: 4.2
• Vegas has an implied total of 27-23.5 in favor of the Browns.
• The public likes the Browns to win, but the Bengals to cover with the over hitting.

The Browns got absolutely embarrassed by the Steelers last week losing 7-38. It was eerily reminiscent of their Week 1 blow loss to the Ravens where they failed 6-38. Baker Mayfield is banged up right now and playing horribly which could cause us to see more of Case Keenum going forward. 

The Bengals have put up a solid fight most weeks and last week was no different. They once again could not come out ahead though as they lost to the Colts 27-31. 

Neither of these teams have been moving the ball especially well this season. The Browns have averaged 5.6 yards per play which is somehow almost a full yard per play more than the Bengals (4.7). Both have been poor at converting third downs as well as they’re both below 40% there. The Browns have a distinct advantage in the red zone having converted 75% of drives into a score there compared to just 47% for the Bengals. On defense, these teams match up almost identically when it comes to yards per play, third-down conversion rate, and RZ scoring percent to their opponents.

I think a lot of this matchup will come down to recent form. The Browns didn’t have it last week and could struggle further with Baker Mayfield out of sorts and Nick Chubb on the shelf. The Bengals have been one of the more impressive one-win teams this season and I think there could be enough here to see them upset. The matchup between these teams was close in Week 2 with the Browns coming ahead 35-30, but I think we see the opposite this week.

Final Prediction: Bengals win 30-24

Picks: Bengals +3.5, Over 50.5

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-7.5) (O/U 51)

• The Panthers are averaging 23 PPG this season.
• The Saints have allowed 30 PPG this season.
• The Saints are averaging 30.6 PPG this season — fifth-most in the NFL.
• The Panthers have allowed 23.5 PPG this season.
• The OVER has hit in every game for the Saints this season by an average of 10.8 points — most in the NFL.
• The UNDER has hit in each of the last four games for the Panthers.
• The OVER is 8-2 over the last 10 games between these teams.
• The Panthers are 4-1 ATS over their last five games against the Saints.
• The Saints are 7-3 over their last 10 games against the Panthers.
• Saints WRs have 126.2 receiving yards per game this season — fourth-worst in NFL. The Panthers have averaged 132.5 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs this season — tied for best in NFL.
• The Saints defense has allowed 16.3 yards from scrimmage per touch to WRs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12.5
• The Panthers defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 2% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%
• The Panthers defense has allowed first downs on 100% of rush attempts on 3rd and short this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 67%
• Saints RBs have gained 422 yards after the catch this season — most in NFL.
• The Saints defense has allowed an average of 1.4 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 2.2
• Mike Davis has broken 21 tackles this season — most among NFL RBs.
• Vegas has an implied total of 29.2-21.8 in favor of the Saints.
• The public likes the Saints to win and cover with the over hitting.

We get a solid divisional rivalry game here against two teams fighting it out in the middle of the pack in the NFC South. The Saints have scored more points on offense than the Panthers this season, but the Panthers have put together a lot more volume on offense. They rank top eight in the league in total yards, passing yards, and first downs. They’re also top 12 in offensive plays and have the second-most time of possession on offense this season, while the Saints are bottom five in both of those categories. The Saints do have the edge in some key offensive categories, however, such as their third-down conversion rate and red-zone scoring percentage. They have also turned the ball over just four times this season, half as much as the Panthers. 

On defense, the Saints have a pretty strong advantage in most cases. They’ve allowed the second-fewest total yards to their opponents. An area where they have struggled on defense, however, is in the red zone as they’ve allowed their opponents to score on 85% of their red-zone drives.

The Panthers have performed much better than expected this season and strung together three solid wins against the Chargers, Cardinals, and Falcons before losing to the Bears last week. The Saints are coming fresh off a bye week after previously winning in back-to-back games. They needed overtime to knock off the Chargers in their last game, which the Panthers beat on the road 21-16 back in Week 3. 

The Saints feel like the more well-rounded team here and have a solid record of taking care of the Panthers in the past. I think this game could be a lot closer than the odds have it though and love the Panthers to cover.

Final Prediction: Saints win 28-26

Picks: Panthers +7.5, Over 51

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (-1.5) (O/U 50.5)

• The Steelers are averaging 31.2 PPG this season — fourth-most in the NFL.
• The Titans have allowed 25.2 PPG this season.
• The Titans are averaging 32.8 PPG overall this season (second-most in the NFL) and 39 PPG at home.
• The Steelers have allowed just 18.8 PPG this season — third-fewest in the NFL.
• The Steelers are 4-1 ATS this season and have covered by an average of 7.2 PPG — second-most in the NFL.
• The Steelers have an average margin of victory of 12.4 PPG this season — second-highest in the NFL.
• The OVER has hit in four-of-five games for the Titans this season by an average of 10.1 PPG.
• The OVER has hit in three-of-five games for the Steelers this season by an average of 4.9 PPG.
• The OVER has hit in four of the last five games between these teams, but the implied total has never been above 47 points.
• These teams have combined for over 50 points in three of their last five games against each other.
• The Steelers are 5-2 in their last seven games against the Titans.
• The Titans have covered in three of their last four games against the Steelers.
• The Steelers have a third-down conversion rate of 48.0% this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Titans defense has allowed a third-down conversion rate of 58.0% this season — worst in the NFL.
• The Steelers defense has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 6%
• The Steelers defense have forced three and outs on 29% of opponent drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 18%
• Ryan Tannehill has not been intercepted when under pressure this season (33 pass attempts) — tied for best of 33 qualified NFL QBs.
• Ryan Tannehill has a passer rating of 134.6 at home this season — best of 32 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 94.0
• The Titans have scored 18 TDs in the red zone this season — most in NFL.
• The Steelers have allowed 1.4 yards after contact per carry this season — tied for best in NFL. The Titans have allowed 2.8 yards after contact per carry this season — tied for worst in NFL.
• The Steelers defense has allowed 402 yards after the catch this season — fewest in NFL.
• The Steelers defense has sacked opponents 24 times this season — most in NFL.
• The Titans have been sacked on just 3% of pass attempts (5/178) this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 6%
• The Steelers defense has allowed 337 rushing yards this season — fewest in NFL.
• Derrick Henry has rushed for 588 yards this season — most among NFL RBs.
• Vegas has an implied total of 26-24.5 in favor of the Titans.
• The public likes the Steelers to win and cover with the under hitting.

One of these teams is going to walk away with their first loss this season as we get a battle of two teams that have started out 5-0. The Steelers have gotten off to an incredibly strong start this season. It has helped that they have played four of those games at home where Ben Roethlisberger has traditionally played better. The strength of their opponents thus far also has not been all that tough. The Titans have blown away their competition in each of the last two weeks scoring 42 points in both games.

The Titans have the edge in pretty much every offensive category you can imagine here. They’ve scored more points and have accrued more total yards. Both teams have been careful with the ball as well as they’re both top three in fewest offensive turnovers per game. The only meaningful place we see the Steelers ahead on offense is in their time of possession. 

The defense is where we see the Steelers dominate this matchup. They rank top five in fewest points allowed, total yards allowed, first downs, and number of plays to their opponents.

This is a classic matchup of one of the league’s premier offenses facing one of the league’s premier defenses. The fact that the Steelers are on the road for the first time in the last month makes me really wary of their offense showing up as it has at home as of late. The Titans look like a team ready to make another push deep into the playoffs, and I think they make a statement in this game. I’m against the public in every aspect of this game.

Final Prediction: Titans win 30-27

Picks: Titans -1.5, Over 50.5

Buffalo Bills (-12) at New York Jets (O/U 45)

• The Bills are averaging 26 PPG this season.
• The Jets have allowed 30.8 PPG this season.
• The Jets are averaging 12.5 PPG this season — fewest in the NFL.
• The Bills have allowed 28 PPG this season.
• The Jets are 0-6 ATS this season and have missed the spread by an average of 11.3 PPG — worst in the league.
• The OVER is 4-1-1 in games involving the Bills this season.
• The Bills have run 54.0% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — fourth-best in NFL. Jets have allowed their opponents to run 54.0% of plays in their territory this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.
• The Jets have thrown the ball 59.0% of the time in the red zone this season — fifth-highest in NFL. The Bills have allowed 10 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone this season — tied for fourth-most in NFL.
• The Jets’ defensive line have missed 19 tackles on 51 opportunities (37%) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 19%
• The Jets have run 8% of their plays in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 15%
• The Jets have run 29 plays in the red zone this season — fewest in NFL.
• The Jets have run successful plays on 35% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 49%
• The Bills defense has allowed successful plays on 52% of plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%
• The Jets are averaging 11.3 drives per TD this season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 3.9
• Vegas has an implied total of 28.5-16.5 in favor of the Bills.
• The public likes the Bills to win and cover heavily with the under hitting.

I don’t think we really need to dive too deep into any game involving the Jets until they show some sort of signs of life. They can’t even come close to covering a spread so far. The Bills win this in a landslide, I think, as the Jets are the perfect slump buster after Buffalo dropped tough games to the Titans and Chiefs. 

Final Prediction: Bills win 30-10

Picks: Bills -12, Under 45 

Dallas Cowboys (-1) at Washington Football Team (O/U 46)

• The Cowboys are averaging 28.8 PPG overall this season and 24 PPG on the road.
• WFT has allowed 27 PPG this season.
• WFT is averaging 18 PPG this season — third-fewest in the NFL.
• The Cowboys have allowed 36.3 PPG overall this season (most in the NFL) and 29 PPG on the road.
• The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS this season.
• The OVER has hit in four-of-six games for the Cowboys this season and by an average of 10.7 PPG — second-most in the NFL.
• The Cowboys are 8-2 over their last 10 games against WFT.
• The Cowboys are 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games against WFT.
• The OVER is 8-2 over the last 10 games between these teams.
• The Cowboys have averaged 479.0 yards from scrimmage per game this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 379.1
• The Cowboys have committed 15 turnovers this season — most in NFL.
• The Cowboys defense has one interception, and 14 TD passes allowed this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.1
• The WFT have 7 rushing touchdowns in the red zone this season — tied for fifth-most in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed 8 rushing touchdowns in the red zone this season — tied for second-most in NFL.
• The WFT have gone three and out on 29% of their drives this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%
• Vegas has an implied total of 23.5-22.5 in favor of the Cowboys.
• The public likes the Cowboys to win and cover with the over hitting.

One of these sorry teams could very well end up winning the NFC East this season. I get that the Cowboys are a very different football team now without Dak Prescott, but seeing them as basically, a pick’em against WFT just doesn’t feel right. 

The Cowboys have the edge statistically in basically every offensive category as they hang on dearly to the stats that Dak helped them accrue. Where we see the momentum shift here is on defense as the Cowboys have easily been one of the worst in the league this season. Teams have just walked all over them this season, while WFT has been around league average in most categories.

Even with Dallas being a mess on defense, it’s hard to see a team that lacks explosiveness like the WFT takes advantage of a great matchup. There could be some ugly ball here on both sides of the field, making this game tougher to peg than it should be.

Final Prediction: Cowboys win 24-21

Picks; Cowboys -1, Under 46

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (-2) (O/U 55)

• The Lions are averaging 26.6 PPG this season.
• The Falcons have allowed 30.7 PPG this season.
• The Falcons are averaging 27 PPG this season.
• The Lions have allowed 28.6 PPG this season.
• The Falcons are 4-1 over their last five games against the Lions.
• The Falcons are 5-0 ATS over their last five games against the Lions.
• The UNDER is 3-2 over the last five games between these teams.
• The Falcons have run successful plays on 49.0% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — best in NFL. The Lions have pressured opposing QBs on 21.0% of passing plays this season — sixth-worst in NFL.
• The Falcons have run 53.0% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. Lions have allowed their opponents to run 54.0% of plays in their territory this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.
• The Lions have run 20.0% of their offensive plays in the red zone this season — best in the NFL. The Falcons have allowed 17 TDs when defending in the red zone this season — tied for second-most in NFL.
• The Falcons defense has allowed 29 receptions for 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.
• The Falcons have allowed 1,005 yards after the catch this season — most in NFL. The Lions have allowed just 502 yards after the catch this season — second-fewest in NFL.
• Vegas has an implied total of 28.5-26.5 in favor of the Falcons.
• The public likes the Lions to win with the over hitting.

We should get one of the highest totals of the week in this game here as these two dome-dwellers will go head-to-head. When comparing these two teams statistically, I expected things to look a little more mixed on offense, but the Falcons have the edge in basically every category. Their most impressive categories this season are their total yards and number of plays as they rank top three in both of those categories.

Neither defense has been particularly solid here, but the Lions have a slight advantage on that side of the ball. It’s more thanks to the Falcons allowing the most total yards to their opponents this season than the Lions defense really being that good.

Things could be turning around for the Falcons as they managed to pick up their first win of the season last week and put up a season-high 40 points against the Vikings. I think we could definitely see a shootout here with the total pushing over 60 total points, but I actually like the Lions to upset on the road in a close game here.

Final Prediction: Lions win 30-27

Picks: Lions +2, Over 55

San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (-1.5) (O/U 44)

• The 49ers are averaging 24.7 PPG overall this season and 33.5 PPG on the road.
• The Patriots have allowed 22 PPG overall this season but just 16.3 PPG at home.
• The Patriots are averaging 21.8 PPG this season
• The 49ers have allowed 21.7 PPG overall this season and just 11 PPG on the road.
• These teams haven’t met since 11/20/16.
• The away team has won each of the last three games between these teams.
• The Patriots have thrown for 512 passing yards in 3 games at home (170.7 YPG) this season — worst in NFL. The 49ers have allowed 169.0 passing yards per game on the road this season — second-best in NFL.
• The Patriots have thrown the ball 36.0% of the time in the red zone this season — tied for sixth-lowest in NFL. The 49ers have allowed 3 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone this season — fewest in NFL.
• The Patriots defense has allowed 1 rushing TDs this season — fewest in NFL.
• 49ers WRs have averaged 7.4 yards after the catch this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 4.2
• The Patriots defense has allowed 9 of 10 (90%) TDs through the air this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 62%
• Vegas has an implied total of 22.8-21.2 in favor of the Patriots.
• The public likes the 49ers to win slightly with the over hitting.

The 49ers looked like they had regained some of their form last week as Jimmy Garoppolo threw for three TDs. Their losses to the Eagles and Dolphins were incredibly surprising and disappointing, but I think they can put that behind them. The Patriots haven’t regained their own early-season form yet that had made them look like they hadn’t missed a beat without Tom Brady. They’ve been held to 10 and 12 points over their last two games, respectively. 

There are virtually no trends to follow here from either a betting or head-to-head standpoint. Statistically, the Niners have the advantage in almost all categories except rushing yards, surprisingly. On defense, we see the tables turn as the Patriots still boast one of the stronger units in the league. 

This is probably the toughest game to figure out of the week as we have very few leads to follow, and two teams that are capable of performing better than their recent forms would lead us to believe. The 49ers took a step forward last week, and that could be enough to push them over the top here.

Final Prediction: 49ers win 22-20

Picks: 49ers +1.5, Under 44

Kansas City Chiefs (-10) at Denver Broncos (O/U 46)

• The Chiefs are averaging 29.2 PPG this season.
• The Broncos have allowed 22 PPG this season.
• The Broncos are averaging 20 PPG overall this season (fourth-fewest) and just 12 PPG at home.
• The Chiefs have allowed 21.2 PPG this season.
• The Chiefs are 4-2 ATS this season.
• The Broncos are 4-1 ATS this season.
• The UNDER is 4-2 in games involving the Chiefs this season.
• The Chiefs are 9-1 over their last 10 games against the Broncos.
• The Chiefs are 8-2 ATS over their last 10 games against the Broncos.
• The UNDER is 3-0-1 over the last four games between these teams.
• Broncos QBs have a 15.3 passer rating when their QB was under pressure this season — worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed a passer rating of 9.4 when the opposing QB was under pressure this season — best in NFL.
• The Broncos have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 34% of pass attempts this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have pressured opposing QBs on 31.0% of passing plays this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL.
• Vegas has an implied total of 28-18 in favor of the Chiefs.
• The public likes the Chiefs to win and cover with the over hitting.

We get another divisional rivalry here this week from two teams on different paths in the AFC West. The Broncos are fighting for .500 right now after wins against the Jets and Patriots over their last two games. They were happy to welcome back Drew Lock last week, but six field goals are what won the game for them. 

The Chiefs have had some random outcomes this season, like needing overtime to beat the Chargers in Week 2 and losing to the Raiders in Week 5. Despite that, they have a significant edge here in basically all offensive categories. The Broncos have had a stronger defense this season, but nothing that would scare you away from thinking that Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes couldn’t handle them. 

Final Prediction: Chiefs win 30-20

Picks: Over 46

Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5) (O/U 49)

• The Jaguars are averaging 20.8 PPG this season — fifth-fewest in the NFL.
• The Chargers have allowed 25 PPG this season.
• The Chargers are averaging 22 PPG this season.
• The Jaguars have allowed 30.2 PPG this season.
• The Chargers are 4-1 ATS this season.
• The Jags are 2-4 ATS this season.
• The Chargers are 7-1 over their last eight games against the Jags.
• The Chargers are 8-0 ATS over their last eight games against the Jags.
• The OVER is 6-2 over the last eight games between these teams.
• The Jaguars have rushed for just 541 yards this season — fifth-fewest in NFL. The Chargers have allowed just 541 yards rushing this season — sixth-fewest in NFL.
• The Jaguars have 4 rushing touchdowns this season — tied for sixth-fewest in NFL. The Chargers have allowed just 3 rushing TDs this season — tied for second-fewest in NFL.
• The Chargers defense has allowed 8 receptions for 20+ yards to WRs this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
• The Chargers defense has not allowed a rushing TD to an RB this season.
• The Jaguars defense has allowed a Completion Pct of 73% this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 66%
• Justin Herbert has thrown for 8.8 yards per attempt when pressured by defenders this season — best of qualified QBs. The Jaguars have allowed 6.4 yards per attempt when the opposing QB was under pressure this season — second-worst in NFL.
• Vegas has an implied total of 28.2-20.8 in favor of the Chargers.
• The public likes the Chargers to win and cover with the over hitting.

The Chargers have performed better than their record implies so far this season behind rookie QB Justin Herbert. They forced overtime against both the Chiefs and Saints and were within one score of both the Bucs and Panthers in those losses. They’re coming fresh off a bye week to face the Jags, who have lost five in a row and been blown out in each of their last two games.

Statistically, these teams are closer than you would think based on how they have looked on offense. On defense, we see the Chargers carry a stronger advantage.

This could be a bit of a sleepy game as neither offense is particularly explosive, but the Chargers stronger defense makes it a pretty easy game to predict.

Final Prediction: Chargers win 28-20

Picks: Chargers -7.5, Under 49

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (O/U 51.5)

• The Bucs are averaging 29.5 PPG overall this season and 23.3 PPG on the road.
• The Raiders have allowed 30.4 PPG this season.
• The Raiders are averaging 30.2 PPG this season.
• The Bucs have allowed 20.3 PPG this season.
• The OVER is 4-0-1 for the Raiders this season.
• The OVER is 7-0-1 over the last eight games between these teams.
• These teams haven’t met since 10/30/16.
• Buccaneers RBs have averaged 3.0 yards after contact per carry this season — second-best in NFL. The Raiders have allowed 3.3 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — worst in NFL.
• Buccaneers RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on 12.0% of 136 carries this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Raiders have allowed 10+ yards on 14.0% of carries to RBs this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL.
• The Buccaneers have scored 17 TDs in the red zone this season — second-most in NFL. The Raiders have allowed 15 TDs when defending in the red zone this season — tied for ninth-most in NFL.
• Vegas has an implied total of 27.8-23.8 in favor of the Bucs.
• The public likes the Bucs to win and cover with the under hitting.

The Raiders have been one of the bigger surprises of the league this season, especially after knocking off the Chiefs before their bye last week. The Bucs have definitely been a stronger home team this season as opposed to their performances on the road, which adds a little excitement to the matchup here. 

Statistically, the Bucs have the advantage in most categories here, both offensively and defensively. We’ll see if the Raiders have it in them to knock off another one of the top QBs in the league, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Final Prediction: Bucs win 28-26

Picks: Raiders +4, Over 51.5

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals (O/U 56)

• The Seahawks are averaging 33.8 PPG this season — most in the NFL.
• The Cardinals have allowed 18.7 PPG this season — second-fewest in the NFL.
• The Cardinals are averaging 27.7 PPG this season.
• The Seahawks have allowed 27 PPG this season.
• The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS this season.
• The Cardinals are 4-2 ATS this season.
• The UNDER has hit in every game for the Cardinals this season.
• The road team is 8-1-1 over the last 10 games between these teams.
• The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS over their last five games against the Seahawks.
• The Seahawks have a third-down conversion rate of 33.0% this season — second-worst in the NFL. The Cardinals defense has allowed a third-down conversion rate of 36.0% this season — tied for sixth-best in NFL.
• The Seahawks have just 3 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for fourth-fewest in NFL. The Cardinals have allowed just 3 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for fifth-fewest in NFL.
• Vegas has an implied total of 29.8-26.2 in favor of the Seahawks.
• The public likes the Seahawks to win and cover with the over hitting.

We have a solid divisional rivalry game on our hands here. The Cardinals started off strong this season but stumbled unexpectedly against both the Lions and Panthers. They were gifted the Jets and a Cowboys team that just lost Dak in their last two games, which has helped pick them back up a bit. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are unbeaten this season and coming fresh off a bye week.

Statistically, this game is a mixed bag. The Seahawks obviously have the edge in PPG, but the Cards actually hold the edge in total yards (fourth-most), rushing yards (third-most), and first downs (second-most). On defense, we see more conflicting stats as the Cardinals have allowed fewer points but have also faced a few bad teams. 

The stumbles we saw from the Cardinals make it hard to trust them in such a challenging matchup. The Seahawks have also looked like a team ready to make a run at the Super Bowl. I’m with the public on this one.

Final Prediction: Seahawks win 30-27

Picks: Cardinals +3.5, Over 56