NFL Pick’em Week 7: Man vs. Machine

NFL Pick’em Week 7

Week 6 in the NFL was a rough one for some favorites again as we saw plenty of close games an upsets where we thought things would be the opposite. Underdogs went 8-5 ATS and 6-7 straight-up as we saw the Cowboys lose to the Jets, the Texans beat the Chiefs, the 49ers held the Rams to just seven points and the Chargers struggles continued as they lost to the Steelers. We are getting some QB controversy with the Titans and Dolphins as both teams saw their starting QB replaced mid-game. The Dolphins almost got that first elusive win, but at least covered the spread for the first time this season and are a lock for the first overall pick in the draft next season.

As for my battle with the machine last week, artificial intelligence beat out average human intelligence as the machine came away the victor in Week 6. It was a close battle in ATS picks between us as the machine went 9-4 and I went 8-5. I bombed the O/U picks going only 3-10 there as the machine went 5-8. After nailing over 60% of my picks in two of the last three weeks, I fell to 42% (11-15) in Week 6 as the machine registered 54% (14-12). We are now at an even 3-3 record on the season head-to-head, though the machine pulled ahead with the overall season picks record with their win last week sitting at an even 50% (76-76) as I dropped one percent to 48% on the season (79-86). The O/U picks are dragging me down a little this season even though I was above 50% on those in Weeks 4 and 5. I have done well straight up going 53-31-1 (63.1%) there and I am just above 50% in ATS picks at 44-40-1 (52.4%) on the season, both being profitable margins. I need to step it up this week to bring a win back for man!

In case this is your first time reading this column on the season, here is a quick recap of what we are doing with our weekly pick’em column. We have partnered up with the folks over at Betting Antelope who will be providing “the machine” aspect of our weekly pick’em. If you’re unfamiliar with their product, Betting Antelope is an impressive machine learning model powered by SportsData.io and designed to predict moneyline, against the spread, over/under, and total team wins for NFL games. The model ingests data and trains itself each week as the season goes on, optimizing profitability by using a combination of regression and decision tree models to make picks. So this season, it’s my research, opinions, and instincts vs. the machine. It was interesting this week as I was tallying the wins and losses, I could actually feel Betting Antelope’s picks getting smarter. There were a few in there like them taking the Jets +7 that had me raise my eyebrow a bit as I never saw that one coming.

Now that we have recapped the season thus far, let’s take a look at our picks for Week 7!

For more info see FantasyData’s Latest NFL Odds page here.

Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Atlanta Falcons

Matchup Notes:

• Matt Ryan has a 102.7 passer rating this season — sixth-best of qualified QBs.
• Matt Ryan has an 86.9 passer rating in the red zone this season — eighth-lowest of qualified QBs. The Rams have allowed a passer rating of 61.6 when defending in the red zone this season — third-best in NFL.
• Matt Ryan has 1,219 air yards this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — most in NFL.
• Julio Jones has caught 10 contested catches this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — tied for most amongst WRs.
• Austin Hooper has an average target separation of 2.51 yards this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — most amongst TEs.
• The Falcons defense has allowed 423.2 yards from scrimmage per game at home this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 185.9
• The Falcons defense has allowed a passer rating of 137.7 since Week 3 of 2019 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 89.7
• The Falcons defense has allowed 22 TDs this season — most in NFL.
• Jared Goff has completed just 14.3% of passes when scrambling since last season — lowest of 32 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 43.1%
• Jared Goff has had a protection rate of 89.3% this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — third-best in NFL.
• Jared Goff has thrown 13 interceptable passes this season according to FantasyData’s advanced efficiency metrics — tied for second-most.
• Rams WRs have been targeted 166 times this season — most in NFL.
• Rams RBs have gained 81 yards after the catch this season — fewest in NFL.
• The Rams have averaged 25.5 PPG this season.
• The Falcons have allowed an average of 31 PPG this season overall (second-most in NFL) but only 22 PPG at home.
• The Falcons have averaged 22.5 PPG this season overall but just 17 PPG at home.
• The Rams have allowed an average of 25.7 PPG this season overall but only 23.3 PPG on the road.
• The Rams are 4-2 ATS this season.
• The Falcons are 1-5 ATS this season.

These teams are both just a mess right now and desperately need a win to get back on the right track. Luckily one of them will most likely come away with a win this week unless they’re so helpless that the game ends in a tie, which would be really fitting considering how bad things have gone for them both as of late. The Rams had extra time coming off a Thursday night game to prepare for a divisional tilt at home against the 49ers. The Rams answered with Jared Goff throwing for just 78 yards passing and no TDs and the offense totaling just 157 yards on the day. Robert Woods was the only Ram who managed to find the end zone with a rushing score. The Rams were just awful all around and got dominated in time of possession holding the ball for just over 21 minutes in the contest. You would like to say they missed Todd Gurley in this game, but they have missed him all season really as he still hasn’t been himself. The team made some moves heading into this week trading away CB Marcus Peters and gave up three draft picks to acquire Jalen Ramsey from the Jags. This team is more than a quick fix away from turning their season around but luckily get a Falcons defense this week who are amongst the worst in the league right now. The Rams also face the Bengals in Week 8 which gives them a good shot at rebuilding momentum before heading into a Week 9 bye.

The Falcons suffered a tough break last week as they were a Matt Bryant missed kick away from winning their game against the Cardinals. I highlighted here last week how the Falcons have struggled mightily on the road in Arizona historically and that trend stayed true last week. Matt Ryan did all he could really on offense to keep his team in the game as he threw for 356 yards with four TDs and no INTs and both Julio Jones and Austin Hooper went over 100-yards receiving on the day. The defense just couldn’t get it done once again though as Kyler Murray virtually matched Ryan’s production throwing for 340 yards and three TDs. The Falcons defense didn’t record a single sack or even a QB hit in the contest.

Something has to give this week between the Rams struggling offense and the Falcons struggling defense. I am a little surprised to see the Rams as heavy road favorites in this one as the Falcons offense has at least shown some consistency this season and played slightly better at home.

My Final Prediction: Rams win 27-23

My Pick: Rams -3, Under 55

Machine Pick: Rams -3, Over 55

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-16.5)

Matchup Notes:

• The Dolphins have allowed a QB hit on 16.5% of dropbacks this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 8.5%
• The Dolphins defense has allowed a passer rating of 131.0 this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 91.2
• Dolphins WRs have caught just 53 of 106 passes (50.0% Reception Pct) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 62.5%
• DeVante Parker has 15.8 air yards per reception this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — most in NFL.
• Josh Allen has a 110.6 passer rating in the red zone this season — fifth-best amongst QBs. The Dolphins have allowed a passer rating of 117.0 when defending in the red zone this season — second-highest in NFL.
• Frank Gore has seen a stacked box on 40% of his carries this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — second-most in NFL.
• The Bills defense have forced three and outs on 36.7% of opponent drives this season-best in NFL; League Avg: 20.6%
• The Bills defensive line has missed 17 tackles on 40 opportunities (42.5%) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 19.5%
• The Dolphins have averaged just 8.4 PPG this season-worst in NFL.
• The Bills have allowed an average of just 14 PPG this season — fourth-fewest in NFL.
• The Bills have averaged 18 PPG overall this season but just 15.5 PPG at home.
• The Dolphins have allowed an average of 36 PPG this season (most in NFL) and 31 PPG on the road.
• The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS this season.
• The Bills are 4-1 ATS this season.

The Dolphins were so close to getting that first win last week but they lost by one after going for it all at the very end of the game. It was less of an impressive performance by the Dolphins to show that they can actually be competitive in the league still and more of a display that the Redskins are absolutely sinking right now. The Dolphins and the Bengals are now in a fight for the worst team in the league as they’re the only ones without a win still this season. The Dolphins went back to Ryan Fitzpatrick as QB in the game last week after Josh Rosen’s struggles continued. Fitzpatrick really gives this team its best chance to win in my opinion. Neither QB is set up for success but we at least know Fitzpatrick can put up some Jameis Winston-esque ugly volume. The team also got slightly more production at RB with Mark Walton taking over for Kalen Ballage. A win will be hard to come by this week in a divisional tilt with the 4-1 Bills who are fresh off a bye and playing at home. A really interesting scenario that could unfold here is both the Dolphins and Bengals continue floundering all season and neither team gets a win until they face each other in Week 16.

As mentioned, The Bills are fresh off their bye and have to be pretty happy with the start of their season. Their only loss so far has come against the undefeated Patriots, but even in that matchup they held the Pats to only 16 points. That is the only game all season where the Pats put up less than 30 points in a game. That speaks volumes regarding how strong the Bills defense is and how it can carry the team to wins even if the offense sputters. The Bills are in a good spot to put up a season-high in total points this week against the Dolphins who are playing to lose. 

My Final Prediction: Bills win 27-6

My Pick: Bills -16.5, Under 40.5

Machine Pick: Dolphins +16.5, Under 40.5

Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) at Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup Notes:

• The Bengals defense has allowed 1,118 rushing yards this season — most in NFL.
• The Bengals have faced a blitz 24.4% of the time this season — second-highest in NFL; League Avg: 16.8%
• Andy Dalton has been sacked 22 times this season — third-most among NFL QBs.
• Joe Mixon has 3.4 yards per carry this season — fifth-lowest of qualified RBs. The Jaguars have allowed 5.4 yards per carry to RBs this season — highest in NFL.
• Tyler Eifert has five contested catches this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — most amongst TEs.
• Gardner Minshew has a 125.6 passer rating in the red zone this season — best of qualified QBs.
• Leonard Fournette has averaged 3.9 yards after contact per carry this season-best of 32 qualified RBs; League Avg: 2.3
• Leonard Fournette has 141 touches this season — 2nd most among NFL RBs
• The Jaguars defensive line has missed 23 tackles this season — most in NFL.
• The Jaguars defense has just one interception this season.
• The Jaguars have averaged 19.5 PPG this season overall but 21.7 PPG on the road.
• The Bengals have allowed an average of 26.5 PPG overall this season but allow 33.5 PPG at home.
• The Bengals have averaged 16.2 PPG this season (fourth-fewest in NFL) but average 20 PPG at home.
• The Jaguars have allowed an average of 21.8 PPG overall this season but allow 23.7 PPG on the road.
• Both teams are 3-3 ATS this season.

For the first time all season, Gardner Minshew looked like a backup quarterback last week as the Jags only managed to put six points on the board in their loss to the Saints. Minshew threw for just 163 yards in the contest and though Leonard Fournette carried the ball 20 times, he only managed 72 yards on the ground. Fournette did finish second on the team with an additional 46 yards receiving, putting him over 100 yards from scrimmage on the day. The silver lining of the day was the Jags defense holding the Saints to just 13 points and containing their explosive running game fairly well. That’s also partially due to the fact that Alvin Kamara was not 100% coming into the game, however. The Jags have now dropped two in a row but are in a prime spot to bounce back against the winless Bengals.

As mentioned in the blurb about the Dolphins, we now have a two-way battle for the worst team in the league. The Bengals haven’t had their bye yet, so they could technically be seen as the worst right now at 0-6 while the ‘Phins are 0-5. Nothing has gone right for the Bengals this season and their offensive line has been amongst the worst in the league. Joe Mixon is trapped averaging just 3.4 YPA this season and defenses know if they shut down Tyler Boyd, they basically shut down the passing game right now as well. If the Saints could only put up 13 against the Jags last week it’s really hard to say that the Bengals can do better though they have scored at least 17 points in five of six games.

My Final Prediction: Jaguars win 26-17

My Pick: Jaguars -4, Under 44.5

Machine Pick: Jaguars -4, Over 44.5

Minnesota Vikings (-2) at Detroit Lions

Matchup Notes:

• Kirk Cousins has a 108.4 passer rating this season — third-best of qualified QBs. The Lions have allowed a passer rating of 82.2 this season — seventh-best in NFL.
• Kirk Cousins has had a protection rate of 90.2% this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — second-best in NFL.
• Xavier Rhodes (MIN) has allowed 32 completions this season — tied for second-most among NFL defensive backs.
• Trae Waynes (MIN) has allowed 33 completions this season — most among NFL defensive backs.
• The Vikings defense has allowed one rushing TD on 145 carries this season-best in NFL.
• Vikings RBs have rushed for 897 yards this season — most in NFL.
• Dalvin Cook has created 265 yards this season according to FantasyData’s advanced efficiency metrics — second-most in NFL.
• Vikings WRs have averaged 5.2 yards after the catch this season — third-best in NFL. The Lions have allowed 2.7 yards after catch per reception to WRs this season — second-best in NFL.
• Matthew Stafford has thrown deep balls on 20.8% of pass attempts this season — highest of 27 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 12.0%
• Lions RBs have been stuffed nine times in short-yardage situations this season — tied for most in NFL.
• The Lions defense has allowed six TDs in close and late situations this season — most in NFL.
• The Vikings have averaged 25 PPG overall this season but just 16.7 PPG on the road.
• The Lions have allowed an average of 23.6 PPG overall this season.
• The Lions have averaged 23.8 PPG overall this season.
• The Vikings have allowed an average of 15.5 PPG overall this season.
• The Vikings are 4-2 ATS this season.
• The Lions are 4-1 ATS this season.

We get another tough divisional matchup here. For the Lions, it’s their second divisional tilt in as many weeks as they come off a devastating loss to the Packers on Monday Night Football. The Lions should’ve won that game honestly but the Pack got a little help from the NFL’s awesome officiating crew. The Lions are easily the best last-place team in the league right now in what is probably the most closely contested division in the league. Every game has been a nail biter for the Lions this season as no game has been decided by more than four points. This week will be enough close one against a tough Vikings defense, but at least the Lions get home-field advantage and the Vikes haven’t been quite as strong on the road this season.

After it looked like the sky was falling in Minnesota through the first four games of the season, the offense has really turned it around and strung together back-to-back wins with a more pass-heavy attack. Now that they remembered that they can air it out and boast one of the best wide receiver duos in the league, the Vikes suddenly have one of the most well-rounded offenses in the league as even backup RB Alexander Mattison has made his mark. The defense has continued it’s solid play as well as they have only let their opponent over 20 points once against the Packers in Week 2, and even that was only a 21 point performance. This matchup really does come down to a 50/50 pick’em. The Vikes stronger defense and current momentum give them a slight edge for me despite them being on the road.

My Final Prediction: Vikings win 23-20

My Pick: Vikings -2, Under 44

Machine Pick: Lions +2, Under 44

Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

Matchup Notes:

• Derek Carr has completed 73.3% of passes (118 completions/161 net pass attempts) this season — best of 27 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 64.8%
• Raiders WRs have averaged just 88.2 receiving yards per game this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 161.7
• The Raiders defense has not forced any fumbles (119 carries) this season.
• Aaron Rodgers has not been intercepted (47 pass attempts) when under pressure this season.
• Aaron Rodgers has a 72.5 passer rating in the red zone this season — second-lowest of qualified QBs. The Raiders have allowed a passer rating of 110.4 when defending in the red zone this season — fourth-highest in NFL.
• Aaron Jones has averaged 1.3 yards after contact per carry this season — tied for second-lowest of 32 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 2.3
• The Packers defense has allowed 6.5 yards after the catch to WRs this season — second-highest in NFL; League Avg: 4.3
• The Raiders have averaged 20.6 PPG overall this season.
• The Packers have allowed 19.2 PPG overall this season but allow 22 PPG at home.
• The Packers have averaged 23.7 PPG this season.
• The Raiders have allowed 24.6 PPG this season.
• The Raiders are 3-2 ATS this season.
• The Packers are 4-2 ATS this season.

This game feels a lot closer than it should with the Raiders’ last two performances being a bit of a surprise. They knocked off the Bears elite defense in London and beat the Colts in Indy in the game before that. Now fresh off a Week 6 bye, the Raiders travel again to take on the Packers at Lambeau Field. The Raiders offense has been a patchwork unit but has somehow gotten it done. They lost Antonio Brown’s craziness before the season and Tyrell Williams has been out of action dealing with foot problems that don’t sound like they’re going away. Luckily, rookie RB Josh Jacobs has stepped up in the meantime and the team also recently traded for former Bills WR Zay Jones. Their recent success has defied logic, to be honest, so it is hard to know what to expect from them in this matchup.

The Packers stole a win from the Lions last week on Monday Night Football and are now sitting at 5-1 on the season with their only loss coming against the Eagles. It has been an honest team effort for the Pack this season as it seems someone new steps up each week to carry the team to a win. The defense looked lights out to begin the season but has looked more average in the last three weeks. Aaron Jones had a standout performance in Week 5 but took a backseat to Jamaal Williams last week. Davante Adams stepped up when healthy but the team has definitely missed him the last two games and it doesn’t look like he will be ready to come back this week. That would certainly help make me feel more comfortable about the prospects of the Pack covering this one. In fact, all the top pass catchers for the Packers are banged up and missing practice this week. If they are completely depleted come game time this could become more of a straight-up win for the Raiders. It’s anyone’s guess who steps up this week, but the chances are good that someone can make a mark against the Raiders vulnerable defense. I have pretty much stopped betting on the Raiders overall since they seem to burn me every time.

My Final Prediction: Packers win 27-24

My Pick: Raiders +4.5, Over 47

Machine Pick: Raiders +4.5, Over 47

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1)

Matchup Notes:

• Deshaun Watson has a 107.9 passer rating this season — fourth-best of qualified QBs. The Colts have allowed a passer rating of 108.0 this season — fourth-highest in NFL.
• The Texans defense has forced 10 fumbles this season — most in NFL.
• The Texans defense has allowed 161 completions this season — most in NFL.
• The Texans defense has allowed 67 receiving yards per game to RBs this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 42.7
• Jacoby Brissett has not been sacked against the blitz this season (32 pass attempts).
• Marlon Mack has averaged 20.2 carries per game this season — second-highest among NFL RBs.
• Marlon Mack has 46.6 yards created per game this season according to FantasyData’s advanced efficiency metrics — most in NFL.
• Colts WRs have caught seven TD passes in the red zone this season — most in NFL. The Texans defense has allowed nine TD passes in the red zone this season — tied for second-most in NFL.
• The Colts defense has allowed rushes of 10+ yards on 19 of 108 carries (17.6%) this season — second-highest in NFL; League Avg: 11.7%
• The Texans have averaged 27 PPG this season.
• The Colts have allowed 23 PPG this season overall but allow 27.5 PPG at home.
• The Colts have averaged 22.6 PPG this season but average 25.5 PPG at home.
• The Texans have allowed 22.3 PPG this season overall but allow 24.7 PPG on the road.
• The Texans are 4-2 ATS this season.
• The Colts are 3-1-1 ATS this season.

Divisions really have a chance of getting shaken up this week with another tilt on our hands here between the Texans and Colts. The Texans are coming in red hot as one of the more impressive teams over the last two weeks of action. After a total beatdown of the Falcons in Week 5, the Texans also traveled to KC and upset the Chiefs by a score of 31-24. You could say the Texans haven’t even truly reached their full potential yet this season either with star wideout DeAndre Hopkins having rather quiet performances this season by his standards. Deshaun Watson continues to show the ability to do it all himself but even he has left some big plays on the field with slight accuracy issues on downfield passes. The running game has also looked rejuvenated without Lamar Miller as the combination of Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson has been more than serviceable. 

The Colts are coming fresh off a bye week but also upset the Chiefs in their last performance at KC. It has been hard to peg where this offense sits as they also lost to the Raiders at home the week before that. The bye couldn’t have come at a better time for the Colts though as it gave both TY Hilton and Marlon Mack a chance to nurse their respective injuries. The Texans have completely shut down the opposing team’s running game the last four weeks, and especially over their last two games as they’ve been running away with the lead in each contest. If the Colts want a chance to knock off their division rival they really need to get the passing game going early, which hasn’t exactly been a strong suit of Jacoby Brissett’s this season though he has been a solid game manager. I just don’t know that the Colts can keep up with the Texans right now but with it being a division game I expect it to stay close.

My Final Prediction: Texans win 28-26

My Pick: Texans +1, Over 47.5

Machine Pick: Texans +1, Over 47.5

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (-3)

Matchup Notes:

• The Cardinals WRs have 101 receptions this season — tied for most in NFL.
• David Johnson has averaged 5.8 yards from scrimmage per touch this season — tied for fourth-best of 32 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 5.0
• The Cardinals defense has no interceptions this season.
• The Cardinals defense has allowed 16 TD passes this season — most in NFL.
• The Cardinals defense has forced nine fumbles this season — tied for second-most in NFL.
• The Cardinals defense has allowed 1,687 passing yards this season — third-most in NFL
• The Giants defense has allowed 1,710 passing yards this season — second-most in NFL.
• The Giants have committed 15 turnovers this season — most in NFL.
• Daniel Jones has a 74.1 passer rating this season — second-lowest of qualified QBs. The Cardinals defense has allowed a passer rating of 121.8 this season — second-highest in NFL; League Avg: 91.2
• Daniel Jones has committed nine turnovers on 165 plays (5.5% turnover percentage) this season — highest of 27 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 2.7%
• Evan Engram has seen eight red-zone targets this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — tied for most amongst TEs.
• The Cardinals have averaged 22.3 PPG this season.
• The Giants have allowed 26.7 PPG overall this season but just 19.7 PPG at home.
• The Giants have averaged 18.5 PPG this season.
• The Cardinals have allowed 28.5 PPG overall this season (fourth-most in NFL) but just 23 PPG on the road.
• The Cardinals are 2-3-1 ATS this season.
• The Giants are 2-4 ATS this season.

This has been the toughest game for me to predict this week as I have flip-flopped on my pick about 20 times. I really wanted to pick the Cardinals to win straight up against the Falcons last week but didn’t have the cojones to pull the trigger. The Cards have come into form somewhat the last two weeks with back-to-back wins against the Bengals and Falcons. Both teams offered vulnerable defenses that were easily exploitable. The same could be said about their matchup this week against the Giants, though they have been better at home. The problem I have in taking the Cards though is that it really sounds like both Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram will be back healthy for the Giants which could be a big problem for the Cards whose defense has been equally unimpressive, especially against tight ends.

As mentioned above, the Giants are coming to full strength just in time for an exploitable matchup against the Cards weak secondary. Daniel Jones has looked lost the last few weeks but given the talent he has had to work with during that time, it is understandable. If they do in fact have Saquon and Engram back, this becomes a lot less of a closs game in my opinion, especially with them having home-field advantage. Their defense has allowed at least 28 points in all but one game this season (Redskins), however, which could lose the game for them even if the offense rebounds.

My Final Prediction: Giants win 28-27

My Pick: Cardinals +3, Over 50.5

Machine Pick: Cardinals +3, Over 50.5

San Francisco 49ers (-9) at Washington Redskins 

Matchup Notes:

• The 49ers have run the ball on 53.2% of plays this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 39.6%
• 49ers RBs have averaged 10.7 yards after the catch this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 7.8
• Matt Breida has averaged 3.6 yards before contact per carry this season — best of 32 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 2.0
• Jimmy Garoppolo has completed seven of his 10 total passing attempts (70%) when attempting a pass of 20+ yards this season — best of 33 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 37.7%
• Jimmy Garoppolo has a 55.9% pressured completion percentage this season — best in NFL.
• Marquise Goodwin has seen 9.7 air yards per target this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — most in NFL.
• The 49ers defense has allowed 751 passing yards this season — fewest in NFL.
• The 49ers defense has allowed six TDs this season — second-fewest in NFL.
• Redskins WRs have averaged 2.7 yards after the catch this season — second-lowest in NFL. The 49ers defense has allowed 7.0 yards after the catch to WRs this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 4.3
• Case Keenum has a 116.7 passer rating in the red zone this season — third-best of qualified QBs. The 49ers have allowed a passer rating of 76.9 when defending in the red zone this season — eighth-best in NFL.
• Case Keenum’s targets have had an average separation of 2.31 yards this season according to FantasyData’s advanced efficiency metrics — most in NFL.
• The Redskins defense has allowed 14 TD passes this season — tied for third-most in NFL.
• The 49ers have averaged 29.4 PPG this season — third-most in NFL.
• The Redskins have allowed 27.8 PPG overall this season (fifth-most in NFL) and allow 31.7 PPG at home.
• The Redskins have averaged 15 PPG this season — third-fewest in NFL.
• The 49ers have allowed just 12.8 PPG this season — second-fewest in NFL.
• The 49ers are 4-1 ATS this season.
• The Redskins are 1-5 ATS this season.

If you’re still alive in a survivor pool and haven’t picked the 49ers yet, this is the easiest pick you’ll probably make all season. The 49ers look like one of the most impressive teams in the league right now but a solid running game and a defense that could even give their teams from the 2011-2013 period a run for their money. The Niners completely embarrassed their division foe last week holding the Rams to just seven points at home. Jared Goff threw for less than 100 yards in the game and SF just dominated in all aspects of the game. Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t been asked to do much this season and that should probably stay the same here this week in a game they will be able to just run all day against the helpless Redskins.

The ‘Skins are lucky to have come away with their first win last week as the Dolphins have more the gain from losing than winning at this point already in the season. Arguably one of the worst run teams in the league, the Redskins have no chance in this game and I wouldn’t be surprised if they are completely shut out in the contest. Terry McLaurin is the lone bright spot on offense right now but even he will likely be smothered by coverage forcing the Redskins to try and beat the 49ers on the ground which won’t happen especially with passing-down specialist Chris Thompson dealing with turf toe. It’s going to be a long day in the nation’s capital. I feel like I’m missing something on this one though, I don’t know how the machine thinks the Redskins can cover nine points.

My Final Prediction: 49ers win 33-6

My Pick: 49ers -9, Under 41

Machine Pick: Redskins +9, Over 41

Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)

Matchup Notes:

• Chargers RBs have gained 483 yards after the catch this season — most in NFL.
• Philip Rivers has not thrown any TDs on 44 pass attempts in close and late situations this season — tied for highest of 26 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 23.0 attempts per TD
• Keenan Allen has 470 total air yards this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — most amongst WRs.
• The Chargers have committed four turnovers in the red zone this season — most in NFL.
• Chargers linebackers have missed 27 tackles this season — most in NFL.
• The Titans have been sacked on 14.2% of pass attempts this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 6.6%
• The Titans defense has allowed an average of 3.1 yards after contact per carry this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 2.1
• Titans linebackers have missed 24 tackles this season — third-most in NFL.
• The Titans have committed three turnovers this season — fewest in NFL.
• Titans RBs have dropped six balls this season — most in NFL.
• The Chargers have averaged 20 PPG this season.
• The Titans have allowed 15.3 PPG this season.
• The Titans have averaged 16.3 PPG this season but just 12 PPG at home.
• The Chargers have allowed 19.7 PPG overall this season but just 11.5 PPG on the road.
• The Chargers are 1-4-1 ATS this season.
• The Titans are 2-4 ATS this season.

The Chargers are one of the most confusing teams in the league right now as they just can’t get right. They have a quality QB in Philip Rivers, a stud WR1 in Keenan Allen, and an incredibly talented duo at RB with Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler. They even got a huge threat back last week in TE Hunter Henry. Yet, they can’t knock off a Joe Flacco-led Broncos team at home in Week 5 or a Steelers team trotting out their third-string QB last week also at home!? And when you look at their body of work on the season as a whole, they barely escaped with a win in OT in Week 1 against the Colts making their only legitimately “impressive” win being a game against the Dolphins. This is a hard team to trust going forward but they have the talent on their roster and luckily they face an equally frustrating team to peg this week in the Titans.

The Titans have gotten solid performances from their defense this season holding all opponents under 21 points. The problem is the offense just can’t keep it together most weeks. They have scored a total of seven points in the last two weeks combined. Their points for average is completely inflated due to their random 43-point outburst against the Browns back in Week 1. Last week things got even murkier as the team benched Marcus Mariota for the likes of Ryan Tannehill who is looking like your starter this week as well. Mike Vrabel has lost confidence in both himself and his team and it shows.

Both of these teams are a mess right now like two awkward teenagers trying to find themselves which could lead to either a random high-scoring affair or a complete dud. I will bank on a low-scoring game and despite their struggles, the Chargers offer more on offense right now. The outcome of this game could vary so wildly though that I don’t feel confident about any picks here. 

My Final Prediction: Chargers win 17-14

My Pick: Chargers +2.5, Under 41

Machine Pick: Titans -2.5, Under 41

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (-3.5)

Matchup Notes:

• Teddy Bridgewater has a passer rating of 138.2 against the blitz this season (23 pass attempts) — best of 35 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 90.0
• Alvin Kamara has broken 28 tackles this season — most among NFL RBs.
• Michael Thomas (NO) has 105.3 receiving yards per game this season — second-best of qualified WRs. The Bears have averaged 138.0 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs this season — seventh-best in NFL.
• The Saints defense has allowed 12.7 yards from scrimmage per touch in close and late situations this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 7.2
• Offenses facing the Bears have thrown deep balls on just 5.2% of pass attempts this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 12.0%
• Bears QBs have 927 passing yards this season — third-fewest in NFL.
• Allen Robinson has caught 10 contested catches this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — tied for most amongst WRs.
• Bears RBs have averaged 1.2 yards after contact per carry this season — tied for lowest in NFL; League Avg: 2.3
• Bears RBs have averaged just 3.0 yards per carry this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 4.3
• Tarik Cohen has seen a light box on 82.4% of his carries according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — most in NFL.
• The Bears defense has pressured opposing QBs on 21.9% of dropbacks this season-best in NFL; League Avg: 14.3%
• The Bears defense has allowed rushes of 10+ yards on just seven of 119 carries (5.9%) this season-best in NFL; League Avg: 11.7%
• The Saints have averaged 21.3 PPG overall this season but just 18.3 PPG on the road.
• The Bears have allowed 13.8 PPG overall this season (third-fewest in NFL) but allow only 8 PPG at home.
• The Bears have averaged 17.4 PPG overall this season but just 9.5 PPG at home.
• The Saints have allowed 20.3 PPG this season.
• The Saints are 4-2 ATS this season.
• The Bears are 2-3 ATS this season.

This is another game that is tough to peg based on the way these teams have played lately. The Saints came away with the win against the Jags last week but only put 13 points on the board. They have had bipolar results all season as they have either put up less than 14 points or over 30 points in each game this season and there doesn’t seem to be any rhyme or reason to their successes or struggles. Teddy Bridgewater has been an average fill in while Drew Brees has been out but what will likely make this team struggle this week is the potential of not having Alvin Kamara either at all or anywhere near 100%. Michael Thomas is great but he can’t do it all and with the Bears defense being stronger at home I doubt Latavius Murray would be able to find room to run if he gets entended action this week. 

The Bears are coming fresh off a bye week and might be getting Mitch Trubisky back under center. It’s hard to say that will offer much of an improvement on offense, however, based on his early-season play. The Bears last dropped that disappointing loss to the Raiders in London but will be looking to get back on track on this one at home. Their defense has been great at home this season and both games were tough divisional matchups. Even though they lost to the Packers in Week 1, they held them to only 10 points. Then they held the Vikings to only six points at home in Week 4. The Saints defense has also been strong in recent weeks and helped carry their team when the offense couldn’t pull through which gives this the looks of a low-scoring defensive struggle. I’m betting on the Bears D bouncing back after getting embarrassed across the pond.

My Final Prediction: Bears win 14-10

My Pick: Bears -3.5, Under 38.5

Machine Pick: Bears -3.5, Under 38.5

Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks (-3)

Matchup Notes:

• Ravens TEs have 666 receiving yards this season — most in NFL.
• The Ravens have run 440 plays this season — most in NFL.
• The Ravens have scored on 52.3% of their drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34.8%
• Mark Ingram has averaged 3.1 yards after contact per carry this season — second-best of 32 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 2.3
• Mark Ingram has a 50% juke rate this season according to FantasyData’s advanced efficiency metrics — best in NFL.
• Lamar Jackson has rushed for 467 yards this season — most among NFL QBs.
• The Ravens have rushed for 1,238 yards this season — most in NFL.
• The Ravens defense has allowed 9.1 yards from scrimmage per touch this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 7.6
• The Ravens defense has blitzed on 32.0% of plays this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 16.8%
• The Ravens defense has allowed 9.2 yards per carry in close and late situations this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 4.6
• Russell Wilson has a passer rating of 124.7 this season — best of 27 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 91.4
• Russell Wilson has not been intercepted this season.
• Chris Carson has broken 20 tackles this season — second-most among NFL RBs.
• Seahawks WRs have been targeted 22 times in the red zone this season — most in NFL.
• The Ravens have averaged 30.7 overall PPG this season (second-most in NFL) and 37.7 PPG on the road.
• The Seahawks have allowed 24.3 PPG this season overall but allow 27.3 PPG at home.
• The Seahawks have averaged 27.5 PPG this season.
• The Ravens have allowed 23.3 PPG this season.
• The Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS this season.
• The Seahawks are 3-3 ATS this season.

The Ravens are coming into this game having won their last two games and sit with a comfortable two-game lead in the AFC North. Though they have found themselves on the winning end the last few weeks, their performances have been far from dominant. They needed overtime to beat the Steelers in Week 5 who were down to their third-string QB in the game then only beat out the winless Bengals last week by six points. Lamar Jackson has regressed after his early-season success and the Ravens defense is not what it once was. They picked up Marcus Peters on defense from the Rams who they hope can help them out in the secondary. Rookie Marquise Brown has been missing from the lineup on offense which has taken some spark out of the passing game.

The Seahawks are riding a three-game winning streak into this matchup and have only dropped one game all season back in Week 3 against the Saints. Even in that matchup they still managed to put up 27 points and they have stayed closer to the 30 point mark in every game except for Week 1. Russell Wilson has been playing at an MVP-caliber level this season and has been relied on heavily as the defense hasn’t been much help this season. It will be interesting to see if the defense can slow a struggling Ravens offense this week as two of the most run-heavy in the leagues will do battle.

My Final Prediction: Seahawks win 28-26

My Pick: Ravens +3, Over 49

Machine Pick: Ravens +3, Over 49

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)

Matchup Notes:

• The Eagles defense has tackled opponents for a loss on 26 of 128 rushing attempts (20.3% TFL%) this season. — best in NFL; League Avg: 11.8%
• Miles Sanders has averaged 12.2 yards per target this season — best of 34 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 6.2
• Zach Ertz has been targeted 54 times this season — most among NFL TEs.
• Carson Wentz has not been sacked against the blitz this season (64 pass attempts) — tied for best of 35 qualified NFL QBs
• Dak Prescott has not been sacked against the blitz this season (50 pass attempts) — tied for best of 35 qualified NFL QBs
• Dak Prescott has averaged 5.7 air yards per attempt with a 56.2% deep ball completion percentage this season according to FantasyData’s advanced metrics — best amongst QBs.
• Cowboys WRs have dropped 12 balls this season — most in NFL.
• Cowboys WRs have averaged 226.8 receiving yards per game this season-best in NFL. The Eagles have averaged 202.3 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs this season — third-highest in NFL.
• Ezekiel Elliott has averaged 4.5 touches per game in the red zone this season — highest of qualified RBs.
• The Eagles have averaged 26.8 PPG this season.
• The Cowboys have allowed 19 PPG this season.
• The Cowboys have averaged 25.5 PPG overall this season but average 30 PPG at home.
• The Eagles have allowed 24.8 PPG overall this season but allow 29.7 PPG on the road.
• The Eagles are 2-4 ATS this season.
• The Cowboys are 3-3 ATS this season.

Another divisional tilt is on the docket here and this is a heavy one! These two teams do not like each other and both are sharing the top spot in the NFC East right now at 3-3 on the season. After starting the season 3-0, the Cowboys have now dropped three straight with their most recent loss being an especially disappointing performance against the Jets. The passing game struggled last week as Amari Cooper left the game early with an injury and the better-than-expected Jets defense kept the Cowboys in check while the Jets offense was reborn with Sam Darnold healthy. The Cowboys would love to have Cooper healthy this week against the Eagles blatant pass-funnel defense rather than crash Zeke into brick walls up front all day.

The Eagles started their three-week road trip off on the wrong foot last week as they lost to the Vikings 20-38. That was easily the most points their defense has given up all season and it negated the fact that their offense managed to put up 20 points against a tough Vikings defense. That was the second-most points the Vikes had allowed all season. The Cowboys defense has had its moments this season like when they held the Saints to only 12 points in Week 4, but as we saw last week with the Jets, they can also be exploited and the Eagles are a much more capable offense right now to potentially get this done. It all really comes down to the defense not completely giving up the game to where the offense can’t compete. I see this game being really close but at the end of the day, you just can’t bet on the Eagles defense.

My Final Prediction: Cowboys win 27-24

My Pick: Cowboys -2.5, Over 49

Machine Pick: Eagles +2.5, Under 49

New England Patriots (-9.5) at New York Jets

Matchup Notes:

• The Patriots defense has allowed just one passing TD this season — best in NFL.
• The Patriots defense has allowed a passer rating of just 42.6 this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 91.2
• The Patriots defense has allowed 260.8 yards from scrimmage per game this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 370.0
• The Patriots defense has 14 interceptions this season — most in NFL.
• Tom Brady has 11 completions for 20+ yards against the blitz this season — tied for most among NFL QBs.
• Patriots RBs have averaged 78.7 receiving yards per game this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42.7
• Sony Michel has averaged 1.2 yards after contact per carry this season — lowest of 32 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 2.3
• Le’Veon Bell has broken 18 tackles this season — third-most among NFL RBs.
• The Jets have been sacked on 14.1% of pass attempts this season — second-highest in NFL; League Avg: 6.6%
• The Jets have scored on 11.7% of their drives this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 34.8%
• The Jets have gone three and out on 36.7% of their drives this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 20.6%
• The Jets have run 281 plays this season — fewest in NFL.
• The Patriots have averaged 31.7 PPG this season — most in NFL.
• The Jets have allowed 24.6 PPG overall this season but just 20.7 PPG at home.
• The Jets have averaged 12.6 PPG this season — second-fewest in NFL.
• The Patriots have allowed 8 PPG overall this season (fewest in NFL) and just 5.7 PPG on the road. 
• The Patriots are 4-2 ATS this season.
• The Jets are 2-3 ATS this season.

Our final divisional matchup of the week ends with the unbeaten Patriots taking on the newly one-win Jets in Jersey. Tom Brady is fantastic, we all know that, but this season has been all about the Pats defense who have been completely unpenetrable every week. They have only allowed over 225 total yards to an opposing team twice this season and allowed no more than 10 points to an opposing team on the road. Their schedule has been far from difficult, but it is still an elite level of play regardless. They’re not just falling into good situations, they’re forcing them. The offense has had its share on injuries all over the place but the next man up strategy as been strong with this team as guys like Brandon Bolden and Jakobi Meyers have even stepped up at times. Though the Jets are coming into the game hot, the Pats will surely be able to cool them down with their defense.

As mentioned, the Jets looked like a different team with Sam Darnold last week and I have to admit that I was wrong about them getting much better with Darnold under center. Robby Anderson was able to find paydirt on a big play and Jamison Crowder was his busy self in the short passing game once again. I still think that this is an average at best football team though and have serious doubts about Adam Gase’s ability to run a competent offense. Their resurgence will likely end as soon as it began against the Pats shut-down defense. The Patriots haven’t allowed more than 14 points to an opponent in a single game this season, so even predicting the Jets could reach that mark is a compliment.

My Final Prediction: Patriots win 26-14

My Pick: Patriots -9.5, Under 44

Machine Pick: Patriots -9.5, Under 44